证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 08 月 15 日 华峰化学（002064.SZ） 2024 上半年业绩符合预期，公司持续深化产业链一体化 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 25,884 | 26,298 | 28,295 | 32,977 | 35,835 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -8.8 | 1.6 | 7.6 | 16.5 | 8.7 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,844 | 2,478 | 2,908 | 3,559 | 3,938 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -64.2 | -12.9 | 17.3 | 22.4 | 10.7 | | ROE（%） | 12.3 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 11.9 | 12.0 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.57 ...

证券代码： 002064 证券简称：华峰化学 华峰化学股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | |----------------|-----------------------------------| | 投资者关系活动 | √ 特定对象调研 | | 类别 | □ 媒体采访 □ | | | □ 新闻发布会 | | | □ 现场参观 | | | □ 其他 | | 参与单位名称及 | | | 人员姓名 | | | | 淡水泉投资、申万证券等 | | 时间 | 2024 年 8 月 14 日 (周三 | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | | 上市公司接待人 | | | 员姓名 | | | | 1. | | | 因？ | | | | | | | | | 2 | | | | | 投资者关系活动 | | | 主要内容介绍 | | | | | | | | | | 迈向寡头化、差异化。 | | | 3．目前氨纶下游客户库存情况如何？ | | | | | | 4．公司氨纶客户结构如何？ | | --- | |-------------------------------------------------- ...

公 司 研 究 华峰化学（002064.SZ）：业绩同比 增长，产能持续扩张 2024 年 8 月 14 日 强烈推荐/维持 华峰化学 公司报告 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 华峰化学发布 2024 年半年报：公司上半年实现营业收入 137.44 亿元， YoY+8.89%，归母净利润 15.18 亿元，YoY+11.74%。 公司新产能释放带动产销量增长，盈利水平相应提升。从收入端看，2024 年 上半年，公司氨纶、己二酸板块较去年同期有新产能释放，主要产品的产销量 均同比增长，带动公司营收实现增长。从利润端看，公司上半年综合毛利率同 比小幅下降 0.96 个百分点至 16.52%，但由于公司销售费用率、管理费用率等 略有下降，导致公司净利润取得增长。 产能持续扩张，强化规模优势。公司深耕聚氨酯行业多年，主要产品规模较大， 其中氨纶产能与产量均位居全球第二、中国第一，聚氨酯原液和己二酸产量均 为全国第一，拥有较强的规模优势。根据公司 2023 年年报数据，公司氨纶产 能 32.5 万吨（其中 10 万吨产能于 2024 年 7 月正式达产），目前仍有 20 万吨 差别化氨纶 ...

