2026 年 2 月 4 日 公司研究 实控人首次增持公司股份，彰显未来发展信心 ——恒力石化（600346.SH）公告点评 要点 事件：公司发布《关于实际控制人首次增持暨增持公司股份的进展公告》， 2026 年 2 月 3 日，公司实际控制人之一陈建华先生以自有资金，采取集中竞价交易 方式首次增持公司股份 13,447,369 股，占公司总股本的 0.19%，累计增持金额 为 32,997.02 万元（不含佣金、过户费等交易费用）。 点评： 实控人首次增持公司股份，彰显未来发展信心。公司 2025 年 4 月 9 日发布《关 于实际控制人增持公司股份计划的公告》，实际控制人之一陈建华先生计划自 2025 年 4 月 9 日起 12 个月内，以自有资金或自筹资金通过上海证券交易所交 易系统以集中竞价交易方式增持本公司股份，增持金额不低于人民币 5 亿元，不 超过人民币 10 亿元。2026 年 2 月 3 日，公司实际控制人首次增持公司股份。 公司作为国内领先的民营炼化一体化企业，其实际控制人之一陈建华先生此次增 持未导致公司控制权结构发生变化，公司治理结构保持稳定。自 2025 年 7 月中 下旬以来，随着 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer (600132.SH) [5] Core Views - In 2025, Chongqing Beer achieved operating revenue of 14.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.23 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a slight increase in sales volume of 0.68% in 2025, despite a challenging market environment where the overall beer industry production decreased by 1.1% [1][2] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.66 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, and a reduction in net loss compared to the previous year [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the company reported a net profit of 1.23 billion yuan, with a decrease in non-recurring net profit by 2.8% to 1.19 billion yuan [1] - The fourth quarter showed a significant improvement in sales and pricing, with sales volume and price per ton increasing by 2.84% and 1.96% respectively compared to the previous year [2] - The company benefited from a favorable scale effect and a legal settlement, which positively impacted its net profit by approximately 19.08 million yuan [2] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that policies promoting service consumption will support the recovery of on-premise consumption, leading to stable growth in beer consumption [3] - The company's strong brand management capabilities are expected to shine through as external pressures ease [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for Chongqing Beer for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1.23 billion, 1.28 billion, and 1.32 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 3%, 1%, and 1% [3] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 2.54, 2.64, and 2.73 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21x for 2025 and 2026, and 20x for 2027 [3][4]

2026 年 2 月 4 日 公司研究 工业 X 射线检测设备龙头，下游高景气度、国产替代趋势双轮驱动 ——日联科技（688531.SH）首次覆盖报告 要点 工业 X 射线检测设备龙头企业。日联科技是国内领先的工业 X 射线智能检测设 备及核心部件供应商，为国家级专精特新"小巨人"。2019–2024 年，公司收 入 CAGR 约 38%，归母净利润 CAGR 约 77%。产品覆盖全球 70+国家和地区， 2025H1 海外收入占比首次超过 10%。 行业：下游应用广泛，需求持续扩容。根据日联科技 2025 年半年报援引沙利文 咨询数据，预计 2025–2030 年全球工业 X 射线检测设备市场规模 CAGR 约 9.9%， 中国市场规模 CAGR 约 10.3%；预计 2030 年该领域全球市场规模有望突破千亿 元，中国市场规模有望突破 300 亿元。 公司：丰富产品线，开展收并购。公司已构建"检测设备+AI 软件+射线源"一 体化产品线，已形成百余款标准化设备。集成电路与电子制造领域，业务已覆盖 头部 PCB/PCBA 客户，市占率位居国内前列。新能源电池方面，公司设备覆盖 动力/储能/消费电池在线与离线 ...

2026 年 2 月 4 日 总量研究 从地方两会看稳增长"路线图" ——2025 年中央经济工作会议精神学习第二篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 充分挖掘经济潜能，苦练内功应对挑战—— 2025 年中央经济工作会议精神学习 （2025-12-12） 积极有为，实现"十五五"良好开局—— 2025 年 12 月政治局会议精神学习（2025- 12-09） "十五五"高水平对外开放的战略升级—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告四（2025- 11-19） 理解"十五五"规划的三个定量指标—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告三（2025- 10-29） 坚持高质量发展，续写奇迹新篇章——二十 届四中全会公报精神学习暨《"十五五"规 划》系列报告二（2025-10-24） "十五五"规划的三条主线、五个猜想—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告一（2025- 09-28） 巩固经济和资本市场回稳向好势头 ...

