非银金融/证券Ⅱ 国金证券（600109.SH） 业绩好于预期，经纪两融市占率提升 2025 年 04 月 25 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/24 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 7.92 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 10.79/6.95 | | 总市值(亿元) | 294.03 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 253.40 | | 总股本(亿股) | 37.13 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 32.00 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 59.72 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 国金证券 沪深300 相关研究报告 《投行业务承压，Q3 自营投资同环比 高增—国金证券 2024 三季报点评》 -2024.11.4 《投行业务承压，一季度自营高基数 导致业绩同比下降—国金证券2023年 报及 2024 一季报点评》-2024.4.26 ——国金证券 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评 | 高超（分析师） | 卢崑（分析师） | | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guanghui Energy is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][11] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance is under pressure due to increased coal volume but decreased prices, emphasizing the growth potential in coal, oil, and chemical sectors along with high dividends [1][5] - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 36.44 billion yuan, down 40.7% year-on-year, and net profit at 2.96 billion yuan, down 42.6% year-on-year [1][6] - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to see a recovery in profits from 2025 onwards, with projected net profits of 3.58 billion yuan in 2025, 4.36 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.54 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 20.8%, 22%, and 3.9% respectively [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a coal production volume of 39.83 million tons, an increase of 78.5% year-on-year, while the sales volume reached 43.47 million tons, up 68% year-on-year [1][5] - The average selling price of coal has decreased significantly since Q3 2024, impacting the company's profitability [1][5] - The company plans to continue advancing its new projects in coal, oil, and chemical sectors, which are expected to enhance future growth [1][5] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company distributed a cash dividend of 0.622 yuan per share (before tax) in 2024, with an effective cash dividend of 0.70022 yuan per share, resulting in a current dividend yield of 12.5% based on the stock price as of April 24, 2025 [1][5]

沪光股份（605333.SH） 人形机器人项目首套样线下线，绑定赛力斯未来可期 2025 年 04 月 25 日 伐谋-中小盘信息更新 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/24 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 31.22 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 40.35/22.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 136.36 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 136.36 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.37 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 4.37 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 80.65 | ——中小盘信息更新 | 周佳（分析师） | 赵旭杨（分析师） | 张越（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | zhoujia@kysec.cn | zhaoxuyang@kysec.cn | zhangyue1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070004 | 证书编号：S0790523090002 | 证书编号：S0790524090003 | 公司人形机器人项目首套样线成功下线，第二增长曲线可期 2025 年 4 月 24 日沪光人形机器人 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longbai Group is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is facing pressure on its performance in 2024 but is actively advancing its mining development and internationalization of titanium dioxide [1] - The company reported a revenue of 27.54 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.78%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.79% [5] - The report highlights the potential for capacity expansion in the mining sector and the stability of profitability from titanium concentrate and titanium dioxide [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company produced 1.2955 million tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 8.74% year-on-year, and sold 1.2545 million tons, an increase of 8.25% year-on-year [5] - The average prices for titanium concentrate, titanium dioxide, and sponge titanium in 2024 were 2,181 yuan/ton, 15,572 yuan/ton, and 48,200 yuan/ton, respectively [5] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.52 billion yuan, 4.69 billion yuan, and 5.29 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.48 yuan, 1.96 yuan, and 2.21 yuan [5][6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its overseas market share and establishing overseas production bases to achieve a full-process internationalization from raw materials to sales [5] - Longbai Group is focusing on two key mining projects: the joint development of the Hongge North Mining Area and the development of the Xujia Gou Iron Mine, which are expected to sustain growth in mining capacity [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][15] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to downstream inventory destocking and price reductions, with expectations for demand recovery and new product ramp-up [1][7] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 560 million yuan, down 23.3% year-on-year [7][10] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 410 million, 526 million, and 637 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -27.2%, +28.3%, and +21.2% [7][10] Financial Summary - The current stock price is 19.88 yuan, with a market capitalization of 6.755 billion yuan [3] - The company's revenue and net profit projections for 2025 and 2026 are 2.15 billion and 2.58 billion yuan, and 410 million and 526 million yuan respectively [10][12] - The gross margin for 2024 is 44.4%, down 4.43 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is 24.65%, down 5.92 percentage points year-on-year [9][10] Business Performance - The company's sunscreen product shipments have declined due to slowing market demand and customer inventory digestion, with some product prices also decreasing [7][8] - The revenue from cosmetic active ingredients and synthetic fragrances in 2024 is 1.9 billion and 350 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.1% and +14.2% respectively [8] - The company is expanding its product lines and steadily progressing with new products, including a new high-end personal care product project with an annual capacity of 2,600 tons [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][14] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in Q1 performance, with both production and sales of potash fertilizer continuing to grow. The company is also advancing its potash production capacity expansion and non-potash business [1][5] - The 2024 annual report indicated a revenue of 3.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.97%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 950 million yuan, down 23.05% year-on-year. However, Q1 2025 showed a revenue of 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.47%, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, up 373.53% year-on-year [4][5] Financial Summary - The company plans to maintain a non-dividend policy for 2024, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 1.822 billion yuan, 2.408 billion yuan, and 2.926 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding EPS for these years is expected to be 1.97 yuan, 2.61 yuan, and 3.17 yuan [4][7] - The company’s potash production in 2024 is expected to reach 1.8154 million tons, with a sales volume of 1.7415 million tons. The average price per ton is estimated at 1,989 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 17.0% [5][9] - The company is benefiting from tax incentives in Laos, which will reduce the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 20% and the export tariff from 7% to 1.5% from 2024 to 2028 [5][10]

