旺季化工品价格探涨，重视供需与成本机会 [Table_Industry] 基础化工 ——基础化工行业周报 | [table_Authors] 沈唯(分析师) | 钱伟伦(分析师) | 陈传双(研究助理) | | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-23976795 | 021-38038878 | 021-38676675 | | shenwei024936@gtjas.com | | qianweilun027712@gtjas.com chenchuanshuang027603@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880523080006 | S0880523040003 | S0880123060038 | 本报告导读： 政策端积极化解行业供需阶段性矛盾，推荐业绩有韧性且中长期有成长的周期龙头 及格局优异、需求增长的新材料细分龙头。2025 年，特朗普关税 2.0 正式开启，海 外产能有望重估。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 基础化工《化工品价格景气度复苏，重视供需与 成本机会》2025.02.16 基础化工《老产品供需优化，创制药放量加速》 2025.02.1 ...

AI 应用持续火热，美团京东将为骑手缴纳社保 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 ——商社行业周报（2025.02.17-2025.02.23） | [table_Authors] 刘越男(分析师) | 宋小寒(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 021-38677706 | 010-83939087 | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | songxiaohan026736@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880516030003 | S0880524080011 | 股 票 研 究 本报告导读： AI 应用持续火热，恒生指数公司公布系列季度检讨结果。 投资要点： 化》2025.02.23 社会服务业《春运预定逐步出炉，微信小店开放 群功能》2025.01.26 社会服务业《政策支持文旅消费，永辉天津调改 店销售创新高》2025.01.19 社会服务业《CES 展会热度高、预计春运跨区流 动达 90 亿人次》2025.01.12 社会服务业《日本新设对华 10 年旅游签，微信小 店引爆潮流》2024.12.29 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment outlook for the rocket launch industry, projecting the global market to exceed $50 billion by 2032 [1]. Core Insights - The United States and China lead the global rocket launch market, with the U.S. achieving 116 launches and a 94% success rate in 2023, while China completed 67 launches with a 99% success rate [1]. - The report highlights the trend towards liquid reusable rocket technology, which significantly reduces launch costs. For instance, SpaceX's Falcon 9 has seen a 70% reduction in launch costs through hardware reuse [3]. - The Chinese commercial rocket launch market is expanding rapidly, driven by increasing satellite network demands and a focus on cost reduction through liquid reusable technology and supply chain optimization [4]. Summary by Sections Rocket Design and Components - Rocket design consists of three main parts: propulsion system, guidance and control system, and structural components. Liquid reusable rockets are identified as the future trend due to their advantages over solid fuel rockets [2]. - Liquid fuel rockets offer higher specific impulse and thrust, making them suitable for large-scale missions, while solid fuel rockets are simpler and quicker to prepare but have limitations in performance [2]. Cost Reduction Strategies - SpaceX's experience shows that liquid reusable rocket technology and supply chain management have led to significant cost reductions. The average cost per launch for the Falcon 9 has stabilized around $17 million after multiple reuses [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of scaling supply chains and the establishment of private companies in China's rocket launch sector, which enhances competition and efficiency [4]. Future Market Trends - The Chinese rocket launch market has surpassed 100 billion yuan, with expectations for rapid growth driven by satellite network requirements and a focus on cost efficiency [4]. - The report notes that leading players in China are actively developing liquid reusable rocket technologies, indicating a competitive landscape with independent launch capabilities [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Insights - The company has received multiple product approvals and is set to disclose significant clinical data, with its first domestic TROP2 ADC expected to lead clinical iterations [3][11]. - Merck's continued investment overseas indicates the emerging potential of the next-generation blockbuster products [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 1.732 billion, 1.670 billion, and 2.666 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a slight decrease in 2025 expectations [11]. - The company reported a revenue increase from 804 million RMB in 2022 to 1.540 billion RMB in 2023, representing a 91.6% growth [7]. - The gross profit is expected to rise from 759 million RMB in 2023 to 1.103 billion RMB in 2024 [7]. Product Development - The core product, Lukanasatuzumab, was approved for market release in November 2024, targeting second-line and above triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) [11]. - Additional indications for Lukanasatuzumab are in the NDA stage, with approvals anticipated in 2025 for 3L EGFRm NSCLC and 2L EGFRm NSCLC [11]. - Other products, including Tagolizumab and biosimilars, are also set for approval in early 2025 [11]. Clinical Trials - The company is expected to disclose critical clinical data from ongoing trials, including registration trials for Lukanasatuzumab in various indications [11]. - Merck has initiated 12 key clinical trials for Lukanasatuzumab, indicating its importance in the oncology field [11].

