Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) with a current price of HKD 7.83 [1] Core Insights - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of USD 5.764 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1%. The normalized EBITDA was USD 1.588 billion, down 9.8% year-on-year. In Q4 2025, revenue was USD 1.073 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 4.2% [5] - The company plans to distribute dividends of USD 750 million for 2025, unchanged from 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For 2025, Budweiser APAC achieved a total sales volume of 796.58 million hectoliters, down 6.0% year-on-year. The revenue per hectoliter for the year decreased by 0.2% [5] - In Q4 2025, the sales volume was 135.18 million hectoliters, with a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year. Revenue per hectoliter fell by 3.5% [5] Regional Performance - In the Western Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 sales volume grew by 0.1% year-on-year, but revenue and revenue per hectoliter declined by 5.6% and 5.7%, respectively. Normalized EBITDA in this region fell by 40.0% year-on-year [6] - The Indian market showed strong growth, with high-end and super high-end products accounting for over two-thirds of total revenue, contributing more than 20% to revenue growth [6] - In the Eastern Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 revenue declined by 0.6% year-on-year, with sales volume down 3.7%. Revenue per hectoliter increased by 3.2% [6] China Market Focus - The Chinese market remains under pressure, with Q4 2025 sales volume down 3.9% year-on-year, primarily due to weak on-the-go channels and delayed shipments related to the Lunar New Year [7] - The company is increasing investments in channel and product mix expansion, focusing on high-end and digital channel strategies for 2026 [8] Profitability Forecast - The report lowers the net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 to USD 621 million and USD 680 million, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 9% and 7% [8] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 21x for 2026, 20x for 2027, and 18x for 2028, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's competitive advantage in high-end and super high-end segments [8]

Macro Analysis - The January non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, primarily driven by recovery in the private sector, with both production and service sectors showing significant job growth, indicating signs of stabilization in the US economy [1] - The improvement in employment aligns with the recent upward trends in US manufacturing and services PMI, suggesting a positive economic outlook [1] - Given the strong employment performance, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the first quarter is low [1] Industry Research - The implementation of the national electricity market framework "Document No. 4" highlights the importance of base-load power sources and the continuous improvement of business models among various participants [2] - The green electricity environment premium is gradually being confirmed, promoting the enhancement of overall consumption across various application scenarios [2] - Key investment opportunities include Long Jiang Power and Huaneng International, as well as Electric Investment Green Energy and Jinkai New Energy, with a focus on the carbon market and expanding application scenarios [2] Company Research - Xidi Zhijia (3881.HK) is positioned to benefit significantly from the scaling of autonomous mining trucks, with projections indicating a Non-IFRS net loss of 76 million yuan in 2025, followed by net profits of 75 million and 357 million yuan in 2026 and 2027 respectively [3] - The company is expected to maintain its industry-leading position due to its advantages in technology, scenarios, and commercialization [3] - The initial coverage of Xidi Zhijia is rated as "Buy" [3] Internet Media - NetEase Cloud Music (9899.HK) focuses on differentiated music content and exceptional product functionality, with an emphasis on expanding its membership base [4] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been lowered to 2.21 billion and 2.47 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 15% and 13% from previous estimates [4] - The company is expected to see improved profitability in the medium to long term due to scale effects, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4] Overseas TMT - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) (0981.HK) is experiencing high utilization rates but faces increased depreciation pressure due to new production line investments [5] - The net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted to 1.08 billion and 1.25 billion USD, respectively [5] - The stock is rated as "Buy" for both Hong Kong and A-share markets, benefiting from AI computing demand and domestic substitution trends [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [1]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q4 2025 exceeded expectations, reaching $2.489 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.5%, surpassing the previous guidance range of $2.38 to $2.43 billion [4]. - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 19.2%, slightly below market expectations of 20%, primarily due to rising depreciation costs [4]. - The net profit for Q4 2025 was $203 million, a decline of 24.9% year-over-year and 35.5% quarter-over-quarter [4]. - For the full year 2025, the company achieved a record revenue of $9.327 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16.2%, with a gross margin of 21% [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2025, the revenue breakdown by application showed that consumer electronics accounted for 47.3% of wafer revenue, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.9 percentage points [5]. - The revenue from 12-inch wafers constituted 77.2% of wafer revenue, with a year-over-year decrease of 3.4 percentage points [5]. - Geographically, revenue distribution in Q4 2025 was 87.6% from China, 10.3% from the U.S., and 2.1% from Europe and Asia [5]. Demand and Capacity Insights - The demand for AI and automotive sectors is driving incremental growth, while the supply tightness in consumer electronics storage is expected to improve by the second half of 2026 [6]. - The company maintained a high utilization rate of 95.7% in Q4 2025, with guidance indicating stability for Q1 2026 [7]. - Capital expenditure for Q4 2025 was $2.41 billion, with expectations for 2026 to remain consistent with 2025 levels [7]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2026-2027 has been cautiously adjusted downward, with expected net profits of $1.08 billion and $1.25 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively [8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 3.2x for H-shares and 5.7x for A-shares for the years 2026-2027 [8]. - Despite short-term profit pressures, the core growth logic of benefiting from AI demand and domestic substitution trends remains strong [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music (9899.HK) [5] Core Insights - The company reported 2025 revenue of RMB 7.759 billion, slightly below Bloomberg consensus of RMB 7.913 billion, with a year-over-year decline of 2.4% [1] - Gross profit reached RMB 2.770 billion, a 3.3% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 35.7%, slightly below the expected 36.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.860 billion, a significant increase of 68.2% year-over-year, primarily due to the recognition of deferred tax assets [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its differentiated content ecosystem and enhancing product innovation through AI [3] Revenue and Profitability - Online music service revenue was RMB 5.994 billion, up 12.0% year-over-year, with subscription revenue increasing by 13.3% to RMB 5.053 billion [2] - Social entertainment services and other revenue decreased by 32.0% to RMB 1.765 billion, mainly due to the closure of the live streaming feature [2] - The company has seen growth in user scale and engagement, maintaining a DAU/MAU ratio above 30% [2] Content Strategy and Innovation - The company continues to strengthen its differentiated content ecosystem by deepening partnerships with domestic and international copyright holders, introducing K-POP labels, and enhancing its original content offerings [3] - The independent musician ecosystem has grown to over 1 million registered musicians, with more than 5.6 million tracks uploaded [3] - AI-driven product innovations, such as the Climber recommendation model and various interactive tools, have improved user experience [3] Cost Management - Sales expenses decreased by 33.2% to RMB 409 million, reflecting a more prudent approach to advertising and promotion [4] - Management and R&D expenses also saw slight reductions, contributing to overall cost control [4] Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been revised down to RMB 2.210 billion and RMB 2.467 billion, respectively, reflecting a 15% and 13% decrease from previous estimates [4] - The report anticipates a long-term improvement in profitability due to scale effects [4]

