证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 | | | | | | 程丽丽 [Table_Author] 食品饮料分析师 执业编号：S1500523110003 邮箱：chenglili@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 品类有红利，渠道加速开拓 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 30 日 [Table_Summary] 事件：公司 2024 年实现营收 22.57 亿元，同比+22.2%，实现归母净利润 3.76 亿元，同比+14.3%。25Q1 实现营收 5.04 亿元，同比-14.0%，实现归母净利 润 0.53 亿元，同比-42.2%。 点评： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_OtherReport] ➢ 阶段性调整短期业绩承压，费用前置投入布局长远。结合 24Q4+25Q1 来看，公司实现营收增长 3.2%，增速阶段性表 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 | | | CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 品类有红利，渠道加速开拓 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 30 日 | | | 程丽丽 [Table_Author] 食品饮料分析师 执业编号：S1500523110003 邮箱：chenglili@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 [Table_Summary] 事件：公司 2024 年实现营收 22.57 亿元，同比+22.2%，实现归母净利润 3.76 亿元，同比+14.3%。25Q1 实现营收 5.04 亿元，同比-14.0%，实现归母净利 润 0.53 亿元，同比-42.2%。 点评： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_OtherReport] ➢ 阶段性调整短期业绩承压，费用前置投入布局长远。结合 24Q4+25Q1 来看，公司实现营收增长 3.2%，增速阶段性表 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but is expected to improve gradually on a quarterly basis. The revenue for 2024 is projected at 2.257 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.18% [4][9] - The company is focusing on stabilizing its existing products while expanding its new product offerings. The revenue from various product segments shows significant growth, particularly in comprehensive nuts and beans [5] - The company is actively enhancing its sales channels, with notable performance in overseas markets, especially in Southeast Asia [5][8] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 74.53 yuan - Total shares: 0.93 billion, circulating shares: 0.50 billion - Total market value: 6.9 billion yuan, circulating market value: 3.7 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 93.52/47.85 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 24.5% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 18.00 [3] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported operating income of 2.257 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 376 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 341 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 22.18%, 14.32%, and 16.91% [4] - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 35.46% and 16.67%, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [6] - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 2.677 billion yuan and 3.102 billion yuan in revenue, with net profits of 402 million yuan and 496 million yuan respectively [9][11] Strategic Focus - The company plans to expand into new markets in Southeast Asia, with a focus on localizing product designs and increasing brand presence [7] - The strategy includes strengthening partnerships with major retail channels and enhancing e-commerce collaborations to drive growth [8] - Cost control measures are being implemented, particularly in raw material procurement, to improve profitability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Ganyuan Foods is experiencing short-term performance pressure but anticipates gradual improvement in subsequent quarters, maintaining a "buy" rating for the stock [1]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Ganyuan Foods reported operating revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 376 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 341 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 22.18%, 14.32%, and 16.91% respectively [2]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 652 million yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 99 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 93 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 22.05% but declines in net profit of -13.91% and -10.4% respectively [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 504 million yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 53 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 46 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of -13.99%, -42.21%, and -45.14% respectively [2]. Investment Highlights - The company is focusing on stabilizing its existing products while expanding its new product offerings, with revenue contributions from various product lines such as mixed nuts and beans showing growth rates of 39.80%, 12.56%, 10.48%, 19.72%, and 21.17% respectively [3]. - Ganyuan Foods is restructuring its product strategy by upgrading its flavor offerings in beans, nuts, and snacks, launching new products to enhance market presence and channel compatibility [3]. - The company is also diversifying its sales channels, with revenue from distribution, e-commerce, and other channels growing by 22.58%, 10.75%, and 65.45% respectively [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - In 2024, Ganyuan Foods reported a gross margin of 35.46% and a net profit margin of 16.67%, both showing slight declines compared to the previous year [4]. - The company faced increased cost pressures due to rising raw material prices, particularly palm oil, and higher expenses related to overseas market expansion and branding [4]. - For Q1 2025, the gross margin and net profit margin further declined to 34.32% and 10.47% respectively, attributed to increased sales and management expenses [4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand into new Southeast Asian markets, including Indonesia and Malaysia, with localized product designs expected to launch around May 2025 [5]. - Ganyuan Foods aims to enhance its e-commerce presence and deepen collaborations with platforms like Tmall and JD.com to drive sales growth [5]. - Cost management strategies include locking in prices for raw materials and increasing direct sourcing to optimize costs, with expectations for profitability to improve in the latter part of the year [5]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 2.677 billion yuan and 3.102 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 18.61% and 15.86% respectively [6]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised to 402 million yuan and 496 million yuan, indicating year-on-year growth of 6.86% and 23.34% respectively [6]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years at 4.31, 5.32, and 6.34 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but is expected to improve gradually on a quarterly basis. The revenue for 2024 is projected at 2.257 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.18% [4][9] - The company is focusing on stabilizing its existing products