Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set above the current price of 70.75 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 120%-125% year-on-year for Q3 2024, with mainland China revenue growing by 55%-60% and revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas regions soaring by 440%-445% [2][3]. - The company is expanding its retail presence, with 22 new stores opened in Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas by the end of September 2024, bringing the total to 114 stores [3]. - The company is diversifying its IP monetization channels and enhancing product interactivity, with new product lines and collaborations with various retail partners [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024-2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.5 billion HKD and 17.2 billion HKD, representing year-on-year growth of 98.4% and 37.4% respectively [5]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period is expected to be 3.14 billion HKD and 4.4 billion HKD, with growth rates of 163% and 40% [5]. Market Expansion - The company has accelerated its international market expansion, with notable growth in overseas revenue driven by strong demand and rapid store openings [3]. - The online channels in Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas are transitioning from broad strategies to more refined operations, leveraging membership systems and holiday promotions [3]. Product Development - The company continues to innovate its product offerings, launching new categories such as cards and building blocks, and enhancing the playability of its products [4]. - Collaborations with various retail outlets have been established to facilitate rapid distribution of products [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating on Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a 12-month price target of HK$70 00, implying a 10 3% upside from the current price of HK$63 45 [1][10] Core Views - Pop Mart reported **3Q24 revenue growth of 120%-125% YoY**, significantly exceeding the company's guidance of >62% YoY growth and showing acceleration from 1H24/2Q24 for both China and overseas markets [1] - **Mainland China sales grew by 55%-60% YoY**, outperforming prior estimates of 30% YoY growth, driven by strong performance in retail stores (30%-35% YoY) and e-commerce channels (135%-140% YoY) [1] - **Overseas sales surged by 440%-445% YoY**, well above the full-year target of >200% YoY, supported by strong store productivity and brand momentum [1][5] - The company's **overseas sales mix surpassed 45% in September**, up from 30% in 1H24, which is expected to further benefit gross profit margins (GPM) and operating leverage [1] - Pop Mart's **Labubu plush toy**, a star product, contributed 10% of sales in 1H24 with a 10x YoY increase, maintaining a price premium in the secondary market despite increased supply [1][8] Financial Performance and Forecasts - **2024E revenue** is revised up to RMB 11,890 7 million (12 8% increase from prior estimates), with **2026E revenue** projected at RMB 18,143 5 million (15 7% increase) [9] - **EBITDA for 2024E** is forecasted at RMB 4,340 1 million, with **2026E EBITDA** expected to reach RMB 6,591 6 million [1] - **EPS for 2024E** is revised up to RMB 1 92 (12 1% increase), with **2026E EPS** projected at RMB 2 86 [1][9] - The report applies a **25X P/E multiple** (up from 20X) to 2026E earnings, discounted back to 2025E with a 12% cost of equity (COE) [10] Operational Metrics - **Mainland China sales by channel**: Retail stores grew by 30%-35% YoY, Pop Draw by 55%-60% YoY, and e-commerce platforms by 135%-140% YoY, with notable acceleration from Tmall flagship store and TikTok [1][5] - **Overseas sales** accounted for 37 7% of total sales in 2024E, up from 35 0% in prior estimates, reflecting faster growth in international markets [9] - **Gross profit margin (GPM)** for overseas sales is expected to improve, reaching 70 9% in 2024E, up from 70 3% in prior estimates [9] Valuation and Market Sentiment - Pop Mart is currently trading at **24X 2025E P/E**, with the revised price target of HK$70 implying limited upside potential, justifying the Neutral rating [10] - The report highlights **strong IP momentum** and solid execution in category expansion as key drivers of Pop Mart's growth, particularly in overseas markets [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) [2][4] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue growth exceeded expectations, with overall revenue increasing by 120%-125% YoY [6] - Domestic online strategy adjustments have shown significant results, with key channels like Tmall and blind box machines experiencing accelerated growth [6] - The company's "IP X Category X Globalization" strategy continues to evolve, with strong performance from key IPs like Labubu and SkullPanda, and rapid expansion in overseas markets [6] Financial Performance and Projections - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: - Mainland China: +55%-60% YoY - Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas: +440%-445% YoY [6] - Key domestic channel growth in Q3 2024: - Retail stores: +30%-35% YoY - Robot stores: +20%-25% YoY - Blind box machines: +55%-60% YoY - E-commerce and other online platforms: +135%-140% YoY [6] - Financial projections for 2024-2026: - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 27.9/36.2/45.4 billion yuan - EPS: 2.07/2.70/3.38 yuan - PE ratio: 34/26/21x [2][6] IP and Product Performance - Labubu: - "ZIMOMO Big Angel" received over 170,000 reservations on JD - New "THE MONSTERS Building Blocks Series 2" recently launched [6] - SkullPanda: - First