证 券 研 究 报 告 行业研究 基础化工 2025 年 04 月 28 日 能源周报（20250421-20250427） 推荐（维持） 准东煤制天然气管道一标段正式开工 风险提示：能源价格波动加大、海外地缘冲突加剧、下游需求不及预期 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 489 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 41,489.30 | 4.27 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 36,738.07 | 4.77 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -5.7% | -2.4% | 3.9% | | 相对表现 | -2.0% | 1. ...

比亚迪（002594）2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 业绩符合预期，关注智能化及海外进展 目标价：477.0 元、461.7 港元 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 777,102 | 1,093,172 | 1,314,867 | 1,527,268 | | 同比增速(%) | 29.0% | 40.7% | 20.3% | 16.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 40,254 | 57,985 | 70,375 | 81,390 | | 同比增速(%) | 34.0% | 44.0% | 21.4% | 15.7% | | 每股盈利(元) | 13.25 | 19.08 | 23.16 | 26.78 | | 市盈率(倍) | 28 | 19 | 16 | 14 | | 市净率(倍) | 6.1 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 电话：021-20572532 邮 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [7][22]. Core Views - The company continues to face operational pressure, but is focusing on new product growth to drive recovery. Despite a slight decline in revenue for 2024, there is a positive outlook for 2025 as the company aims to enhance product structure and optimize channel efficiency [7][8]. - The company reported total revenue of 1.87 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, and a net profit of 0.08 billion yuan, down 37.7% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue increased by 1.5% to 0.47 billion yuan, but net profit decreased by 38.0% [7][8]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 1,868 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: -1.7% - Net profit: 84 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: -37.7% - Gross margin: 23.7% [7][8]. - **2025 Financial Projections**: - Total revenue expected to reach 1,942 million yuan, with a growth rate of 4.0% - Net profit projected at 104 million yuan, with a growth rate of 23.7% - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at 1.07 yuan [7][11]. - **Long-term Projections**: - Revenue expected to grow to 2,137 million yuan in 2026 and 2,357 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 124 million yuan and 144 million yuan [7][11]. Product and Market Insights - The core product lines are under pressure, with specific categories showing varied performance: fried products down 11.9%, baked goods down 4.3%, steamed products up 5.4%, and dishes up 21.8% [7]. - The company is focusing on expanding its frozen prepared dishes and baked goods segments, with significant investment in production resources and R&D to meet customer demand [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 31 for 2024, decreasing to 25 in 2025, and further to 21 in 2026, indicating a positive trend in valuation as earnings improve [7][11]. - The target price is set at 28.9 yuan, corresponding to a P/E of 27 for 2025 [7][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 涪陵榨菜（002507）2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） Q1 压力延续，布局外延发展 目标价：15.8 元 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,387 | 2,478 | 2,601 | 2,763 | | 同比增速(%) | -2.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 799 | 843 | 869 | 924 | | 同比增速(%) | -3.3% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 6.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.80 | | 市盈率(倍) | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 25 日收盘价 调味品 2025 年 04 月 28 日 当前 ...

东南亚四国双反终裁税率公布，边际影响或 推荐（维持） 有限 根据 InfoLink Consulting 公众号，当地时间 2025 年 4 月 21 日，美国商务部 （Commerce）公布对来自东南亚四国（柬埔寨、马来西亚、泰国、越南）进口 的晶体光伏电池（无论是否组装成组件）的反倾销税（AD）和反补贴税（CVD） 调查的终裁税率。从后续安排来看，美国国际贸易委员会（US ITC）将于 2025 年 6 月裁定四国产品是否对美国本土产业造成损害，若裁定成立，双反税率将 正式生效。 四国双反终裁的综合税率普遍有所调高。从本次双反终裁的综合税率来看，除 了马来西亚韩华（Hanwha Q Cells）的税率较初裁时有小幅下调外，其他四国 内主要的电池组件厂商税率均有明显提升。其中柬埔寨部分企业税率超 3000%，主要系这些企业在反倾销调查时未及时提供商务部所需信息或拒配合 调查，适用惩罚性高税率。就双反税率来看，马来西亚或保留部分输美机会， 柬埔寨、泰国、越南等区域经济性或较差。 本次双反终裁税率公布，边际影响或有限。一方面，在 2024 年四季度美国双 反初裁税率公布后，各企业积极调整出口美国的方式，并进行了 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 宝立食品（603170）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 营收增长稳健，静待盈利弹性 目标价：18.2 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营业收入 26.51 亿元，同 比增长 11.91%；归母净利润 2.33 亿元，同比-22.52%；2025 年 Q1 实现营业收 入 6.69 亿元，同比增长 7.18%；归母净利润 0.58 亿元，同比-4.19%。 证券分析师：董广阳 电话：021-20572598 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,651 | 2,943 | 3,307 | 3,728 | | 同比增速(%) | 11.9% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 12.