作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 时间 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 黄金周报（2024.11.4-2024.11.10） 核心观点 2024 年 11 月 11 日 特朗普赢得大选并大概率横扫"两院"，金价大幅调整 ⚫ 特朗普赢得大选并大概率横扫"两院"，金价大幅调整。上 周五（11 月 8 日），沪金主力期货价格较前周五（11 月 1 日） 下跌 2.26%至 615.48 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格下跌 1.97%至 2691.70 美元/盎司；黄金 T+D 现货价格下跌 2.31%至 612.87 元/克，伦敦金现货价格下跌 1.89%至 2684.04 美元/盎 司。具体来看，上周特朗普赢得美国大选后，大选不确定性及 避险情绪消退，加之由于市场预期特朗普大概率能够横扫"两 院"，其政策主张将推升通胀，导致对未来降息预期回落，美 元和美债利率因此大幅上涨，黄金显著承压回落。不过，上周 五美联储如期降息 25bp，且政策表态未显示出明显的鹰派倾 向,市场情绪随之企稳，黄金价格回升至 2700 美元/盎司左右。 整体上看，上周黄金价格先下后上，整体大幅调整。 本周（ ...

1 东方金诚宏观研究 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|--------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | 化债政策加力影响新增贷款少增，10 | 月金融数据显示稳增长、稳楼市力度加大 | | | ——2024 年 10 月金融数据点评 | | | 王青 李晓峰 冯琳 | 事件：2024 年 11 月 11 日，央行公布的数据显示，2024 年 10 月新增人民币贷款 5000 亿，同比少增 2384 亿；10 月新增社会融资规模为 13958 亿，同比少增 4483 亿。10 月末，广义货币(M2)同比增长 7.5%， 增速较上月末加快 0.7 个百分点；狭义货币(M1)同比下降 6.1%，降幅较上月末收窄 1.3 个百分点。 基本观点： 总体上看，10 月新增信贷、社融继续处于同比少增状态，但数据代表的经济金融含义明显不同：此前 新增信贷同比少增主要反映企业和居民融资需求不旺，以及金融"挤水分"影响，而 10 月的新增信贷同 比少增主要源于化债政策加力，城投平台置换或偿还存 ...

1 东方金诚宏观研究 食品和能源价格拖累 10 月 CPI 涨幅低位回落，一揽子增量政策带动 PPI 走势趋稳 ——2024年10月物价数据点评 研究发展部执行总监冯琳 事件：11 月 9 日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，2024 年 10 月 CPI 同比为 0.3%，上月为 0.4%；10 月 PPI 同比为-2.9%，上月为-2.8%。 基本观点： 10 月 CPI 环比下跌 0.3%，同比涨幅较上月放缓 0.1 个百分点，这主要受食品和能源价格走弱拖累。 不过，当月剔除食品、能源价格的核心 CPI 环比仍弱于季节性，同比涨幅反弹至 0.2%，继续处于 1.0%以 下的偏低区间。这意味着，2023 年初以来的物价上涨动能偏弱状况还在延续。在商品和服务供应比较稳定 的背景下，消费需求不足是现阶段物价水平明显偏低的主因。展望后续，主要受基数大幅走低带动，11 月 CPI 同比将有所回升，预计涨幅在 0.6%左右，低通胀现象还会延续。短期内 CPI 同比走势将在很大程度上 取决于本轮一揽子增量政策的力度和节奏，特别是促消费政策的加码力度；至于明年宏观经济能否彻底摆 脱低物价局面，将主要取决于房地产市场何时实现止 ...

东方金诚首席宏观分析师 王青 2024 年 10 月外汇储备、黄金储备数据解读 2024 年 10 月末，我国外汇储备规模为 32610.50 亿美元，环比上月末减少 553.17 亿美元；10 月末黄金储备报 7280 万盎司，与上个月持平，连续 6 个月保 持不变。 10 月末外储规模结束此前连续三个月较大幅度上升过程，环比下降 1.7%， 主要原因是当月美元指数上行与全球金融资产价格下跌共振，带动我国外储估值 下行。首先，受美国大选临近、"特朗普交易"发酵等因素带动，10 月美元指 数大幅上涨 3.1%，这会导致我国外储中的非美元资产以美元计价相应缩水。我 们估计，10 月美元升值会直接带动我国外汇储备规模估值下降约 400 亿美元左 右，是当月外储规模下降的主要原因。另外，10 月美债收益率大幅上行，美债 价格走低，加之全球股市普遍下跌，都会对我国外储估值有一定下拉作用。 近期我国出口保持强势，跨境资金流动整体稳定，这些都能为外储规模保持 基本稳定提供支持。我们也认为，尽管近期人民币对美元有所贬值，但 CFETS 等三大一篮子人民币汇率指数稳中有升，这意味着短期内汇率波动无需央行动用 外储干预汇市。 ...

