Group 1: Macro Trends - In January 2026, global asset performance ranked as follows: commodities (9.06%) > global stocks (3.02%) > global bonds (0.94%) > RMB (0.46%) > 0% > USD (-1.35%) [2] - Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair suggests a significant policy shift, advocating for a restructuring of the $6.6 trillion asset portfolio, which may support the USD and tighten monetary policy [3] - The US Treasury bond market shows rising implied volatility skew, indicating investors are more concerned about inflation risks than recession risks, leading to higher premiums for hedging against rising rates [4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Performance - Global fund manager sentiment reached its highest level since July 2021, with the sentiment index rising from 7.3 to 8.1, while cash levels fell to a record low of 3.2% [5] - The 40-year Japanese government bond yield hit 4.0%, raising concerns about Japan's debt amid a proposed ¥25 trillion supplementary budget, which could worsen inflation and debt burdens [6] - The copper-to-oil ratio has been rising, indicating stronger industrial activity in China, which may positively impact the CSI 300 index [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risks - The divergence between the USD OIS and US cyclical sectors suggests a "Goldilocks" environment, but if OIS rates rise due to inflation data, cyclical stocks may face significant correction risks [5] - Gold prices surged over 35% from November 2025 to January 28, 2026, driven by geopolitical concerns and Fed rate cut expectations, despite a recent pullback due to Warsh's nomination [9] - The shadow variable of the counter-cyclical factor has surpassed 500 basis points, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards RMB appreciation amid resilient economic data [10]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Last week, gold prices briefly reached a record high of $5,586 but closed below $5,000, indicating a return to the long-term logarithmic ascending channel[4] - The single-day percentage drop in gold prices exceeded 11%, marking the largest drop in at least 50 years, surpassing the previous record of 9.4% on March 17, 1980[7] - The gold-silver price ratio fell to 46, the lowest level in 15 years, before rebounding above 50, suggesting potential weakness in gold's recovery[10] Group 2: Currency and Bond Market Trends - The risk reversal volatility for the euro against the dollar has surged to its highest level in 20 years, indicating increased demand for euro call options[12] - As of January 30, the net short position in dollar futures dropped to 13.9% of total open interest, down from 22% the previous week, reflecting reduced bearish sentiment ahead of the new Fed chair nomination[16] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is currently at 4.2%, which is one standard deviation above the 16-year average, indicating potential for valuation uplift[17] Group 3: Bond Market Developments - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds is currently 30 basis points, which is 60 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[20] - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap is at -15.9 basis points, while the Libor-OIS spread is at 121.5 basis points, indicating increased offshore dollar financing pressure[23] Group 4: Stock and Bond Performance - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is at 28.8, above the average level of the past 16 years, suggesting enhanced attractiveness of equities relative to fixed income[28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Angel Yeast (600298) [1][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant decline in molasses prices, which is expected to enhance profitability and operational stability for Angel Yeast. The company is positioned to benefit from cost advantages and growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets [1][10]. Summary by Sections Cost Elasticity: Significant Decline in Molasses Prices - The molasses price has dropped significantly, with current prices around 700 RMB per ton, a decrease of 33.8% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to an oversupply situation and a mismatch in market timing [2][19]. - The supply of molasses is expected to reach approximately 3.5 million tons in the 25/26 season, marking a 10-year high, driven by increased sugar production and stable demand for molasses [25][29]. - Angel Yeast's strategy includes using hydrolyzed sugar to replace molasses, which could contribute an estimated profit increase of 290-350 million RMB if molasses prices rise above 900 RMB [19][34]. Mid-term Growth Potential: Sufficient Growth Drivers - The company is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in domestic revenue, driven by the expansion of downstream products such as yeast protein and food ingredients [10][19]. - Internationally, Angel Yeast's overseas operations have shown robust growth, with expectations of maintaining over 15% CAGR during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, positioning the company to become the global leader in yeast production [10][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent stock price correction presents a good opportunity for investment, with revised earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 1.56 billion, 2.01 billion, and 2.32 billion RMB, respectively [10][19]. - The target price has been adjusted to 58 RMB, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25 for 2026, indicating strong long-term growth potential alongside improved profitability [10][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Angel Yeast (600298) [1][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant decline in molasses prices, which is expected to enhance profitability and operational stability for Angel Yeast. The company is positioned to benefit from cost advantages and growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets [1][10]. Summary by Sections Cost Elasticity: Significant Decline in Molasses Prices - The molasses price has dropped significantly, with current prices around 700 RMB per ton, a decrease of 33.8% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to an oversupply situation and a mismatch in market timing [2][19]. - The supply of molasses is expected to reach approximately 3.5 million tons in the 25/26 season, marking a 10-year high, driven by increased sugar production [25][29]. - Angel Yeast's strategy includes using hydrolyzed sugar to replace molasses, which could contribute an estimated profit increase of 300-350 million RMB if molasses prices rise above 900 RMB per ton [19][34]. Mid-term Growth Potential: Sufficient Growth Drivers - The company is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in domestic revenue over the next five years, driven by the expansion of its product lines, including yeast protein and food ingredients [10][19]. - Internationally, Angel Yeast's overseas operations have shown robust growth, with a projected CAGR of over 15% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, as the company seeks to solidify its position as a global leader in yeast production [10][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent stock price correction presents a good opportunity for investment, with revised earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 1.56 billion, 2.01 billion, and 2.32 billion RMB, respectively [10][19]. - The target price has been adjusted to 58 RMB, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25 for 2026, indicating strong long-term growth potential [10][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][20]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.859 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.22%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 273 million, a slight decline of 1.30%. The adjusted net profit reached 245 million, reflecting a growth of 16.49% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights that the company is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth due to a reduction in delivery subsidies in Q4, but anticipates a significant acceleration in new store openings in 2026, potentially leading to a "second Bobi" [2][8]. - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions and is expected to increase its store count significantly, with a focus on replicating successful store models [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 1.671 billion, with a growth rate of 2.5%. By 2025E, revenue is expected to reach 1.861 billion, growing by 11.4%, and further increasing to 2.084 billion in 2026E, with a growth rate of 12.0% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 277 million in 2024A, decreasing slightly to 273 million in 2025E, but expected to rebound to 324 million in 2026E, reflecting an 18.5% growth [4]. - The report projects an EPS of 1.14 for 2025, with estimates of 1.35 and 1.70 for 2026 and 2027 respectively, maintaining a target price of 35.6 yuan based on a P/E ratio of 26 times for 2026 [4][8].