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][16]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.58 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, and a net profit of 227 million yuan, up 3.45% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed even stronger growth, with a revenue of 423 million yuan, up 27.21%, and a net profit of 73 million yuan, up 78.51% year-on-year [1][3]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 33.60 yuan, based on a projected 40 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: Total revenue is projected at 1.58 billion yuan with a net profit of 227 million yuan. The gross margin is 35.80%, and the net margin is 14.39% [3][7]. - **2025 Projections**: Expected revenue growth to 2.10 billion yuan, with net profit increasing to 343 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth rate of 51.5% [3][7]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for 2025 is 0.84 yuan, increasing to 1.20 yuan by 2027 [3][7]. Business Segment Insights - **Tool Products**: Revenue from tool products is expected to reach 1.19 billion yuan in 2024, driven by demand in AI servers and high-value PCB products [7]. - **Smart CNC Equipment**: Revenue from smart CNC equipment is projected to be 55 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.55% [7]. - **Functional Film Materials**: Revenue from functional film materials is expected to reach 155 million yuan in 2024, showing a remarkable growth of 72.84% [7]. Market Position - The company holds approximately 26.5% market share in the global PCB drill needle market, benefiting from the increasing demand for high-performance PCB products [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a bottoming out of its performance, with growth driven by AI and domestic innovation [2]. - The report highlights a short-term pressure on core business but anticipates a recovery in demand as market conditions improve [7]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements are expected to enhance profitability, while ongoing R&D investments are aimed at long-term competitiveness [7]. - The integration of AI technology is set to reshape the financial technology ecosystem, with significant growth potential in domestic innovation applications [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 65.81 billion, a decrease of 9.6% year-on-year, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [3][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 10.43 billion for 2024, down 26.8% year-on-year, with a rebound anticipated in 2025 [3][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.55 in 2024 to 0.85 by 2027 [3][7]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 47 in 2024 to 31 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation [3][7]. Business Segment Performance - Wealth technology services reported revenue of 1.43 billion, down 17.5% year-on-year [7]. - Asset management technology services generated 1.57 billion, a decline of 8.38% [7]. - Operations and institutional technology services saw revenue of 1.29 billion, down 10.24% [7]. - Innovative business revenue was 515 million, down 7.34% [7]. - Data services revenue reached 354 million, a decrease of 8.13% [7]. Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow to 71.2 billion in 2025, 76.3 billion in 2026, and 81.5 billion in 2027 [7]. - Net profit is projected to increase to 12.5 billion in 2025, 14.3 billion in 2026, and 16.0 billion in 2027 [7]. - The target price for the company is set at 33 yuan, based on a 50 times P/E ratio for 2025 [7].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 兴业证券（601377）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） ROE 回升，轻资本业务增长 目标价：6.79 元 事项： 点评： 单季度 ROE 同比环比均有提升。公司报告期内 ROE 为 3.7%，同比+0.3pct。 单季度 ROE 为 1.5%，环比+0.8pct，同比+0.8pct，杜邦拆分来看： 1）公司报告期末财务杠杆倍数（总资产剔除客户资金）为：3.85 倍，同比+0.17 倍，环比+0.2 倍。 2）公司报告期内资产周转率（总资产剔除客户资金，总营收剔除其他业务收 入后）为 4.4%，同比+0.1pct，单季度资产周转率为 1.4%，环比+0.2pct，同比 +0.7pct。 3）公司报告期内净利润率为 22.1%，同比-0.1pct，单季度净利润率为 26.7%， 环比+11.4pct，同比+1.6pct。 杠杆倍数同比提升。资产负债表看，剔除客户资金后公司总资产为 2224 亿元， 同比+149.5 亿元，净资产：578 亿元，同比+14.4 亿元。杠杆倍数为 3.85 倍， 同比+0.17 倍。 公司计息负债余额为 1364 亿元，环比+148.9 亿元，单 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a bottoming out of its performance, with growth driven by AI and domestic innovation [2]. - The report highlights a short-term pressure on core business but anticipates a recovery in demand as market conditions improve [7]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements are expected to enhance profitability, while ongoing R&D investments are aimed at maintaining long-term competitive advantages [7]. - The integration of AI technology is set to reshape the financial technology ecosystem, with significant growth potential in domestic innovation applications [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 65.81 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 10.43 billion yuan, down 26.8% year-on-year [3][7]. - Revenue is expected to recover in the following years, with estimates of 71.22 billion yuan in 2025, 76.27 billion yuan in 2026, and 81.51 billion yuan in 2027 [7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.55 yuan in 2024 to 0.85 yuan in 2027 [3][7]. Business Segment Performance - Wealth technology services reported revenue of 1.43 billion yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year [7]. - Asset management technology services generated 1.57 billion yuan, a decline of 8.38% year-on-year [7]. - Operations and institutional technology services saw revenue of 1.29 billion yuan, down 10.24% year-on-year [7]. - Innovative business revenue was 515 million yuan, decreasing by 7.34% year-on-year [7]. - Data services revenue reached 354 million yuan, down 8.13% year-on-year [7]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47 in 2024, decreasing to 31 by 2027 [3]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 5.6 in 2024 to 4.0 in 2027 [3]. - The target price is set at 33 yuan, based on a 50 times P/E for 2025 [7].