Group 1: Company Overview and Market Position - Hikvision has a significant market share in the security sector, with approximately 20% in overseas markets and 40% in domestic markets, indicating substantial growth potential in international markets [6]. - The company’s overseas business is primarily divided into channel (70-80%) and project (20-30%) types, with developing countries accounting for about 70% of overseas operations [6]. Group 2: Product Innovations and Digital Transformation - Hikvision recently launched a fusion spectrum coal quality rapid analyzer, which can analyze key indicators of coal quality in just 2 minutes, enhancing efficiency across the coal supply chain [5]. - The market potential for the coal quality rapid testing project is estimated to reach several billion yuan in the coming years, showcasing the company's commitment to digital transformation [5]. Group 3: Future Growth and Strategic Focus - The company anticipates that its digital transformation products will generate significant revenue, with projections of over 100 million yuan from the coal quality rapid testing product by 2024 [6]. - Hikvision is focusing on balancing personalized customer needs with standardized production processes to enhance efficiency and maintain competitive advantage [6]. Group 4: AI Integration and Technological Advancements - AI is a core capability for Hikvision, enhancing the functionality of various hardware products and expanding their application scenarios [8]. - The company employs a unique approach to AI training, utilizing high-quality, application-specific data to optimize algorithms for specific industry needs [8].

证券代码：002415 证券简称：海康威视 公告编号：2024-059 号 杭州海康威视数字技术股份有限公司 关于为子公司提供担保的进展公告 2024 年 11 月 22 日，公司控股子公司杭州海康机器人股份有限公司为其全 资子公司 Hikrobot Europe B.V.在汇丰银行（中国）有限公司杭州分行办理额度不 超过 24,977.60 欧元的保函业务提供连带责任保证，保函到期日为 2025 年 8 月 1 日。上述保函所担保的业务范围、期限、费用等内容以相关法律文书或凭证为准。 上述担保在公司股东大会审议通过的担保额度范围内。 三、累计对外担保及逾期担保的数量 截至目前，公司及控股子公司实际担保余额为 394,808.44 万元，占公司 2023 年末经审计净资产的 5.17%，全部为对合并报表范围内子公司的担保。 公司及控股子公司不存在其他对外担保事项，不存在逾期对外担保、涉及诉 讼的对外担保及因担保被判决败诉而应承担损失的情形。 特此公告。 杭州海康威视数字技术股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、担保情况概述 杭州海康 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 649.91 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.06%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.40% to 81.08 billion yuan [3] - The gross margin remained stable at 44.76% for the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight decrease to 44.25% in Q3 2024. The profit was impacted by foreign exchange losses amounting to approximately 210 million yuan for the first three quarters [3][4] - The company is focusing on the synergy between security business and scenario digitalization, leveraging multi-dimensional perception, artificial intelligence, and big data to enhance efficiency and reduce costs for enterprises and government [5] Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 141.09 billion, 164.60 billion, and 196.11 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20.3, 17.4, and 14.6 times based on the closing price on November 4, 2024 [1][7] - The expected revenue growth rates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 7.5%, 12.1%, and 13.9% respectively, while the net profit growth rates are projected at 0.0%, 16.7%, and 19.1% [7][8]

