Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.75, compared to the last closing price of 16.21 [1]. Core Views - The company experienced short-term revenue pressure, with a focus on new product launches to drive growth. The first half of 2024 saw revenue of 1.628 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 402 million, down 8.36% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report highlights that the company's pre-mixed beverage revenue was 1.431 billion, down 1.42% year-on-year, with a significant decline in online channel revenue [2][5]. - The company is expected to see improved performance in the second half of the year as the pressure from high base effects eases, and new product launches are anticipated to contribute positively to sales [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.628 billion, a decrease of 1.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 402 million, down 8.36% year-on-year. The second quarter alone saw a revenue of 826 million, down 7.25% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 7.28% [2][4]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 70.08%, an increase of 4.19 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs and price increases [2][5]. Future Projections - The report projects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 3.386 billion, 3.732 billion, and 4.170 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 834 million, 927 million, and 1.044 billion [4][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 0.79, 0.88, and 0.99, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22, 20, and 18 respectively [4][5]. Product Strategy - The company is focusing on new product launches, including a new whiskey product expected by the end of the year, which is anticipated to open up long-term growth opportunities [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "清爽" product line in penetrating the beer market and targeting consumers aged 25 and above [2][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.628 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 402 million yuan, down 8.36% year-on-year [4] - The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 826 million yuan, a decrease of 7.25% year-on-year, with a net profit of 233 million yuan, down 7.28% year-on-year [4] - The company expects revenue growth of 1.7%, 13.3%, and 13.6% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit projections of 800 million yuan, 910 million yuan, and 1.07 billion yuan for the same years [4] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 71.8%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company’s revenue from pre-mixed drinks declined by 8.3% in Q2 2024, while other business segments saw a growth of 0.3% [4] - The company’s offline, digital retail, and ready-to-drink channels generated revenues of 1.43 billion yuan, 160 million yuan, and 20 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +7.0%, -35.7%, and -42.7% [4] - The company’s net profit margin for H1 2024 was 28.2%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [4] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.32 billion yuan in 2024, 3.76 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.27 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 796 million yuan, 912 million yuan, and 1.074 billion yuan [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 23 times [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's second-quarter pre-mixed beverage revenue declined by 8% year-on-year, which was better than the expected 15% drop [1] - The overall gross margin improved significantly due to reduced commercial discounts and lower raw material costs [3] - The company's net profit margin remained stable, with sales expense ratios expected to maintain between 20% to 30% [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Offline channels experienced a 7% growth in the first half of the year, while online sales saw a decline of over 30% [1] - The new product "Qing Ti Jasmine" quickly entered the top three in sales among all flavors [2] - The "Strong Refreshing" product accounted for 50% of sales, indicating a high repurchase rate [2] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The North China region showed significant growth due to fewer competitors and expansion opportunities in lower-tier cities [1] - The East China region faced declines primarily due to the impact of e-commerce [1] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand and product capabilities, with a strong emphasis on marketing and channel expansion [4][5] - The company aims to penetrate lower-tier markets with cost-effective products while maintaining a strong presence in first and second-tier cities [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the operating environment remains challenging, but they expect the decline in online sales to narrow in the second half of the year [1] - The company anticipates stable or slightly increased revenue and profit for the year, with a market capitalization of 18.5 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 23 [38] Other Important Information - The company has plans to launch its own whiskey brand, targeting young consumers with a focus on affordability and social consumption scenarios [35][37] - The whiskey market in China is still in its early stages, with significant growth potential [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the online sales recovery? - Management expects the decline in online sales to narrow in the second half of the year, indicating a potential recovery [1] Question: How does the company plan to address competition in the low-alcohol beverage market? - The company is focusing on product innovation and marketing strategies to differentiate itself from competitors [20][22] Question: What is the company's strategy for the whiskey segment? - The company plans to introduce a whiskey brand aimed at young consumers, leveraging its experience in the pre-mixed beverage market [35][37]

