2025 年 04 月 20 日 再论黄金坑：缩量≠二次探底 本周上证指数涨 1.19%，沪深 300 涨 0.59%。本周全 A 日均交易额 11087 亿， 环比上周有所下降。近两周各类核心 ETF 共计流入近 2000 亿，成为市场主导 性增量资金，同时近期上证综指九连阳充分体现维稳资金在资本市场发挥"定 海神针"的作用。在此，我们再次重申对于市场的观点：在此前周报《这是一个 "黄金坑"！》提出类似于去年九月下旬，全球经济大衰退存在过度演绎的可能， 大盘指数节后有望面临"年内黄金坑"。在市场大跌后，风险偏好逐步修复，并对 边际利空钝化，我们在上周周报《坑底明确！爬坑关键词是：半导体》予以明确。 在本周市场爬坑的过程中，市场开始高度关注到 A 股成交额延续缩量趋势，本 周五（4 月 18 日）缩量至 9491 亿元，创下了 2024 年 9 月 24 日以来的最低 值。事实上，本轮"黄金坑"过程中，上证综指从最低位 3040 附近修复至 3250 上方。对比来看，自 924 行情 A 股急涨后转入震荡市，上证综指运行区间大致 在 3100-3500 点，而本轮反弹行情中，我们会明确感知到大盘指数接近对等关 ...

2025 年 04 月 20 日 生物医药Ⅱ 新药周观点：口服 GLP-1 小分子糖尿病 3 期临床成功，胰岛素前用药全程口服 化可期 本周新药行情回顾： 2025 年 4 月 14 日-2025 年 4 月 20 日，新药板块涨幅前 5 企业：博 安生物（68.01%）、复宏汉霖（18.71%）、君圣泰（16.20%）、诺思 兰德（11.00%）、益方生物（10.48%），跌幅前 5 企业：友芝友（- 21.19%）、北海康成（-16.57%）、艾迪药业（-9.48%）、歌礼制药 （-7.84%）、海思科（-7.54%）。 本周新药行业重点分析： 近日礼来公布了口服 GLP-1 小分子 Orforglipron 针对糖尿病患者的 3 期临床 ACHIEVE-1 研究的积极结果。 既往主流的 9 大类糖尿病药物中有 7 类药物为口服给药，口服 GLP- 1 小分子的成功有望进一步增加可口服给药糖尿病药物数量，实现糖 尿病患者在最后使用胰岛素之前的其他类型用药全程口服化，考虑到 慢病患者口服给药带来的用药依存性提升，以及口服 GLP-1 小分子 相对口服 GLP-1 多肽的成本优势，我们认为口服 GLP-1 小 ...

2025 年 04 月 20 日 平安银行(000001.SZ) 压力犹存——平安银行 2025 年一季报点评 事件：平安银行公布 2025 年一季报，营收同比增长-13.1%，拨 备前利润同比增长-12.9%,归母净利润同比增长-5.6%，各项业绩 指标较 2024 年报增速均有所回落，我们点评如下： 平安银行今年一季报业绩增长拖累因素主要在于生息资产同比 收缩、净息差下行、非息收入增长放缓；拨备计提同比减轻与税 收减少则对利润增长形成支撑。 生息资产扩张乏力。今年一季度，平安银行生息资产（日均余 额口径）同比增速为-0.15%，连续 2 个季度为负增长，并且从 2023 年开启结构转型以来，资产负债表扩张较为乏力，目前来看这种 迹象也并未改善。观察今年一季度的数据，信贷、债券投资等主 要的生息资产科目均增长较慢，同业业务增长尚可，较慢的扩表 速度也给营收增长、客群经营、市场份额的稳定带来压力。 进一步观察信贷增长趋势。①从日均余额口径来看，信贷同比增速为 -1.41%，其中一般对公信贷增长较快，而票据贴现、零售信贷仍为负 增长，并且 Q1 新增信贷规模同样呈现"一般对公贷款强、零售与票据 贴现弱"的特征。 ...