2026 年 2 月 12 日 行业研究 电改"4 号文"：全国统一电力市场顶层文件 ——碳中和领域动态跟踪（一百七十三） 要点 从"5 号文"到"4 号文"，电力市场化持续推进。2002 年"5 号文"确定电改 雏形，提出 1）厂网分开重组国有电力资产，2）竞价上网实行电价新机制，开 启电力市场化改革。2015 年"9 号文"进一步加快上网电价市场化的步伐，明 确 1）输配电价改革，2）电力市场建设，3）电力交易结构，4）有序放开发用 电计划，5）售电侧改革等方向。此次《国务院办公厅关于完善全国统一电力市 场体系的实施意见》（"4 号文"）继"9 号文"之后电力体制改革的又一里程 碑式顶层设计，确定 1）推进全国统一电力市场：2030 年基本建成统一市场， 除保障性用户外全主体入市，市场化电量占比 70%左右；2035 年全面建成，反 映电能量、调节、环境、容量的多维价值。2）推动电力资源在全国范围内优化 配置：打通国网、南网经营区间交易通道，跨经营区常态化交易；从经营主体分 别进行跨省跨区和省内交易，过渡到经营主体只需一次性提出量价需求、电力市 场即可在全国范围内分解匹配供需的联合交易模式。3）健全电力市 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Xidi Zhijia (3881.HK) with a "Buy" rating [3][13]. Core Insights - Xidi Zhijia is positioned as a leading provider of autonomous driving technology and solutions for commercial vehicles, focusing on mining trucks and logistics vehicles. The company is one of the first in China to achieve "no safety personnel normal operation" for autonomous mining trucks and logistics vehicles [1][20]. - The market for autonomous mining truck solutions in China is projected to reach CNY 1.9 billion by 2024, with a total potential market size of CNY 550 billion. The market is expected to grow to CNY 39.6 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 65.3% from 2024 to 2030 [2][39]. - Xidi Zhijia has three core advantages: technological differentiation, strong scene integration capabilities, and rapid commercialization, which are expected to solidify its leading position in the industry [3][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2017, Xidi Zhijia focuses on autonomous driving technology for commercial vehicles, particularly in mining and logistics. The company has developed the world's largest mixed fleet of autonomous mining trucks without safety personnel [1][20]. Market Potential - The autonomous mining truck market is anticipated to expand significantly, driven by increasing demand for intelligent mining solutions and the maturity of technology. The penetration rate of autonomous mining trucks in mining transportation is expected to rise, enhancing market size and commercialization [2][39]. Business Model and Revenue - Xidi Zhijia's core business includes three segments: autonomous driving, V2X solutions, and intelligent perception. The autonomous driving segment accounted for 92.7% of revenue in the first half of 2025, primarily due to the commercialization of mining trucks [33][34]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts indicate a significant increase, with expected revenues of CNY 978 million in 2025, CNY 1.98 billion in 2026, and CNY 3.46 billion in 2027. The company is projected to achieve Non-IFRS net profits of CNY 0.75 million in 2026 and CNY 3.57 million in 2027 [4][13]. Competitive Landscape - Xidi Zhijia is distinguished from competitors by its product-driven model, which mitigates operational risks and enhances product development efficiency. The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge through superior technology and integration capabilities [10][11]. Catalysts for Growth - Short-term catalysts include the company's inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, acquisition of new orders for autonomous mining trucks, and progress in partnerships with OEMs. Long-term catalysts involve increased penetration of autonomous mining trucks and expansion into overseas markets [12][13].

