Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - JD Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached 260.4 billion yuan (yoy +5.1%), with Non-GAAP operating profit at 13.1 billion yuan (yoy +17.9%) and Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders at 13.2 billion yuan (yoy +23.9%) [1] - JD Retail's operating margin remained stable at 5.2% yoy, with a sequential improvement of 1.3 percentage points [1] - Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months (TTM) as of September 2024 was 33.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 22 billion yuan from June 2024 and 5.8 billion yuan yoy, primarily due to delayed accounts payable and inventory buildup for the trade-in program [1] - The trade-in policy drove a rebound in 3C and home appliance revenue, with 3C and home appliance sales reaching 122.6 billion yuan (yoy +2.7%), reversing the -4.6% decline in Q2 2024 [1] - JD Logistics saw a significant improvement in profitability, with operating profit surging 624% yoy to 2.09 billion yuan and operating margin increasing to 4.7% from 0.7% in Q3 2023 [1] - JD's Double 11 shopping festival in 2024 exceeded expectations, with active users growing by double digits, daily active buyers increasing by over 20%, and purchase frequency also growing by double digits [1] Business Performance by Segment JD Retail - Revenue: 225 billion yuan (yoy +6.1%) [1] - Operating profit: 11.6 billion yuan (yoy +5.5%) [1] - Operating margin: 5.2% (flat yoy) [1] JD Logistics - Revenue: 44.4 billion yuan (yoy +6.6%) [1] - Operating profit: 2.09 billion yuan (yoy +624%) [1] - Operating margin: 4.7% (up from 0.7% in Q3 2023) [1] New Businesses (Including Dada, Jingxi, Overseas, and JD Property) - Revenue: 5 billion yuan (yoy -25.7%) [1] - Operating loss: 600 million yuan [1] Key Strategies - Low-price strategy: JD has implemented a matrix of low-price activities, including the "JD Super 18" event every month, weekly "Black Friday" promotions, and daily "Midnight Sale" events [1] - Trade-in program: The policy has successfully driven growth in the 3C and home appliance categories [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue growth for 2024-2026 is projected at 5.26%, 5.09%, and 5.00%, respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 45.7 billion yuan, 49.2 billion yuan, and 52.9 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [1] - Long-term profit margin target is set at high single digits [1] Revenue Breakdown by Category Electronics and Home Appliances - Revenue: 553.3 billion yuan (2024E), 568.3 billion yuan (2025E), 585.3 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 2.7% (2024E), 2.7% (2025E), 3.0% (2026E) [6] Daily Necessities - Revenue: 360 billion yuan (2024E), 387 billion yuan (2025E), 414.1 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 8.3% (2024E), 7.5% (2025E), 7.0% (2026E) [6] Platform and Advertising Services - Revenue: 88 billion yuan (2024E), 91.6 billion yuan (2025E), 95.2 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 3.9% (2024E), 4.0% (2025E), 4.0% (2026E) [6] Logistics and Other Services - Revenue: 140.3 billion yuan (2024E), 152.9 billion yuan (2025E), 165.2 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 9.0% (2024E), 9.0% (2025E), 8.0% (2026E) [6] Key Assumptions - Electronics and home appliances: Continued growth driven by trade-in policies and government subsidies, with 3C and home appliance revenue expected to increase in Q4 2024 [5] - Daily necessities: Lower shipping thresholds and optimized platform rules are expected to sustain a 7%+ GMV growth rate for 2025-2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group [4][6] Core Views - JD Group reported Q3 2024 revenue of 260.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The revenue breakdown includes JD Retail at 225 billion yuan, JD Logistics at 44.4 billion yuan, and new businesses at 5 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 6.1%, 6.6%, and -25.7% [2][3] - The operating profit for the quarter was 12 billion yuan, with JD Retail, JD Logistics, and new businesses having operating profit margins of approximately 5.2%, 4.7%, and -12.4% respectively. The non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 24% year-on-year growth, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of about 5.1% [2][3] - The report highlights the continuous expansion of product categories and improvement in profit structure, driven by effective policies such as the trade-in program and the growth of high-margin businesses [3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 1,136.3 billion yuan, 1,197.9 billion yuan, and 1,260 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5% for each year. Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 41.8 billion yuan, 46.5 billion yuan, and 51.1 billion yuan, with growth rates of 19%, 11%, and 10% respectively [4][5] - The report estimates a reasonable market capitalization of 465.3 billion yuan for JD Group, corresponding to target prices of 40 USD and 157 HKD [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 178.4 per share, based on a 2024 PE multiple of 11x for the retail business and a valuation of RMB 525 billion [2][9] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 260.39 billion (YoY +5.1%) and non-GAAP net profit of RMB 13.17 billion (YoY +23.9%) [1] - The retail segment achieved revenue of RMB 224.99 billion (YoY +6.1%) and operating profit of RMB 11.61 billion (YoY +5.5%), driven by strong growth in electronics and supermarket categories [1] - The logistics segment saw a significant improvement in profitability, with revenue of RMB 44.4 billion (YoY +6.6%) and operating profit of RMB 2.09 billion (YoY +624.3%) [1] Business Segment Analysis Retail Business - Revenue reached RMB 224.99 billion in Q3 2024, with electronics and home appliances benefiting from government subsidies and the Double 11 shopping festival [1] - The segment is expected to maintain strong growth in Q4, supported by expanded subsidy coverage and increased consumer awareness [1] Logistics Business - Achieved revenue of RMB 44.4 billion in Q3 2024, with operating profit surging 624.3% YoY to RMB 2.09 billion, driven by scale effects and supply chain optimization [1] Product Revenue Breakdown - Electronics revenue grew 2.7% YoY to RMB 122.56 billion, supported by the government's appliance replacement policy [1] - Daily necessities revenue increased 8.0% YoY to RMB 82.05 billion, with supermarket and apparel categories maintaining double-digit growth [1] Service Revenue Breakdown - Platform revenue grew 6.3% YoY to RMB 20.76 billion, driven by a 20%+ increase in third-party merchant users and double-digit growth in advertising revenue [1] - Logistics and other service revenue increased 6.5% YoY to RMB 35.01 billion [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 1,138.5 billion, RMB 1,209.8 billion, and RMB 1,287.8 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profit of RMB 42.1 billion, RMB 47.2 billion, and RMB 50.7 billion [2][9] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 14.7% in 2023 to 15.9% in 2026, while net margin is forecasted to increase from 2.23% to 3.69% over the same period [3] Valuation - The company's retail business is valued at RMB 315.665 billion based on a PE multiple, with a total equity value of RMB 524.986 billion [13] - The target price of HKD 178.4 per share implies a 29.7% upside from the current price of HKD 137.5 [4][9]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades JD com (9618 HK/JD US) to a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 162/USD 42 [4][5] Core Views - JD com's core categories, particularly digital appliances, are benefiting from the trade-in policy, driving a recovery in sales [4] - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 260 4 billion, up 5 1% YoY, with digital appliances growing 2 7% YoY [4] - Daily necessities revenue grew 8 0% YoY, with supermarket, apparel, and sports/outdoor categories achieving double-digit growth [4] - Active users grew double-digit YoY for four consecutive quarters, with a 20% YoY increase in shopping users during Double 11 [4] - Q3 2024 gross margin reached 17 3%, up 1 7pp YoY, with adjusted net profit growing 24% YoY to RMB 13 2 billion [5] - JD Retail's operating margin improved by 2 6pp YoY to 5 2%, while JD Logistics' operating margin increased by 4 0pp YoY to 4 7% [5] - The company repurchased USD 3 9 billion in Q3 2024, totaling USD 3 6 billion in the first three quarters [5] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow 5 7% YoY in Q4 2024, with full-year revenue projected at RMB 1,135 4 billion for FY24E [4][7] - Gross profit is forecasted to reach RMB 178 3 billion in FY24E, up 11 7% YoY [7] - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow 27 4% YoY to RMB 44 8 billion in FY24E [7] - The company aims for a high single-digit net profit margin in the long term, driven by economies of scale, product mix optimization, and 3P contributions [5] Valuation and Market Expectations - The target price of HKD 162/USD 42 implies a 10x FY24E P/E ratio [5] - The current price of HKD 137 2/USD 35 19 offers a potential upside of 18%/19% [8] - The 52-week price range for JD com is HKD 81 55-192 3/USD 20 8-47 8 [8] Industry Context - The report covers JD com within the broader internet and e-commerce sector, highlighting its competitive positioning and growth drivers [4][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD com Inc -SW (09618) with a 6-month target price of 132 6 HKD [1] Core Views - JD com s Q3 2024 performance showed significant improvement in profitability with a 23 9% YoY increase in Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders reaching 13 2 billion RMB [1] - The company s revenue for Q3 2024 reached 260 4 billion RMB a 5 1% YoY