Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of low-carbon hydrogen applications in industrial sectors, supported by multiple government departments, which is expected to enhance the scale of hydrogen applications in industries [7][14]. - The establishment of a comprehensive hydrogen energy industrial chain is emphasized, focusing on hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and utilization, particularly in petrochemical, steel, transportation, energy storage, and power generation sectors [7]. - The report suggests that the industrial attributes of hydrogen energy have been reinforced, with significant policy backing aimed at promoting hydrogen metallurgy and green methanol production [7][14]. Summary by Sections Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, National Development and Reform Commission, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a plan to accelerate the implementation of clean low-carbon hydrogen applications in industrial fields, aiming to enhance hydrogen metallurgy and green ammonia production [7]. - The report notes that the government will coordinate resources such as funding, projects, policies, and standards to support green hydrogen projects [7]. Market Opportunities - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies such as Huaguang Huaneng, Huadian Technology, Lanshi Heavy Industry, Sunshine Power, and Longi Green Energy, while suggesting to pay attention to companies like Shuangliang Energy, Petrochemical Machinery, Xiongtao Co., Shenghui Technology, Houpu Co., and Kaishan Co. [7]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a breakthrough in the large-scale industrial application of low-carbon hydrogen, accelerating the industrialization process of hydrogen energy [7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, emphasizing a clear direction towards stabilization and economic recovery policies [3]. Core Insights - New housing transaction area has shown a month-on-month increase, but year-on-year figures have turned negative, indicating diminishing policy effects after a previous market recovery [3][15]. - The second-hand housing transaction area has seen a narrowing decline month-on-month, with year-on-year growth still robust in first-tier cities [3][15]. - New housing inventory has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a reduction in the de-stocking cycle [3][15]. Summary by Sections 1. New Housing Market Tracking - In 40 key cities, new housing transaction volume reached 42,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 11.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. The transaction area was 457.8 million square meters, up 12.2% month-on-month but down 1.7% year-on-year [3][16]. - Transaction volumes in first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities showed month-on-month growth rates of 19.0%, 20.7%, and -16.0%, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.9%, -3.7%, and -12.4% [3][16]. 2. Second-Hand Housing Market Tracking - The transaction area for second-hand housing in 18 cities was 227.7 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.3% but a year-on-year increase of 34.6% [3][15]. - First, second, and third/fourth-tier cities experienced month-on-month growth rates of -2.4%, 7.7%, and -18.6%, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.4%, 24.1%, and 8.3% [3][15]. 3. Inventory Tracking - The new housing inventory in 12 cities was 9,053 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.3% [3][20]. - The de-stocking cycle for new housing inventory was 12.3 months, down 0.9 months month-on-month and down 3.2 months year-on-year [3][20]. 4. Land Market Tracking - The total land area transacted in 100 cities was 58.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 12.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.3% [3][11]. - The total land transaction price was 1535.5 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 37.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% [3][11]. 5. Policy Overview - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized four key areas for 2025: stabilizing the real estate market, developing new models, promoting urban renewal, and ensuring quality housing [3][15]. - Local policies include measures in cities like Shenzhen and Taiyuan to enhance housing accessibility and streamline sales processes [3][15]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: companies expected to benefit from policy easing, those with strong urban presence, and local state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and urban renewal [3][15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating for the industry, expecting the industry index to perform in line with the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline of -0.2% last week, ranking 11th among the primary industries in the Shenwan classification. The dairy and beer sub-sectors performed better, with increases of +1.7% and +1.2%, respectively [19][33]. - The launch of the "Gift" feature on WeChat Mini Store is anticipated to drive transformation in the gifting industry, benefiting certain food and beverage companies. This feature simplifies the gifting process and is expected to gain traction during the upcoming festive season [19]. - Qingdao Beer has completed its board restructuring, which, combined with recovering dining demand and declining barley prices, is expected to enhance profit elasticity in 2025 [19]. Industry Data Tracking - As of December 27, the valuation of the liquor sector (PE-TTM) stands at 20.0X, while the overall food and beverage sector is valued at 21.5X [38]. - In November 2024, the production of liquor was 375,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of -15.2%, while beer production was 1,695,000 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of +5.7% [45]. - The price of fresh milk in China was reported at 3.11 RMB/kg as of December 20, unchanged from the previous month but down -15.3% year-on-year [50]. - The national average price for live pigs was 7.91 RMB/jin as of December 27, with a week-on-week increase of +1.2% and a year-on-year increase of +6.6% [54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China's import and export activities have shown growth, with November 2024 figures indicating a total import and export value of 37,506 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [58]. - The global idle capacity of container ships remains low, with only 58 vessels totaling 200,002 TEU, representing 0.6% of the global fleet capacity [11][59]. - Japan's relaxation of visa policies for Chinese tourists and the opening of the fourth runway at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport are expected to enhance travel and economic exchanges between China and Japan [60][61]. - The establishment of a low-altitude economic development department by the National Development and Reform Commission is anticipated to stimulate growth in the express delivery sector [11][69]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hotspot Events - November 2024 saw a continuation of growth in China's economy, with significant increases in coal and oil imports, and a total import of 54.98 million tons of coal, marking a 26.4% year-on-year increase [58]. - The report notes that the idle capacity of the global container fleet is at a historical low, benefiting from geopolitical tensions that have affected shipping routes [59]. - Japan's new visa policies for Chinese tourists are expected to boost travel, with a significant increase in flight searches to Japan during the upcoming holiday season [60][61]. 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air cargo prices have shown a downward trend in mid-December, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 5,327 points, a year-on-year increase of 36.8% but a month-on-month decrease of 6.9% [66]. - The report indicates that domestic cargo flights in November 2024 increased by 10.23% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 38.63% [73]. - The shipping industry has seen an increase in the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), which reported 2,460.34 points, a week-on-week increase of 2.94% and a year-on-year increase of 96.04% [76]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [11]. - It also highlights investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [11]. - The report encourages investments in the express delivery sector, particularly in companies like Jitu Express and Yunda Express, as well as in the airline industry, recommending China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines [11].

