Core Viewpoint - Hesai Group is facing significant scrutiny and pressure on its stock following allegations from short seller Blue Orca Capital, which claims the company is misleading investors regarding its ties to the Chinese military and its financial disclosures [1][2]. Financial Concerns - Blue Orca Capital has accused Hesai of providing suspect financials and lying about its involvement with the Chinese military, deeming the company untrustworthy and uninvestable [2]. - The short seller highlighted that Hesai's profitability, reported late last year, may have been artificially inflated by a $20 million break-up fee from its largest customer, which was not disclosed to investors [6]. - Concerns were raised about inconsistent purchasing volumes relative to reported sales and unexplained margin expansion, alongside the withdrawal of the company's IPO in China [8]. Military Allegations - Allegations have been made that Hesai has misled both investors and U.S. authorities regarding the use of its lidar technology for military applications, with evidence presented showing a military vehicle equipped with Hesai's lidar system [3]. - The Department of Defense designated Hesai as a "Chinese military company" in January 2024, and the company is currently suing to be removed from this list, with expectations that it may lose the case [4]. Revenue Impact - Blue Orca estimates that Hesai could lose a customer segment that historically accounted for 40% of its revenues and approximately 57% of its gross profit due to its military designation [5]. - Following a recent surge in stock price due to a reported multi-year deal with Mercedes-Benz, skepticism remains regarding the exclusivity of this deal, as Mercedes has not publicly confirmed it [7]. Stock Performance - Hesai Group's stock has seen a nearly 300% increase over the past year, but it was down 8.5% to $20.39 at the time of the report's publication [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $26.64 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported strong Q4 2024 performance with revenue of 720 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33.3%. The net profit for the quarter was 150 million RMB, aligning with previous expectations. The laser radar shipment reached 222,000 units, marking the highest quarterly output and revenue levels in history [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company guides revenue between 520-540 million RMB, and for the full year 2025, it expects laser radar shipments to double or triple, achieving revenue of 3-3.5 billion RMB and a non-GAAP net profit of 350-500 million RMB [1]. - The report highlights the growing demand in the intelligent driving and robotics sectors, which is expected to drive market growth for laser radar [1]. Summary by Sections Q4 Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 720 million RMB, with a net profit of 150 million RMB. The laser radar shipment was 222,000 units, including 193,000 units for ADAS and 29,000 units for robotics, representing the best quarterly performance to date [1][2]. ADAS Segment - The total shipment of ADAS laser radar in Q4 2024 was 193,000 units, significantly up from 80,400 units in the same period last year. The company has secured orders from 22 OEMs for over 120 vehicle models, supporting a target delivery of 1-1.3 million ADAS laser radars in 2025, up from 456,000 units in 2024 [2]. Robotics Segment - The robotics laser radar sales reached 29,000 units in Q4 2024. The company aims to deliver 200,000 units in 2025, benefiting from product iterations and price reductions in various applications such as Robotaxi, industrial automation, and consumer robotics [3]. Valuation - The target price has been raised to $26.64, reflecting an optimistic outlook on the demand driven by intelligent driving and robotics. The expected shipments for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to reach 1.41 million, 2.17 million, and 2.95 million units respectively, with revenue forecasts adjusted upwards to 3.42 billion, 5 billion, and 6.78 billion RMB for the same years [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company HSAI.US, with a target price raised to $20.0, indicating a potential upside of 25% based on a 2025 adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of 48.0x [1][5][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant milestone by recording its first profitable quarter in Q4 2024, with revenue of RMB 720 million, a 28% year-over-year increase, and a gross margin of 39.0% [10][12]. - For 2025, the company expects revenue to reach RMB 30-35 billion, with substantial growth in non-GAAP net profit and GAAP profit projected between RMB 200-350 million [10][12]. - The domestic market for intelligent driving is accelerating, and the company is expanding its overseas customer base, which is expected to support continued growth in ADAS lidar shipments [10][12]. - The company is also seeing rapid growth in its robotics applications, with expectations of nearly 200,000 units shipped in 2025, contributing positively to its gross margin [10][12]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: RMB 1,877 million in 2023, RMB 2,077 million in 2024, RMB 3,058 million in 2025, RMB 4,231 million in 2026, and RMB 6,434 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][11]. - The expected net profit (loss) transitions from a loss of RMB 476 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1,054 million by 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [2][11]. - The gross margin is projected to fluctuate slightly, starting at 35.2% in 2023 and expected to be 39.2% by 2027 [2][11]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a WACC of 16.8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%, leading to a target price of $20.0 [10][14][15]. - The company’s market capitalization is currently estimated at $2,034 million, with an average trading volume of $51.9 million over the past three months [5][10].

