2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 业绩稳健增长，AIDC 业务有望贡献新增量 当前价：29.17 元 ——盛弘股份（300693.SZ）2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年一季报：2025Q1，公司实现营业收入 6.04 亿元，同比 +0.87%，环比-35.77%；归母净利润 0.73 亿元，同比+9.87%，环比-53.98%； 扣非归母净利润 0.68 亿元，同比+14.26%，环比-56.48%。 点评： 业绩稳健增长，毛利率、净利率同比小幅提升。2025Q1，公司毛利率为 39.61%， 同比+0.07pct;公司净利率为 11.8%，同比+0.83pct。净利率的提升主要系销售 费用率的下滑，2025Q1，公司销售费用率为 12.44%，同比-1.5pct。 AIDC 业务有望贡献新增量。随着 AI 的快速发展，数据中心的投产扩建速度不断 加快。公司作为数据中心电力电子系统基础设施中的核心供应商之一，为数据中 心提供稳定优质的电能质量产品。目前，公司可为数据中心提供有源滤波器 APF、 静止无功发生器 SVG 产品系列，为数据中心电流电压稳定保驾护航；同时，公 司可提 ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 25Q1 收入承压，非经常性损益贡献净利润增长 ——行动教育（605098.SH）2025 年一季度业绩点评 公司 25Q1 收入同比下降 7.21%，主要系 Q1 为传统淡季，以及部分客户消课节 奏可能放缓。25Q1 公司销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金为 1.05 亿元，同比 -34.17%；经营活动产生的现金流量净额为-5062 万元，同比由净流入变为净流 出，主要系销售收款同比下降，且支付的职工薪酬同比上升所致。截至 25Q1 末， 公司合同负债余额为 10.48 亿元，较 24 年末（10.80 亿元）略有下降，但仍处 高位，为后续业绩确认提供支撑。 非经常性损益贡献利润增长，费用率同比上升。 1）25Q1 公司毛利率为 73.77%，同比+1.99pct。2）25Q1 公司销售费用率为 32.10%，同比+3.50pcts。3）25Q1 管理费用率为 18.90%，同比+0.09pcts。4） 25Q1 研发费用率为 4.20%，同比-1.07pcts。5）25Q1 公司公允价值变动收益 为 391 万元（去年同期为-256 万元），投资净收益为 152 万元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of Postal Savings Bank, with current prices at 5.35 CNY and 4.85 HKD respectively [1][10]. Core Insights - Postal Savings Bank's Q1 2025 report shows stable revenue at 893.6 billion CNY, with a slight year-over-year decline of 0.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 252.5 billion CNY, down 2.6% year-over-year [2][3]. - The bank's non-interest income has increased its contribution to total revenue, rising to 22.9%, up 4.9 percentage points from the previous year [3][4]. - The bank's loan and interest income growth rates are 9.8% and -3.8% respectively, indicating a shift towards non-interest income sources [3][4]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the bank's net interest margin decreased to 1.71%, down 16 basis points from 2024, primarily due to lower asset yields [6][10]. - Non-interest income grew by 14.8% year-over-year, reaching 205.1 billion CNY, with significant contributions from fees and commissions [7][10]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains low at 0.91%, with a slight increase from the previous year [8][10]. Asset and Liability Management - As of Q1 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 8% and 9.8% year-over-year, respectively, with loans making up 56.5% of interest-earning assets [4][5]. - The bank's deposit growth was robust, with total deposits increasing by 9.2% year-over-year, reflecting strong core funding capabilities [5][10]. Capital Adequacy - The risk-weighted assets (RWA) increased by 6.9% year-over-year, with a decline in capital adequacy ratios, indicating higher capital consumption due to increased lending [9][10]. - The bank's core tier 1 capital ratio stood at 9.21%, down from the previous year, but is expected to improve following a planned capital increase of 130 billion CNY [9][10]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a slight decline in earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027, adjusting the forecast to 0.74, 0.75, and 0.78 CNY respectively [10][11]. - The current price-to-book (P/B) ratios for A-shares and H-shares are estimated at 0.7 and 0.55 respectively for 2025 [10][11].

