Investment Rating - The investment rating for 德昌股份 is "Add" [4] Core Views - The company reported an annual revenue of 4.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 410 million yuan, up 27.5% year-on-year [1][2] - The home appliance business exceeded expectations, generating 3.51 billion yuan in revenue, a 43% increase year-on-year, while the automotive parts business saw a significant growth of 105%, reaching 410 million yuan [2] - The company achieved a quarterly revenue of 1.11 billion yuan in Q4, reflecting a 71.4% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by the addition of new projects [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 410 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 10.0%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The automotive parts business turned profitable for the first time, with a gross margin of 21.7%, an increase of 11.4 percentage points year-on-year, surpassing the main business of home appliance OEM [3] - The company optimized its expense ratios, with reductions in sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 500 million yuan, 600 million yuan, and 720 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 20.4%, and 19.0% [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are estimated at 15x, 12x, and 10x [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, market risk appetite rebounded, leading to a slight decrease in overall bank holdings by institutions. There is an increased preference for cyclical and high-dividend stocks among institutional funds [1][2] - The overall public fund holdings in bank stocks decreased slightly, with a 1.5% decline compared to Q4 2024. Active public funds saw a significant decrease of 19.6% in holdings, while index funds and northbound capital increased by 7.4% and 0.8%, respectively [1][4] - Institutions are increasingly favoring mid-sized banks with strong fundamentals and high dividends, with notable increases in holdings for banks such as Shanghai, CITIC, Qingdao, Chongqing, and Ruifeng [2] - Northbound capital holdings remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.8% in Q1 2025. However, there was significant outflow from state-owned banks [2][3] Summary by Sections Institutional Holdings - By the end of Q1 2025, the proportion of institutional holdings in state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed by -0.8pc, +0.2pc, +0.3pc, and remained flat, respectively [1] - Active public funds reduced their holdings significantly, while passive public funds increased their positions in high-dividend banks [3][4] Individual Bank Performance - The banks with the largest increases in institutional holdings include Shanghai Bank (+3.9pc), CITIC Bank (+3.0pc), Qingdao Bank (+2.2pc), Chongqing Bank (+2.1pc), and Ruifeng Bank (+1.9pc) [2] - The index funds continued to increase their holdings in bank stocks, with a 7.4% rise in holdings by the end of Q1 2025, particularly in Shanghai Bank [3] Investment Strategy - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, emphasizing the combination of low risk appetite and low risk-free interest rates as favorable conditions for banks. The focus is on low volatility, high dividend yield, and banks located in economically developed regions [5] - Key recommendations include Pudong Development Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Chengdu Bank, along with high-dividend stocks like CITIC Bank, Chongqing Bank, and China Construction Bank [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report anticipates that Xiaomi's automotive deliveries will exceed market expectations, predicting 848,000 units by 2026, with the YU7 model contributing 360,000 units [1] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 356.6 billion CNY and 469.5 billion CNY, respectively, which are 16% and 31% higher than Bloomberg consensus [1] - The automotive business is expected to enhance Xiaomi's profit margins and expand its ecosystem barriers, driving a surge in dealer store openings [1][6] Summary by Sections Automotive Business Impact - Xiaomi's automotive business is projected to achieve profitability in 2025, with adjusted profits exceeding 10 billion CNY in 2026, driven by the success of the SU7 and YU7 models [6][13] - The SU7 model is expected to maintain a steady monthly sales volume of around 25,000 units in 2025, capturing approximately 23.13% of the 200,000-300,000 CNY price segment [28] - The YU7 is anticipated to capture a 16.2% market share in the 200,000-250,000 CNY SUV segment, with projected annual sales of 360,000 units [28] Ecosystem Expansion - Xiaomi's automotive sales are expected to create a "flywheel effect," enhancing the profitability of Xiaomi's retail stores and driving a surge in new store openings [29][36] - The integration of the Xiaomi HyperOS across over 200 product categories is set to facilitate data interconnectivity and enhance user experience across the "people, car, home" ecosystem [32][34] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 481.84 billion CNY, 636.48 billion CNY, and 716.47 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.7%, 32.1%, and 12.6% respectively [7][39] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 416.42 billion CNY, 613.35 billion CNY, and 655.96 billion CNY, with growth rates of 52.9%, 47.3%, and 6.9% [7][39] - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating a target price of 56.12 HKD per share based on a 20x PE for core business and a 3x PS for the automotive segment [42][43]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic supplier of electronic ceramics and third-generation semiconductors, focusing on the core track of domestic self-control. It has achieved mass supply of precision ceramic components, addressing critical supply chain issues, and its valuation is expected to improve [1][2]. - The company has a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% in revenue and 35% in net profit from 2016 to 2021, and it has opened new market opportunities following significant asset restructuring in 2023 [1][2]. - The electronic ceramics market in China is projected to reach nearly 100 billion, with a domestic production rate of only 23%, indicating substantial room for growth [1][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Electronic Ceramics and Third-Generation Semiconductors - The company is backed by China Electronics Technology Group and has established itself as a benchmark for self-control in the industry. It has successfully expanded into the third-generation semiconductor market through strategic acquisitions [16][25]. - The dual focus on electronic ceramics and third-generation semiconductors positions the company as a leader in domestic substitution and technological innovation [25][26]. 