证券代码：002415 证券简称：海康威视 公告编号：2024-058 号 杭州海康威视数字技术股份有限公司 关于为子公司提供担保的进展公告 合同项下业务履行期限届满之日起三年。相关合同所担保的业务范围、期限、费 用等内容以相关法律文书或凭证为准。 上述担保在公司股东大会审议通过的担保额度范围内。 三、累计对外担保及逾期担保的数量 截至本公告披露日，公司及控股子公司实际担保余额为 386,264.18 万元，占 公司 2023 年末经审计净资产的 5.06%，全部为对合并报表范围内子公司的担保。 公司及控股子公司不存在其他对外担保事项，不存在逾期对外担保、涉及诉 讼的对外担保及因担保被判决败诉而应承担损失的情形。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、担保情况概述 杭州海康威视数字技术股份有限公司（以下简称"海康威视"或"公司"） 于 2024 年 4 月 18 日召开第五届董事会第二十次会议，审议通过了《关于为子公 司提供担保的议案》，同意公司及控股子公司为其下属全资或控股子公司提供不 超过 166.75 亿元人民币的担保额度。上述事项于 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the PBG revenue growth has turned positive, supported by government funding in sectors such as water conservancy and disaster management. This improvement in funding is expected to enhance business flexibility [2][3]. - Despite a challenging domestic and international environment impacting revenue growth, the company has managed to stabilize its cost structure, with a gross margin of 44.51% in Q3 2024 [2][3]. - The report projects revenue and net profit growth for the years 2024 to 2026, estimating revenues of 98 billion, 107.9 billion, and 119.3 billion respectively, with net profits of 14.5 billion, 16.8 billion, and 19.7 billion [3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the expected operating revenue is 98,024 million, with a year-over-year growth rate of 9.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 14,503 million, reflecting a 2.8% increase year-over-year [1]. - The report indicates a stable cost structure, with operating expenses growing at a slower pace and personnel size remaining stable [2]. - The company's financial metrics show a projected EPS of 1.57 for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 18.4 and a P/B ratio of 3.2 [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision with a target price of 35 CNY [6][4]. Core Insights - Hikvision's Q3 2024 revenue reached 23.78 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3 billion CNY, down 13.4% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 64.99 billion CNY, up 6.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 8.1 billion CNY, down 8.4% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company clarified recent adjustments in its regional R&D structure and announced changes in key management positions during its earnings call on October 26. The report suggests that these organizational changes could help the company adapt to new opportunities and challenges in the market [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the effectiveness of the organizational adjustments and the turning point in domestic fixed asset investment cycles [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 23.78 billion CNY, with a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year. The net profit for the same period was 3 billion CNY, reflecting a decline of 13.4% year-on-year. Cumulatively, for Q1-Q3 2024, revenue was 64.99 billion CNY, up 6.1% year-on-year, while net profit was 8.1 billion CNY, down 8.4% year-on-year [1][4]. - The report projects a revenue of 94.4 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.67%, and a net profit of 13.19 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 6.52% compared to 2023 [5][4]. Business Segments - The PBG (Public Business Group) segment is expected to generate 14.82 billion CNY in 2024, down 22.7% from 2021 due to reduced capital expenditures by local governments. However, government support for infrastructure projects may signal a potential recovery [2][3]. - The EBG (Enterprise Business Group) showed slight growth, while the SMBG (Small and Medium Business Group) faced significant declines due to inventory adjustments with distributors [3][4]. Market Outlook - The report highlights the need to observe when government investments may reach a turning point and the effectiveness of the company's strategic adjustments in response to market conditions [2][3]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with domestic demand showing weakness and investment confidence needing improvement [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Hikvision (002415 SZ) [1][3] Core Views - Hikvision's Q3 2024 revenue reached 237 82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0 33%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 30 44 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13 37% [1] - The company's performance is expected to reach an inflection point due to ongoing fiscal policies and cost reduction efforts, with fiscal policies potentially driving business recovery [1] - The report forecasts Hikvision's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 985 6 billion yuan, 1,093 13 billion yuan, and 1,225 72 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS of 1 54 yuan, 1 80 yuan, and 2 08 yuan [1] Business Segment Analysis PBG Business - PBG revenue grew positively in Q3 2024, supported by government funding in areas such as water conservancy, disaster prevention, and emergency management [1] - Digitization-related businesses like traffic management and government governance continue to increase their share in PBG [1] EBG Business - EBG revenue saw slight year-on-year growth in Q3 2024, driven by active demand for digital transformation aimed at cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1] - Growth in the smart building sector remains negative, while industries like petrochemicals, coal, education, and finance continue to grow [1] SMBG Business - SMBG revenue declined significantly in Q3 2024 due to weak social demand and tight capital conditions, leading to inventory reduction efforts [1] Overseas Business - Overseas revenue continued to grow in Q3 2024, albeit at a slower pace, with the Middle East and Africa showing faster growth while the US and Canada remained in decline [1] Innovation Business - Innovation business growth slowed in Q3 2024 compared to the first half of the year, with micro-imaging, automotive electronics, and fire safety showing faster growth [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are projected at 10 32%, 10 91%, and 12 13%, respectively [4] - Net profit growth rates for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 0 48%, 17 27%, and 15 72%, respectively [4] - Gross margins are expected to remain stable, ranging from 44 44% to 45 33% over the forecast period [4] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 20x, 17x, and 15x, respectively [1][4] - The PB ratio for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 3 6x, 3 2x, and 2 9x, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 47.25 CNY based on a 27x PE valuation for 2025 [2][4][9] Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue remained flat year-on-year at 23.78 billion CNY, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 13% to 3.04 billion CNY. For the first three quarters, revenue grew by 6% to 64.99 billion CNY, but net profit fell by 8% to 8.11 billion CNY [1] - The report highlights a divergence in domestic business performance, with the company actively adjusting SMBG inventory. PBG showed positive revenue growth in Q3, particularly in digital governance-related sectors such as water management and emergency management, while SMBG experienced a significant decline due to inventory reduction efforts [1] - The overseas business and innovation sectors continued to grow, with the overseas main business maintaining growth albeit at a slower pace. The demand for project-based sales is increasing, especially in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.52 CNY, 1.75 CNY, and 2.01 CNY for 2024-2026, respectively, with adjustments made to revenue and expense ratios [2][9] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 96.25 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8%. The operating profit is expected to be 16.16 billion CNY, reflecting a slight increase of 1% [7][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 14.04 billion CNY in 2024, showing a slight decrease of 1% compared to 2023 [7][9]

海康威视（002415.SZ） 优于大市 中期政策预期向好，长期数字化转型打开增长空间 3Q24 公司营收环比增长 1.67%，短期业务增速放缓。公司前三季度实现营收 649.91 亿元(YoY+6.1%)，扣非归母净利润 81.51(YoY-3.67%)，毛利率 44.76(YoY-0.09pct)。3Q24 公司实现营收 237.82 亿元(YoY+0.33%,QoQ +1.67%)；归母净利润 30.44 亿元(YoY-13.37%，QoQ-3.32%），扣非归母净 利润 29.08 亿元(YoY-15.11%，QoQ-16.50%），毛利率 44.51%(YoY-0.08pct， QoQ-0.27pct)，国内需求较为疲软，业绩增速短期回落。 EBG 与 PBG 三季度收入正增长，SMBG 短期承压。EBG 单三季度同比小幅增长， 降本增效为目的的企业数字化需求保持韧性；PBG 单三季度收入正增长，水 利水务、防灾救灾、应急管理等业务得到国债支撑，与数字化治理相关的交 通管理、政府治理业务占比持续提升；受社会需求疲软、资金面紧张等影响， SMBG 三季度负增长，公司主动对经销商降库存以缓解经销商存货占 ...

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机 2024 年 10 月 28 日 海康威视 (002415) ——需求承压下显韧性，勤修内功储备弹性 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 28 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 30.61 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 37.75/24.71 | | 市净率 | 3.7 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 2.94 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 278,735 | | 上证指数 / 深证成指 | 3,322.20/10,685.89 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | | | | 每股净资产（元） ...