融创服务 01516.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 物管业务稳健增长，关联方影响进一步消 | | --- | --- | | 化 | | 核心观点 公司发布 2024 年度业绩公告，营业收入约为 69.7 亿元，同比基本持平；归母净亏损约 4.51 亿元，同比增亏 3.7%；归母核心净利润约 8.0 亿元，同比基本持平。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 维持增持评级，调整目标价至 1.73 港元。根据公司 24 年业绩公告，我们调整了对公 司在管面积和各项业务收入及毛利率预测值，下调了费用率的预测，同时考虑到 24 年公司进一步计提应收款减值，调整后公司 24-26 年 EPS 预测值为-0.15/0.16/0.16 元（原预测 24-25 年为 0.24/0.26 元），可比公司 25 年 PE 为 10x，对应目标价 1.73 港元（1 港元=0.926 人民币）。 风险提示 ⚫ 关联方应收账款压力进一步增大。外拓具备不确定性。资产减值损失风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

医疗美容 可复美延续高增长，可丽金提速，胶原龙头潜力可期 巨子生物（02367.HK） 证券研究报告/公司研究简报 2025 年 04 月 07 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：郑澄怀 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 3,526 | 5,539 | 7,056 | 8,893 | 11,021 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | | 48% | 57% | 27% | 26% | 24% | | 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 1,452 | 2,062 | 2,532 | 3,102 | 3,819 | | Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | | 109% | 42% | 23% | 23% | 23% | | | | 每股收益（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][16]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 7.47 billion for 2024, a decrease of 6.8% year-on-year, with pharmaceutical sales revenue at RMB 8.62 billion, down 9.0% [12][3]. - The impact of volume-based procurement (VBP) on existing products has largely been digested, with significant sales declines in certain product lines, while innovative products are showing growth [13][4]. - The company has made substantial progress in its innovative drug pipeline, with five products already commercialized and additional assets submitted for NDA approval [14][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was RMB 7.47 billion, down 6.8%, with a gross margin of 72.6%, a decline of 3.6 percentage points due to price cuts from VBP [12][3]. - R&D expenditure increased by 8.9% to RMB 890 million, accounting for 11.9% of total revenue, while selling expenses rose by 6.0% to RMB 2.66 billion [12][3]. - The annual profit was RMB 1.61 billion, down 32.3%, with adjusted net profit at RMB 1.71 billion, down 36.7% year-on-year [12][3]. Sales Breakdown - Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular product line sales were RMB 4.09 billion, down 18.8%, while dermatology and ophthalmology segments showed strong growth [13][4]. - Revenue from three VBP products was RMB 2.69 billion, down 28.8%, indicating that the short-term impact of centralized procurement has largely played out [13][4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to RMB 8.37 billion and RMB 9.44 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.5% and 13.3% [15][8]. - The target price is maintained at HKD 9.96 per share, corresponding to a 14x PE for 2025 [16][8].

研究报告 Research Report 7 Apr 2025 亚盛医药 Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK) 国内商业化表现稳健，全球化创新进入加速期 Domestic commercialization remains solid, while global innovation enters an accelerated phase [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$45.40 目标价 HK$51.90 HTI ESG 5.0-4.4-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$15.81bn / US$2.03bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$18.75mn 发行股票数目 348.27mn 自由流通股 (%) 70% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$47.70-HK$15.70 注：现价 HK$44.85 为 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [5][3][20] Core Views - The company experienced a 49% decline in net profit, primarily due to asset impairment and fair value reductions totaling 4.9 billion [1][9] - The company's sales and land acquisition performance is better than the industry average, ranking among the top three in the sector [1][11] - The company focuses on high-energy cities, with 79% of sales coming from first and second-tier cities, and maintains a high repayment rate of 104% [1][11] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 158.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, while net profit was 1.6 billion, down 49% [1][4] - The company’s total sales area in 2024 was 1,409 million square meters, a decrease of 9%, with total sales amounting to 276.8 billion, down 8% [1][11] - The company’s cash flow remains robust, with cash and cash equivalents of 73 billion and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.3 times [2][17] Project and Land Acquisition - In 2024, the company added 42 new projects with a total construction area of 4.18 million square meters, corresponding to a new value of 108.8 billion, a 24% decrease year-on-year [2][11] - The company’s land reserves focus on first and second-tier cities, with 76% of total land reserves located in these areas [2][11] Debt and Financial Structure - As of the end of 2024, the company had a total debt of 317 billion due within one year, accounting for 23% of total debt, with a financing cost of 3.7%, the lowest on record [2][17] - The company’s debt structure has improved, with bank loans now making up 76% of total debt [2][17] Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set at 142.1 billion and 146.4 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.7 billion and 1.8 billion [3][4] - The estimated EPS for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 0.66 and 0.71, corresponding to PE ratios of 13.8 and 12.9 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company has undergone a strategic transformation focusing on the development of metabolic drugs, particularly in the obesity treatment sector, with promising clinical data [1][2] - In 2024, the company reported a significant decline in revenue to 1.283 million (down 97.7% year-over-year) and a net loss of 301 million, attributed to reduced income post-COVID and increased R&D expenditures in the metabolic disease area [1][2] - The company has terminated its viral disease treatment pipeline and shifted its focus to obesity and metabolic disease clinical pipelines, with two new clinical candidates, ASC30 and ASC47, advancing to Phase I trials [2] Financial Summary - The company’s R&D expenses increased by 39.5% year-over-year to 302 million, with nearly 100 million allocated to metabolic disease research [2] - The projected net losses for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to -493.14 million and -417.02 million respectively, reflecting a significant downward adjustment of 57.5% and 29.5% from previous estimates [3] - The company has approximately 1.98 billion in cash and equivalents, expected to support operations until 2029 [2] Clinical Development Highlights - The company has reported strong efficacy results for its obesity drugs, with ASC30 showing an average weight reduction of 4.2% and 6.2% after 28 days of treatment in two cohorts [3] - ASC47 demonstrated a long half-life in Phase Ib trials, with a peak weight loss of 1.7% observed on day 50 after a single injection [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 16.34 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of 1.47 billion RMB, up 6.