证 券 研 究 报 告 批发销量节奏调整，静待后续产品周期 目标价：113.8 元、116.3 港元 乘用车Ⅲ 2026 年 02 月 04 日 比亚迪（002594）2026 年 1 月销量点评 强推（维持） 当前价：87.37 元、90.00 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 证券分析师：夏凉 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 777,102 | 805,565 | 943,584 | 1,070,539 | | 同比增速(%) | 29.0% | 3.7% | 17.1% | 13.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 40,254 | 35,214 | 47,042 | 59,979 | | 同比增速(%) | 34.0% | -12.5% | 33.6% | 27 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 富临运业（002357）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 四川省道路客运龙头，积极布局三大战略转型方向：交旅 融合+低空经济+无人物流——华创交运|低空60系列（26） 公交 2026 年 02 月 03 日 当前价：12.81 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 公司研究 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 [ReportFinancialI ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 十点新变化——2026 年地方两会点评 事 项 截至 2 月 3 日，全国已有 29 省市召开人代会，公布 GDP 目标等全年重点工作 目标。2 月 4 日至 5 日，内蒙古、安徽将召开会议，至此 2026 年地方两会将全 部召开完毕。根据已有 29 省市情况，我们总结出以下十点变化。 主要观点 一、今年 GDP 目标：广东省时隔七年再次设置区间目标 广东、浙江等 6 省今年设置区间目标，其中广东数值为 4.5%-5.5%。从 2012 年 至今情况看，全国设置区间目标的年份只有 2016 年和 2019 年，当年分别有 4 个、2 个经济大省设置区间目标，两次的共同点在于经济第一大省广东均在列。 我们估算 29 省市 GDP 目标加权增速，今年为 5.0%，去年为 5.24%。 二、"十五五"GDP 目标：北京新疆重设年均目标，均为区间形式 北京、新疆的变化可能较为值得关注，两地重设 GDP 年均目标且均为区间形 式。"十四五"期间，北京、新疆未设置 GDP 年均目标，其中新疆的表述为"保 持在合理区间、各年度视情提出"，与全国"十四五"规划公布的要求完全一 致。今年， ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][11]. Core Insights - The company is the leading road passenger transport enterprise in Sichuan Province and the only special-grade passenger transport enterprise in the province, actively pursuing three strategic transformation directions: integration of transportation and tourism, low-altitude economy, and unmanned logistics [5][7][12]. Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 31,348.90 million shares and a total market value of 40.06 billion yuan [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company operates 6,179 vehicles and 846 passenger transport routes [5][17]. Financial Performance - Revenue has largely recovered to 2019 levels, with passenger transport income accounting for over 70% of total revenue [5][30]. - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 165 to 196 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 35% to 60% [5][37]. - Investment income has been a significant source of profit, contributing over 75% to total profit from 2020 to 2024 [5][42]. Strategic Transformation 1: Integration of Transportation and Tourism - The company benefits from the growing population in Chengdu, which is expected to contribute 67.87% of revenue in 2024 [5][58]. - The company has launched eight convenient bus routes with an occupancy rate exceeding 85% [5][58]. Strategic Transformation 2: Low-Altitude Economy - The integration of logistics and low-altitude operations is seen as a significant opportunity, with partnerships being explored to enhance operational efficiency [5][9]. - The company is collaborating with Fengyi, a leading logistics drone company, to develop a low-altitude logistics service system [5][9]. Strategic Transformation 3: Unmanned Logistics - The unmanned logistics sector is supported by favorable policies and presents new business opportunities [5][10]. - The company is actively exploring partnerships with leading unmanned vehicle companies to implement unmanned delivery services [5][10]. Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 180 million, 220 million, and 200 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.6, 0.7, and 0.6 yuan [11][37].