Group 1: Tariff Policy Developments - Two key tariff-related dates in H1 2025: April 1 for the assessment of tariffs and US-China trade relations; April 15 for potential inclusion of tariffs in the fiscal budget resolution[1] - Trump's directive on February 13, 2025, to explore "reciprocal tariffs" indicates a shift in trade policy focus[1] - The proposed Republican budget includes a 10% global tariff and increased tariffs on China, reflecting a potential revenue source for the US government over the next decade[1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Impacts - The US aims to implement "reciprocal tariffs" targeting countries with significant trade surpluses, including India, Thailand, Mexico, and China, with China having a trade surplus of nearly $300 billion with the US[2] - Current average tariff rates: approximately 24% on Chinese exports to the US and over 21% on US exports to China, indicating a higher average tariff imposed by the US[2] - China's reliance on external demand is increasing, with the US contributing 36.4% to China's trade surplus in 2024, surpassing contributions from the EU and ASEAN[3] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The high-end manufacturing sector in China is expected to be less affected by tariff disruptions due to its competitive advantages, including production capacity and cost-effectiveness[3] - The average tariff rate for high-end manufacturing in 2025 is projected to be lower compared to other industries, suggesting resilience against tariff impacts[3] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - Global geopolitical uncertainties and the unpredictability of US tariff policies pose significant risks to trade dynamics[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the photovoltaic industry, indicating a positive outlook as the sector is expected to enter a price increase phase and is currently at a projected bottom position [1][2]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is at a projected bottom, with the fundamentals stabilizing. Positive catalysts from both supply and demand sides are anticipated to emerge, leading to an upward trend in industry prosperity and improved supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. - Key areas of focus include the continuous decline in inventory, which is expected to lead to improved profitability in segments such as batteries, silicon wafers, and photovoltaic glass, as well as leading companies with favorable market positions [1][2]. - Technological advancements are ongoing, with breakthroughs in BC battery efficiency and the gradual application of innovations like copper paste and bifacial technology [1][2]. Summary by Sections - **Price Recovery**: The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a comprehensive price recovery, with major domestic photovoltaic module companies collectively raising prices by 3-5 cents/watt for distributed systems and 2-3 cents/watt for channel customers. Despite being in a seasonal demand lull, inventory levels are healthy, and prices have begun to stabilize [1]. - **Catalysts for Growth**: The report identifies key catalysts for growth, including price recovery across the industry chain, supportive supply-side policies, and accelerated technological breakthroughs [3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a favorable outlook for investment in this area [2]. Core Insights - The capital market is expected to stabilize and improve, driven by the implementation of the new "National Nine Articles" policy framework, which will enhance the entry of medium to long-term funds into the market. This is anticipated to positively impact the fundamentals and valuation recovery of the brokerage sector [1]. - The report highlights that the brokerage sector's profitability is likely to see a significant year-on-year growth of 44% in Q1 2025, supported by increased trading activity, with the average daily trading volume reaching 16,764 billion yuan, a 77.6% increase year-on-year [1]. - The ongoing supply-side reforms in the industry aim to build first-class investment banks and enhance the competitiveness of brokerages. Mergers and acquisitions are being pursued to improve operational efficiency and market leadership [2]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The brokerage sector is experiencing a recovery in trading activity, with a notable increase in daily trading volumes, which is expected to support profitability growth [1]. - The report anticipates that the recovery in the capital market will lead to better-than-expected improvements in the fundamentals of brokerages [1]. Industry Reforms - Supply-side reforms are accelerating, focusing on creating top-tier investment banks and enhancing the strength of the brokerage industry. This includes several ongoing merger cases [2]. - The current valuation of the brokerage sector is at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.44, indicating limited downside and potential for upward valuation adjustments [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in the brokerage sector, emphasizing the potential for exceeding expectations in fundamental improvements and the benefits from ongoing supply-side reforms. Specific stock