Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 102% in 2024, reaching a net profit of 4.455 billion yuan [1][4]. - The integrated business model has strengthened, with the company entering production in Guinea and securing mining rights for its own bauxite mines in Guangxi [3][4]. - The company has committed to a cash dividend of 1.85 billion yuan for 2024, representing a payout ratio of 41.4%, and plans to maintain a minimum dividend payout ratio of 30% over the next three years [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 28.089 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while the net profit reached 4.455 billion yuan, reflecting a 102% increase [1][5]. - The average aluminum price in 2024 was 20,000 yuan per ton, up 8.2% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability despite rising production costs [2][5]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 was 7.367 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 7.925 billion yuan in 2025 [5][12]. Production and Cost Analysis - The company produced 1.1759 million tons of aluminum in 2024, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 4.195 billion yuan from the electrolytic aluminum segment [2][3]. - The alumina production reached 2.2789 million tons, with a significant increase in average selling price by 40% year-on-year, leading to a net profit of 1.78 billion yuan from the alumina segment [2][3]. - The production cost of alumina increased by only 2%, while the average selling price rose significantly, indicating strong pricing power [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company expects a favorable supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum in 2025, driven by new domestic policies and supply constraints [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.686 billion yuan, 5.594 billion yuan, and 6.019 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.4, 6.2, and 5.8 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 28.09 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.455 billion yuan, a significant increase of 102.03%. The non-recurring profit was approximately 1.78 billion yuan, leading to a non-recurring net profit of 4.309 billion yuan, up 128.80% year-on-year. The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been raised, with expected figures of 4.685 billion, 5.515 billion, and 6.163 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.2%, 17.7%, and 11.8% [4][5][6]. Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of Tianshan Aluminum is 35.261 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 31.305 billion yuan. The current stock price is 7.58 yuan, with a 52-week high of 9.88 yuan and a low of 6.08 yuan. The total share capital is 4.652 billion shares, with 4.130 billion shares in circulation. The turnover rate over the past three months is 72.45% [1][4]. Performance Metrics - The company’s revenue is projected to increase from 28.089 billion yuan in 2024 to 29.538 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 22.6% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 15.9% [8][10][12]. Growth Drivers - Tianshan Aluminum is enhancing its industrial chain by establishing a self-sufficient supply of bauxite and expanding its production capacity in alumina and electrolytic aluminum. The company has obtained mining rights for local bauxite in Guangxi and is progressing with a 1 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to increase significantly, contributing to the company's growth potential [5][6]. Shareholder Returns - In 2024, the company distributed cash dividends totaling 1.845 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 41.42%. The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, ensuring a cash dividend of no less than 30% of the annual net profit for the next three years. Additionally, a share buyback plan is in place, with an estimated repurchase of approximately 20 million shares, accounting for 0.43% of the total share capital [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 28.089 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.455 billion yuan, a significant increase of 102.03%. The non-recurring profit was approximately 178 million yuan, leading to a non-recurring net profit of 4.309 billion yuan, up 128.80% year-on-year. The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been raised, with expected figures of 4.685 billion, 5.515 billion, and 6.163 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of +5.2%, +17.7%, and +11.8% [4][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The total market capitalization of Tianshan Aluminum is 35.261 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 31.305 billion yuan. The current stock price is 7.58 yuan, with a 52-week high of 9.88 yuan and a low of 6.08 yuan. The company has a total share capital of 4.652 billion shares, with a circulating share capital of 4.130 billion shares. The turnover rate over the past three months is 72.45% [1][8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.01, 1.19, and 1.32 yuan respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.3, 6.2, and 5.5 times [4][8] Growth and Dividend Strategy - Tianshan Aluminum is enhancing its industrial chain by establishing a self-sufficient supply of bauxite and expanding its production capacity in alumina and electrolytic aluminum. The company has obtained mining rights for local bauxite in Guangxi and is progressing with a 1 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to increase significantly [5][6] - In 2024, the company distributed cash dividends totaling 1.845 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 41.42%. The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, ensuring a cash dividend ratio of no less than 30% of the annual net profit for the next three years [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved record high performance in 2024, with a revenue of 28.