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The disclosure rate and pre - happy rate of listed companies' performance forecasts have both increased. The overall performance shows significant repair characteristics, and the market's consensus expectation for the whole year is more optimistic [1][2]. - As February enters the period of performance and economic data vacuum, the market's policy - gaming sentiment may gradually heat up. The stock market generally has good expected performance after the Spring Festival and before the Two Sessions. Attention can be paid to sectors with strong performance expectations and low premium rates [22]. - The convertible bond valuation still has support and may maintain high - level fluctuations. The new bond issuance continues to be light, but the pace of pre - plans has accelerated [3][4][60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Annual Report Forecast Period Ends, Driving Force Shifts to Performance Verification - **Disclosure and Pre - happy Rates**: As of January 30, 2026, the disclosure rate of performance forecasts of listed companies was 54.98%, a year - on - year increase of 1.83pct. The overall pre - happy rate was 36.87%, a year - on - year increase of 4.46pct [10]. - **Performance Repair**: The median year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent of the whole market in 2025 was 20.29%, a significant improvement compared with - 18.58% in 2024. The growth of industrial added value and the narrowing of PPI decline contributed to the positive growth of industrial enterprise profits [12]. - **Sector Performance**: The net profit growth rate of the GEM was relatively strong, with a growth rate center of 26.57% and a year - on - year increase of 74.62pct, driven by the low - base effect and the performance explosion in the computing power sector [12]. - **Industry Performance**: The pre - happy rates of the non - bank finance and non - ferrous metals industries led, and the net profit growth rate centers of these two industries were also among the top [18]. - **Convertible Bond Underlying Stocks**: The disclosure rate of convertible bond underlying stocks was 49.86%, and the pre - happy rate was 31.11%. The year - on - year growth rate center of the net profit in 2025 turned from loss to profit [20]. 3.2 Valuation Outlook - **Valuation Increase in January**: The convertible bond ETF share continued to grow, and major holders such as public funds increased their holdings. The convertible bond valuation rose to a new high, with the 100 - yuan parity fitted conversion premium rate reaching 37.11% as of January 30, 2026, a 3.05pct increase from the end of 2025 [23]. - **Future Valuation**: The probability of the spring rally continuing is not low. The adjustment of positions of financial products and insurance may be the key incremental factor in the first half of the year. The valuation may maintain high - level fluctuations [23]. 3.3 Key Focused Convertible Bonds - **January Performance**: From December 31, 2025, to January 30, 2026, the convertible bond portfolio rose 13.79%, outperforming the benchmark index by 7.95pct. Huayi and Huachen had obvious increases [36]. - **February Portfolio Adjustment**: The "Huachuang Convertible Bond" February key - focused portfolio was adjusted to include Xingqiu, Mingli, Yirui, Huachen, Huayi, Yifeng, Bengang, Peidi, Ziyin, Qingnong, Zhongyin, and Xingye [38]. 3.4 Market Review - **Market Performance in January**: The convertible bond market fluctuated strongly, with the small - cap style leading. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and other major indexes all rose, and the convertible bond valuation increased by 3.05pct month - on - month [45]. - **Market Trends**: The TMT and manufacturing sectors were popular, while the financial and real - estate sectors were relatively stable. Most industries in the convertible bond and underlying stock markets rose, and there was obvious rotation among sectors [49]. - **Fund Performance**: The daily trading volume of the equity and convertible bond markets increased, and the margin trading balance also increased. Most industries received net margin purchases [55][56]. 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - **New Bond Issuance in January**: Five new convertible bonds were issued, with a total scale of 57.80 billion yuan, and four new convertible bonds were listed, with a total scale of 41.97 billion yuan. The online new - bond subscription decreased [60]. - **Pending Issuance and New Plans**: The total pending issuance scale was about 129.911 billion yuan. Eleven new board plans were added in January, with a total scale of 137.99 billion yuan, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year increases [67]. - **Redemption and Downward Revision**: Sixteen convertible bonds announced redemption, and five convertible bonds announced proposals for downward revision [75]. - **Holder Changes**: The total scale of convertible bonds held by various entities in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges decreased. The scale of convertible bonds held by public funds increased, while that of enterprise annuities and securities companies decreased [82][85][89].