picks include Huatai Securities and GF Securities, with additional focus on Northeast Securities, Guolian Minsheng, and Tianfeng Securities [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the sanitary napkin industry is in a product-driven era, with leading brands generally adopting a big product strategy [1]. Core Insights - The key to successful big products lies in differentiated positioning and continuous iteration. Differentiated positioning focuses on advanced skin feel, safety, and enhanced efficacy as critical competitive factors for future sanitary napkin brands. Continuous iteration is essential for extending the lifecycle of big products [2]. - The penetration rate of sanitary napkin products is nearing its peak, with limited growth potential in volume. According to Euromonitor, the CAGR for the Chinese sanitary napkin industry from 2024 to 2028 is projected to be 3.5%, driven entirely by price increases [1][2]. - Leading brands are adopting a big product strategy primarily due to intense industry competition, consumer demand for functional products, and the high-frequency consumption characteristics of sanitary napkins [1]. Summary by Sections - **Differentiated Positioning**: The differentiation in sanitary napkins is currently reflected in four dimensions: skin feel, shape, safety, and efficacy. Advanced skin feel, safety, and enhanced efficacy are identified as key selling points for future competition among brands [2]. - **Continuous Iteration**: Product iteration is crucial for the longevity of big products. Iteration typically involves upgrading existing innovations and expanding into new innovation dimensions. For instance, the "Free Point Probiotics" series represents an upgrade in efficacy, while "Sofy Super Sleep" expands its innovation to include antibacterial properties [2]. - **Revenue Potential**: It is estimated that the largest single product series from leading sanitary napkin brands accounts for at least 30% of their revenue, potentially reaching up to 4 billion yuan [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) with a target price of 319.00, unchanged from the previous rating [2][12]. Core Views - Short-term adjustments have limited impact, and long-term growth remains assured, driven by the dual engines of energy drinks and hydration products [3][12]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 16.23 billion in 2024, 21.12 billion in 2025, and 26.57 billion in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 44.1%, 30.1%, and 25.8% respectively [5][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 3.28 billion in 2024, 4.43 billion in 2025, and 5.68 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.8%, 35.1%, and 28.2% respectively [5][13]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 8.51 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21.9%, and is expected to grow to 11.26 billion in 2023, representing a 32.4% increase [5][13]. - The net profit for 2022 was 1.44 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.8%, projected to increase to 2.04 billion in 2023, a growth of 41.6% [5][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was 2.77, expected to rise to 3.92 in 2023, and further to 6.31 in 2024 [5][13]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The energy drink market is anticipated to grow at a rate of 12.3% in 2024, with Dongpeng positioned to capture market share due to its high cost-performance ratio and enhanced channel capabilities [12]. - The hydration product "Bushi La" is expected to become a second growth engine, with a projected CAGR of 17% from 2021 to 2024, driven by increased consumer demand for electrolyte replenishment [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 24.00, unchanged from the previous forecast [2][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in revenue and profit due to the launch of new production lines for dietary fiber and allulose sugar, alongside strong market demand [3][10]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 11.51 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.6%, with a net profit of 2.49 billion, up 29.2% [13][10]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 is anticipated to show a substantial revenue increase of 55% year-on-year, with net profit growth of 28% [13][10]. Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 722 million in 2022, which is expected to grow to 1,151 million in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.6% [10][14]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to rise from 151 million in 2022 to 249 million in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 29.2% [10][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.47 in 2022 to 0.77 in 2024 [10][14]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned in a rapidly growing market for functional foods and beverages, with significant opportunities for expansion in both domestic and international markets [3][13]. - The launch of high-margin products like resistant dextrin is expected to enhance revenue structure and profitability [13][10]. - The company has demonstrated strong capabilities in market and customer development, with a focus on innovative products and trends [13].