Economic Policies - Trump's economic policies include significant tax cuts, increased tariffs, and reduced regulations, which are expected to face less resistance due to Republican control of both houses of Congress[2][4] - Proposed tax cuts aim to permanently reduce personal and estate taxes, benefiting the top 95%-99% income households and low-income earners, potentially increasing disposable income and stimulating consumption[2][4] - Corporate tax rates may be lowered from 21% to 20% or 15%, alongside accelerated capital expenditure depreciation, which could enhance cash flow for domestic companies and encourage investment[2][4] Inflation and Interest Rates - Trump's policies may elevate inflation risks, leading to prolonged high interest rates, which could increase downward pressure on the U.S. economy[4][6] - The combination of tax cuts and tariffs is projected to push inflation up, with estimates suggesting a 0.35 percentage point increase in CPI inflation from deporting 1.3 million immigrants[6][8] - The U.S. government debt is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating an increase of $7.75 trillion over the next decade due to Trump's fiscal policies[8][9] Trade and Employment - Proposed tariffs include a 10% baseline tariff on imported goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese products, which could generate an additional $524 billion in annual revenue but may reduce long-term GDP growth by 0.8% and eliminate approximately 684,000 jobs[5][6] - The trade policies may negatively impact employment growth and industrial competitiveness, as previous tariffs have shown detrimental effects[5][6] Currency and Global Impact - Trump's victory is expected to strengthen the U.S. dollar in the short term due to fiscal expansion and higher bond yields, but long-term prospects for the dollar may weaken due to rising debt levels and global de-dollarization trends[10][12] - The potential for increased tariffs on Chinese goods could lead to depreciation pressures on the Chinese yuan, impacting China's exports and economic growth, with estimates suggesting a 0.85% reduction in China's GDP by 2025 if tariffs are implemented[13][14]

1 东方金诚宏观研究 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|--------------------------------------| | | | ——美联储 11 月货币政策会议点评与展望 | | | | 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 | 事件：美东时间 11 月 7 日周四，美联储在货币政策委员会 FOMC 会后宣布，将联邦基金利率的目 标区间从 4.75%至 5.0%降至 4.5%至 4.75%，降幅 25 个基点，为 9 月上次会议决定降幅的一半。本次 声明大致沿用了 9 月 18 日公布的上次 FOMC 会议声明内容,但声明删除了关于"在抗通胀问题上获得 信心"的表述，或暗示对 12 月暂停降息持开放态度。会后，美联储主席鲍威尔称，对抗通胀的抗争 尚未结束，核心通胀仍然在某种程度上偏高，就业市场继续非常缓慢地降温，美联储会继续降息，但 若通胀降温停滞且经济强，可以更慢降息。短期内美国大选对货币政策没有影响，未来财政政策影响 会考虑在内，美国赤字和财政政策是经济阻力。 对此，东方金诚解读如下： 11 月会议美联储继续降息 25bp，主因近期数据反弹并未改变近半年来 ...

昌东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司 东方金诚宏观研究 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------| | | | | 短期扰动因素消退、上年基数偏低等带动 10 月出口高增，高基数拖累进口增速转负 | -2024 年 10 月贸易数据解读 | | | 研究发展部执行总监 冯琳 | 根据海关部署公布的数据,以美元计价,2024年10月出口额同比增长 12.7%,9月同比增长 2.4%; 10月进口额同比下降 2.3%,9月同比增长 0.3%。 一、10月出口增速超预期,主要源于短期扰动因素消退,去年10月出口基数偏低,以及外贸新动 能保持强劲增长和当前外需仍有一定制性。 以人民币计价，10月出口、进口额同比增速分别为 11.2%和-3.7%，与同期以美元计价的增速差主 要源于过去一年中人民币对美元有所升值。这也是以美元计价的进、出口增速连续第四个月高于以人民 币计价的进、出口增速的原因,体现7月以来人民币汇价的回升。 1、 ...