Summary of the Conference Call for 百润股份 (Bairun Co., Ltd.) Company Overview - **Company**: 百润股份 (Bairun Co., Ltd.) - **Industry**: Pre-mixed alcoholic beverages (预调酒) Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - The company reported a second-quarter revenue decline of approximately 8% year-on-year, which was better than the expected 15% decline, leading to a rebound in stock price [1] - Offline channels experienced a 7% positive growth in the first half of the year, while online sales saw a decline of over 30% [1] - The company anticipates that the decline in online sales will narrow in the second half of the year [1] Market Dynamics - The company is focusing on promoting its products in specific scenarios such as barbecues and gatherings, supported by new advertising campaigns featuring celebrity endorsements [2] - The overall channel inventory is approximately three months, with a 10% sales decline reported in July [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved significantly due to reduced commercial discounts and previous price increases in strong provinces [3] - The company maintains a marketing expense ratio of 20% to 30%, with management expenses rising mainly due to employee compensation and depreciation [3] Industry Analysis - The report provides a detailed review of the pre-mixed beverage industry over the past 20 years, highlighting the company's growth in product, brand, and channel capabilities [4] - The pre-mixed beverage market faced challenges from beer price reductions and changing consumer habits, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [6][7] - The company initially struggled in the night market but later capitalized on opportunities as competitors faced difficulties [9][10] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has evolved, with many non-pre-mixed beverage companies entering the market, but most have failed [12] - The company has successfully expanded its market share from 11% to 21% between 2011 and 2013, taking advantage of competitors' weaknesses [10] Product Development - The company has launched new products like 微醺 (Weixun) and 强爽 (Qiangshuang), targeting different consumer preferences and consumption scenarios [17][19] - The company is exploring the whiskey segment, planning to launch a new brand aimed at younger consumers, with a focus on affordability and social consumption [35][36] Future Outlook - The company expects its revenue and profit to remain stable or see slight growth this year, with a market capitalization of 18.5 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 23 [38] - The potential market size for the pre-mixed beverage industry is estimated at around 20 billion, indicating room for growth [31] Additional Important Insights - The company has faced challenges in maintaining consumer interest due to marketing fatigue and a lack of clear consumption scenarios [14][15] - The introduction of new products has been strategically timed to align with market recovery phases [19] - The company is cautious about its expansion into the whiskey market, focusing on brand awareness before aggressive sales strategies [37] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the company's performance, market dynamics, competitive landscape, product development, and future outlook.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.63 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, and a net profit of 400 million yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. Q2 2024 revenue was 830 million yuan, also down 7.3% year-on-year [2]. - The pre-mixed cocktail segment experienced a short-term revenue decline, with H1 revenue at 1.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4%. The company is focusing on expanding consumption scenarios and enhancing brand marketing [2]. - The gross profit margin improved to 70.1% in H1 2024, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 71.8%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points [2]. - The company is enhancing its product matrix for pre-mixed cocktails and is set to launch a new whiskey product in Q4 2024, aiming to become a leader in the domestic whiskey market [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was 1.63 billion yuan, with a net profit of 400 million yuan. Q2 2024 revenue was 830 million yuan, and net profit was 230 million yuan [2]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 70.1%, with a net margin of 24.5%, while Q2 net margin recovered to 28% [2]. Revenue Breakdown - The pre-mixed cocktail segment generated 1.43 billion yuan in H1 2024, while the flavoring segment saw a revenue increase of 7.5% to 180 million yuan [2]. - Revenue from offline channels increased by 7%, while digital retail and ready-to-drink channels saw declines of 35.7% and 42.7%, respectively [2]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 840 million yuan, 990 million yuan, and 1.13 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.80 yuan, 0.94 yuan, and 1.08 yuan [3][4]. - The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 22x, 19x, and 16x for the same years [3]. Market Positioning - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand positioning with a 3-5-8 product matrix and aims to strengthen its presence in the whiskey market with new product launches [2]. - The company has completed a share buyback of 4.67 million shares, indicating confidence in its growth prospects [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company, indicating a potential increase in stock price relative to the market index [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.628 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 1.38% year-on-year, with a net profit of 402 million yuan, down 8.36% year-on-year [2][3]. - The pre-mixed liquor segment faced pressure with a revenue of 1.431 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.69% decline in sales volume [2][3]. - The company experienced a rise in sales expense ratio, leading to a decrease in net profit margin by 1.99 percentage points to 24.55% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.628 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.38% [2]. - The second quarter revenue was 826 million yuan, down 7.25% year-on-year, while the first quarter saw an increase of 5.51% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for pre-mixed liquor improved by 3.95 percentage points to 70.56% due to price increases [2][3]. - The edible flavor segment reported a revenue of 176 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [2][3]. Future Earnings Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.83 yuan, 0.95 yuan, and 1.09 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 21.43x, 18.69x, and 16.34x [2][3][4].