量化看市场系列之四：使用"OpenClaw"搭建属 于自己的私域 AI 助理 摘要 OpenClaw（曾用名 ClawdBot、Moltbot）是一款由程序员 Peter Steinberger 开 发的开源 AI 智能体项目，其图标为龙虾形象，该项目曾用名 Clawdbot，因商 标争议于 2026 年 1 月 27 日更名为 Moltbot，其定位为具备长期记忆与软件操 作能力的个人 AI 代理。它如同数字管家，可帮助用户完成处理邮件、编写代 码、发布社交媒体、自动购物等一系列任务。截至本研报发布前，其最新更名 为 OpenClaw。 金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【点评报告】 该项目于 2026 年 1 月发布，发布后迅速在 GitHub 上获得关注，截至同年 1 月 26 日，星标数量已增至 20.7k。OpenClaw 对本地硬件环境友好，支持部署在 Mac、Windows、树莓派等设备上，大部分用户会选择使用 Mac mini 等设备运 行。 与常见的云端大模型不同，OpenClaw 完全运行于本地，拥有与用户等同的系 统权限。用户可通过聊天软件发送自然语言指令，OpenClaw 将在后台调用 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" for the insurance sector, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [4][24]. Core Insights - The insurance industry achieved a total premium income of 61,194 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4%. The growth rate has slightly decreased compared to the previous month [7][6]. - Life insurance premiums reached 35,557 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4%. Health and accident insurance also showed growth, while the overall premium growth rate for life insurance has been gradually declining [7][6]. - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 41.3 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.1% [7][6]. - The report anticipates that the new business for life insurance will see rapid growth due to the dual benefits of high deposit flow and the expansion of bank insurance channels [7][6]. Company Summaries - **China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH)**: Expected EPS for 2025E is 5.68 yuan, with a PE ratio of 7.21 and a PB ratio of 1.41. The stock is rated as "Recommended" [3]. - **China Life Insurance (601628.SH)**: Expected EPS for 2025E is 6.34 yuan, with a PE ratio of 11.79 and a PB ratio of 2.18. The stock is rated as "Recommended" [3]. - **Ping An Insurance (601318.SH)**: Expected EPS for 2025E is 8.02 yuan, with a PE ratio of 7.48 and a PB ratio of 1.14. The stock is rated as "Strongly Recommended" [3]. - **China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328.HK)**: Expected EPS for 2025E is 2.07 yuan, with a PE ratio of 6.54 and a PB ratio of 1.09. The stock is rated as "Recommended" [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate sector, indicating a cautious outlook on new home sales and market dynamics [2] Core Insights - New home transactions have increased on a month-over-month basis, with Vanke's debt extension making progress [2] - The real estate index fell by 2.2%, ranking 18th among 31 sectors [9] - Significant year-over-year increases in new home and second-hand home transactions were noted, with new home sales up 591% and second-hand home sales up 1076% [23][28] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,227.95 billion and a circulating market value of 1,176.70 billion [2] Sales Performance - In the fifth week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 cities increased by 28% month-over-month, totaling 187 million square meters, with a year-over-year increase of 591% [23][27] - The average daily transaction area for second-hand homes in 11 cities was 30.8 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 1% month-over-month but a significant year-over-year increase of 1076% [28][31] Policy News - Local policies in Nanjing and Tianjin have been introduced to enhance housing fund utilization and increase loan limits, aiming to stimulate the real estate market [19][21] Company Dynamics - Vanke A has made progress in extending its debt, with 40% of its mid-term notes being repaid, while China Merchants Shekou anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2025 [22][19] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate market: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable income-generating assets like leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies that enhance transaction efficiency [35][36]

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 房地产行业周报（2026 年第 5 周） 推荐（维持） 新房成交环比上涨，万科债务展期获新进展 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 02 月 03 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,279.48 | 0.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,766.97 | 1.17 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 1.8% | 5.3% | 9.6% | | 相对表现 | 2.4% | -8.3% | -11.0% | -7% 4% 15% 26% 25/0 ...

银行理财产品： 据普益标准数据，2026 年 1 月 12 日-25 日双周内，银行理财市场新发产品共 计 1260 只，较上一统计周期（2025 年 12 月 29 日至 2026 年 1 月 11 日）的 1101 只环比增长 14.44%，基本恢复至更早一期（2025 年 12 月 15 日至 28 日） 1264 只的活跃水平。这表明在经历年末时点因素扰动后，理财公司的产品发 行节奏已回归常态，市场供给端保持稳定输出能力。当前银行理财市场延续了 固收产品为主导、理财公司为发行主力、中短期限及低门槛产品集中的结构特 征，结构分化态势更加显著。 基金产品： 2026 年 1 月 12 日至 1 月 25 日，公募基金新发市场延续年初以来的回暖态势， 市场呈现"量稳质升、结构剧变"的强势特征。市场总体新发数量、规模、平 均发行规模均较上期（2025 年 12 月 29 日至 2026 年 1 月 11 日）有明显增长， 本期共成立基金 65 只（前值 45 只），合计募集份额 637.48 亿元（前值 203.89 亿元），平均单只基金发行规模 9.81 亿元（前值 4.53 亿元）。权益类基金与 FOF ...