Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to JD Group, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [2][6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that JD Group is expected to continue enhancing its platform ecosystem, leading to sustained performance growth. The retail GMV and revenue are projected to show healthy growth, with JD Logistics benefiting from the 618 shopping festival [5][6]. Financial Summary - The adjusted revenue forecasts for JD Group for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E are RMB 1,120.9 billion, RMB 1,177.1 billion, and RMB 1,237.7 billion, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 3%, 5%, and 5% [6][9]. - The adjusted net profit estimates for the same periods are RMB 40.3 billion, RMB 42.4 billion, and RMB 46.8 billion, indicating growth rates of 15%, 5%, and 10% [6][9]. - The report anticipates a revenue of RMB 290.1 billion for FY2024Q2, with a year-on-year increase of 1% [6][9]. Retail Business Insights - JD Retail is expected to benefit from the platform ecosystem, with GMV growth outpacing revenue growth by 1-2%. The company is simplifying merchant onboarding processes and enhancing user experience, which is likely to increase active merchants and customer satisfaction [6][9]. Logistics Business Insights - JD Logistics is projected to gain from the 618 shopping festival, with a high certainty of revenue growth. The report notes that national express delivery volume exceeded 15 billion packages in June 2024, indicating strong demand [6][9].

浦银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网行业 京东(9618.HK/JD.US):二季度收入 预计保持平稳,利润或优于预期 受去年高基数影响,我们预计公司二季度收入同比基本持平,利润率 或优于预期,维持美股目标价 31 美元,维持港股目标价 122 港元, 维持"持有"评级。 受去年高基数影响,公司短期收入增长或承受一定压力。按品类看, 去年同期疫情放开后,家电品类需求得到强劲释放,或导致今年二季 度呈现下滑;电脑数码预计仍持续受行业大盘需求疲弱影响。因此, 我们预计公司二季度带电品类将录得一定下滑。日用百货品类预计将 延续良好增长势头,尤其是商超品类的持续推动。 随着公司平台生态的持续优化,我们预计公司二季度用户数及订单量 仍将实现快速增长,而受品类结构影响,客单价或有所下滑。由于公 司补贴力度相对控制以及运营效率优化,利润率有望优于我们先前预 期。 我们预计公司二季度收入同比增长 1%至 2,904 亿元,调整后净利润 同比增长 14%至 98 亿元,调整后净利润率同比改善 0.4pp 至 3.4%。 随着高基数消退,我们预计公司三季度收入有望恢复常态增长。 投资风险:行业竞争加剧;用户增长不及预期;利润率 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6]. Core Views - The report anticipates steady performance in e-commerce business with notable profit growth, projecting a revenue increase of 1% year-on-year for Q2 2024, reaching CNY 290.9 billion. The Non-GAAP net profit margin is expected to rise by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 3.4% [2][3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For Q2 2024, JD Group's revenue is projected at CNY 290.9 billion, reflecting a 1% year-on-year growth. The retail revenue growth is also expected to be 1%, with a two-year CAGR of 4%. The report highlights a decline in the sales of electronic products while the supermarket category shows signs of recovery with high single-digit growth [2][3][4]. - The report estimates that JD Retail, JD Logistics, and new business segments will see revenue growth rates of 1%, 10%, and 42% respectively for Q2 2024 [2][3]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted to be CNY 37.2 billion, with a 16% year-on-year increase, driven by disciplined spending and improved gross margins [2][6]. Adjustments to Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to CNY 1,151.2 billion, CNY 1,224.3 billion, and CNY 1,305.3 billion, reflecting adjustments of -1.4%, -1.9%, and -2.8% respectively. This is primarily due to limited government support for trade-in programs and weak growth in the electronic category [2][6]. - Conversely, the adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period have been increased to CNY 37.2 billion, CNY 41.4 billion, and CNY 44.8 billion, with adjustments of 2.2%, 0.6%, and 0.1% respectively, attributed to controlled spending and continuous gross margin improvement [2][6]. Target Price and Shareholder Returns - The target price for JD Group is maintained at HKD 162-194, indicating a potential upside of 45%-73% from the current levels. The report notes that the total shareholder return from dividends and buybacks in 2023 is approximately 4% [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][9][15] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 260 billion yuan for Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.0%, while Non-GAAP net profit reached 8.9 billion yuan, up 12.66% year-on-year [4][5][9] - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, with a total of 98.3 million A-class ordinary shares repurchased for 1.3 billion USD from January 1, 2024, to May 15, 2024, which is approximately 3.1% of its outstanding shares as of December 31, 2023 [4][9] - The report highlights strong performance in various segments, including a 5.3% increase in home appliances and 8.6% in fast-moving consumer goods [4][5] Financial Analysis - Q1 2024 revenue was 260 billion yuan, a 7.0% increase year-on-year, with Non-GAAP net profit of 8.