2. AI-Driven Upgrades in Optical Modules - The demand for high-end optical modules is expected to surge, with the company already achieving mass production of 800G optical communication device shells, comparable to international products [1][44][69]. - The company is investing in the construction of production lines for electronic ceramic shells, which will continue to release capacity and potentially lead to a performance inflection point [1][69]. 3. Precision Ceramic Components Breakthrough - The market for advanced structural ceramics in China is expected to reach approximately 28.6 billion by 2025, with the current domestic production rate at only 20% [79]. - The company has achieved breakthroughs in the domestic production of key components used in semiconductor equipment, which are expected to contribute significantly to profits and enhance valuation [1][76]. 4. Acquisition of Bowei and Guolian Wanzhong - The company completed a major asset restructuring in 2023, acquiring Bowei and Guolian Wanzhong to deepen its involvement in the third-generation semiconductor sector [2][19]. - Bowei focuses on GaN RF chips, with a market size of approximately 10.3 billion in 2023, while Guolian Wanzhong specializes in SiC automotive chips, benefiting from the rapid growth of the electric vehicle market [2][20]. 5. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 538 million, 701 million, and 876 million for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 30%, and 25% [3][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is a leader in high-altitude safety operation equipment for wind power globally, with domestic and international growth opportunities across multiple fields driving performance beyond expectations [1] - The domestic wind power market is experiencing high demand, with significant growth in new installations expected in 2025, projected at approximately 105-115 GW [3] - The company is expanding into overseas markets and other application fields, which are expected to provide additional growth momentum [4] Summary by Sections Market Expectations - The company's main business has limited market space, and there are concerns about the potential decline in domestic wind power business due to the increasing size of wind turbines [2] - There is uncertainty regarding the success of the company's expansion into other application areas [2] - The company's significant exposure to the U.S. market raises concerns about the impact of potential tariffs on performance [2] Performance Drivers - The domestic wind power market is thriving, with an expected annual average new installation capacity of 100 GW from 2024 to 2026, representing a CAGR of 11% [3] - Product optimization and solution iterations are enhancing the value of individual wind turbine configurations [3] - The company is also tapping into the vast potential of the wind power operation and maintenance market, which is expected to contribute to long-term performance [3] Overseas Market Expansion - The company has opportunities in the North American and European markets, which have substantial retrofitting needs [4] - There is significant room for improvement in market share in overseas markets, which could lead to incremental performance growth [4] Multi-Field Expansion - The company is diversifying its product offerings into various fields such as industrial and construction, emergency rescue, and power grids, moving towards a platform-based enterprise model [4] - New products like material conveyors and climbing machines are expected to become key products for the company [4] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 402 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 28% [10] - The expected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12, 11, and 9, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.04 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.47 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a significant increase in operating cash flow, reaching 2.97 billion yuan, which is a 115% year-on-year growth [1] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 590 million yuan, maintaining a payout ratio of 40% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.25 billion yuan, representing a 39% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 420 million yuan, up 36% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margins for four-wheeled and two-wheeled vehicles were 36.5% and 21.7% respectively, with a slight decline attributed to accounting policy changes [1] - The sales net profit margin for 2024 was 9.9%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, and the weighted average ROE was 26.3%, up 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] Product Matrix and Globalization - The company has optimized its product matrix with the launch of new models such as U10 PRO and X10, achieving a sales volume of 169,100 units for all-terrain vehicles in 2024, with a revenue of 7.21 billion yuan, an 11% increase year-on-year [2] - In the motorcycle segment, the company sold 286,500 units, generating a revenue of 6.04 billion yuan, a 37% year-on-year increase, with a strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets [3] - The electric vehicle segment saw a remarkable growth of 414% in revenue, reaching 400 million yuan, with significant expansion in both domestic and international markets [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 18.8 billion yuan, 22.9 billion yuan, and 27 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 