基础化工/化学纤维 公 司 研 究 华峰化学（002064.SZ） 2024 年 08 月 13 日 Q2 扣非归母环比增长，行业底部彰显龙头盈利韧性 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|--------------------------|--------------------------| | 金益腾（分析师） | 张晓锋（分析师） | 宋梓荣（联系人） | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | zhangxiaofeng@kysec.cn | songzirong@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790522080003 | 证书编号：S0790123070025 | Q2 扣非归母环比增长，行业底部彰显龙头盈利韧性，维持"买入"评级 2024 年 H1 公司实现营收 137.44 亿元，同比+8.89%，实现归母净利润 15.18 亿 元，同比+11.74%。对应 Q2 单季度，公司实现归母净利润 6.56 亿元，环比+22.13%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huafon Chemical (002064 SZ) [2][4] Core Views - Huafon Chemical's Q2 2024 profitability showed sequential improvement, with net profit increasing by 22% QoQ to 835 million yuan [1] - The company's integrated advantages are being strengthened through capacity expansion projects [2] - Despite weak spandex industry conditions in H1 2024, Huafon achieved revenue growth of 9% YoY to 13 744 billion yuan and net profit growth of 12% YoY to 1 518 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance H1 2024 Results - Revenue: 13 744 billion yuan (+9% YoY) [1] - Net profit: 1 518 billion yuan (+12% YoY) [1] - Gross margin: 16 52% (-0 97pct YoY) [1] - Net margin: 11 06% (+0 29pct YoY) [1] Q2 2024 Highlights - Revenue: 7 087 billion yuan (+10% YoY, +6% QoQ) [1] - Net profit: 835 million yuan (+15% YoY, +22% QoQ) [1] - Gross margin: 16 88% (+0 76pct QoQ) [1] - Net margin: 11 83% (+1 58pct QoQ) [1] Business Segments - Chemical fiber: 4 654 billion yuan revenue (-0 11% YoY), 14 97% gross margin (-0 71pct YoY) [1] - Chemical new materials: 3 036 billion yuan revenue (-0 11% YoY), 21 78% gross margin (-3 52pct YoY) [1] - Basic chemical products: 5 261 billion yuan revenue (+42 38% YoY), 15 45% gross margin (-1 87pct YoY) [1] Industry Conditions - Spandex industry faced oversupply with 105 000 tons/year new capacity added in H1 2024 [1] - Average spandex price: 27 994 yuan/ton (-16% YoY) [1] - PTMEG (spandex raw material) average price: 15 611 yuan/ton (-21% YoY) [1] - Adipic acid average price: 9 696 yuan/ton (-1% YoY) [1] Capacity Expansion - 1 15 million tons/year adipic acid expansion project (Phase VI) reached 92 06% of budget [2] - 300 000 tons/year differentiated spandex project reached 39 83% of budget [2] - PTMEG capacity adjustment: increased from 120 000 tons/year to 240 000 tons/year [2] Financial Projections 2024-2026 Estimates - Revenue: 29 255/33 093/35 506 billion yuan [3] - Net profit: 3 107/3 666/4 003 billion yuan [3] - EPS: 0 63/0 74/0 81 yuan [3] - PE ratio: 11 8/10 0/9 2x [3] Key Ratios - ROE: 11 7%/12 3%/11 9% [5] - Gross margin: 17 2%/17 7%/17 7% [5] - Net margin: 10 6%/11 1%/11 3% [5]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/化工/基础化工材料制品 证券研究报告 华峰化学（002064）公司半年报点评 2024 年 08 月 13 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|----------------| | 08[Table_StockInfo 月 09日收盘价（元）] | 7.53 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 5.58-8.55 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 4963/4952 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 37368/37288 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《23 年归母净利润同比下滑 | 12.85%，看好新 | | 项目投产带来的成长空间》 | 2024.04.24 | | 市场表现 | | [Table_QuoteInfo] 华峰化学 海通综指 -23.68% -15.68% -7.68% 0.32% 8.32% 2023/8 2023/11 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance in the first half of 2024, with revenue of 13.744 billion yuan (up 9% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1.518 billion yuan (up 12% year-on-year) [2] - The growth in performance is attributed to the gradual release of new production capacity for spandex and adipic acid, as well as enhanced economies of scale despite a slight decline in gross margin [2] - The demand for spandex is expected to remain strong in the second half of the year, with the company poised to benefit from industry recovery [2] - The company is a leading player in the global spandex, adipic acid, and polyurethane raw materials market, with significant scale, technology, and cost advantages [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.744 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit of 1.518 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year [2][3] - The company’s Q2 2024 revenue was 7.087 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase and a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase [2] - The gross margin slightly decreased by 1% compared to the previous year, indicating resilience in profitability despite market challenges [2] Market Outlook - The spandex demand is projected to continue its upward trend, supported by a 8.1% increase in per capita clothing consumption expenditure in China [2] - The company’s spandex sales volume in H1 2024 was approximately 190,000 tons, an 18% increase from the previous year [2] - The price gap for spandex has reached historical lows, but there are signs of recovery in Q3 2024 [2] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 3.049 billion yuan, 3.812 billion yuan, and 4.765 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.61, 0.77, and 0.96 yuan [2][3] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 12X, 10X, and 8X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][9]. Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with a focus on upstream PTMEG layout to solidify cost advantages. The demand for elastic fabrics is driving growth in spandex demand, and the industry supply-demand dynamics are continuously improving, positioning the company to benefit significantly [7][8]. - The company has adjusted its 2024 EPS forecast to 0.64 CNY (previously 0.59 CNY) and maintains EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 at 0.72 CNY and 0.83 CNY, respectively. The target price for 2024 is set at 9.90 CNY, based on a PE ratio of 15.47 [8][9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: Revenue of 25,884 million CNY, Net Profit of 2,844 million CNY - 2023A: Revenue of 26,298 million CNY, Net Profit of 2,478 million CNY - 2024E: Revenue of 27,778 million CNY, Net Profit of 3,183 million CNY - 2025E: Revenue of 30,988 million CNY, Net Profit of 3,557 million CNY - 2026E: Revenue of 35,619 million CNY, Net Profit of 4,128 million CNY [6][10]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Net Asset Return (ROE) is projected to be 11.7% in 2024, 12.0% in 2025, and 12.7% in 2026 [6][10]. - The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is 15.08 for 2023, decreasing to 11.74 in 2024 and further to 9.05 in 2026 [6][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a leader in the spandex, adipic acid, and raw liquid industries, leveraging its cost advantages and scale to maintain profitability despite price pressures in key products [8][9]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in BDO and PTMEG, which is expected to further enhance its cost advantages [8][9].

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.11 证 券 研 究 报 告 -28% -19% -11% -2% 6% 15% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 本报告导读： [Table_Market] 交易数据 投资要点： [Table_PicQuote] 52周股价走势图 [Table_Report] 相关报告 [当前价格： Table_CurPrice] 7.53 24Q2 业绩符合预期，产业链逐步完善 华峰化学(002064) 基础化工 [Table_Industry] /原材料 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-----------|-------| | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 9.90 | | | 上次预测: | 9.90 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------------|-- ...

核心观点 ⚫ 中期业绩同比增长：公司披露 2024 年中报，报告期内实现营业收入 137.44 亿元， 同比增长 8.89%；实现归母净利润 15.18 亿元，同比增长 11.74%。其中二季度实现 营业收入 70.87 亿元，同比增长 10.2%；实现归母净利润 8.35 亿元，同比增长 14.86%。收入与利润实现同比增长的主要原因是公司上半年主要产品氨纶与己二酸 的产能得到有效释放，产销量同比增长。 ⚫ 景气底部优势明显：根据我们跟踪，2024 年上半年的氨纶与己二酸单位价差水平相 比 2023 年同期均有明显下降，其中氨纶同比减少约 1400 元/吨，己二酸同比减少约 1200 元/吨。在行业形势如此严峻的情况下，公司仍通过以量补价、优化成本的方式 实现了逆势增长，凸显了公司在行业中的强大竞争力。 ⚫ 新项目有序推进：公司 30 万吨差别化氨纶项目后续还有产能持续释放，同时 110 万 吨天然气一体化项目与 24 万吨 PTMEG 项目也已开始建设。其中氨纶项目将继续推 动公司核心产品产销量增长，天然气一体化项目与 PTMEG 项目则将深化公司氨纶 产业链一体化优势，进一步提升公司成本竞争力。 盈利预 ...