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The report highlights the slight increase in international oil prices and the rise in prices of acrylic acid and refrigerants [7] - It suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant and vitamin sectors, undervalued industry leaders, and companies in the light hydrocracking sub-sector due to overall macroeconomic improvement [7][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, recommending large energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies [7][35] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of December 23-29, 2024, among 101 tracked chemical products, 23 saw price increases, 44 saw decreases, and 34 remained stable [26] - The average price of R22 refrigerant increased by 1.54% week-on-week, with a year-to-date increase of 69.23% [27] - The report notes that the average price of WTI crude oil was $69.62 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.23% [26] Profit Forecast - The report forecasts that the net profit attributable to the parent company for the years 2024-2026 will be 4.87 billion, 6.11 billion, and 7.23 billion yuan respectively [38] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period is projected to be 3.77, 4.73, and 5.59 yuan respectively [38] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-performing sectors such as refrigerants and vitamins, as well as companies with low valuations in the chemical industry [35] - It suggests a long-term investment strategy in the oil and gas extraction sector, which is expected to maintain high profitability [35] - Specific companies recommended include China Petroleum, China Oil, and Wanhu Chemical [35]

Market Overview - The A-share index rebounded this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.36%[25] - The bond market saw a slight decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.69%[63] - The commodity futures index increased by 0.97%, driven by gains in grain and energy sectors[59] Economic Indicators - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises was CNY 66,674.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%[17] - The industrial production value increased by 5.4% year-on-year in November, indicating a slight recovery in production activity[17] - The GDP for 2023 was revised to CNY 129.4 trillion, reflecting a growth rate of 2.7%[21] Policy Outlook - The "policy combination" is expected to continue to support economic growth into early 2025, with a focus on expanding domestic demand[26] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of consumption and effective investment to stimulate economic recovery[26] - The government plans to implement a special action to boost consumption in 2025[26] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended asset allocation order remains: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[5] - The stock market is favored due to anticipated policy support, while bonds are expected to be under pressure from stock market performance[27]

Economic Overview - As of November, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached 66,674.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%, with the decline slightly widening by 0.4 percentage points compared to October[6] - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises fell by 7.3% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 2.7 percentage points compared to October[6] Revenue and Cost Analysis - From January to November 2024, industrial enterprises' operating income grew by 1.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate down by 0.1 percentage points from January to October[6] - The operating costs of industrial enterprises increased by 2.3% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as in the previous period, indicating continued pressure on profitability due to costs outpacing revenue growth[6] Profitability Insights - The operating income profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from October[14] - The manufacturing sector's contribution to industrial enterprise profits continued to weaken, with a year-on-year profit decline of 4.6% from January to November, extending the decline by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[5] Sector Performance - The mining sector's profit fell by 13.2% year-on-year, contributing negatively to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises by 2.3 percentage points[4] - High-tech manufacturing's positive contribution to profit growth fell to 0.3 percentage points, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, while traditional equipment manufacturing continued to negatively impact profit growth[5] Future Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized "expanding domestic demand" as a key task for economic development in the coming year, with a focus on boosting consumption and effective investment[21] - The combination of policy effects is expected to lead to a moderate recovery in industrial enterprise profitability in 2024[21]