2026 年 2 月 4 日 公司盈利预测与估值简表 公司研究 1 月销量承压，静待 AI 应用场景逐步兑现 ——小鹏汽车（XPEV.N）跟踪报告 要点 1 月交付量数据披露：2 月 1 日小鹏汽车披露 1 月交付量数据，1 月小鹏汽车交 付量同比-34.1%/环比-46.6%至 20,011 辆。我们判断，小鹏汽车 1 月销量承压 主要由于补贴政策退坡、新老产品切换导致。 一车双能战略升级，关注四大物理 AI 产品量产落地：1 月 8 日小鹏召开 2026 全球新品发布会，以"AI 驱动全球化出行革新"为核心，1）正式发布四款新车： 2026 款 P7+（纯电+超级增程）、G7 超级增程、2026 款 G6、2026 款 G9，其 中，P7+与 G7 首次引入超级增程版本；2）宣布 2026 年小鹏品牌规划，主要包 含第二代 VLA（实现从视觉信号到动作指令的端到端直接生成，预计 1Q26E 上 车）、Robotaxi（搭载第二代 VLA 并已通过第三方测试机构场地测试，将于 2026 年开启运营）、人形机器人（量产版已完成首台下线测试，将于 2026 年规模量 产）、飞行汽车（将于 2026 年规模量产） ...

2026 年 2 月 4 日 4、业务进展：AI 应用与自动驾驶持续推进，商业化仍处早期。自 25Q3 起公 司开始单独披露 AI 应用进展，涵盖文库、网盘、企业级 AI 工具及出海产品 等，对其商业化前景持偏积极态度，强调其与 AI 云、昆仑芯的协同效应。自 动驾驶方面，Robotaxi 订单量保持加速增长，公司已公告与 Uber、Lyft 达 成合作，并明确将于英国推进无人驾驶出租车试运行，标志着其国际化布局迈 出实质性一步；但相关业务仍处于投入与规模扩张阶段，对短期业绩贡献有限。 5、昆仑芯：自研算力平台协同价值提升，短期仍以战略支撑为主。昆仑芯作 为百度自研 AI 芯片与算力平台的重要组成部分，市场关注度持续提升。昆仑 芯深度参与百度智能云的整体交付，同时开始面向通信、金融、能源、制造等 行业，成为"云+算力"解决方案的一部分。26 年初公司公告建议分拆昆仑芯 独立上市，旨在提升昆仑芯在客户、供应商及潜在战略合作伙伴中的形象，并 增强其在业务谈判中的地位，使公司可通过持有的股份受益于昆仑芯的增长。 盈利预测、估值与评级：AI 原生广告提升传统搜索广告变现能力；自研大模 型+计算平台+自研芯片形成软硬协 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Add" [6] Core Insights - In January 2026, the top 10 real estate companies showed a relatively better sales performance compared to the broader market, with a year-on-year sales decline of 12% for the top 10 and 25% for the top 100 companies [1][9] - The sales figures for January 2026 indicate that the top 10 companies had total sales of 89.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%, while the top 100 companies had total sales of 182.2 billion yuan, down 24.7% year-on-year [1][36] - The report highlights a significant disparity in sales performance among different tiers of real estate companies, with the top 10 companies outperforming others [1][5] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In January 2026, the total sales amount for the top 10 real estate companies was 89.4 billion yuan, with equity sales of 63 billion yuan and a sales area of 4.21 million square meters, reflecting year-on-year changes of -11.9%, -16.2%, and -18.8% respectively [1][9] - The top 100 companies reported total sales of 182.2 billion yuan, equity sales of 128.6 billion yuan, and a sales area of 8.6 million square meters, with year-on-year declines of -24.7%, -28.5%, and -29.5% respectively [1][36] Market Concentration - The market share of the top 100 real estate companies in 2025 was 29.4%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The sales concentration ratios for the top 10, 20, 50, and 100 companies were 14.4%, 19.2%, 25.2%, and 29.4% respectively, all showing a decline compared to the previous year [3][51] Notable Performers - Among the 20 mainstream real estate companies, 6 reported positive year-on-year sales growth in January 2026, with notable performances from China State Construction (320.3% increase) and China Overseas Property (20.5% increase) [4][57] - The report indicates that 44 out of 50 top companies had a median year-on-year sales decline of 17.0% in January 2026, with 38.6% of these companies experiencing declines of over 30% [2][44] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Real estate companies with strong regional development capabilities and high product reputation, such as China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao [5][65] 2. Public REITs with rich existing resources and strong operational brands, such as China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [5][65] 3. Long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jiyu and China Resources Vientiane Life [5][65]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Hisense Visual Technology with a target price of 29.87 CNY, based on its strong market position and growth potential [5][7][15]. Core Insights - Hisense Visual Technology is a leading global provider of display solutions, focusing on high-end markets and technological innovation. The company aims to enhance its global market share through a multi-scenario display strategy, covering home, commercial, and automotive applications [1][3][24]. - The company has achieved significant growth in both domestic and international markets, with a projected revenue of 58.5 billion CNY and a net profit of 2.2 billion CNY for 2024. Its global TV shipment market share is expected to reach 14.9% by mid-2025 [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hisense Visual Technology is a top-tier display technology provider, focusing on innovation in LCD, laser display, and LED technologies. The company has a comprehensive product range, including TVs and commercial displays, and is expanding into next-generation technologies like 8K and Mini/Micro LED [24][25]. Competitive Position in China - In the first half of 2025, Hisense's online and offline retail market shares in China reached 24.1% and 29.6%, respectively, showing significant growth since 2019. The launch of the Vidda brand has targeted younger consumers, contributing to a 11% market share in online retail by 2024 [2][3][5]. Global Expansion Strategy - Hisense's international revenue has grown from 5.8 billion CNY in 2013 to 28 billion CNY in 2024, accounting for 48% of total revenue. The company aims to become the world's leading TV brand, with a market share of 14.9% in global shipments by mid-2025 [3][5][24]. Business Model and Governance - The company underwent a mixed-ownership reform in 2020, introducing strategic investors to enhance operational efficiency. The implementation of employee stock ownership plans aims to align employee interests with company performance [4][6][24]. Financial Performance and Projections - Hisense's revenue is projected to grow from 53.6 billion CNY in 2023 to 74.3 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.43%. The net profit is expected to increase from 2.1 billion CNY in 2023 to 3 billion CNY in 2027 [6][15][5]. Valuation and Investment Thesis - The report concludes that Hisense's strong brand influence and continuous technological advancements justify a target price of 29.87 CNY, supported by both relative and absolute valuation methods [5][15].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market sentiment is currently high, with over 60% of stocks in the CSI 300 index showing an upward trend, indicating a bullish outlook for the near future [2] - The momentum sentiment indicators are trending upwards, suggesting a sustained positive market environment [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - In the coal, steel, float glass, cement, and fuel refining sectors, profit sentiment is expected to decline year-on-year [3] - The inventory of breeding sows is decreasing significantly, leading to a tighter supply forecast for Q2 2026, which may support a recovery in pig prices [3] - The PMI remains stable, indicating no significant changes in the cyclical industries monitored [3] Group 3: Automotive Sector - The performance of new energy vehicles in January was weak, prompting automakers to increase purchase incentives [4] - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile for whole vehicles and Fuyao Glass for components, alongside Top Group and Shuanglin Co. for humanoid robots [4] Group 4: Real Estate Sector - Multiple cities have initiated old housing buyback programs, accelerating the "old for new" exchange, which is expected to stabilize the housing market [5] - Notable companies recommended include China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao, which are positioned as leading brands in the real estate sector [5] Group 5: Chemical Industry - Qicai Chemical and Huanliang Technology have established an AI laboratory to enhance product development efficiency, marking a shift from experience-driven to model-driven approaches in the chemical industry [6] - Companies like Sinopec, Wanhua Chemical, and Qicai Chemical are highlighted for their potential in leveraging AI for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [6]