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.46 billion yuan, an increase of 102.0% year-on-year [1][10]. - The integrated advantages of the company continue to strengthen, with significant improvements in the profitability of alumina and electrolytic aluminum [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance - In 2024, Tianshan Aluminum produced 1.176 million tons of aluminum ingots, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while alumina production reached 2.279 million tons, up 7.6% year-on-year [2][20]. - The gross profit margin for electrolytic aluminum increased to 3,911 yuan per ton, up 474 yuan per ton year-on-year, and for alumina, it reached 1,016 yuan per ton, up 944 yuan per ton year-on-year [2][20]. 2. Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, and a net profit of 1.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.4% [1][24]. - The main contributors to profit growth in Q4 were the increase in gross profit driven by rising aluminum and alumina prices [24][26]. 3. Future Outlook - The company has completed its integrated layout, achieving self-sufficiency in prebaked anodes and alumina, which enhances its raw material security and stabilizes performance [3][34]. - Tianshan Aluminum is strategically expanding its production capacity in Indonesia and Guinea, which will further secure resource supply and enhance its competitive position [3][36][37]. 4. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.13 billion yuan, 5.55 billion yuan, and 6.05 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 7, 6, and 6 [4][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum Industry (002532.SZ) [2][4] Core Views - The company's net profit has doubled due to rising prices of main products, with a significant increase in both revenue and profit margins [4] - The company achieved a total revenue of 28.09 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.06% year-on-year, while net profit reached 4.45 billion yuan, an increase of 102.03% year-on-year [4] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in Q4 2024, with a revenue of 7.29 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.37 billion yuan, up 141.43% year-on-year [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 23.27%, an increase of 9.17 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 15.86%, an increase of 8.25 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The production of electrolytic aluminum reached 1.18 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1%, while alumina production was 2.28 million tons, up 7.55% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 19,800 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of about 6%, and the average selling price of self-produced alumina was approximately 4,000 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of about 40% [4] Industry Position and Strategy - The company has a significant advantage in its full industry chain development, achieving 100% self-sufficiency in core raw materials such as alumina and prebaked anodes [4] - The company has enhanced its supply chain autonomy with domestic and overseas resource guarantees, including its own bauxite mines in Guangxi and projects in Guinea and Indonesia [4] - The report emphasizes the company's technological advancements in high-purity aluminum production and its strategic partnerships in the downstream processing sector [4] Future Earnings Forecast - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) is 1.03 yuan for 2025 and 1.22 yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.39 and 6.24 times based on the closing price on April 18 [4][5]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The aluminum oxide and bauxite market is currently experiencing a significant structural adjustment, with prices expected to rise in 2024 but potentially decline in 2025 due to increased production capacity in regions like Guangxi and Shanxi [3] - The company anticipates that the overall industry losses will not persist for long, as domestic bauxite supply still heavily relies on imports, which have seen a price decrease compared to last year [3] Group 2: Project Updates - The company has successfully completed the acquisition of three bauxite mines in Indonesia, which will enter the mining phase this year, providing raw materials for future alumina production [4] - The Guangxi bauxite mine has received mining rights and plans to extract approximately 500,000 tons in 2025, with adjustments based on market supply and demand [5] Group 3: Production and Sales - The high-purity aluminum segment is expected to see a 50% year-on-year increase in sales in 2024, with ongoing efforts to develop new customers and reduce existing inventory [4] - The company has an annual production capacity of 180,000 tons for aluminum foil, with plans to ramp up production in 2025 to approximately 150,000 tons [4] Group 4: Financial Strategy - The company aims to reduce its asset-liability ratio by about 5 percentage points in 2024, targeting a stable ratio of around 40% in the coming years [4] - The company commits to distributing at least 30% of its distributable profits as cash dividends to shareholders annually from 2025 to 2027 [4] Group 5: Environmental Goals - The company has set a carbon