Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][28][33] Core Views - The company's revenue showed relative resilience with a slight decline of 1.8% year-on-year, reaching 6.27 billion yuan, while net profit decreased significantly by 33.5% to 0.95 billion yuan, primarily due to increased market investment and reduced investment income [1][9] - The retail foundation remains solid, with steady market share growth and orderly overseas expansion, particularly in pipeline sales which increased by 2.3% year-on-year [2][15] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 99%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns despite profit pressures [3][28] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 6.27 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.95 billion yuan and an EPS of 0.61 yuan per share [1][9] - The gross margin for 2024 was 41.7%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant increase in sales expenses by 14% due to heightened marketing efforts [3][20] - Operating cash flow was 1.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year, but the cash collection ratio remained healthy [3][20] Product Performance - The company reported pipeline sales of 300,000 tons, with revenue contributions from PPR, PE, and PVC segments showing declines of 1.7%, 6.9%, and 8.1% respectively [2][15] - Other product lines achieved a revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [2][15] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting EPS of 0.66, 0.73, and 0.80 yuan per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.7, 16.8, and 15.3 [3][28] - The focus remains on high-quality development and enhancing market share in the retail sector, alongside a commitment to generous dividends [3][28]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月25日 高技术制造业宏观周报 国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数走平 国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数走平。截至 2025 年 4 月 19 日当周，国信 周频高技术制造业扩散指数 A 录得 0；国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数 B 为 51.6，较上期持平。从分项看，6-氨基青霉烷酸、动态随机存储器 价格上升，医药、半导体景气度上升；丙烯腈、六氟磷酸锂价格下降， 航空航天、新能源行业景气度下降；中关村电子产品价格指数不变，计 算机行业景气度不变。 高技术产业跟踪方面： 高技术制造业高频数据跟踪上，6-氨基青霉烷酸价格 310 元/千克，较 上周上升；丙烯腈价格 8700 元/吨，较上周下降 450 元/吨；动态随机 存储器（DRAM）价格 0.8720 美元，较上周上升 0.009 美元；晶圆（Wafer） 价格最新一期报 2.77 美元/片，较上周下降 0.01 美元/片；六氟磷酸锂 价格 5.75 万元/吨，较上周下降 0.25 万元/吨；中关村电子产品价格指 数:液晶显示器最新一期报 91.04，与上周持平。 高技术制造业政策动向上，4 月 24 日，《市场准入负面清单（2025 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][9]. Core Views - The company's overall performance in Q1 2025 faced pressure, with revenue of 664 million yuan, down 17.9% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 444 million yuan, down 15.87% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to the overall pressure on the medical beauty terminal market, but future overseas acquisitions are expected to open new growth opportunities [1][5]. - The company announced plans to acquire 59.5% of Korean REGEN Biotech to strengthen its regenerative medical product layout and leverage the acquisition to expand international market sales [1][5]. - The gross profit margin slightly decreased to 93.85%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by changes in product structure. R&D investment intensity has increased, with R&D expense ratio at 8.82%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [1][7]. Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 21.23 billion yuan, 24.3 billion yuan, and 28.03 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24.6, 21.5, and 18.6 [2][9]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 12.33% in 2025, 13.24% in 2026, and 13.74% in 2027, with net profit growth rates of 8.44%, 14.48%, and 15.34% for the same years [3][11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 7.03 yuan, with a net profit margin of 70.74% [3][11].

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月25日 风险提示：海外需求不及预期；原材料价格与海运费上涨；海内外竞争加剧。 投资建议：下调盈利预测，维持"优于大市"评级。 跨境电商维持景气、新品放量，代工订单充足；海外仓需求旺盛。考虑到关 税扰动、新业务投入期与海外仓库容利用率正在爬坡，下调盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润 3.6/4.5/5.4 亿元（前值 4.9/5.7/-亿），同比 +7%/24%/19%，当前股价对应 PE=14/11/9 倍。维持"优于大市"评级。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3,902 | 5,670 | 6,860 | 7,962 | 9,025 | | (+/-%) | 21.6% | 45.3% | 21.0% | 16.1% | 13.3% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 634 | 336 | 360 | 448 | 535 | | (+/-%) | 189.7% | -47.0% | 7 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月25日 巨化股份（600160.SH） 优于大市 2024 年业绩快速增长，制冷剂价格持续提升 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 基础化工·化学制品 | 证券分析师：杨林 | 证券分析师：张歆钰 | | --- | --- | | 010-88005379 | 021-60375408 | | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | zhangxinyu4@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520120002 | S0980524080004 | | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) | | 合理估值 | | | 收盘价 | 24.74 元 | | 总市值/流通市值 | 66792/66792 百万元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 26.72/14.25 元 | | 近 3 个月日均成交额 | 558.94 百万元 | 市场走势 相关研究报告 《巨化股份（600160.SH）-制冷剂价格持续提升，一季度业绩大 幅增长》 ——2025-04-08 《巨化股份（600160.SH）-增资控股甘肃巨化新材料，夯实国内 氟化工龙头地位》 — ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月24日 海油发展（600968.SH） 优于大市 三大主业稳步增长，第一季度扣非归母净利润同比增长 25.8% 第一季度扣非归母净利润 5.5 亿元，同比增长 25.8%，为第一季度历史新高。 2025 年第一季度公司实现营收 100.7 亿元（同比+9.4%），利润总额 8.2 亿 元（同比+16.7%），归母净利润 5.9 亿元（同比+18.5%），扣非归母净利润 5.5 亿元（同比+25.8%），毛利率为 12.9%（同比+1.0pcts），三费率为 4.4% （同比持平），净利率为 6.1%（同比+0.3pcts），经营活动净现金流-1.8 亿元（同比+82.4%）。 受益于海上油田增储上产，公司三大主业收入稳步提升。