专题报告 2026-01-30 钢材：从地产约束到信用改善 报告要点： 近期，万科债务展期的平稳落地与监管层不再硬性要求房企上报"三条红线"指标，标志着房 地产行业运行逻辑发生了根本性逆转。黑色金属行业作为其核心上游，过去三年锚定的"信用 收缩-开工坍塌"负反馈环路正在解体。我们认为，当前黑色系品种正处于由悲观预期出清向 信用溢价修复的切换期，市场需重新评估下游需求韧性与定价结构变化。 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 赵 航（联系人） 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢 黑色金属研究 | 钢材 1.黑色顶压前行，结构呈现韧性 2026 年是"十五五"规划的开局之年。在 2025 年我国 GDP 突破 140 万亿元、经济 增速保持 5.0%的背景下，宏观运行正由总量扩张转向结构优化与动能切换。作为 国民经济的重要基础行业，黑色金属需求逻辑正经历从"地产主导"向"制造业与 新型基建驱动"的深刻重构。近期万科债券展期方案的成功落地，在阶段性缓释 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases and quality improves, with new and old drivers working together to push the market towards a bottoming out [2] - Key cities are anticipated to find a balance in sales by 2026, although long-tail cities will continue to drag down overall performance, albeit at a reduced rate [2] Summary by Sections 2025 Industry Review - The industry faced a significant downturn in sales and investment, with actual sales area data falling below previous lower predictions due to overly optimistic expectations for third and fourth-tier cities [8] - The decline in new construction and investment was more pronounced than expected, with new construction area growth at -20.4% and completion area growth at -18.1% [10][24] 2026 Industry Outlook - The focus will be on high-quality development, with key cities expected to stabilize sales. The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [7][9] - Investment growth is projected to be slow, with construction area growth expected between -5.8% and -10.2%, and corresponding investment growth between -4.0% and -12.5% [10][11] - The report predicts that the sales amount for 2026 could vary under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, with forecasts of 2.6%, -4.9%, and -11.4% respectively [10] Policy Focus - The main pressures on the industry will stem from investment growth challenges, with expectations for interest rate cuts and asset recovery policies to support the sector [10][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the implementation of policies related to interest rate reductions, asset recovery, and urban renewal [10][11] Sales and Investment Predictions - The report provides a detailed forecast for 2026, indicating that the total sales area is expected to stabilize between 7-8 billion square meters, driven by improving demand and urban renewal initiatives [44][50] - The sales amount and land acquisition trends are expected to reflect a continued focus on quality and strategic development in key urban areas [50][55]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴該等內 容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條作出。茲載列該公告如下，僅供參 閱。 萬科企業股份有限公司 董事會 中國，深圳，2026年1月29日 於本公告日期，本公司董事會成員包括：非執行董事黃力平先生、胡國斌先生及雷江松先生；執行 董事王蘊女士；以及獨立非執行董事廖子彬先生、林明彥先生、沈向洋博士及張懿宸先生。 * 僅供識別 CHINA VANKE CO., LTD.* 萬科企業股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：2202） 海外監管公告 万科企业股份有限公司 2021 年面向合格投资者公开发行住房租赁专项公司债券 （第一期）（品种二）分期兑付公告 证券代码：000002、299903、149358 证券简称：万科 A、万科 H 代、21 万科 02 公告编号：〈万〉2026-017 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，对公告的虚假 ...

每经AI快讯，1月29日，万科A(000002.SZ)公告称，其2021年面向合格投资者公开发行住房租赁专项公 司债券(第一期)(品种二)将于2026年1月30日实施固定兑付安排，并支付本期债券申报回售部分本金的 40%及其自2026年1月22日至2026年1月29日期间的利息。债权登记日为2026年1月29日。 ...