1 东方金诚宏观研究 | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------| | | 一揽子增量政策带动宏观经济景气度显著回升 | | | ———— 2024 年 10 月 PMI 数据点评 | | | | | | 王青 闫骏 冯琳 | 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2024 年 10 月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.1%， 比上月上升 0.3 个百分点；10 月，非制造业商务活动指数为 50.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，其中， 建筑业商务活动指数为 50.4%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点，服务业 PMI 指数为 50.1%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点；10 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.8%，比上月上升 0.4 个百分点。 10 月 PMI 数据要点解读如下： 本次一揽子增量政策规模较大，正在对市场信心和经济运行起到明显的提振作用。由此，尽管国 庆长假停工会带来一定的季节性下行效应，但在强有力的稳增长政策带动下，10 月官方制造业 PMI 指 数仍时隔 5 个月重返扩张区间。其中，预期改善带动生产提 ...

整体的这样行业的这么一个平均水平的实现了逆势的一个增长但是我们确实也看到了就是说因为宇和文化的这些年我们其实出于这种风控的考虑我们确实也放弃了很多一些地产的大客户的生意包括相应的这样的一些合同订单所以我们看到整个地产的大B端的这个收入的话呢那么也从当年的这个高点140多亿的收入那么今天的话前三季度我们已经降到了十个亿出头的这个规模了那么所以说这一块的话呢应该说 那么去年前三季度我们来对地产大逼端的生意的话这个收入大概在接近30亿左右的这个规模那么现在来看的话呢整个地产大逼的话呢那么确实前三季度的这种快速下降那么确实对我们的直销端的收入还是造成一个比较大的一个压力的那么同时的话呢去年开始 与红出别对于整个应收账团的管控的一些考虑我们希望提高我们的营运资金的这种周转的速度效率所以说其实我们也逐渐的摒弃了一些资金占用时间比较长的施工的一些业务尤其是我们要求北上广深以外的这种省级的一级化公司 那么再去承接新的项目的话只能发展合伙人去落地更多的是做材料销售而不是去做施工做包容包料那么所以我们看到在这种去施工化的这样一个业务结构转型的过程中的话确实我们的施工收入也是在快速下降的那么前三季度我们整个的施工收入也是从去年前三 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of Dongtai (东财), a leading player in the financial services industry, particularly in retail brokerage and fund sales in China [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Core Competitiveness - Dongtai's core economic capabilities have strengthened compared to three years ago, despite its market capitalization returning to the same level as three years prior. This is attributed to advancements in AI technology and increased user engagement [1]. - The company has the highest investment in AI technology among A-share companies, particularly in smart investment research and smart investment management [1]. User Growth and Market Share - Dongtai's monthly active users reached a historical high in June and July, indicating a robust increase in user engagement [2]. - The company has become the largest retail brokerage in China, with its market share in stock trading continuously reaching new highs [2][3]. Financial Performance - Despite a challenging market environment, Dongtai's performance in Q3 was resilient, achieving a profit of approximately 20 billion yuan, which is a slight increase year-on-year [4][5]. - The overall market trading volume in Q3 was notably low, around 6,700 billion yuan, marking one of the lowest quarters in recent history [4][5]. - Dongtai's Q4 profit is expected to increase by about 50% compared to Q3, potentially reaching 30 billion yuan, driven by improved market conditions [5][6]. Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape is evolving, with expectations of a phased fee reduction impacting the industry. However, the anticipated effects on Dongtai are considered limited, with only a minor impact on its revenue [7][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the regulatory changes, as they may lead to a more favorable operating environment [7]. Valuation and Market Outlook - Current market valuations are deemed reasonable, with projections for next year suggesting a profit of around 115 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 30 times [8][9]. - Dongtai is viewed as a strong investment opportunity, with potential for significant profit growth if market trading volumes remain high [9][10]. Business Model and Strategy - Dongtai has diversified its business model, including brokerage services, fund sales, and AI technology development, positioning itself as a comprehensive financial services platform [18][19]. - The company has a strong focus on retail investors and is well-positioned to capture the growing demand for equity investments among Chinese consumers [19][20]. Future Growth Potential - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the increasing trend of retail investors entering the market, with projections indicating a potential increase in daily trading volumes to 1.2 trillion yuan or more [12][38]. - Dongtai's unique position as a leading internet-based financial services provider allows it to leverage its extensive user base and technological advancements for future growth [32][33]. Additional Important Insights - Dongtai's investment in AI and technology is seen as a long-term strategy to enhance its service offerings and maintain competitive advantages in the rapidly evolving financial landscape [31][32]. - The company has shown resilience in maintaining its market share and profitability despite external market pressures, indicating strong operational capabilities [34][35]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting Dongtai's competitive positioning, financial performance, and future growth potential in the financial services industry.