2025 年 03 月 12 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 规模效应凸显构筑高壁垒，龙头坐享智驾行业红利 ——禾赛（HSAI）2024 年业绩点评 7,100-7,400 万美元），同比增长约 45%-50%。 | 相对纳斯达克指数表现 | | | 2025/3/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 禾赛 | 40.90% | 106.70% | 318.06% | | 纳斯达克 100 | -10.94% | -9.32% | 7.54% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/03/11 | | 当前价格（美元） | | | 24.08 | | 52 周价格区间（美元） | | | 15.29-24.18 | | 总市值（百万美元） | | | 3,069.68 | | 流通市值（百万美元） | | | 3,069.68 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 12,748 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Hesai Tech [2][15] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 720 million yuan in Q4 2024, representing a 28% year-over-year increase and a 33% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a gross profit margin of 39.0% [15] - The company is expected to reach full profitability in 2025, with projected revenue of 3 to 3.5 billion yuan and a GAAP net profit of 200 to 350 million yuan [15] - The delivery volume of LiDAR products reached 222,000 units in Q4 2024, a 153% year-over-year increase, with ADAS deliveries accounting for 87% [15] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.228 billion, 4.225 billion, and 5.355 billion yuan respectively, with GAAP net profits expected to be 226 million, 382 million, and 708 million yuan [15] - The gross profit margin is expected to be around 40% for 2025 [15] - The company has a market capitalization of 3.07 billion USD and a current stock price of 24.08 USD [2] Market Position - The company is the largest revenue scale and the earliest to achieve profitability among all LiDAR companies [15] - The JT series of mini super-hemispherical 3D LiDAR for robotics is expected to see significant growth, with over 20,000 units delivered in December 2024 alone [15] - The target price is set at 21.4 USD per share, based on a 6.0X PS valuation for 2025 [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating to the company with a target price of US$25.00, up from a prior target price of US$23.00 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a record high of 222,054 LiDAR units shipped in 4Q24, leading to a total revenue increase of 33.4% QoQ to RMB702 million, and achieved its first quarterly GAAP net profit of RMB147 million [4][5]. - For 2025, the company anticipates LiDAR shipments between 1.2 million to 1.5 million units, driven by strong demand from major clients and new product launches [6][9]. - The management expressed confidence in maintaining a gross margin of around 40% despite a projected decline in average selling price (ASP) due to product mix changes [9][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB2,077 million in 2024 to RMB3,440 million in 2025, with a projected net profit of RMB265 million for 2025 [7][9]. - The company aims for a non-GAAP net profit of RMB350 million to RMB500 million in 2025, significantly exceeding consensus estimates [9][11]. Shipment and Product Mix - The company expects to ship 1.0 million to 1.3 million units of ADAS LiDAR and around 200,000 units of robotics LiDAR in 2025, with new products contributing significantly to growth [6][11]. - The ASP for ADAS LiDAR is projected to decline to RMB2,300 to RMB2,500 in 2025, down from over RMB4,000 in 2024, due to a shift towards more affordable products [9][11]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation methodology has shifted from price-to-sales (P/S) to price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples, with a target price of US$25.00 based on a 25x 2026E P/E ratio [4][11]. - The current multiples for the company are lower than its competitors, indicating potential undervaluation [11].