Core Insights - The report anticipates a strong opening market for A-shares, driven by continuous inflow of investment funds and a favorable macro liquidity environment in early 2025 [5][36] - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit significantly from the anticipated "opening red" market trend, with historical data supporting this outlook [5][36] - The low-altitude economy sector is highlighted as a promising investment area following the establishment of a dedicated department by the National Development and Reform Commission [5][36] Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a trend of active trading, with the securities sector likely to continue benefiting from this momentum [5][25] - The report notes a decrease in the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in November, but the decline is less severe compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization [5][14] - The report emphasizes that the first quarter of 2025 may see a recovery in domestic inventory levels, supported by fiscal measures [5][14] Industry Analysis - The report categorizes industries based on their performance expectations for 2025, identifying sectors such as automotive, machinery, computing, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals as having sustained growth potential [21][42] - The real estate sector is expected to show improved performance in 2025 due to a low base effect, although absolute profit levels may remain low [42] - The report identifies industries with weak performance elasticity, particularly in value-oriented sectors like banking and oil and gas, which are expected to lag in growth [43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on small-cap growth stocks that have performance expectation potential, as they are likely to be the main focus of the market during this period [5][36] - The low-altitude economy is recommended for investment, particularly in areas such as raw materials, core components, drones, and aviation management [5][36] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of the non-bank financial sector, which is expected to see strong catalysts in the upcoming market environment [5][25]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the transportation industry, particularly in the chemical shipping sector, indicating potential growth opportunities due to increasing demand from the petrochemical industry [4][8]. Core Insights - The chemical shipping capacity approved in 2023 and 2024 has decreased compared to 2022, with 33,500 dwt and 59,800 dwt approved respectively, down from 82,200 dwt in 2022 [4]. - The transportation of hazardous chemicals is primarily directed towards the petrochemical industry, with large refining enterprises being the main downstream customers [8]. - The report highlights that the chemical industry supply chain is crucial for maintaining the flow of the petrochemical sector, with significant waterway transportation demand generated from coastal refining bases [8]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the chemical industry chain's prosperity due to policy support aimed at boosting domestic demand [10]. Summary by Sections Chemical Shipping Capacity - The approved chemical shipping capacity has seen a decline, with significant reductions in new capacity compared to previous years [4]. - The average age of chemical ships has been analyzed, indicating a trend towards an aging fleet [3]. Petrochemical Industry Demand - The report emphasizes the importance of the petrochemical industry as a major driver for hazardous chemical transportation, detailing the supply chain from paraxylene (PX) to polyester products [8][10]. - The concentration of transportation categories is high, with the top ten hazardous chemicals accounting for 83.4% of the total transportation volume [10]. Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The report notes that the current price and inventory indicators in the chemical downstream industry are low, but anticipates a rebound in the industry due to favorable fiscal and monetary policies [10]. - The report provides insights into the growth of cargo throughput at major ports, with a year-on-year increase in both total and foreign trade cargo throughput [29]. Dividend and Investment Potential - The report highlights the attractive dividend yields of transportation companies, particularly in the highway and port sectors, as stable cash flows support dividend payments [35]. - The report indicates that the long-term decline in interest rates enhances the investment appeal of public transportation companies due to their monopolistic characteristics and stable cash flows [35].

稳增长政策有望持续发力，我们维持此前的大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗> 债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 ◼ 经济数据：国家统计局公布数据显示，11 月份，全国规模以上工业增加值 同比增长 5.4%，社会消费品零售总额增长 3.0%。1-11 月份，全国固定资 产投资同比增长 3.3%。（万得） ◼ 要闻：中央农村工作会议在京召开，国家主席习近平指出，做好 2025 年 "三农"工作，要进一步深化农村改革，全面推进乡村振兴；要严守耕地红 线，高质量推进高标准农田建设，确保粮食和重要农产品稳产保供；要积 极发展乡村富民产业，提高农业综合效益，壮大县域经济，拓宽农民增收 渠道，持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，坚决守住不发生规模性返贫致贫底线； 要扎实推进乡村建设，繁荣乡村文化，推进移风易俗，建设宜居宜业和美 乡村。（万得） ◼ 稳增长政策有望持续发力，我们维持此前的大类资产配置顺序：股票>大 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：陈琦 qi.chen@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110003 大类资产表现 货币类：货币基金收益率涨跌不一. 目 录 | ...