基础化工/化学制品 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/24 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 24.74 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 26.72/14.25 | | 总市值(亿元) | 667.92 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 667.92 | | 总股本(亿股) | 27.00 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 27.00 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 49.07 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 巨化股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2025Q1 经营情况超预期，制冷剂主 升行情徐徐展开—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.4.9 《2024 业绩预计符合预期，蓄势双击， 期 待 主 升 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.1.23 《制冷剂景气延续上行趋势，公司利 润释放或将不断向好—公司信息更新 报告》-2024.10.25 ——公司信息更新报告 巨化股份（600160.SH） 2024 业绩符合预期，趋势仍在延续，双击终会到来 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][11] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on overall performance due to increased product volume but decreased prices in 2024. The revenue for 2024 is projected at 26,692 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1,740 million yuan, a decrease of 33.64% year-on-year [4][5] - The company anticipates gradual recovery in profitability within the silicon industry chain, maintaining a "Buy" rating despite downward adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 26,692 million yuan, with a net profit of 1,740 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 33.64%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 286 million yuan, down 34.73% year-on-year and 39.97% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5,228 million yuan, a decrease of 3.47% year-on-year and 17.30% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 260 million yuan, down 50.81% year-on-year and 9.21% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The company forecasts net profits of 2,005 million yuan in 2025, 3,097 million yuan in 2026, and 4,004 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.70, 2.62, and 3.39 yuan respectively [4][5] Product and Price Trends - In 2024, the production of industrial silicon and organic silicon reached 1,871,000 tons and 1,621,000 tons, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 38% and 19%. Sales volumes were 1,230,000 tons and 949,000 tons, reflecting year-on-year increases of 21% and 11% [5] - The average prices for industrial silicon, silicone rubber, silicone oil, and cyclic siloxane in 2024 were 11,175 yuan, 12,405 yuan, 10,013 yuan, and 13,000 yuan per ton, showing year-on-year changes of -16.36%, -4.30%, +7.18%, and -2.23% respectively [5] - In Q1 2025, the average prices for these products further declined, with industrial silicon at 9,342 yuan per ton, down 29.80% year-on-year [5] Cost and Raw Material Trends - The procurement prices for key raw materials in 2024 showed significant decreases, with prices for ore, petroleum coke, and coal down by 4.24%, 44.27%, and 20.68% respectively [5] - The company expects that the current prices of industrial silicon and organic silicon are at the bottom of the cycle, with limited downward price pressure due to strong cost support [5]

基础化工/化学制品 巨化股份（600160.SH） 2024 业绩符合预期，趋势仍在延续，双击终会到来 2025 年 04 月 25 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/24 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 24.74 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 26.72/14.25 | | 总市值(亿元) | 667.92 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 667.92 | | 总股本(亿股) | 27.00 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 27.00 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 49.07 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 巨化股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2025Q1 经营情况超预期，制冷剂主 升行情徐徐展开—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.4.9 《2024 业绩预计符合预期，蓄势双击， 期 待 主 升 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.1.23 《制冷剂景气延续上行趋势，公司利 润释放或将不断向好—公司信息更新 报告》-2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][15] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic AI sector, and the report maintains a "Buy" rating due to its increased investment in R&D [4] - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 709 million, 920 million, and 1.184 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.31, 0.40, and 0.51 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 147.3, 113.6, and 88.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 23.343 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 560 million yuan, a decrease of 14.78% [5] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities that increased by 613.4% year-on-year [5] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 4.658 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 27.74%, but a net loss attributable to shareholders of 193 million yuan [5] R&D and Product Development - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment in AI, amounting to 740 million yuan, which has led to a rise in R&D expenses by 410 million yuan [6] - The company launched a major upgrade of its X1 deep reasoning model, which now competes with leading models from OpenAI and DeepMind, marking a significant advancement in its AI capabilities [7] - The commercial application of the company's large model has accelerated, with a reported revenue of 643 million yuan from AI solutions, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 122.56% [7] Financial Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 28.868 billion, 36.334 billion, and 45.388 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.7%, 25.9%, and 24.9% [8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 709 million yuan, with a growth rate of 26.6% compared to 2024 [8] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 42.6% for the forecasted years [8]