Strategy - Public funds increased allocation to optical communication (+2.1 pct), semiconductor equipment (+0.3 pct), and packaging/testing, while reducing allocation to chip design (-1.3 pct), gaming (-0.8 pct), and advertising (-0.3 pct) in Q4 2025[13] - The market saw a slight decrease in the TMT sector's share of active equity funds from 39.8% in Q3 2025 to 38.0% in Q4 2025[13] Electronics - The PCB industry is expected to maintain high growth due to its heavy asset nature, with capacity release and product structure optimization driving non-linear performance improvements[33] - Data center construction is recovering, significantly increasing storage requirements for AI servers, leading to an optimistic outlook for storage prices in 2026[34] Computing - The emergence of end-side agents and data infrastructure is driving AI technology towards system-level collaboration and deeper industry integration[35] Media - The competition for AI traffic entry is intensifying, with major companies accelerating monetization in advertising and e-commerce, particularly during the Spring Festival[36] - OpenAI is preparing for an IPO in Q4 2026, with a projected valuation between $750 billion and $830 billion after the latest funding round[36] Robotics - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from concept validation to commercialization, with companies showing growth potential in key components and solutions[37] - Investment opportunities are emerging in incremental component markets, driven by the evolving aesthetic preferences of the robotics market[37] Automotive - Zeekr 9X received an L3 testing license, while Tesla has begun operating a driverless Robotaxi service in Austin[38] - Geely and Jianghuai Automotive are recommended for their low valuation and strong order performance, with Geely's expected PE ratio over 6 times indicating potential for rebound[38]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 ❖ 投资摘要： If you knew how hard it is to obtain perfection in any work, you would overlook shortcomings. —Lorenzo di Piero De' Medici 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2026 年 02 月 04 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：郭忠良 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《金银巨震，大类资产风波又起——总量"创" 辩第 121 期》 2026-02-03 《资产配置快评 2026 年第 5 期：美联储重回"观 望"模式——1 月美联储议息会议点评 2026 年 第 1 期》 2026-01-29 《资产配置快评 2026 年第 4 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2026-01-26 《资产配置快评 2026 年第 3 期：Riders on the Chart ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 巴比食品（605338）2025 年业绩快报点评 强推（维持） Q4 外卖补贴退坡，26 新店加速贡献 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 3 日收盘价 公司研究 速冻食品 2026 年 2 月 4 日 目标价：35.6 元 当前价：31.10 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 事项： ❖ 公司发布业绩快报，25 全年实现收入 18.59 亿，同比增长 11.22%；归母净利 润 2.73 亿，同比下降 1.30%，扣非净利润 2.45 亿，同比增长 16.49%。 ❖ 风险提示: 原材料价格大幅波动、市场竞争加剧、开店进度不及预期。 | | | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,671 | 1,861 | 2,084 | 2,515 | | 同比增速(%) | 2.5% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 20.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 277 | 273 | 324 | 407 | | 同比增速(%) ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 批发销量节奏调整，静待后续产品周期 目标价：113.8 元、116.3 港元 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 777,102 | 805,565 | 943,584 | 1,070,539 | | 同比增速(%) | 29.0% | 3.7% | 17.1% | 13.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 40,254 | 35,214 | 47,042 | 59,979 | | 同比增速(%) | 34.0% | -12.5% | 33.6% | 27.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 4.42 | 3.86 | 5.16 | 6.58 | | 市盈率(倍) | 20 | 23 | 17 | 13 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 3 日收盘价 公司研究 乘用车Ⅲ 2026 ...

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创证券人工智能研究中心】 公募增配光通信、半导体设备、封测，减配芯片设 计、游戏、广告——多行业联合人工智能 2 月报 策略月报 2026 年 02 月 04 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：耿琛 邮箱：gengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517100004 证券分析师：岳阳 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 邮箱：yueyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521120002 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 证券分析师：张程航 2026-01-26 《【华创策略】再通胀主线：五朵金花——策略周 聚焦》 2026-01-25 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 证券分析师：范益民 电话：021-20572562 邮箱：fanyimin@ ...