增持（维持） 2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 预调鸡尾酒需求仍较疲软，威士忌业务有望提供新增长动能 ——百润股份（002568.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 当前价：26.33 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.49 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 276.30 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 15.00/31.70 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 55.04% | 股价相对走势 -25% -7% 11% 29% 47% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 百润股份 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a focus on three asset categories, with specific stock recommendations for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks for May 2025 [1] - The A-share stock picks include companies such as Zhongzi Technology, Heng Rui Medicine, and Gree Electric, while the Hong Kong stock picks feature Alibaba-W and Tencent Holdings [1] Group 2 - The report identifies Kayou as a leading domestic collectible card game company, successfully expanding its product line into stationery and other toy categories, with a strong R&D capability [2] - Kayou's core product is collectible card games, supported by a diversified and continuously upgraded product portfolio [2] Group 3 - Suzhou Bank reported a revenue of 12.2 billion yuan for 2024, a 3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.1 billion yuan, up 10.2% [3] - The bank's first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 3.25 billion yuan, a 0.8% increase, and a net profit of 1.55 billion yuan, up 6.8% [3] - The bank maintains a double-digit growth in credit and a low non-performing loan ratio, with convertible bonds enhancing its capital base [3] Group 4 - Ningbo Bank's Q1 2025 revenue, PPOP, and net profit growth rates were 5.6%, 10%, and 5.8% respectively, indicating resilience in its fundamentals [4] - The bank is focused on building diversified profit centers and maintaining a high expansion rate in its balance sheet [4] Group 5 - Chengdu Bank reported a revenue of 23 billion yuan for 2024, a 5.9% increase, and a net profit of 12.9 billion yuan, up 10.2% [5] - In Q1 2025, the bank achieved a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a 3.2% increase, and a net profit of 3 billion yuan, up 5.6% [5] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains low, and it benefits from convertible bonds enhancing its capital base [5] Group 6 - Lu Xi Chemical reported a revenue of 29.76 billion yuan for 2024, a 17.4% increase, and a net profit of 2.03 billion yuan, up 148% [7] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.29 billion yuan, a 7.96% increase, but net profit decreased by 27.3% [7] - Future net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.056 billion, 2.325 billion, and 2.643 billion yuan respectively [7] Group 7 - The report indicates that China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) achieved a total revenue of 735.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.91% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.86% [12] - The net profit for the same period was 13.3 billion yuan, down 27.58% year-on-year but up 118.66% quarter-on-quarter [12] - Future net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 53.6 billion, 57.3 billion, and 61.5 billion yuan respectively [12] Group 8 - The report notes that the photovoltaic expansion has slowed, leading to a decrease in new orders for Jiejia Weichuang, while breakthroughs in semiconductor and lithium battery equipment have been achieved [13] - Future net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.039 billion, 1.366 billion, and 1.156 billion yuan respectively [13] Group 9 - Yingfeng Environment has maintained the top position in the domestic sanitation equipment market for 24 consecutive years, with a leading position in urban services [15] - Future net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 686 million, 736 million, and 798 million yuan respectively [15] Group 10 - The report highlights that the company has achieved a revenue of 574.17 billion yuan and a net profit of 76.10 billion yuan for 2024, with Q1 2025 figures showing a revenue of 88.95 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.80 billion yuan [21] - Future net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 84.74 billion, 93.93 billion, and 103.50 billion yuan respectively [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main product prices have declined, leading to a decrease in performance for the second half of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 [6] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.763 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 148% [5] - The company is expected to face challenges in 2025 due to further price declines in key products, resulting in a downward adjustment of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 29.763 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.029 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 148% [5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 7.290 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.96%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.92% [5] Business Segments - The chemical new materials segment generated a revenue of 20.4 billion yuan in 2024, up 26.8% year-on-year, while the basic chemical products segment saw a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The fertilizer business achieved a revenue of 3.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9% [6] Price Trends - The report highlights a decline in sales prices for key products in the second half of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, with specific declines noted for PC, PA6, and other chemicals [6] Production Capacity and Management - The company has successfully resumed production of its hydrogen peroxide facility and launched new capacity projects, including a 600,000-ton caprolactam project [7] - The production target for 2025 is set at 13.5 million tons, a 40.6% increase from 2024 [7] Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to the decline in product prices, with expected net profits of 2.056 billion yuan for 2025, 2.325 billion yuan for 2026, and 2.643 billion yuan for 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a 3.