2025 年 04 月 20 日 低位震荡，下行风险或有限 本期要点：低位震荡，下行风险或有限 上期提到，A 股或已企稳，随后超跌的科技成长方向或有可能迎来机 会。事后来看，除了银行地产之外，半导体板块上期表现也相对不错。 考虑到大盘前期已经出现了八连阳，而周五则出现了小幅阴线，短期 大盘或将转入震荡格局。但是与此同时，当前主要宽基指数的高频温 度计和低频温度计均值都小于 34，这意味着当前市场整体处于偏低 位，下行风险或有限。 上期我们曾将本轮反弹的技术面背景与春节前进行类比，并认为本轮 反弹有望因为近期国内政策面的加持而最终使得市场震荡向上。因 此，即使未来在低位震荡过程中出现了二次探底形态，都应该以积极 的心态来寻找机会。 行业板块上，在当前低位震荡过程中，模型建议偏均衡配置电子、计 算机、机械设备、地产、建筑装饰、交通运输、银行等板块。在具体 指标维度上，我们观察到从成交金额占比的角度看，过去两周内 TMT 板块的成交占比已有从低点小幅回升的迹象，消费板块的成交占比则 已经从底部回升了近两个月。 此外，从行业相对温度计这一性价比角度看，当前以电子板块为主的 成长板块仍然处于偏低（对应性价比越高）位置， ...

2025 年 04 月 20 日 晶方科技(603005.SH) 汽车 CIS 业务高增长，盈利弹性持续释 1）2024 年公司实现销售收入 11.30 亿元，同比+23.72%；实现营业 利润 2.88 亿元，同比+79.03%；实现归母净利润 2.53 亿元，同比 +68.40%。 2）24 年四季度公司实现销售收入 3 亿元，同比+29.66%；实现营业 利润 0.72 亿元，同比+185.58%；实现归母净利润 0.68 亿元，同比 +73.23%。 费用率管控有效，盈利能力显著提升 2024 年公司综合毛利率为 43.28%，同比+5.13pcts，其中芯片封装及 测试/光学器件/设计业务的毛利率分别为 44.83%/37.26%/67.73%， 同比+9.06/-5.72/+29.74pcts；公司销售/管理/研发费用率分别为 0.58%/8.25%/14.12%,同比-0.34/+0.22/-0.75pcts；公司净利率为 22.39%，同比+5.93pcts。 CMOS 晶圆级封装技术领先，车用领域实现快速增长 公司专注高端封装，拥有 WLCSP、TSV 等先进封装技术，具备 8 英寸、 12 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company with a target price of 7.65 CNY for the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company, Silver Dragon Co., Ltd., is a leading manufacturer of prestressed steel products with a strong competitive edge and a diversified business model that spans the entire industry chain, including production, technology, and investment operations [1][10]. - The company has seen significant growth in revenue and profit, with a 2023 revenue of 2.749 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.57%, and a net profit of 172 million CNY, up 65.18% year-on-year [1][36]. - The company is actively expanding its high-value product offerings, which have led to improved profitability and a more favorable business structure [2][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Silver Dragon Co., Ltd. has been in operation for 47 years and has developed strong technical, brand, and project resource competitiveness in the prestressed steel industry [1][17]. - The company has a comprehensive product matrix that includes prestressed steel, concrete products, and a focus on both traditional infrastructure and emerging energy sectors [1][20]. Business Highlights - The company has established a multi-level product system, focusing on high-value products that drive profitability [2][48]. - It has achieved significant growth in its concrete products segment, with revenue doubling in 2023 and further increasing in 2024 [3][31]. - The company has a strong presence in overseas markets, exporting to over 90 countries, with approximately 30% of its revenue coming from international sales [8][10]. Industry Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for infrastructure investment in China, particularly in railways and water conservancy projects, which are expected to drive demand for the company's products [9][10]. - The penetration rate of high-value products like the CRTSⅢ type railway track slab is anticipated to increase, benefiting from domestic policy support for infrastructure development [9][10]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.112 billion CNY, 3.676 billion CNY, and 4.220 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 241 million CNY, 327 million CNY, and 428 million CNY [10][13]. - The report indicates a favorable valuation with a projected PE ratio of 21.1x for 2024, decreasing to 11.9x by 2026, reflecting the company's growth potential [10][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changshu Automotive Trim is "Buy-A" with a target price of 17.64 CNY for the next six months [7][12]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved significant revenue growth in Q1 2025, driven by its core customers and the expansion of its new energy vehicle (NEV) business [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates due to the continuous ramp-up of NEV clients and the establishment of new production bases [5][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.667 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 23.23%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 425 million CNY, down 22.08% [1][2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.338 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.31%, with a net profit of 88 million CNY, down 16.03% [1][4]. Business Drivers - The growth in revenue is primarily attributed to strong sales from core customer Chery, which sold 2.4689 million vehicles in 2024, up 38.62% year-on-year [2]. - The NEV segment saw significant growth, with revenue from NEV models reaching 2.241 billion CNY in 2024, a 48.11% increase, accounting for 39.54% of total revenue [2]. Cost and Profitability - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 15.53%, a decrease of 4.92 percentage points, mainly due to lower margins during the ramp-up phase of new factories [2]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 14.96%, a slight decrease of 0.36 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued high growth driven by the expansion of NEV clients and the establishment of new production bases in Hefei, Zhaoqing, and Anqing [5][12]. - The company is also expanding its international presence