2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 北美业务止跌企稳，欧洲业务延续增长，一季度业绩表现超预期 ——梦百合（603313.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：6.97 元 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 联系人：吴子倩 021-52523872 wuziqian@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.71 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 39.77 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 5.22/9.16 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 149.17% | 股价相对走势 -36% -22% -8% 7% 21% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 梦百合 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 16.01 | 6.77 | -24.63 | | 绝对 | 12.60 | 6.41 | -2 ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 稳健增长，开局亮眼 ——古井贡酒（000596.SZ）2024 年年报与 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：古井贡酒发布 2024 年年报以及 2025 年一季报，公司 24 年实现总营收 235.78 亿元、同比增长 16.41%，实现归母净利润 55.17 亿元、同比增长 20.22%， 其中 24Q4 总营收 45.09 亿元、同比增长 4.85%，归母净利润 7.71 亿元、同比 基本持平。25Q1 总营收 91.46 亿元、同比增长 10.38%，归母净利润 23.30 亿 元、同比增长 12.78%。公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 50 元（含税），24 年度 累计现金分红 31.72 亿元（含税）、对应分红率 57.49%。 年份原浆系列量价齐升，25 年春节开局亮眼。1）公司 24 年白酒业务营收 228.65 亿元、同比增长 16.43%，其中销量/均价同比+8.44%/+7.37%。分品牌看，24 年年份原浆/古井贡酒/黄鹤楼及其他系列营收为 180.86/22.41/25.38 亿元，同 比 增 长 17.31%/11.17%/15.08% ， ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 业绩承压，期待后续盈利改善 ——三全食品（002216.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：三全食品发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，公司 2024 年实现总营收 66.32 亿元、同比减少 6%，归母净利润 5.42 亿元、同比减少 27.64%，扣非归 母净利润4.15亿元、同比减少35.8%。25Q1总营收22.18亿元、同比减少1.58%， 归母净利润 2.09 亿元、同比减少 9.22%，扣非归母净利润 1.64 亿元、同比减少 16.87%。公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 3 元（含税）、分红率 48.64%。 24 年传统米面制品收入承压、25Q1 有所改善，大 B 端表现相对领先。1）分市 场 ， 24 年零售及创新 / 餐饮市场营收分别为 51.19/14.45 亿元，同比 -8.10%/+1.06%，C 端零售市场表现较为疲软，B 端餐饮市场中小 B 端客户有所 承压、主要系老品竞争较为激烈，大 B 客户继续拓展、收入增速较为领先。分 产品看，24 年速冻米面制品/速冻调制食品营收分别为 55.99/8.73 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue reached 4.443 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.47%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 326 million yuan, up 14.73% year-on-year [1] - The sales of Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) products are expected to accelerate, with projected sales of approximately 300 million yuan in 2024 [2][3] - The company has established a global sales network and is expected to see improvements in its overseas subsidiaries, indicating potential for international expansion [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.443 billion yuan, with a net profit of 326 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 295 million yuan [1] - The Q4 revenue was 1.261 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 23.22%, while Q1 2025 revenue was 1.042 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.76% [1][2] Business Segments - Blood Glucose Monitoring (BGM) revenue for 2024 was 3.321 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.58% [2] - The company anticipates steady growth in its BGM business for 2025, supported by a robust product system and distribution network [2] CGM Product Development - The company is a leading player in the domestic CGM market, with its products launched in 2023 and expected to see significant sales growth [2] - The second-generation CGM products are anticipated to be launched soon, further enhancing the product lineup [2] International Expansion - The company has received CE certification for its CGM products and is in the process of entering markets in Western and Northern Europe [3] - An FDA application for the CGM products has been submitted, with expectations for approval in 2025 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is set at 431 million yuan, with a downward adjustment for 2026 to 523 million yuan [3] - The company is recognized as the leading brand in domestic blood glucose monitoring, with promising prospects for international business [3]

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 调整转型进行中，期待轻装上阵 ——豫园股份（600655.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 公司 1Q2025 营收同比下降 49.00%，归母净利润同比下降 71.24% 公司公布 2025 年一季报：1Q2025 实现营业收入 87.82 亿元，同比下降 49.00%， 实现归母净利润 0.52 亿元，同比下降 71.24%，实现扣非归母净利润-1.79 亿元， 上年同期为 0.81 亿元。 2024 年，公司实现营业收入 469.24 亿元，同比下降 19.30%，实现归母净利润 1.25 亿元，同比下降 93.81%，实现扣非归母净利润-21.09 亿元，上年同期为-4.51 亿元。 公司 1Q2025 综合毛利率增长 2.36 个百分点，期间费用率增长 6.71 个百分点 1Q2025 公司综合毛利率为 16.10%，同比增长 2.36 个百分点。2024 年公司综 合毛利率为 13.60%，同比下降 0.52 个百分点。 1Q2025 公司期间费用率为 19.34%，同比增长 6.71 个百分点。其中，销售/管 理/研发/财务费用率分 ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 北美业务止跌企稳，欧洲业务延续增长，一季度业绩表现超预期 ——梦百合（603313.