plush product "Soft and Tough" launched in October 2024, with an average resale price of nearly 2,800 yuan on secondary markets [6] - New IP "Starman": - First blind box series sold over 9,000 units on Tmall by October 25, 2024 [6] Global Expansion - Overseas store count reached 83 by H1 2024, with plans to add 30-40 new stores in H2 2024, focusing on North America and Southeast Asia [6] - The 100th overseas store opened in Jakarta, Indonesia on July 19, 2024, indicating accelerated global expansion [6] Valuation and Market Data - Current stock price: 70.75 HKD [4] - Market capitalization: 95,013.23 million HKD [4] - Historical stock price range: 78.00 HKD (high) / 16.90 HKD (low) over the past year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue for Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 120%-125%. Domestic revenue grew by 55%-60%, while revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets surged by 440%-445% [1]. - The domestic offline business showed steady growth, with retail store revenue increasing by 30%-35% and robot store revenue by 20%-25% in Q3 2024. Online sales through Douyin and Tmall also performed exceptionally well, with Douyin revenue up by 115%-120% and Tmall revenue up by 155%-160% [1]. - The company is expanding its overseas presence, opening multiple new stores in various countries, including Thailand, Italy, and Indonesia, with plans to add 30-40 more overseas stores in the second half of the year [1]. - The report projects revenue for 2024-2026 to reach 132.32 billion, 181.28 billion, and 219.93 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 27.54 billion, 38.22 billion, and 46.53 billion yuan [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 132.32 billion yuan, reflecting a 110% year-on-year growth. The net profit is projected at 27.54 billion yuan, a 154% increase [2][8]. - The adjusted EPS for 2024 is forecasted to be 2.05 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 34 times [2][8]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 66% by 2024, with a net margin of 20.81% [8]. Business Performance - The company has diversified its IP and product categories, enhancing channel differentiation and precision marketing, which has driven revenue growth across various domestic channels [1]. - The overseas e-commerce team is implementing tailored operational strategies for different countries and platforms, focusing on localized services and marketing [1].

泡泡玛特(09992) 公司研究/公司深度 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究 分析师： 黄骥 E-mail： huangji@yongxingsec.com SAC编号： S1760523090002 分析师： 李瑶芝 E-mail： liyaozhi@yongxingsec.com SAC编号： S1760524020001 公 司 深 度 买入(首次) 行业： 轻工制造 日期： yxzqdatemark 2024年10月24日 基本数据 10 月 22 日收盘价(港元) 63.45 12mthH 股价格区间(港元) 16.90-64.80 总股本(百万股) 1342.94 流通市值（亿港元） 852.10 最近一年股票与恒生指数比较 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/82024/9 泡泡玛特 恒生指数 资料来源：Wind，甬兴证券研究所 相关报告： 强 IP 运营能力，文化出海进行时 ——泡泡玛特首次覆盖报告 ◼ 核心观点 国内最大潮玩公司，建立了覆盖潮玩全 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) [3] Core Views - Pop Mart's overseas business has entered a rapid development phase with a focus on the DTC (Direct To Customer) model, achieving significant growth in overseas revenue [1] - The company's overseas revenue in H1 2024 increased by 259 6% YoY to RMB 1 351 billion, accounting for 29 7% of total revenue [1] - Southeast Asia is the fastest-growing market, with revenue increasing by 478 3% YoY to RMB 556 million in H1 2024 [1] Channels - Pop Mart has rapidly expanded its offline stores and robot stores overseas, with 92 stores and 162 robot stores as of June 2024 [1] - The company adopts a "platform + independent station" strategy for online channels, leveraging third-party platforms and building its own independent sites to strengthen brand influence [1] Operations - Pop Mart focuses on product customization and localized promotion, collaborating with international brands and local artists to enhance cultural integration [1] - The company actively operates on international social media platforms and collaborates with KOLs to promote its products [1] Supply Chain - Pop Mart has established overseas bonded warehouses in Southeast Asia and North America, supporting its global supply chain system [1] - The company has achieved a stable inventory level of around RMB 900 million in H1 2024, despite high overseas sales growth [1] Market Potential - The global toy market is expanding, with the Southeast Asian market showing strong growth potential due to its young population and cultural similarities with China [1] - Pop Mart's focus on Southeast Asia is expected to drive long-term growth, leveraging the region's market potential and demographic dividend [1] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with overseas revenue projected to reach RMB 5 149 billion in 2024, representing a 383% YoY increase [1] - Pop Mart's net profit is forecasted to grow by 117 5% YoY in 2024, reaching RMB 2 354 billion [1] Valuation - The report estimates Pop Mart's target market value at RMB 90 5 billion for 2025, corresponding to a 30x PE ratio, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) with a target price of HKD 88 10 [1] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue exceeded market expectations with a year-on-year growth of 120%-125% Domestic revenue grew by 55%-60% while overseas revenue surged by 440%-445% [1] - The company's overseas expansion is accelerating with new stores opened in key markets such as South Korea Italy the Netherlands France and the US contributing to revenue growth [1] - Pop Mart's core IPs like MOLLY SKULLPANDA DIMOO and The MONSTERS continue to drive product innovation