规模效应助力全年盈利，机器人雷达快速放量 禾赛(HSAI.O) 登记编号 S0880523110003 本报告导读： 盈利能力大超预期。智驾平权快速推进，ADAS 雷达下探至 10 万级别车型，ATX 系列加速渗透；机器人雷达快速放量，开启第二增长曲线。 投资要点： [Table_PicQuote] -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 2024-03-11 2024-04-01 2024-04-19 2024-05-09 2024-05-30 2024-06-20 2024-07-11 2024-07-31 2024-08-20 2024-09-10 2024-09-30 2024-10-18 2024-11-07 2024-11-27 2024-12-18 2025-01-10 2025-01-31 2025-02-21 52周股价走势图 HSAI 纳斯达克综指 ——禾赛科技 FY24Q4 业绩点评 [Table_Industry] 海外信息科技 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [table_Authors] 秦和平(分析师) | | | | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hesai Technology (HSAI.US) and raises the target price to $20.0, indicating a potential upside of 25% based on a 2025 adjusted target P/E of 48.0x [1][5][10]. Core Insights - Hesai Technology achieved a revenue of RMB 720 million in Q4 2024, representing a 28% year-over-year increase, and became the first profitable manufacturer of automotive lidar [10][12]. - The company expects revenue to reach RMB 3.0-3.5 billion in 2025, with significant growth in both Non-GAAP and GAAP net profits [10][12]. - The domestic push for intelligent driving and successful overseas customer expansion are expected to drive continued growth in lidar shipments for passenger vehicles [10][12]. - The robotics application market is rapidly expanding, with expectations for nearly 200,000 lidar units shipped in 2025, contributing positively to the company's gross margin [10][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Hesai Technology from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,877 million - 2024: RMB 2,077 million - 2025E: RMB 3,058 million - 2026E: RMB 4,231 million - 2027E: RMB 6,434 million - The expected revenue growth rates are 56% for 2023, 11% for 2024, 47% for 2025, 38% for 2026, and 52% for 2027 [2][11]. - The gross margin is projected to be 35.2% in 2023, increasing to 42.6% in 2024, and then stabilizing around 39.2% by 2027 [2][11]. Valuation - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a revenue growth rate of 30% from 2030 to 2033 and a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%, resulting in a target price of $20.0 [10][14][15]. - The WACC is calculated at 16.8%, with a beta of 1.49 and an equity risk premium of 11.2% [14][15].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company achieved record net revenues of RMB2 billion (USD285 million), marking the highest in the global LiDAR industry [39] - Shipments exceeded 500,000 units in 2024, more than doubling the total from 2023, with December alone setting an industry record of 100,000 monthly shipments [39] - The company reported a full-year non-GAAP net profit of RMB14 million (USD1.9 million), a significant improvement from a non-GAAP net loss of RMB241 million (USD34 million) in 2023 [41] - The blended gross margin for Q4 2024 was 39%, down from the previous quarter due to a shift in product mix [40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company shipped over 20,000 units to its robotics business in December 2024, indicating significant growth in this sector [40] - For 2025, the company projects total shipments of 1.2 million to 1.5 million units, with nearly 200,000 units expected to come from high-margin robotic LiDAR [8][9] - The ATX LiDAR, priced at approximately $200, is anticipated to contribute significantly to total shipments in 2025, with expectations of high adoption rates among OEMs [44][45] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The adoption of ADAS in China is projected to grow from 8% in 2023 to 70% by 2030, indicating a transformative decade ahead for the industry [10] - LiDAR integration in EVs in China is expected to surge from 8% in 2023 to 20% in 2025 and then to 56% by 2030 [13] - The company has secured design wins for 120 vehicle models across 22 OEMs worldwide, including 9 out of the top 10 largest automakers by market cap in China [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to solidify its leadership in the LiDAR market by focusing on the growing demand for ADAS and robotics applications [6][29] - The strategy includes launching new production lines in Q1 2025, with an expected annualized production capacity of 2 million units by the end of the year [29] - The company is committed to lowering barriers to LiDAR adoption and driving technological equality, with a focus on cost-effective solutions [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving GAAP profitability of RMB200 million to RMB350 million in 2025, with