peak target, aiming for a 13.5% reduction in energy consumption per unit of output and an 18% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions per unit product by the end of 2025, compared to 2021 levels [7] - By 2030, the proportion of renewable energy used in electrolytic aluminum production is expected to reach 30% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Outperform the Market" [4][33] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from its full industry chain advantages, with smelting profits being fully released. In 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102% [1][6] - The increase in profits is primarily due to rising aluminum prices and the complete self-sufficiency in alumina, with alumina sales gross profit reaching 2.12 billion yuan, an increase of 2 billion yuan year-on-year [1][6] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.85 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 41.4% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 28.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.46 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 102% [1][3] - The operating cash flow reached 5.22 billion yuan, an increase of 33.3% [1][6] - The company’s main products saw significant production increases, with electrolytic aluminum production reaching 1.176 million tons, the highest level in recent years, and alumina production increasing to 2.28 million tons, up by 160,000 tons year-on-year [1][6] Product Margins - The selling price of self-produced aluminum ingots in 2024 was 17,493 yuan per ton, an increase of 948 yuan per ton year-on-year, while the cost was 13,582 yuan per ton, up by 474 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross margin of 3,912 yuan per ton, an increase of 474 yuan per ton [2][7] - The selling price of alumina was 3,505 yuan per ton, an increase of 992 yuan per ton year-on-year, with a cost of 2,488 yuan per ton, up by 48 yuan per ton, leading to a gross margin of 1,016 yuan per ton, an increase of 945 yuan per ton [2][7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 estimated at 4.81 billion yuan, 5.70 billion yuan, and 6.13 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.0%, 18.5%, and 7.5% [3][33] - The company is also set to enhance its resource security by starting the construction of 240,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity and has obtained mining rights for alumina resources in Guangxi [2][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant profit growth, with a 102.03% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, driven by rising alumina prices and production increases [6] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its full industry chain layout, which mitigates the impact of fluctuating alumina prices [6] - New projects in Guinea and Guangxi are set to enhance the company's resource base and production capacity, contributing to future profit growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 280.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.06% year-on-year, while net profit reached 44.55 billion yuan [6] - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 60 billion yuan, 64 billion yuan, and 62 billion yuan respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve, with projections of 28.6% in 2025 and 26.0% in 2026 [7] Market Comparison - The company's stock has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute returns of -19.93% over the past month [4] - The report highlights the company's resilience in maintaining profitability despite market fluctuations, particularly in the alumina and electrolytic aluminum sectors [6] Production and Capacity - The company produced 1.1759 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2024, a 1% increase year-on-year, and 2.2789 million tons of alumina, a 7.55% increase [6] - New mining projects in Guinea and Guangxi are expected to significantly boost the company's production capacity and resource availability [6]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 天山铝业(002532.SZ) 2025 年 04 月 20 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：7.35 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 46% 57% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 天山铝业 沪深300 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅(%) -19.93 -14.53 -15.71 相对涨幅(%) -14.07 -10.95 -14.67 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《天山铝业：量价齐升创佳绩》， 2025.1.22 2.《天山铝业（002532.SZ）：受益于 氧化铝价格走强，24H1 归母实现翻倍 增长》，2024.8.20 天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明显 投资要点 | [Table_Base] 股票数据 | | [Table_Finance ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum achieved significant growth in its annual performance, with a revenue of 28.089 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 102.03% to 4.455 billion yuan [5] - The company is progressing in its resource layout, with plans for overseas projects in Indonesia and Guinea to enhance its bauxite self-sufficiency and reduce costs [8][9] - The aluminum foil business is also expanding, with production lines ramping up to leverage cost advantages [9] Financial Summary - In 2024, Tianshan Aluminum's revenue is projected at 28.089 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.455 billion yuan, and a significant increase in net profit expected in Q1 2025 to 1.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46% [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 23.3% in 2024 to 27.9% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.08 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.8, suggesting the stock is undervalued [7][9]