分板块来看，公司 能源技术服务产业受益于油田增储上产，渤海油田一季度油气总产量首次突 破 1000 万吨，创历史最好水平，公司井下工具业务、人工举升服务、油田 化学服务、装备设计制造及运维服务工作量稳步提升；能源物流服务产业中 的外输协调、智能基地、智能仓储和供应链一体化服务能力不断增强；低碳 环保与数字化产业重点围绕绿色低碳、数字化、新材料等战略性新兴 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has shown a cautious outlook on its study abroad business and future revenue projections, focusing on improving operational efficiency [1][3] - Non-selective business revenue increased by 21.2%, slightly exceeding management guidance, while total revenue for FY2025Q3 was $1.183 billion, down 2.0% year-on-year [1][8] - The company plans to maintain a 20-25% capacity expansion for FY2025, with a focus on improving outlet utilization [2][13] Revenue and Profitability - For FY2025Q3, the company reported a net profit of $113 million, adjusted down by 14.3% due to increased tax rates [1][8] - The deferred revenue at the end of February 2025 was $1.75 billion, reflecting a 15.0% year-on-year increase, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [1][8] - The gross margin improved to 55.1%, up 8.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of low-margin e-commerce business [2][19] Business Segments Performance - K9 education new business grew by 35%, while high school training showed strong demand with a 19% increase [2][12] - The study abroad training and consulting segments grew by 7% and 21%, respectively, but are facing downward pressure due to declining consumer spending and international relations [2][12] - E-commerce and cultural tourism revenues dropped by 49% due to the divestment of "With Huixing" [2][12] Future Outlook - For FY2025Q4, the company expects non-selective revenue to grow by 10-13%, with continued pressure on study abroad demand and a high base effect in K12 education [3][21] - The company has initiated a share buyback program, having repurchased $696 million worth of shares, and plans to adopt more diversified shareholder return methods [3][21] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered to $470 million, $570 million, and $690 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 3%, 14%, and 22% [3][22]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月25日 巨化股份（600160.SH） 优于大市 2024 年业绩快速增长，制冷剂价格持续提升 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 基础化工·化学制品 | 证券分析师：杨林 | 证券分析师：张歆钰 | | --- | --- | | 010-88005379 | 021-60375408 | | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | zhangxinyu4@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520120002 | S0980524080004 | | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) | | 合理估值 | | | 收盘价 | 24.74 元 | | 总市值/流通市值 | 66792/66792 百万元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 26.72/14.25 元 | | 近 3 个月日均成交额 | 558.94 百万元 | 市场走势 相关研究报告 《巨化股份（600160.SH）-制冷剂价格持续提升，一季度业绩大 幅增长》 ——2025-04-08 《巨化股份（600160.SH）-增资控股甘肃巨化新材料，夯实国内 氟化工龙头地位》 — ...

2025年04月25日 证券研究报告 | 自由现金流：新兴的价值蓝筹策略 年初，自由现金流策略在A股市场兴起，两只自由现金流策略ETF已经登陆市场；恒生指数公司也发布了港股市场的自由现金流策略指数。就此，我们对自由现金 流策略以及其在港股的潜在应用展开研究。 港股选股策略研究 自由现金流策略初探 行业研究·海外市场专题 港股 优于大市·维持 证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 我们观察了中国、美国市场上的自由现金流策略产品，发现它们的核心选股逻辑多为自由现金流比率（自由现金流/企业价值）。这个指标总体上可以被分解为 一个价值指标（低估值）和一个质量指标（低杠杆、高盈利价值），因此我们认为自由现金流策略是一个兼顾价值与质量的蓝筹股策略。 港股自由现金流因子：有效性显著，具备单向性 我们以自由现金流比率从高到低排序，测试该因子在港股的有效性。我们 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][15] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in overall retail value of 11.6% for the first quarter of 2025, with a 10.4% decline in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and a 20.7% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets. However, the decline in same-store sales has narrowed compared to the previous quarter [3][5] - The proportion of high-margin priced products has significantly increased, with the retail value of priced products in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) rising from 9.4% to 25.6% year-on-year, supporting the company's gross margin resilience [3][5] - The company continues to enhance store efficiency by closing 406 underperforming stores, with a total of 6,643 stores remaining at the end of the period. Additionally, five new image stores were opened in the Chinese market, achieving performance above the average of same-store sales [3][10] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Overall retail value decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a 10.4% decline in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and a 20.7% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets. Same-store sales in the Chinese market fell by 13.2%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [3][5] Product Sales Structure - The share of high-margin priced products has increased, with the retail value of priced products in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) rising from 9.4% to 25.6% year-on-year. The sales of the signature CTF Fortune and CTF Palace series reached approximately HKD 4 billion each for the fiscal year 2025 [3][5] Store Management - The company closed 406 underperforming stores, including 397 from the main CTF brand, resulting in a total of 6,643 stores at the end of the period. The company also opened five new image stores in the Chinese market, which performed better than the average same-store sales in the initial months [3][10] Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast for the fiscal years 2025-2027 at HKD 52.51 billion, HKD 61.54 billion, and HKD 68.84 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.3, 15.6, and 14 times [4][15]