- The "Market Sentiment Tracking" system is based on quantitative empirical analysis, utilizing historical data to construct a sentiment prosperity indicator system derived from price and volume data[11] - The "Proportion of Rising Stocks Sentiment Indicator" is calculated as the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over the past N days, reflecting market optimism or overheating[12] - The "Proportion of Rising Stocks Timing Strategy" applies two different smoothing windows (N1=50, N2=35) to the sentiment indicator, generating buy signals when the short-term line exceeds the long-term line[13][15] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" uses an eight-moving-average system (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) to assess the CSI 300 index trend, assigning values of -1, 0, or 1 based on the indicator's range[21][25] - The "PB-ROE-50 Strategy" identifies expectation gaps in the market by leveraging the PB-ROE pricing model and enhancing returns with factors like SUE and ROE growth, constructing a portfolio of 50 stocks[30] - The "Institutional Research Strategy" includes public and private fund research strategies, selecting stocks based on the frequency of institutional research and pre-research stock performance relative to benchmarks[37] - The "Concentration Fund Separation Degree" uses the cross-sectional standard deviation of returns for concentrated fund portfolios as a proxy for fund concentration, with lower standard deviation indicating higher concentration[26] - The "Relaxed Interest-Bearing Debt Ratio" is calculated as the ratio of a broader set of liabilities (including short-term borrowings, interest payables, and other liabilities) to total assets, offering more short-selling opportunities compared to traditional metrics[41] - The "Financial Cost Burden Ratio" measures the pressure of interest payments on companies by dividing interest expenses by EBIT, providing a clearer view of financial stress[45]