growth with service revenue growing 6 5% YoY to 55 8 billion RMB [1] - JD com initiated a $5 billion share repurchase plan with $3 6 billion already repurchased by September 30 2024 representing 8 1% of its outstanding shares as of December 31 2023 [1] Operational Highlights - JD com benefited from the "trade-in" policy with 3C and home appliance categories showing accelerated growth and double-digit increases in active users and shopping frequency for three consecutive quarters [1] - During the 11 11 shopping festival JD com s user count increased by over 20% YoY [1] - JD Retail achieved a 6 1% YoY revenue growth to 225 billion RMB with operating profit increasing 5 5% YoY to 11 608 billion RMB [1] - The electronics and home appliance category grew 2 7% YoY to 122 56 billion RMB while daily necessities and groceries grew 8 0% YoY to 82 053 billion RMB [1] - Third-party merchant orders grew over 30% YoY with user count increasing over 20% YoY [1] JD Logistics Performance - JD Logistics revenue grew 6 6% YoY to 44 4 billion RMB with operating profit reaching 2 086 billion RMB significantly exceeding market expectations of 1 265 billion RMB [1] - JD Logistics expanded its overseas supply chain network opening new self-operated warehouses in the US and Malaysia and planning to increase global self-operated warehouse area by over 100% by the end of 2025 [1] Strategic Initiatives - JD com is focusing on building a second growth curve in categories like daily necessities and apparel with apparel category showing double-digit growth [1] - The company is increasing marketing resources for JD Supermarket aiming for over 30% share of content marketing resources within JD and a 30% increase in external marketing investments [1] - JD Logistics is advancing its "Global Weaving Plan" to enhance its global supply chain network and support Chinese brands in going global [1] Financial Projections - The report adjusts JD com s 2024-2026 revenue forecasts to 11 357/12 335/12 652 billion RMB with YoY growth rates of 4 7%/8 6%/2 6% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is projected at 44 9/49 5/50 8 billion RMB [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618 HK) [4] Core Views - JD Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached 2604 billion RMB (YoY +5%, QoQ -11%), slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [4] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.2 billion RMB (YoY +24%, QoQ -9%), significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations [4][15] - The company has repurchased $3.6 billion worth of shares as of September 30, 2024, with a new share repurchase plan allowing up to $5 billion in buybacks by August 2027 [4] Business Performance JD Retail - JD Retail revenue grew 6% YoY to 2250 billion RMB in Q3 2024, driven by increased active users and order volume [6] - The "Spring Dawn Plan" upgrade introduced 15 new initiatives, including traffic support and advertising subsidies, leading to over 20% YoY growth in third-party merchant transaction users and over 30% YoY growth in order volume [6] - Electronics category revenue grew 3% YoY, benefiting from national subsidy policies for trade-in programs [6] - Daily necessities category revenue grew 8% YoY, with supermarket and apparel categories achieving double-digit growth [6] JD Logistics - JD Logistics revenue reached 44.4 billion RMB in Q3 2024 (YoY +7%, QoQ flat) [9] - Operating profit margin improved by 4.0 percentage points YoY to 4.7% [9] - Integrated supply chain customer revenue grew 5.4% YoY to 20.7 billion RMB [9] - Other customer revenue grew 7.6% YoY to 23.7 billion RMB, driven by growth in express delivery and freight services [9] Financial Metrics - Gross profit was 45 billion RMB in Q3 2024 (YoY +16%, QoQ -2%), with a gross margin of 17.3% [17] - Operating profit was 12 billion RMB (YoY +29%, QoQ +15%), with an operating margin of 4.6% [17] - Net profit was 12.8 billion RMB (YoY +56%, QoQ -6%), with a net profit margin of 4.9% [17] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are raised to 11,399/12,075/12,737 billion RMB [24] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is projected at 37.7/43.1/47.5 billion RMB [24] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated at 45/51.1/55.4 billion RMB, with Non-GAAP P/E ratios of 9/8/7X [24] - Target price is set at 164 RMB/177 HKD based on SOTP valuation, implying a target market cap of 523.1 billion RMB for 2025 [24][25] Market Performance - JD Group's stock price has shown significant outperformance relative to the Hang Seng Index, with 12-month returns of 28.7% compared to the index's 7.5% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618) and raises the target price to 176 HKD from 166 HKD based on the SOTP valuation method [3][19] Core Views - JD Group's revenue growth has rebounded under the trade-in policy, with profits exceeding expectations [2][3] - JD