证券研究报告 | 2025年04月25日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-04-24 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3297.28 | 9878.31 | 3784.35 | 10957.11 | 2668.62 | 1003.31 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.02 | -0.57 | -0.06 | -0.58 | -1.02 | -0.92 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4347.06 | 6743.13 | 2054.83 | 2455.11 | 3058.59 | 200.50 | 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 固定收益专题研究:公募基金一季度转债持仓分析-资金"被动转主动"， 绩优产品采取红利+科技策略 固定收益周报:政府债务周度观察-特别国债开启发行 行业与公司 医药生物周报（25 年第 16 周）：映恩生物完成港股 IPO，继续推荐关注 具备全球潜力的创新药标的 计算机行业专题：人工智能行 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][31] Core Views - The company is expected to see a decline in net profit for 2024, with a forecasted revenue of 27.51 billion yuan (up 2.8% year-on-year) and a net profit of 2.17 billion yuan (down 32.8% year-on-year). However, in the first quarter of 2025, the company is projected to turn a profit with a net profit of 690 million yuan (down 27.9% year-on-year, but up from a loss) [10][4] - The titanium dioxide market is experiencing increased supply, with domestic production expected to reach 4.67 million tons in 2024 (up 17% year-on-year). The average price for titanium dioxide is forecasted to decline, with an average of 15,526 yuan per ton in 2024 (down 2% year-on-year) [2][19] - The company is actively developing key projects to expand titanium concentrate production capacity, which is expected to support future growth despite current market pressures [3][20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 27.51 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.17 billion yuan, with a significant drop in net profit attributed to lower iron concentrate prices and underperformance in the new energy sector [10][4] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 7.05 billion yuan (down 3.2% year-on-year, up 6.1% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 690 million yuan (down 27.9% year-on-year, but turning profitable quarter-on-quarter) [10][4] Market Dynamics - The company’s titanium dioxide sales volume is expected to grow to 1.2545 million tons in 2024 (up 8% year-on-year), with international sales accounting for 57% of total sales [2][19] - The average price of titanium concentrate is projected to be 2,180 yuan per ton in 2024 (up 3% year-on-year), while iron ore prices are expected to decline [3][20] Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong position in the titanium dioxide industry, with an increasing self-sufficiency rate in titanium concentrate. However, increased competition and weak demand in some regions due to macroeconomic factors have led to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [4][31] - The revised net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 3.006 billion yuan and 3.894 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.26 yuan and 1.63 yuan [4][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][30] Core Views - The potassium fertilizer industry is experiencing a recovery, with accelerated construction of new production capacity [1][3] - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 35.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.5 billion yuan, down 23.1% year-on-year [1][10] - The company benefits from a reduction in export tariffs in Laos, which will lower costs and enhance profitability [3][29] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 3.8 billion yuan, exceeding expectations, with a revenue of 12.1 billion yuan, up 91.5% year-on-year [2][20] - The average selling price of potassium chloride in Q1 2025 was 2,255 yuan per ton, an increase of 9.7% year-on-year [2][20] - The company’s potassium chloride production in 2024 is projected to be 1.8154 million