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.66% growth [5][6] - Active user numbers and merchant ecosystem have shown double-digit growth, with over one million third-party merchant stores [5][6] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2024 was 15.29%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, while marketing expenses rose to 3.6% of revenue [7][8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of 36.4 billion, 40.1 billion, and 44.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9][11] - The report estimates a reasonable market capitalization range of 458.7 billion to 516.1 billion HKD for 2024, corresponding to a fair value range of 144 to 162 HKD per share [9][10]

公司研究 | 季报点评 京东集团-SW 09618.HK 买入（维持） 利润超预期，商超恢复向好 股价（2024年05月30日） 113.4港元 目标价格 131.1港元 52周最高价/最低价 160/79.32港元 总股本/流通H股（万股） 318,343/286,022 H股市值（百万港币） 361,001 核心观点 国家/地区 中国 行业 商业贸易 ⚫ 公司发布FY1Q24业绩，利润超预期。 24Q1实现收入2600.5亿元（彭博一致预期 报告发布日期 2024年06月02日 为2583.5亿元），同比+7.0%，Non-GAAP归母净利润89.0亿元，同比+17.2%。 ⚫ 商品收入：公司24Q1实现商品收入2085.1亿元（+6.6%），大商超带动日百品类 1周 1月 3月 12月 快速恢复。1）带电类：1Q24实现收入1232亿元（+5.3%），社零数据家电/通讯/ 绝对表现% -8.33 -1.22 30.93 -10.32 文化办公类24Q1同比分别+5.8%/+13.2%/-8.0%。2）日百类：1Q24实现收入853 相对表现% -4.95 -3.85 20.52 -8.35 亿元（+8. ...

[Table_Page] 季报点评|可选消费 证券研究报告 [【Table_广Title] 发商社&海外】京东(JD)/京东 公[Ta司ble评_Inv级est ] 买入-美股/买入-H 当前价格 35.27美元/134.10港元 集团-SW(09618.HK) 合理价值 39.25美元/153.11港元 前次评级 买入/买入 1Q24：大商超增速转正, 用户和商家数量均双位数增长 报告日期 2024-05-19 [ 核Tabl 心e_Su 观mm 点ary] ：（如无特别说明，本文货币均采用人民币单位） [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 京东发布1Q24公告，1Q24收入2600.5亿元（人民币，下同），同比 50% 30% 增长7.0%，基本符合预期。1Q24 non-GAAP归母净利润89.0亿元， 10% -10% 同比增长17.2%。1Q24公司毛利率15.3%，较1Q23提升0.47pps。 -30% -50% ⚫ 1Q24 零售收入 2085.1 亿元，同比增长 6.6%。公司延续免佣门槛降 -70% 低、品类结构优化、仓网变革等改革措施，免佣门槛降低带来的客单价 -90% 0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [4]. Core Insights - JD Group reported a strong performance in Q1 2024, with revenue reaching 260 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - The company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit of 8.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.2%, with a net profit margin of 2.7% [1]. - JD Retail's revenue for Q1 2024 was 226.8 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year, outperforming market expectations [2]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 42.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.73%, also exceeding market expectations [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing user experience, with significant growth in active user numbers and shopping frequency [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, JD Group's total revenue was 260 billion yuan, with product revenue at 208.5 billion yuan and service revenue at 51.5 billion yuan [1]. - The operating expenses showed a slight improvement in efficiency, with R&D, sales, management, and fulfillment expense ratios changing to 1.55%, 3.56%, 0.76%, and 6.46% respectively [1]. Retail Segment - JD Retail's revenue reached 226.8 billion yuan, with a notable performance in electronic products and daily necessities, which grew by 5.3% and 8.6% year-on-year respectively [2]. - The company is implementing a trade-in program to stimulate demand, which is expected to enhance market share in the electronics category [2]. Logistics Segment - JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 42.1 billion yuan, with a significant increase in operational efficiency, providing integrated supply chain services to international brands [3]. - The logistics segment is expected to benefit from the expansion of JD's global supply chain network, facilitating the internationalization of Chinese brands [3]. Future Outlook - The overall consumption is expected to stabilize in 2024, with JD's various