21%, and 18% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.8 billion yuan, 2.2 billion yuan, and 2.6 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 24%, 22%, and 16% respectively [5] - The corresponding P/E ratios for the next three years are projected to be 13, 11, and 9 times [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 750 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.54%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 63.68% to 21 million yuan [1][4] - In Q4 2024, the revenue is 249 million yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, and the net profit is -16 million yuan [1][2] - For Q1 2025, the revenue is anticipated to drop by 26.9% to 124 million yuan, with a net profit of -29 million yuan [1][2] Revenue and Growth Outlook - The company is expected to face revenue pressure in the first half of 2025 due to inventory adjustments and a slowdown in hospital bidding [2] - New product commercialization is ongoing, with the introduction of electronic endoscopes, which may drive additional revenue [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 827 million, 1.046 billion, and 1.317 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 10.32%, 26.44%, and 25.95% [4][5] Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for 2024 is 68.1%, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a net profit margin of 2.7%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points [3] - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin is projected to be 66.36%, with a net profit margin of -23.28% due to revenue pressures and ongoing expenses [3] - Despite short-term profit pressures, there is an expectation for gradual improvement in net profit margins post-2025 [3] Financial Summary - The company’s financial projections indicate a significant recovery in net profit from 38 million yuan in 2025 to 207 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from 0.28 yuan to 1.54 yuan [4][5] - The price-to-sales ratio for 2025 is estimated at 7 times [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Mobile is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved steady revenue growth in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 263.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.02%. The main business revenue reached 222.4 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 30.6 billion yuan, growing by 3.5% year-on-year. The company aims for a trend of low growth in the first half of the year and higher growth in the second half [1][4] - The mobile user base stood at 1.003 billion, with a net decrease of 940,000 users compared to the end of 2024. The 5G user base reached 578 million, with a penetration rate of approximately 57.6%. The average revenue per user (ARPU) for mobile services was 46.9 yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively promoting AI+DICT projects and expanding its market share in the enterprise sector, while also enhancing its presence in emerging markets [2] Financial Summary - For the forecast period from 2025 to 2027, the expected revenue growth rates are 3.3%, 3.2%, and 3.1%, respectively. The net profit growth rates are projected at 5.1%, 5.0%, and 5.0% [4][6] - The company's operating expenses decreased by 1.22% year-on-year, with a notable reduction in sales expenses by 3.61% [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 31.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 45.0% year-on-year, primarily due to accelerated payments to private and small enterprises [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance shows steady growth, with a revenue of 263.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year. The main business revenue reached 222.4 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 30.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.5% increase year-on-year. The net profit margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 11.6% [1] - The company aims for a trend of low-to-high growth in annual performance, with guidance provided during the 2024 earnings briefing indicating a steady increase in revenue and good profit growth for 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an EBITDA of 80.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. The weighted average return on equity remained stable at 2.2% year-on-year [1] - The mobile user base stood at 1.003 billion, with a net decrease of 940,000 users compared to the end of 2024. The 5G user base reached 578 million, with a penetration rate of approximately 57.6% [2] - The company reported a mobile ARPU of 46.9 yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, while the family broadband user base increased to 328 million, with a quarterly net addition of 5.48 million users [2] Cost Management - Operating expenses decreased by 1.22% year-on-year, with significant reductions in sales expenses by 3.61% and other operating expenses by 8.16%. However, network operation support costs increased by 1.65% [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 31.3 billion yuan, a decline of 45.0% year-on-year, primarily due to accelerated payments to private and small enterprises [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue growth is projected at 3.3%, 3.2%, and 3.1% for 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth expected at 5.1%, 5.0%, and 5.0% respectively. The earnings per share are forecasted to be 6.74 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 16.76 [4][6]

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 自动化设备 1）场景优势：公司作为工控龙头，具有 40 多个行业的 Know-how，贴近一线下 游客户的真实需求，而这正是目前产业发展中最稀缺的一环，谁能先找到应用场 景，谁就能先进入产品开发-验证-迭代-量产的正循环。 2）平台优势：基于公司现有的电机、电压产品等技术平台，针对人形机器人轻 量化和高精度等需求进行定制化开发具备较高的确定性。相较于单一零部件生产 制造商，公司具备系统定义和集成能力。 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 短期，工控周期筑底，有望回升，新能源车业务进入收获期，稳步贡献利润；长 期，公司"战略力+产品力+组织力"持续发挥优势，国产替代加速，人形机器人 打开成长空间，有望再造一个汇川。预计公司未来三年营业收入为 376/455/546 亿元，归母净利润为 49/58/69 亿元，同比增长 4%/18%/19% 。EPS 分别为 1.8、 2.2、2.6 元。 ❑ 风险提示：制造业复苏不及预期；新能源汽车市场竞争加剧；产品技术开发进 度不及预期；人形机器人商业化进展不及预期。 工控龙头，人形机器人业务打开空间 ——汇川技术深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 我们认为公司在人形机器 ...