while expanding its new product offerings to enhance market presence and channel compatibility [5][8] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 74.53 yuan - Total shares: 0.93 billion, circulating shares: 0.50 billion - Total market value: 6.9 billion yuan, circulating market value: 3.7 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 93.52/47.85 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 24.5% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 18.00 [3] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 376 million yuan, and non-recurring net profit of 341 million yuan, with respective year-on-year changes of 22.18%, 14.32%, and 16.91% [4] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 652 million yuan, net profit of 99 million yuan, and non-recurring net profit of 93 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of 22.05%, -13.91%, and -10.4% [4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 504 million yuan, net profit of 53 million yuan, and non-recurring net profit of 46 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -13.99%, -42.21%, and -45.14% [4] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from various product segments was as follows: mixed nuts and beans (705 million yuan, +39.80%), green peas (524 million yuan, +12.56%), sunflower seeds (302 million yuan, +10.48%), and others [5] - Revenue from different sales models showed growth: distribution model (1.927 billion yuan, +22.58%), e-commerce (239 million yuan, +10.75%), and others (81 million yuan, +65.45%) [5] Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 35.46% and 16.67%, respectively, showing slight declines year-on-year [6] - The decline in profitability is attributed to rising raw material costs, increased expenses for overseas markets and brand investments, and tax base differences in Q4 2024 [6][8] Future Outlook - The company plans to expand into Southeast Asian markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia in 2025, focusing on local product design and trademark applications [7] - The strategy includes deepening cooperation with major retail channels and enhancing e-commerce partnerships to drive growth [8] - Profitability is expected to recover as raw material costs stabilize and scale effects are realized [8] Earnings Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to 2.677 billion yuan and 3.102 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.61% and 15.86% [9] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are adjusted to 401.99 million yuan and 495.83 million yuan, with respective growth rates of 6.86% and 23.34% [9] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 are 4.31 yuan and 5.32 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17 and 14 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][13][16] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.26 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 380 million yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, total revenue decreased by 14.0% year-on-year to 500 million yuan, with a net profit decline of 42.2% year-on-year to 50 million yuan [1][8][11] - The revenue growth in 2024 was primarily driven by the bulk snack channel and overseas markets, with significant contributions from the distribution/e-commerce/other channels [1][9] - The company is currently in a multi-channel growth phase, focusing on consolidating its leading position in niche markets while enhancing shareholder returns [13][16] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 35.5%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by promotional activities and rising raw material costs [2][10] - The first quarter of 2025 faced high base pressure, with a gross margin decline of 1.1 percentage points due to sustained high palm oil prices [11][12] - The company expects total revenues of 2.61 billion yuan in 2025, 3.00 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.46 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.5%, 15.3%, and 15.0% respectively [3][13][15] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 400 million yuan in 2025, 460 million yuan in 2026, and 550 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 5.9%, 16.3%, and 17.8% respectively [3][13][15] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 17 for 2025, 15 for 2026, and 13 for 2027 [3][13][15] Market and Channel Insights - The bulk snack channel is expected to continue its rapid growth, with revenue share projected to exceed 20% [1][9] - The overseas market, particularly in Vietnam, has shown promising growth, contributing nearly 200 million yuan in revenue for 2024 [1][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][13]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.26 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 380 million yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year. However, in the first quarter of 2025, total revenue decreased by 14.0% year-on-year to 500 million yuan, with a net profit decline of 42.2% year-on-year to 50 million yuan [8][11]. - The growth in revenue for 2024 was primarily driven by the bulk snack channel and overseas markets, with significant contributions from various distribution channels [9][12]. - The company is currently in a multi-channel growth phase, focusing on consolidating its leading position in niche markets while enhancing shareholder returns [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2.26 billion yuan, with a net profit of 380 million yuan. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue drop to 500 million yuan and a net profit of 50 million yuan [8][11]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 35.5%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by promotional activities and rising raw material costs [10][11]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the distribution channels in 2024 was 1.93 billion yuan from distributors, 240 million yuan from e-commerce, and 80 million yuan from other channels, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 22.6%, 10.8%, and 65.5% [9][12]. - The bulk snack channel is expected to continue its rapid growth, with revenue projected to double and its share exceeding 20% [9]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company faced increased costs and expenses in 2024, leading to a decline in profitability. The sales expense ratio rose to 12.7%, reflecting higher promotional and employee costs [10][11]. - The net profit margin for the first quarter of 2025 decreased to 10.5%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, due