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：6.97 元 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 联系人：吴子倩 021-52523872 wuziqian@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.71 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 39.77 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 5.22/9.16 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 149.17% | 股价相对走势 -36% -22% -8% 7% 21% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 梦百合 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 16.01 | 6.77 | -24.63 | | 绝对 | 12.60 | 6.41 | -2 ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 2024 年营收小幅下降，利润端承压明显 ——国茂股份（603915.SH）2024 年年报点评 要点 事件： 4 月 29 日国茂股份发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司实现营收 25.89 亿元， 同比-2.7%；实现归母净利润 2.94 亿元，同比-25.8%；实现扣非归母净利润 2.06 亿元，同比-42.2%。2024 年销售毛利率为 21.1%，同比-4.9pct。单季度来看， 2024Q4 公司实现营收 6.62 亿元，同比+2.0%，环比+0.5%；实现归母净利润 0.85 亿元，同比-34.2%，环比+36.4%；实现扣非归母净利润 0.30 亿元，同比 -73.9%，环比-44.8%。 点评：2024 年营收小幅下降，利润端承压明显。 2024 年，全球制造业复苏进程缓慢，我国减速器行业整体处于筑底调整阶段。 24 年公司营业收入同比小幅下降，公司全年减速机总发货量（不含精密类减速 器）同比实现约 5%的增长，产品市场占有率进一步提升，但由于行业竞争加剧， 减速机价格下降，导致公司收入小幅下降；利润端承压明显，24 年公司扣非归 母净利润同比下 ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 预调鸡尾酒需求仍较疲软，威士忌业务有望提供新增长动能 ——百润股份（002568.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：26.33 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.49 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 276.30 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 15.00/31.70 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 55.04% | 股价相对走势 -25% -7% 11% 29% 47% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 百润股份 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth with a significant increase in infrastructure orders, achieving a revenue of 555.34 billion yuan and a net profit of 15.01 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 1.1% and 0.6% respectively [1][2]. - The real estate development business has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in land reserves located in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, totaling 7,625 million square meters [2][4]. - The company has signed new contracts worth 1,270.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, with significant growth in infrastructure and overseas contracts [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues from various segments: construction (364.9 billion yuan), infrastructure (128.3 billion yuan), real estate development (53.7 billion yuan), and surveying and design (2.3 billion yuan), with respective year-on-year changes of -0.2%, +0.5%, +15.5%, and -11.3% [2]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 7.8% and 3.2%, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [2]. Contracting and Orders - The company secured new contracts totaling 12,702 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with the construction segment contributing 12,037 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.4% increase year-on-year [3]. - Specific growth in new contracts includes energy engineering (96.6% increase) and municipal engineering (44.4% increase) within the infrastructure sector [3]. Cash Flow and Management - The company has improved its cash flow management, with a net cash outflow from operating activities of 95.85 billion yuan, which is a reduction of 0.74 billion yuan compared to the previous year [4]. - The company has also seen a commitment from its parent group to increase shareholding, indicating confidence in its future performance [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company remains stable, with expected net profits of 47.49 billion yuan, 48.67 billion yuan, and 50.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of RMB 2.35 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 160 million, reflecting an 11.9% increase [1]. - The company is expanding its product offerings and customer base, particularly in the electric steering gear and new energy sectors, while also entering the robotics market to establish a second growth curve [3]. - The gross margin is projected to improve in the future despite short-term pressure due to new project ramp-ups [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company anticipates a revenue increase of 16.4% to RMB 2.35 billion and a net profit increase of 11.9% to RMB 160 million. The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show a revenue increase of 29.7% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 24.0%, with a slight increase in operating expenses [2]. Business Development - The company is actively pursuing new projects and expanding its global footprint, including establishing a subsidiary in Thailand and a new factory in Yangzhou [3]. - A joint venture for robotics development is planned, indicating a strategic move into the robotics sector [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a decrease in net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 by 15% and 5% respectively, but introduces a new estimate for 2027 at RMB 434 million [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from RMB 0.88 in 2024 to RMB 1.16 in 2025, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 39 in 2024 to 29 in 2025 [5][12].