non-GAAP profits projected to soar to RMB350 million to RMB500 million [50] - The company anticipates a strong year in 2025, driven by increased demand from both ADAS and robotics sectors [42] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a healthy gross margin of around 40% while continuing to invest in R&D [49][65] Other Important Information - The company has deepened collaborations with major clients such as BYD and Great Wall Motors, which are ramping up their strategic upgrades in intelligent driving technologies [24][25] - The JT Mini LiDAR is being positioned as a leading product in the robotics market, with significant orders expected in 2025 [31][46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for 2025 and quarterly volume trajectory - Management provided revenue guidance of RMB520 million to RMB540 million for Q1 2025, with expectations of approximately 200,000 units shipped [55][56] - The ATX is expected to have an annual price decline, while gross profit margins are anticipated to remain close to 40% [58][59] Question: Long-term potential of the robotics LiDAR market - Management indicated that the robotics market could be several times larger than the passenger vehicle business, with high margins expected to persist [71][76] Question: Further cost reduction and technology advancements - Management noted limited room for further cost reductions on the ATX platform, emphasizing the importance of maintaining product reliability and performance [94][95] Question: ADAS LiDAR adoption in overseas markets - Management clarified that LiDAR is applicable to both EV and ICE vehicles, and the company is optimistic about growth prospects in overseas markets [130] Question: Long-term competitive landscape of ADAS LiDAR market - Management acknowledged that while exclusivity with OEMs is not guaranteed, the company's performance leadership and cost competitiveness are key advantages [140][141]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hesai Technology (HSAI) for the first time [3]. Core Insights - Hesai Technology is a leading player in the LiDAR market with advanced technology and extensive collaboration with downstream customers. The company has secured over 100 pre-installed production models from 22 major OEM clients, positioning it to benefit from the growing demand for automotive and robotic LiDAR in China [3]. - The report forecasts Hesai's total revenue for 2024-2026 to be approximately 2.09 billion, 3.27 billion, and 4.66 billion CNY, corresponding to 290 million, 450 million, and 640 million USD, respectively. The current market valuation corresponds to price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of 7.6, 4.9, and 3.4 for the same years [3]. Summary by Sections 1. LiDAR Market Leadership and Product Matrix - Hesai Technology, established in 2014, is recognized as the first publicly listed LiDAR company in China, focusing on advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous vehicles. The company has a comprehensive product matrix covering various applications, including ADAS, autonomous driving, and robotics [17][18]. - The company has developed a complete range of products, including ATX, AT128, and PANDAR series, catering to different distance and application needs [20][21]. 2. Demand from Automotive and Robotics - The report highlights the significant growth potential for LiDAR in the automotive sector, with a projected market size exceeding 3.6 billion USD by 2029, driven by strong demand in China [52][54]. - The penetration of LiDAR in lower-priced vehicles is expected to increase, with prices for solid-state LiDAR dropping to around 200 USD, making advanced driving solutions more accessible [56]. 3. Self-Built Capacity and In-House Chip Development - Hesai has established a fully integrated manufacturing center, enabling it to maintain quality and efficiency in production. The company has filed 1,565 patents in key technology areas, ensuring a competitive edge [9][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-developed chips in enhancing product performance and reducing costs, contributing to the company's technological moat [3][9]. 4. Revenue Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report projects a recovery in revenue growth, with a forecasted total revenue of 1.36 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [26]. - Hesai is expected to achieve profitability under non-GAAP measures in 2024, marking a significant milestone as the first LiDAR company to do so globally [26].