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 70,000 and the revised previous value of 48,000[1] - The unemployment rate in January 2026 was 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous value of 4.4%[1] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value and slightly above the expected 3.6%[1] Economic Indicators - The increase in non-farm employment was primarily driven by the private sector, with significant contributions from both goods production and service sectors[2] - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.5%, up from 62.4% in the previous month, indicating a recovery in employment willingness among middle-aged groups[4] - Temporary unemployment decreased by 83,000, reflecting increased demand for labor, while permanent unemployment saw a slight increase of 38,000[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Given the strong employment data, the Federal Reserve's focus is expected to shift towards inflation, reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026[5] - Market expectations indicate a 94% probability of no rate cuts in March 2026, with potential cuts in June and October at probabilities of 49.4% and 34.8%, respectively[5][24] Sector Performance - The construction sector added 33,000 jobs in January, a significant recovery from a previous loss of 4,000 jobs, driven by lower mortgage rates and housing reforms[3] - The professional and business services sector saw an increase in temporary jobs from 6,000 to 9,000, indicating strong demand in the part-time job market[3]

2026 年 2 月 12 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】涨价开始向下游传导——2026 年 1 月价格数据点评 1 月受春节错月、鲜菜价格超季节性下跌影响，CPI 同比涨幅明显回落，但上行趋势 依然延续。一是，原材料涨价对下游耐用消费品传导持续；二是，中央一号文件指出 "强化生猪产能综合调控"，或加快生猪去产能进程，预计下半年猪价有望温和改善。 PPI 方面，环比涨幅明显加快，涨价领域进一步扩散，与输入性影响扩大以及国内"反 内卷"政策深化有关，预计二季度 PPI 同比有望回正。 【宏观】如何解读 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告——2025Q4 货币政策执行报告 学习体会 2025Q4 货政报告中，央行肯定了国内经济工作成果和物价回升的积极变化，对 2026 年国内经济增长较为乐观。货币政策基调不变，提出要稳定短端利率，可能顺应推出 相应政策工具；降息更需要"择时"，但应关注汇率持续升值对货币政策调节的影响； 重申货币政策和财政政策的协同配合，关注到"大资管"行业内部资金流动产生的摩 擦，流动性总体无忧，利好国内股债市场。风险提示：货币宽松力度不及预期，财政 政策落地进度不及预期 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [3][6]. Core Insights - The company, Kingboard Laminates (1888.HK), is a leading manufacturer of copper-clad laminates with a vertically integrated supply chain, maintaining a global market share of 14.4% in 2024, the highest in the industry [2][3]. - The demand for copper-clad laminates is expected to grow due to the robust expansion of the PCB industry, driven by applications in AI servers, consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and communication devices [1][41]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from rising copper prices and a tight supply environment, which are expected to enhance both pricing and profitability [2][3]. Company Overview - Kingboard Laminates was established in 1988 and has evolved into a major player in the copper-clad laminate market, with over 60 factories globally and a strong presence in South China and East China [1][16]. - The company specializes in various types of copper-clad laminates, including FR-4 epoxy glass fiber laminates, which are crucial for mainstream markets such as computers and communications [2][25]. Market Position - The copper-clad laminate market is characterized by high concentration, with the top four manufacturers holding approximately 50% of the market share, indicating significant barriers to entry and strong pricing power for established players [2][70]. - The report highlights that the company has a strong bargaining power due to its diversified customer base, with the top five customers accounting for less than 30% of total sales [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 2.17 billion, HKD 3.95 billion, and HKD 4.84 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 64%, 82%, and 22% [3][5]. - The report indicates that the company's stock is currently undervalued compared to its peers, with projected P/E ratios of 27x, 15x, and 12x for the years 2025 to 2027 [3][5]. Industry Analysis - The PCB industry is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% from 2024 to 2029, with the total market value projected to reach USD 94.66 billion by 2029 [1][44]. - The demand for high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates is increasing, particularly in the AI server sector, which requires advanced materials to support higher data transmission rates [2][67].

CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year growth rate dropped to +0.2%, down from +0.8% in the previous month, and below the market expectation of +0.4%[2] - The food prices decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, compared to an increase of 1.1% in the previous month, contributing to a decline of 0.32 percentage points in CPI[4] - The core CPI year-on-year growth rate fell to +0.8%, down from +1.2% in the previous month, influenced by the Spring Festival timing[5] PPI Analysis - The PPI month-on-month growth rate increased to +0.4% in January 2026, up from +0.2% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase[6] - The year-on-year PPI decline narrowed to -1.4%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The prices in the non-ferrous metal mining sector rose by 5.7% month-on-month, driven by international price increases[6] Market Outlook - The upward trend in CPI is expected to continue, supported by rising raw material prices affecting durable consumer goods[3] - The central government's focus on regulating pig production capacity is anticipated to lead to a moderate improvement in pork prices in the second half of the year, supporting CPI readings[3] - The PPI is projected to turn positive year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, influenced by global commodity price increases and domestic policy adjustments[11]