to high raw material prices and increased expenses [11]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026, now expecting total revenues of 2.61 billion yuan and 3.00 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 15.5% and 15.3% [13][15]. - The focus remains on expanding overseas markets and enhancing e-commerce capabilities, with a cautious approach to managing costs amid ongoing pressures from raw material prices [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.26 billion and net profit of 376 million in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 22.18% and 14.32% respectively. However, Q1 2025 shows a decline in revenue and net profit by 13.99% and 42.21% respectively [1] - The company has launched multiple new products in Spring 2025, including flavored nuts and snacks, which are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [1] - The overseas business is projected to continue its high growth, with significant revenue increases in various regions, particularly in e-commerce and overseas markets [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 35.46% and a net margin of 16.67%, both showing slight declines compared to the previous year. The sales expense ratio increased due to higher salaries and promotional costs [3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 163 million (including tax) for 2024, with a total cash return and share buyback expected to reach 323 million, accounting for 85.82% of the net profit [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.61 billion, 3.01 billion, and 3.46 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 409 million, 489 million, and 580 million, indicating growth rates of 9%, 20%, and 19% [4] Market and Product Strategy - The company is focusing on product innovation to meet market demand and is enhancing its multi-channel distribution strategy, particularly through Sam's Club and overseas markets [4] - The number of distributors has increased by 574 to a total of 3,732, with average distributor revenue rising by 3.72% to 520,000 per distributor [2] Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 16X, 14X, and 11X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 2.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 380 million yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year. However, the Q1 2025 revenue was 500 million yuan, a decline of 14.0%, and the net profit dropped by 42.2% to 50 million yuan. The company has increased short-term expenses, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and the introduction of a new forecast for 2027 [1][4] - The company is expected to benefit from traditional channel reforms and sustained growth in overseas revenue, maintaining a positive outlook [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 35.1%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio increased to 12.8%, up 1.7 percentage points, primarily due to promotional expenses. The net profit for Q4 2024 was 100 million yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year due to a high base effect from tax refunds in Q4 2023 [3] - For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 34.3%, down 1.1 percentage points, attributed to rising raw material costs. The sales expense ratio rose to 17.3%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points, influenced by new endorsement fees and expansion of overseas operations [3] Revenue Growth and Product Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.0%, benefiting from the timing of the Spring Festival. The revenue breakdown by product for 2024 shows significant growth in mixed nuts and other categories, with mixed nuts achieving a revenue of 700 million yuan, up 39.8% [2] - The company’s revenue from overseas markets showed remarkable growth, with a notable increase in sales volume, particularly in regions like Northeast and overseas markets [2][4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to gradually see the effects of its traditional channel reforms starting from Q2 2025. It has established subsidiaries in Hong Kong and Indonesia to enhance its overseas business presence, with a registered capital of approximately 1.04 million USD for the Hong Kong subsidiary and 176 billion Indonesian Rupiah for the Indonesian subsidiary [4] - The company aims to strengthen its distribution system and overseas business, which is anticipated to support its continuous growth [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 2.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 380 million yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year. However, the revenue for Q1 2025 was 500 million yuan, a decrease of 14.0% year-on-year, and the net profit dropped by 42.2% to 50 million yuan. The company has made significant short-term investments in expenses, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2026, with expected profits of 450 million yuan (-70 million), 540 million yuan (-100 million), and 680 million yuan, representing growth rates of 19.0%, 20.4%, and 25.9% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 14.8, 12.3, and 9.8 for 2025-2027 [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.0%, benefiting from the timing of the Spring Festival. The revenue breakdown by product for 2024 shows comprehensive nuts at 700 million yuan (up 39.8%), green peas at 520 million yuan (up 12.6%), sunflower seeds at 300 million yuan (up 10.5%), broad beans at 280 million yuan (up 19.7%), and other series at 440 million yuan (up 21.2%). The revenue by region indicates strong growth in East China (660 million yuan, up 45.3%) and overseas (8 million yuan, up 1761.5%) [2][3] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 35.1%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio increased to 12.8%, up 1.7 percentage points due to promotional expenses. The net profit for Q4 2024 was 100 million yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from tax refunds in Q4 2023. In Q1 2025, the gross margin decreased to 34.3%, down 1.1 percentage points, attributed to rising raw material costs [3][4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to face short-term revenue pressure due to the high base effect from the Spring Festival and traditional channel reforms. However, it is actively pursuing reforms in organizational structure, product innovation, and direct channel adaptation, with expected improvements starting in Q2 2025. The establishment of subsidiaries in Hong Kong and Indonesia aims to enhance overseas business, with actual overseas sales expected to be higher than reported [4][5]