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 50%, with a proposed dividend of 1.332 RMB per share, marking a 33.5% increase from the previous year [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company reported a revenue of 163.4 billion RMB for 2024, with a gross profit of 29.8 billion RMB, and a net profit margin of 9.1%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points [1]. - The cash and bank balance at the end of 2024 was approximately 11.9 billion RMB, an increase of 7.8% compared to the end of 2023 [1]. Business Structure and Growth - The company has adjusted its business structure, leading to improved operational efficiency. The revenue from property management, non-owner value-added, and community value-added services was 116.7 billion RMB, 19.6 billion RMB, and 27.1 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of +15.0%, -6.4%, and -3.9% [2]. - The company has achieved a record high in external contract amounts, with 3 billion RMB in new third-party project contracts in 2024, focusing on core cities [3]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The company has effectively managed its cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of 2.3 billion RMB, covering net profit by 1.55 times. The accounts receivable net value was about 2.8 billion RMB, accounting for 17.1% of total revenue [3]. - The dividend payout ratio has been increased to 50%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1.57 billion RMB and 1.71 billion RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.8 billion RMB [4]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for the upcoming years are 11, 10, and 9 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating strong earnings visibility [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in its 2024 financial results, with total revenue of 28.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.01 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. The overall performance met the upper expectations, and after accounting for a new impairment of investment properties of 0.33 billion, the performance was considered to be above expectations [2][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The gross profit margin improved steadily, with an operating profit margin (OPM) performance exceeding expectations. In 2024, the gross margin increased by 1 percentage point to 49.4%, driven by improvements in e-commerce and direct sales discounts [9] - The OPM for the second half of the year increased by 0.9 percentage points to 8.9%, and when excluding the impairment of investment properties, the OPM increased by 3.3 percentage points to 11.2% [9] Revenue and Growth - The company maintained a healthy growth in channels, with revenue growth aligning closely with sales growth across all channels. The offline new retail accounted for 85% of total sales, and the inventory turnover ratio was stable at four months [9] - The revenue growth trend appears positive, although increased expenses are anticipated. The company expects to see growth in bulk sales, but the divestment of overseas business, which accounts for 2% of total sales, has caused some drag [9] Future Outlook - Short-term revenue growth may be challenging due to significant expense increases related to Olympic sponsorship and associated marketing costs. The company is expected to balance expenses with growth, but short-term revenue growth may not be evident [9] - In the medium to long term, the company is focusing on optimizing operational quality and seeking growth opportunities amid intensified competition. The management has been working on improving operational efficiency, which may lead to a healthier growth trajectory in the future [9]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 2025 年 04 月 07 日 证券分析师 张良卫 执业证书：S0600516070001 021-60199793 zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 速腾聚创（02498.HK） 2024 年业绩点评：业绩符合预期，智驾&机 器人平台化布局有望持续兑现 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1120 | 1649 | 2630 | 4202 | 5253 | | 同比(%) | 111.22 | 47.20 | 59.53 | 59.73 | 25.02 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (4,336.63) | (481.83) | (246.66) | 123.96 | 438.62 | | 同比(%) | (107.63) | 88.89 | 48.81 | 150.25 | 253.86 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (8.98) ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price range of HKD 163.40 to HKD 171.91 per share [5][3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading player in the building block character toy sector, benefiting from the rapid growth of the industry and its own proactive IP matrix development, brand promotion, and channel expansion [3][2]. - The company achieved a GMV of 8.77 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 169%, primarily driven by the successful launch of a series of building block character toys and the expansion of its sales network [15][17]. - The company has established a strong IP matrix with approximately 50 globally recognized IPs, including Ultraman and Transformers, which significantly contribute to its revenue [12][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2014, the company specializes in the research, production, and sales of building block character toys, achieving the highest market share in China's building block character toy industry in 2023 [12][2]. - The company has developed a multi-dimensional IP matrix, with Ultraman accounting for 48.9% of its revenue in 2024 [12][2]. Industry Overview - The Chinese building block character toy market reached a GMV of 5.8 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.6% from 2019 to 2023, and is projected to reach 32.5 billion by 2028 [2][45]. - The overseas market for building block character toys is also expanding, with a GMV of 22.1 billion in 2023, expected to grow at a CAGR of 24.9% to 67.1 billion by 2028 [2][45]. Financial Forecast and Metrics - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 22.41 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 155.61%, with a net profit of 1.03 billion expected by 2025 [4][3]. - The overall gross margin is expected to reach 52.6% in 2024, reflecting improvements in production efficiency and scale effects [33][4]. Growth Potential - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the industry's rapid growth, supported by its strong IP matrix and effective supply chain management, which allows for quick product launches and competitive pricing [2][69]. - The increasing consumer demand for emotional and experiential purchases, particularly among younger demographics, presents significant growth opportunities for the company [50][53].