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, reaching 5.74 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.5% to 500 million yuan [5][11] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in performance, with revenue dropping by 14% year-on-year to 950 million yuan and net profit down 84% to 28.34 million yuan [6][11] - The company is undergoing business transformation and optimization, focusing on brand operation and member management to strengthen its market position [11] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.74 billion yuan, with a net profit of 500 million yuan, and a basic EPS of 1.20 yuan [5][11] - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.7%, slightly down from the previous year, but has shown signs of recovery since Q4 2024 [8][11] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 690 million yuan, reflecting a 13.8% increase year-on-year [10] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, online channels contributed 68% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while offline channels accounted for 22% with a decline of 10.7% [7][11] - The skincare segment remains the largest contributor to revenue at 84%, although it saw a slight decline of 1.4% year-on-year [7][11] Cost and Expense Analysis - The company’s expense ratio increased by 4.3 percentage points to 64% in 2024, driven by higher sales and management expenses [8][11] - The sales expense ratio rose to 50%, primarily due to increased marketing and promotional activities [9][11] Future Earnings Forecast - The report projects net profits of 690 million yuan, 830 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.62 yuan, 1.97 yuan, and 2.36 yuan [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue growth in 2024, with operating income reaching 12.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30% [5][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 1.01 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 51.9% year-on-year, primarily due to the drop in lithium carbonate prices impacting profitability [5][6] - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating income of 3.77 billion yuan, up 47% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 11.4% to 350 million yuan [5][7] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue from major business segments showed strong growth: machinery equipment, overseas building materials, and lithium battery materials generated revenues of 6.72 billion, 4.72 billion, and 880 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 35.1%, 29.0%, and 19.2% [6] - The company’s domestic and overseas revenues were 4.57 billion and 8.02 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 18% and 38%, indicating that overseas business accounted for over 63% of total revenue [6] Profitability Analysis - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 26.0% and 10.2%, down 3.29 and 16.68 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, due to the significant decline in profits from its associate, Blue Lithium Industry [8] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved slightly to 29.7%, while the net margin was 13.8%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.83 percentage points [9] Cash Flow and Expenses - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 557 million yuan, a decrease of 174 million yuan compared to the previous year [8] - The financial expense ratio increased significantly to 5.1% in Q1 2025 due to substantial exchange losses, while other expense ratios were well-controlled [9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see gradual profit recovery in 2025, with revised net profit forecasts of 1.52 billion and 1.68 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [11] - The company is actively expanding its overseas building materials business, with production bases established in multiple African countries and plans for further capacity increases [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, achieving a net profit of 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.3%, despite a revenue decline of 4.8% to 3.45 billion yuan [5][6] - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to enhanced production efficiency and a shift in channel structure, with the gross margin reaching 34.3%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [7][8] - The company is actively optimizing its store layout while increasing the number of high-margin direct sales channel stores [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown by product: cabinets 980 million yuan (-8.5%), wardrobes 1.8 billion yuan (-5.6%), bathrooms 220 million yuan (+9.7%), wooden doors 220 million yuan (+1.0%) [6] - Revenue by channel: direct sales 160 million yuan (+10.2%), distribution 2.59 billion yuan (-1.3%), bulk sales 500 million yuan (-28.6%) [6] Profitability Metrics - Q1 2025 gross margin by product: cabinets 29.7% (+4.1 pcts), wardrobes 39.8% (+4.2 pcts), bathrooms 24.1% (+2.8 pcts), wooden doors 21.2% (+6.2 pcts) [7] - Q1 2025 gross margin by channel: direct sales 55.6% (+2.5 pcts), distribution 35.4% (+3.5 pcts), bulk sales 17.4% (+1.5 pcts) [7] Future Projections - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly raised to 2.84 billion yuan, 3.20 billion yuan, and 3.52 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 3%, 5%, and 6% [8][9] - Projected EPS for 2025-2027 are 4.67 yuan, 5.26 yuan, and 5.78 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 11 times [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Suzhou Bank [1] Core Views - Suzhou Bank achieved a revenue of 12.2 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.1 billion, up 10.2% year-on-year [3] - The bank's credit maintains double-digit growth, with loans increasing by 12.7% year-on-year as of Q1 2025, and a steady expansion of its asset scale [5] - The bank's non-interest income growth has slowed but remains stable at around 35% of total revenue [9] - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.83% at the end of 2024 [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Suzhou Bank's operating income was 12.2 billion, with a net profit of 5.1 billion, reflecting a 3% and 10.2% increase year-on-year respectively [3] - For Q1 2025, the bank reported operating income of 3.25 billion, a 0.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.55 billion, up 6.8% year-on-year [3] Revenue and Profitability - The bank's net interest income decreased by 6.8% in 2024, while non-interest income grew by 27.6% [4] - The bank's cost-to-income ratio was 36.4% in 2024, with credit impairment losses at 9.2% of revenue [4] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio was 0.83% at the end of 2024, with a coverage ratio of 447% [10][11] - The bank's credit risk management remains robust, with a significant reduction in new non-performing loans [10] Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, the bank's core tier 1 capital ratio was 9.8%, indicating a solid capital base for future growth [11] - The bank's capital adequacy ratios are well above regulatory requirements, providing a strong buffer for potential risks [11] Future Outlook - The bank is expected to continue its expansion in both corporate and retail lending, with a focus on manufacturing and small micro-enterprises [5] - The report anticipates stable growth in non-interest income and improvements in asset quality, supporting sustainable development [12][13]