Retail's revenue increased by 6.1% YoY in FY24Q3, driven by growth in active users and shopping frequency, particularly benefiting from the trade-in policy [3] - JD Logistics achieved a significant increase in operating profit margin to 4.7%, with operating profit reaching 2.09 billion RMB, far exceeding market expectations [3] - The company's gross margin improved to 17.3%, up 0.7 percentage points YoY, attributed to higher-margin general merchandise and reduced logistics costs [3] Financial Performance - JD Group's FY24Q3 revenue grew 5.1% YoY to 260.4 billion RMB, with merchandise and service revenues increasing by 5% and 6% respectively [3] - Non-GAAP net profit surged 29.3% YoY to 13.2 billion RMB, surpassing the expected 11.4 billion RMB [3] - JD Logistics' revenue rose 6.6% YoY to 44.4 billion RMB, with cost control measures leading to only a 2.2% YoY increase in costs [3] Business Segment Analysis - JD Retail's revenue reached 225 billion RMB in FY24Q3, with electronics and home appliance sales growing 3% YoY and daily necessities sales increasing 8% YoY [3] - JD Logistics' operating profit margin improved significantly, driven by effective cost management and low single-digit growth in labor costs [3] Valuation and Outlook - JD Group's valuation is supported by its strong supply chain capabilities, which provide efficiency advantages in inventory turnover, gross margin, and fulfillment costs [19] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in consumer spending, with platform ecosystem improvements and content ecosystem development driving future growth [21] - Revenue forecasts for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E are adjusted to 1,128.2 billion RMB, 1,183.2 billion RMB, and 1,243.0 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits projected at 44.8 billion RMB, 48.0 billion RMB, and 51.7 billion RMB [3][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 260.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with NON-GAAP net profit of 13.2 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year [4]. - The core 3C home appliance category benefited from national subsidies, with revenue growth expected to continue into Q4 [4]. - JD Logistics achieved a record high profit of 2.57 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a 205% increase year-on-year, driven by technological innovations and operational efficiency [4]. - The company has initiated a new share repurchase plan, with a total of 255.3 million A shares repurchased for 3.6 billion USD as of September 30, 2024 [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1,141.4 billion yuan, 1,208.0 billion yuan, and 1,286.6 billion yuan respectively, with NON-GAAP net profits of 45.6 billion yuan, 50.6 billion yuan, and 55.6 billion yuan [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.56, 7.70, and 7.02 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Group [5][12][3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 260.4 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.1%. Retail revenue was 225 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, with active user numbers and daily active users (DAU) showing double-digit growth [1][6] - Non-GAAP net profit reached 13.2 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 5.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 5.2% to 5.8% [2][7] - The management indicated that the performance during the Double 11 shopping festival exceeded internal expectations, with both user numbers and purchase frequency achieving double-digit growth [1][6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1,135.6 billion yuan, 1,202.9 billion yuan, and 1,282.3 billion yuan, with slight adjustments of +0.1% for each year. Adjusted net profits are forecasted at 44.8 billion yuan, 50.1 billion yuan, and 55.4 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% [3][12] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 9x for 2024, with a target price range of 162-194 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 20%-44% from the current price [3][12] Shareholder Returns - In Q3 2024, the company repurchased 31 million shares for approximately 390 million USD, representing 1.1% of the shares outstanding as of June 30, 2024. A new buyback plan was approved in August 2024, allowing for the repurchase of up to 5 billion USD worth of shares by August 2027 [2][7]

2024 年 11 月 15 日 公司研究 毛利率持续提升，4Q 将继续受益于以旧换新 ——京东集团-SW（9618.HK）2024 年三季报点评 要点 公司 3Q2024 营收同比增长 5.12%，Non-GAAP 归母净利润同比增长 23.85% 公司公布 2024 年三季报：1-3Q2024 实现营业收入 8118.33 亿元，同比增长 4.27%，实现 GAAP 归母净利润 315.05 亿元，同比增长 51.63%，实现 Non-GAAP 口径下归母净利润 365.33 亿元，同比增长 36.39%。 单季度拆分来看，3Q2024 实现营业收入 2603.87 亿元，同比增长 5.12%，实 现 GAAP 归母净利润 117.31 亿元，同比增长 47.82%，实现 Non-GAAP 口径下 归母净利润 131.74 亿元，同比增长 23.85%。 公司 3Q2024 综合毛利率上升 1.65 个百分点，期间费用率上升 0.76 个百分点 1-3Q2024 公司综合毛利率为 16.11%，同比上升 1.18 个百分点。单季度拆分 来看，3Q2024 公司综合毛利率为 17.30%，同比上升 1.65 ...