万科企业股份有限公司 2021 年面向合格投资者公开发行住房租赁专项公司债券 （第一期）（品种二）分期兑付公告 证券代码：000002、299903、149358 证券简称：万科 A、万科 H 代、21 万科 02 公告编号：〈万〉2026-017 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，对公告的虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏负连带责任。 重要提示： 分期兑付日：2026 年 1 月 30 日 计息期间：2026 年 1 月 22 日至 2026 年 1 月 29 日 根据《关于召开万科企业股份有限公司 2021 年面向合格投资者 公开发行住房租赁专项公司债券（第一期）（品种二）2026 年第一次 债券持有人会议的通知》《关于召开万科企业股份有限公司 2021 年面 向合格投资者公开发行住房租赁专项公司债券（第一期）（品种二） 2026 年第一次债券持有人会议的补充通知》《关于召开万科企业股份 有限公司 2021 年面向合格投资者公开发行住房租赁专项公司债券 （第一期）（品种二）2026 年第一次债券持有人会议的补充通知（二）》 1 （以下合称《会议通知》）及《关于万科企业股份有限公司 20 ...

Market Performance - The real estate development sector increased by 2.89% compared to the previous trading day, with Dayuecheng leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Top Gainers in Real Estate Sector - Dayuecheng (000031) closed at 3.73, up 10.03% with a trading volume of 909,000 shares and a transaction value of 329 million [1] - Sanxiang Impression (000863) closed at 6.70, up 10.02% with a trading volume of 570,600 shares and a transaction value of 374 million [1] - Deep Shenzhen A (000029) closed at 21.97, up 10.02% with a trading volume of 85,700 shares and a transaction value of 183 million [1] - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649) closed at 5.61, up 10.00% with a trading volume of 1,889,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.032 billion [1] - New Town Holdings (601155) closed at 17.85, up 9.98% with a trading volume of 464,600 shares and a transaction value of 812 million [1] Top Losers in Real Estate Sector - Yuehongyuan A (000573) closed at 4.44, down 8.45% with a trading volume of 1,597,200 shares and a transaction value of 719 million [2] - Hefei Urban Construction (002208) closed at 13.97, down 5.10% with a trading volume of 622,900 shares and a transaction value of 886 million [2] - Shunfa Hengneng (000631) closed at 4.09, down 4.66% with a trading volume of 718,800 shares and a transaction value of 302 million [2] Capital Flow in Real Estate Sector - The real estate development sector saw a net inflow of 1.225 billion in main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 598 million [2] - Main funds showed significant inflows in major companies such as Vanke A (000002) with a net inflow of 475 million, accounting for 15.58% [3] - Poly Development (600048) had a net inflow of 334 million, representing 10.82% of the total [3]

近日，建设银行（601939）、万科A、金风科技（002202）、电子城（600658）等头部企业，相继宣布 主动撤回或终止公募REITs的发行申请。 中国证券报记者了解到，近期多个公募REITs的"战略性撤退"，或是监管新规落地、市场环境变化及企 业自身战略调整共同作用的结果，也预示着公募REITs市场正从"扩容提速"转向更加注重资产质量、估 值逻辑深度重构的新发展阶段。 多家公司撤回REITs申报 1月23日，建设银行公告称，前期，该行附属公司建信住房作为原始权益人，以建信住房持有的保障性 租赁住房项目申报发行公募REITs。该项目于2024年3月获中国证券监督管理委员会和上海证券交易所 受理。为进一步整合项目资源，优化运营管理，该项目的基金管理人和专项计划管理人主动申请撤回申 报材料。截至2026年1月23日，该项目已终止申报审核流程。 图片来源：建设银行公告 建设银行表示，本次终止申报审核，不会对该行的经营活动和财务状况产生不利影响。 记者就该项目终止的原因、未来发展规划等问题向建设银行发函采访。截至记者发稿，该行未予以明确 回应。记者注意到，此次公募REITs撤回或正处于建信住房经营发展的关键阶段， ...