tons, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year, with sales of 1.7415 million tons, up 8.4% year-on-year [1][10] Tax Policy and Capacity Expansion - The Laos tax incentive policy will reduce the export tax rate from 7% to 1.5% and the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 20% from 2024 to 2028 [3][29] - The company aims to achieve a production capacity of 5 million tons of potassium fertilizer per year as part of its strategic direction to become a world-class supplier [3][29] Earnings Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 18.6 billion yuan and 27.3 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 32.9 billion yuan [4][29] - Corresponding EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 2.01 yuan, 2.94 yuan, and 3.54 yuan, with PE ratios of 13.4, 9.2, and 7.6, respectively [4][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][12][17] Core Views - The company's core business continues to expand, with significant growth in operating cash flow. In 2024, the main revenue reached 23.34 billion yuan, an increase of 18.79% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 560 million yuan, a decrease of 14.78%. The non-recurring net profit was 188 million yuan, up 59.36% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the main revenue was 4.658 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.74% [1][8] - The company has seen substantial growth in various business segments, including smart education (7.229 billion yuan, up 29.94%), smart healthcare (692 million yuan, up 28.18%), open platform and consumer business (7.886 billion yuan, up 27.51%), and smart automotive (989 million yuan, up 42.16%) [2][8] - The launch of the Spark large model V4.0 Turbo and the X1 deep reasoning model has positioned the company favorably in the AI sector, with applications across 43 professional scenarios [2][3] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's financial performance shows a projected revenue increase from 27.253 billion yuan in 2025 to 37.368 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit expected to rise from 1.278 billion yuan to 3.530 billion yuan during the same period [4][12] - The operating cash flow for 2024 reached 2.495 billion yuan, a significant increase of 613.40% year-on-year [2][4] - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.63%, remaining stable compared to the previous year, while the expense ratios for sales, management, and finance were 17.49%, 25.86%, and 0.58%, respectively [2][4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月24日 山高环能（000803.SZ） 优于大市 经营拐点显现，25Q1 归母净利同比增长 222% 油脂销售结构改善，2024年收入有所下滑。2024年公司实现营业收入14.49 亿元，同比下降 31%。其中工业级混合油业务收入 8.21 亿，同比下降 42.5%；环保无害化处理业务收入 3.13 亿，同比增长 7.1%；供暖业务收 入 3.06 亿，同比增长 4%；节能环保装备业务收入 0.58 亿，同比下滑 -93.2%。收入下滑主要系公司控制风险主动压缩外购油脂贸易销售业 务，提升自产油脂占比所致。2025 年一季度公司实现营业收入 4.34 亿 元，同比去年稳健增长 4.21%。 非经营事项对 2024 年归母净利影响较大，2025Q1 业绩大幅增长。2024 年公 司实现归母净利 1304 万元，同比增长 47.3%，经营状况有所改善。报告 期内有多项非经营事项扰动业绩：1）消化历史遗留联优诉讼事项，计 提营业外支出 3924 万元； 2）消化其他历史遗留低效资产计提减值 3506.28 万元；3）天津碧海项目《股权收购补充协议》中业绩对赌解除 收益 4625 万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic vascular intervention and electrophysiology sectors, with a well-established product pipeline and continuous new product approvals. It is expected to maintain rapid growth due to the high demand in the domestic electrophysiology and vascular intervention markets [2][31] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.066 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.2%, and a net profit of 673 million yuan, up 26.1% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 564 million yuan, with a growth of 23.9%, and a net profit of 183 million yuan, growing by 30.7% [8][31] - The company is set to benefit from the acceleration of