categories projected to return to healthy growth rates [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 1,177.5 billion yuan, 1,318.9 billion yuan, and 1,459.9 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.6%, 12.0%, and 10.7% respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is maintained as "Buy" [2][5][11] Core Insights - The company is increasing investments in user experience, merchant subsidies, and marketing while maintaining strict cost control on procurement and logistics efficiency. The non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised to 36.2 billion, 41 billion, and 45.7 billion respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 3.2%, 13.3%, and 11.3% [5][6] - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue grew by 7% year-on-year, aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations, while non-GAAP net profit reached 8.9 billion, exceeding expectations due to better-than-expected gross margin performance and reduced losses in logistics and new businesses [6][7] - The company expects GMV growth in 2024 to exceed that of social retail, focusing on enhancing user experience and market share, with core categories benefiting from consumption promotion policies [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company projects revenue of 115.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%. Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 36.2 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.2% [8] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 15.5% in 2024, while net profit margin is expected to slightly decline to 3.1% [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its market share and enhancing its platform ecosystem, which is expected to drive valuation recovery as performance stabilizes with macroeconomic recovery [5][6] - The company maintains strong bargaining power in procurement, which is anticipated to lower costs further, while also managing R&D and administrative expenses tightly [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to HKD 122 / USD 31, reflecting a potential downside of 8% from the current price of HKD 132.4 / USD 34.27 [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 revenue reached RMB 260 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, slightly above market expectations. Adjusted net profit was RMB 8.9 billion, up 17% year-on-year, with an adjusted profit margin of 3.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points [1]. - The report highlights a recovery in performance, particularly in the supermarket category, with a 6.6% year-on-year growth in product revenue. The platform's order volume saw double-digit growth, offsetting a decline in average transaction value due to low pricing strategies [1]. - Logistics profit margins improved significantly, while retail profit margins saw a slight decline. Service revenue grew by 8.8% year-on-year, driven by logistics growth, while retail operating profit margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 4.1% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY22, the company reported revenue of RMB 1,046,236 million, with projected revenues of RMB 1,084,662 million for FY23 and RMB 1,146,450 million for FY24E. The adjusted net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 35,355 million [2][5]. - The gross profit for FY22 was RMB 147,073 million, with projections of RMB 159,704 million for FY23 and RMB 171,529 million for FY24E, indicating a steady growth trajectory [5]. - The report forecasts an adjusted P/E ratio of 10.0x for FY24E, decreasing to 8.9x by FY26E, reflecting a potential valuation compression over the forecast period [2][5].

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 批零贸易业 [ Table_Main[ 京 TIna 东fbole] 集 _T 团itle -] S W（9618） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 132.40 高投入下利润超预期，内容生态打造新增长极 2024.05.18 海 ——京东集团 FY24Q1 业绩点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_据M arket] 外 秦和平(分析师) 李奇(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 82.50- 159.80 公 0755-23976666 0755-23976888 当前股本（百万股） 3,183 司 qinheping027734@gtjas.com liqi028295@gtjas.com 当前市值（百万港元） 421,486.71 （ 证书编号 S0880523110003 S0880523060001 中 本报告导读： [ Table_PicQuote] 国 高补贴高投入下，净利润仍实现超预期增长。商城变革见成效，3P 生态持续建设， 52周内股价走势图 香 加码内容生态、扶持直播，有望打造新增长极。 京东集团-SW 恒 ...