对比万科巅峰时期近2000亿元的现金储备，当前规模已缩水至三分之一，凸显其资金链的脆弱性。 为解决即时兑付缺口，万科再次获得深圳地铁的流动性支持。根据同步发布的关联交易公告，深圳地铁将以2.34%的年利率向万科提供不超过23.6亿元的三 年期借款，专项用于偿还公开市场债券本息。 1月27日，万科接连发布多份公告，引发市场高度关注。 此前，万科多笔境内债券到期后未能按时兑付本息，涉及金额达数十亿元，尽管公司提出展期方案，但多次债权人会议均未获通过，显示市场对其偿债能力 的担忧。 | 万科A：关于深铁集团向公司提供不超过23.6亿元借款暨关联交易的公告 | 借贷 | 2026-01-28 | | --- | --- | --- | | 万科A:关于在交易商协会被露《关于2022年度第五期中期票据贯限期内本息偿付安排的公告》的... | 其他 | 2026-01-28 | | AND AND AND TANI ANTERRETH | | AUSTRA | | 万科A:第二十届華事会第三十次会议决议公告oney.com eastmoney.com 董事会决议公告 | | 2026-01-28 | | 万科A：关于在交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector has experienced a significant surge in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][5][9]. Group 1: Real Estate Sector Performance - A-shares real estate ETF rose nearly 3%, while Hong Kong's property stocks surged over 6%, with notable increases in companies like Sunac China and Hongyang Real Estate, both rising over 20% [1][5]. - Specific stock performances included China Aoyuan up 27.4%, Sunac China up 23.3%, and Hongyang Real Estate up 22.58% [5][6]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector suggests a clean clearing of chips, with low valuations attracting investor interest [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Signals - The rise in real estate stocks coincides with a notable increase in the liquor sector, indicating structural volatility in the market as these sectors are seen as lagging behind in previous downturns [1][9]. - The recent surge in commodities, including gold and copper, reflects heightened inflation expectations, which could impact sectors like AI negatively [2][9]. - The performance of 30-year treasury futures has been unexpectedly strong, suggesting a complex market narrative that does not align with traditional economic theories regarding inflation and bond prices [3][9]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - Reports indicate that several real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" metrics monthly, suggesting a more lenient regulatory environment [7]. - Analysts believe that recent policy adjustments, such as the reduction of the value-added tax on second-hand homes and the lowering of commercial property loan down payments, may support a stabilization in the real estate market [7].

Market Overview - As of January 29, A-share major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.1% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.01% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20,349 billion yuan, an increase of 1,042 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] - Over 2,400 stocks in the market experienced gains [2] Gold Market - International gold prices reached new highs, with spot gold surpassing $5,500 per ounce, peaking at $5,598.75 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 28% [10][11] - Gold stocks surged, with China Gold achieving five consecutive trading limits [9][12] - Despite the surge, China Gold warned investors about potential risks, stating that its main business remains unchanged and projecting a net profit decrease of 55% to 65% for 2025 [12] AI Application Sector - AI application stocks saw a significant rally, with Keda Xunfei (科大讯飞) hitting the daily limit up after a positive earnings forecast [5][6] - Keda Xunfei expects a net profit of 785 million to 950 million yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 40% to 70% year-on-year [8] - The company reported over a 20% increase in R&D investment, emphasizing its commitment to core technology autonomy [8] - Analysts from CITIC Securities expressed optimism about the AI application and computing power sectors, anticipating a surge in AI-native applications and the need for increased computing power [8] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector experienced a rebound, with stocks like I Love My Home and Shenzhen Deep Housing hitting daily limits [14] - Shenzhen Deep Housing projected a net profit of 80.8 million to 121 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 177 million yuan the previous year [14] - Hong Kong-listed property stocks also saw significant gains, with notable increases in companies like Contemporary Land and China Aoyuan [14][16] - The restructuring of debts among leading real estate companies is progressing, with Vanke successfully extending three domestic bonds and other companies like Country Garden and Sunac China entering execution phases for debt restructuring [17] - Experts suggest that a new financing model for real estate is emerging, focusing on cash flow safety and operational efficiency [18]