and has made breakthroughs in its exterior parts business, entering the supplier system for BMW [12]. Valuation Metrics - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 560 million CNY, 690 million CNY, and 840 million CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9.4, 7.6, and 6.2 [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating with a target price of 41.08 CNY for the next six months [4][5]. Core Views - The company has shown significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q4 2024, with a notable recovery in its bidding activities expected to enhance future performance [1][3]. - Despite a decline in overall revenue and net profit for 2024, the company’s core business lines outperformed the industry, indicating strong operational capabilities and strategic investments during a challenging market period [2][3]. - The company is anticipated to experience substantial revenue growth in the coming years, with projected growth rates of 22.7%, 21.4%, and 20.5% for 2025 to 2027, respectively [4][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.014 billion CNY, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 140 million CNY, down 68.7% year-on-year [1][10]. - Q4 2024 saw revenue of 620 million CNY, a 60% increase quarter-on-quarter, although it was still down 5.6% year-on-year [1]. Market Position - The company’s ultrasound and endoscope segments generated revenues of 1.18 billion CNY and 795 million CNY in 2024, respectively, both showing declines but outperforming the industry average [2]. - The bidding amounts for the company in Q1 2025 increased by approximately 130% year-on-year, significantly surpassing industry growth rates [3]. Future Projections - The report forecasts a robust recovery in the company's financials, with net profit growth expected to reach 256.6% in 2025, followed by 20.8% and 21.2% in the subsequent years [4][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.17 CNY, with a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 35 times [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating with a target price of 5.5 yuan for the next six months [4][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 20.326 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.4% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 1.602 billion yuan, which is a 0.89% increase compared to the previous year [1][4]. - The global LED chip market is expected to grow by 9% in 2024, reaching approximately 2.96 billion USD, with improvements in the competitive landscape of the industry [2][3]. - The company has established a comprehensive LED industry chain, enhancing its resilience during industry downturns and providing greater growth potential during recoveries [3]. Financial Performance - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 24.188 billion yuan, 27.333 billion yuan, and 30.613 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.076 billion yuan, 2.455 billion yuan, and 2.837 billion yuan [4][13]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve from 7.9% in 2024 to 9.3% by 2027 [14]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the TV market is expected to see a 2% increase in global shipments in 2024, driven by sports events and government incentives in China [2]. - The ODM market for TVs is projected to grow by 5.7% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend for the company's operations in this segment [2]. Business Strategy - The company is effectively integrating resources across multiple business lines, including LED chips, packaging, and lighting products, which enhances operational synergy and market competitiveness [3]. - The vertical integration of the LED supply chain allows the company to leverage its capabilities across different segments, providing a robust framework for growth [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating with a target price of 23.65 CNY for the next six months [4][5]. Core Views - The OLED industry is experiencing a steady increase in operating rates, with a significant upgrade to the 8.6 generation line imminent. The total shipment of OLED panels for smartphones reached 834 million units, with foldable smartphones accounting for 24 million units, marking a 27% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 533 million CNY for 2024, a 3% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 90 million CNY, reflecting a decline of 26.04% [1]. - The company successfully won a bid for a project with BOE for the 8.6 generation AMOLED production line, with a contract value estimated between 600 million to 750 million CNY [2]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 757 million CNY, 1.195 billion CNY in 2026, and 1.733 billion CNY in 2027, with net profits expected to be 164 million CNY, 292 million CNY, and 386 million CNY respectively [4][10]. - The company’s R&D investment reached 150 million CNY, with significant advancements in material and equipment development, including the successful creation of 8.6 generation evaporation source equipment [3]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a core player in the domestic OLED industry, leveraging both equipment and materials to drive growth [7].