domestic substitution driven by centralized procurement and the commercialization of its atrial fibrillation electrophysiology products, which will support sustained high revenue and profit growth in the future [8][31] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and profit growth rates are impressive, with a projected revenue of 2.663 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 28.9%, and a net profit of 876 million yuan, with a growth rate of 30.2% [3][2] - The company has effectively controlled its expense ratios, with a sales expense ratio of 18.0% and a net profit margin of 31.9% in 2024, indicating stable profit margins [8][14] Market Expansion - The company has expanded its market presence, with over 200 new hospital admissions for its electrophysiology products in 2024, covering more than 1,360 hospitals. The number of three-dimensional electrophysiology surgeries increased by over 50% year-on-year [25][59] - The company’s entry into the atrial fibrillation treatment market is marked by the approval of its AForcePlus catheter and other products, indicating a new era for its electrophysiology business [25][31] Product Pipeline - The company has a rich product pipeline in the electrophysiology and vascular intervention fields, with multiple key products approved for market entry in 2024, enhancing its competitive position [27][37] - The company’s three-dimensional electrophysiology mapping system is expected to lay a solid foundation for entering the pulsed field ablation (PFA) market, which is anticipated to grow significantly [61][49]

2025年04月24日 证券研究报告 | 人工智能行业专题： 大厂Agent来临，MCP拓宽应用边界 行业研究 · 行业专题 计算机 · 人工智能 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：熊莉 021-61761067 xiongli1@guosen.com.cn S0980519030002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 字节跳动：发布通用Agent，掀开大厂竞赛帷幕。4月18日晚间，字节跳动扣子空间开启内测，定位通用Agent，平台上用户可以选择精 通各项技能的通用实习生，也可以选择行业的领域专家，通过与AI的互动完成工作任务。扣子空间通过支持添加MCP扩展，AI Agent能 力边界被进一步扩展，接下来会有更多插件接入，MCP有望成为AI时代的HTTP协议。字节此举拉开了大厂布局通用Agent的序幕，阿里、 腾讯等公司有望迅速推进，相关生态有望加速扩张。 Ø 智谱：全栈自研，开源推动生态。3月31日，智谱在中关村论坛上正式发布AutoGLM沉思，本次全新智能体不仅具备深度研究能力，还能 实现实际操作。AutoGLM沉思利用了智谱 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月24日 东岳集团（00189.HK） 优于大市 制冷剂景气度向上，公司业绩持续向好 2024 年实现归母净利润 8.11 亿元，同比增长 14.6%。2025 年 4 月 22 日，公 司发布 2024 年报，根据公司公告，2024 年公司实现营收 141.81 亿元，同比 减少 2.2%；实现归母净利润 8.11 亿元，同比增长 14.6%；实现销售毛利率 21.62%，同比提升 4.81pct；实现销售净利率 6.96%，同比提升 2.76pct；实 现 EPS 0.46 元，同比提升 0.14 元。剔除公司房地产业务清理对公司其他业 务板块的影响，公司全年业绩符合预期。 制冷剂价格持续提升，公司制冷剂板块业绩快速增长。东岳集团为我国 R22 与 R32 生产能力与配额量的龙头企业，公司拥有约 22 万吨 R22 产能，约 6 万吨 R32 产能。配额方面，根据生态环境部，2025 年公司拥有 4.39 万吨 R22 配额，约占总配额的 29.46%，为国内最大配额；拥有 5.63 万吨 R32 配额， 约占总配额的 20.09%，仅次于巨化股份配额占比；公司合计拥有 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月24日 投资建议：小幅上调盈利预测，维持 "优于大市"评级。考虑到公司 25Q1 业绩略超预期，我们小幅上调盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润 0.88/1.25/1.45 亿元（2025-2026 原值为 0.83、1.23 亿元），同比增速 576.3%/41.3%/16.1%，当前股价对应 PE=29/21/18x，维持"优于大市"评级。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,101 | 1,449 | 1,631 | 1,724 | 1,818 | | (+/-%) | 17.3% | -31.0% | 12.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 9 | 13 | 88 | 125 | 145 | | (+/-%) | -89.6% | 47.3% | 576.3% | 41.3% | 16.1% | | 每股收益（元） | 0.02 | 0.03 | ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月24日 特锐德（300001.SZ） 优于大市 充电网业务快速增长，电力设备盈利能力显著提升 公司 2024 年实现归母净利润 9.17 亿元，同比+87%。最新会计准则口径下， 2024 年公司实现营收 153.74 亿元，同比+21%；实现归母净利润 9.17 亿元， 同比+87%；实现扣非归母净利润 7.64 亿元，同比+89%。公司 2024 年毛利率 为 25.92%，同比-0.32pct；净利率为 6.11%，同比+2.50pct。2024Q4 公司实 现营收 64.77 亿元，环比+83%；实现归母净利润 4.70 亿元，环比+86%；实 现扣非归母净利润 3.79 亿元，环比+68%。 公司电动汽车充电网业务实现快速增长。公司 2024 年电动汽车充电网业务 实现营收 48.90 亿元，同比+18%；实现归母净利润 2.08 亿元，同比+72%。 2024 年公司充电量突破 130 亿度，同比+40%。截至 2024 年末公司运营公共 充电桩数量达到 70.9 万个，稳居行业首位。公司持续加大充电网生态合作， 扩大产业协同。截至 2024 年底，公司在全国范围 ...