证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|---------------|------------|--------------|--------------|-------| | | | | 编号： | 2024-05-0802 | | | | ■特定对象调研 | □ | | | | | 投资者关系活动 | □媒体采访 | □ | | | | | 类别 | □新闻发布会 | □路演活动 | | | | | | □现场参观 | | | | | | | □其他 | | | | | | | 国海证券 | ；中金证券 | ；中信证券 | 蒋祎 | ； | | | 德邦证券 | ；天风证券 | ；财通证券 | 赵婕 | ； | | 参与单位名称及 | 中泰证券 | ；兴业证券 | ；华安证券 | 罗越文 | ； | | 人员姓名 | 国金证券 | ；银河证券 | ；国盛证券 | 陈熠 | ； | | | 长江证券 | ；华鑫证券 | ；浙商证券 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The whisky business of the company is poised for growth, with the first batch of whisky barrels filled in October 2021 and expected to be released soon, as they have been stored for nearly three years [2][11]. - The domestic whisky market is still in its early stages, with a market size of 5.5 billion yuan in 2023, significantly smaller compared to the baijiu market [2][13]. - The company is expected to lead the domestic whisky market due to its systematic approach to product localization, consumer education, and channel development [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Whisky Business Development - The company began planning its whisky distillery in 2016, with production starting in October 2021. By December 2023, 300,000 barrels had been filled, indicating a significant investment in the whisky sector [2][11]. 2. Domestic Whisky Consumption Market - The domestic whisky market is still developing, with a size of 5.5 billion yuan in 2023, compared to 756.3 billion yuan for baijiu. The whisky market is expected to grow as consumer preferences shift towards more personalized drinking experiences [2][13]. - The majority of whisky consumed in China is imported, with 33,000 tons imported in 2023, valued at 580 million USD. The main consumer demographic is younger individuals, primarily in first-tier and coastal cities [2][15][21]. 3. Domestic Whisky Industry Development - As of March 2024, there are 42 licensed whisky production entities in China, with 26 projects currently operational. The total distillation capacity is projected to reach 250,000 tons [2][24][26]. - The company is the largest player in the domestic whisky market, with significant investments and a focus on local consumer insights and education [2][31]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.82, 0.98, and 1.21 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22, 18, and 15 times based on the closing price of 17.8 yuan on July 31, 2024 [2][4][7].

[Table_Header] 公司深度报告●非白酒 2024 年 08 月 01 日 威士忌业务蓄势待发 [Table_StockCode] 百润股份(002568) [Table_InvestRank] 推荐 (维持) --国产威士忌市场研究 核心观点： [Table百_S润um公m司ar威y]士忌业务蓄势待发：2021 年 10 月百润股份旗下崃州蒸馏厂开始 第一批威士忌灌桶，截止 2023 年 12 月，崃州蒸馏厂灌桶 30 万桶。目前第一 批入桶的威士忌存储已近 3 年，我们预计第一批成品上市时间渐近。本篇我 们梳理了国内威士忌市场现状。我们认为国产威士忌市场发展空间广阔，而 崃州也将成为其中的领军品牌。 国内威士忌消费市场现状：国内威士忌市场尚处于发展早期阶段，2023 年国 内威士忌市场规模 55 亿元，对比国内白酒、海外威士忌市场规模尚属微乎其 微。考虑中国烈酒品类较为单一，且偏重于对外社交和商务场景饮用，而随 着个人化、悦己式饮酒需求提升，威士忌大有可为。目前国内消费的酒仍以 进口为主，苏格兰威士忌占据主要份额，零售价 300 元/瓶左右是被消费较多 的价格带，消费人群偏年轻化，消费地集中在一 ...

否问殷份(002568) / 非非通 / 公司总计 / 2024.08.02 强奏人群稳定，清爽加大平 ● 校友 平县 北林 ( 文县 ) | --- | |------------| | 未來 | | 收食价(无) | | | 等股外交产(无)3.99 多聚本(亿聚)10.49 蒸海 12 月市场表现 来 文物 SAC 还爷爷爷：S0160523090004 wurwd01@ctsec.com 赵说 산所有 SAC 证书简予：S0160523100002 zhaojie@ctsec.com 油关报考 1. 《半季度基数影响有所承压，全年维 持良好增长》 2024-04-28 2. 《奇基教下实现增长，雙周投这种线 村達 358 矩阵》 2024-04-28 3. 《Q4 奇基数下夺有矛压，ç用投效 畜力未年发展》 2024-02-21 ■ 证券所究报告 : 事件：公司发布 2024 辛辛报，24H1/24Q2 公司分别实现容业状入 16.3/8.3 亿元. 网比变 助-1.4%/-7.3%: 实现与与净利润 4.02/2.33 亿元. 网比变 助-8.4%/- 7.3%。 营批减: 分业务布, 预调减足酒 ...