and sales growth [1] - The company's online revenue particularly through platforms like TikTok Shop and Tmall has shown significant growth with TikTok Shop achieving a record single-session sales of USD 280 000 [1] Financial Performance - Pop Mart's total revenue for 2024E is projected to be RMB 12 253 million a 93 1% increase from 2023A [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 2 711 million in 2024E up 150 5% from 2023A [2] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve to 66 3% in 2024E from 61 3% in 2023A [6] - EPS is projected to increase from RMB 0 80 in 2023A to RMB 2 02 in 2024E [2] Market Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas revenue growth is driven by both store expansion and improved store efficiency with the number of overseas stores expected to reach 130-140 by the end of 2024 [1] - The company's strategy of localizing products and adopting a direct-to-consumer (DTC) model has been effective in penetrating international markets [1] Product and IP Strategy - Pop Mart continues to innovate with new IPs such as OIPIPPI Nyota CHAKA inosoul and POLAR which have contributed to revenue growth [1] - The company is expanding its product categories including building blocks and exploring new business areas like theme parks and games to enhance the value of its core IPs [1] Valuation and Projections - The report forecasts Pop Mart's net profit for 2024-2026 to be RMB 2 711 million RMB 3 601 million and RMB 4 458 million respectively [1] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 34 5x in 2024E to 21 0x in 2026E reflecting strong earnings growth [2] Key Financial Metrics - Pop Mart's total assets are projected to grow from RMB 9 969 million in 2023A to RMB 23 348 million in 2026E [6] - The company's operating cash flow is expected to increase significantly from RMB 1 991 million in 2024E to RMB 3 644 million in 2026E [6] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 14 7% in 2023A to 29 7% in 2024E indicating improved profitability [6]

[Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$75.20 目标价 HK$80.90 HTI ESG 4.0-3.5-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 51.3% 87.1% 238.0% 绝对值（美元） 51.7% 87.9% 240.3% 相对 MSCI China 34.7% 68.1% 215.7% [Table_Profit] Rmb mn Dec-23A Dec-24E Dec-25E Dec-26E Revenue 6,301 12,420 16,206 19,966 Revenue (+/-) 36% 97% 30% 23% Net profit 1,191 2,851 3,879 4,951 Net profit (+/-) 108% 139% 36% 28% Diluted EPS (Rmb) 0.89 2.14 2.91 3.72 GPM 61.3% 65.1% 66.2% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in both overseas and online channels [1] - Revenue in Q3 2024 increased by 120%-125% YoY, with mainland China revenue growing by 55%-60% and overseas revenue (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) surging by 440%-445% [2] - The company's overseas expansion and online sales growth are key drivers of its performance [3][4] Mainland China Performance - Retail stores and robot stores in mainland China showed steady growth, with Q3 revenue increasing by 55%-60% YoY [3] - As of October 21, 2024, the company operated 423 stores (including Nanjing Golden Eagle) and 2,224 robot stores in mainland China [3] - Wholesale channels in mainland China grew by 45%-50% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] Online Performance - Online revenue growth accelerated significantly in Q3 2024, with WeChat抽盒机 revenue increasing by 55%-60% YoY and e-commerce platforms growing by 135%-140% YoY [3] - Tmall flagship store revenue surged by 155%-160% YoY, while Douyin flagship store revenue grew by 115%-120% YoY [3] - Douyin's core accounts generated a total GMV of RMB 215 million in Q3 2024, with a 56% MoM increase in September due to a promotional event [3] Overseas Expansion - Overseas revenue (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) grew by 440%-445% YoY in Q3 2024, with full-year growth expected to exceed 300% [4] - The company expanded its overseas presence, opening 112 stores by October 21, 2024, including new theme stores in South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan [4] - TikTok live streaming performed well, with cumulative GMV reaching approximately RMB 220 million, including RMB 90 million from the US and RMB 130 million from Thailand [5] New IP and Product Expansion - The company continued to expand its IP portfolio, launching 6 new IPs in 2024 and introducing 79 new blind box products in Q1-Q3 2024 [6] - New product lines, including labubu forest secret base building blocks and SP plush toys, were launched, with strong market performance [6] - The company diversified into new categories such as desserts, apparel, and accessories, with plans to open independent accessory stores in 2024 [6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 12.07 billion, RMB 15.61 billion, and RMB 18.34 billion, respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 2.55 billion, RMB 3.34 billion, and RMB 4.01 billion for 2024-2026 [6] - Adjusted PE ratios for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 33X, 25X, and 21X, respectively [6] Valuation Metrics - The company's current price is HKD 75.20, with a 52-week range of HKD 16.90-76.70 [3] - Total market capitalization is HKD 100.99 billion, with a fully diluted market cap of HKD 100.99 billion [3] - Key valuation metrics include a P/E of 36.3X for 2024E, P/B of 9.3X, and P/S of 7.6X [7][9]

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 22 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 63.45 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7363 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 64.80/16.90 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 852.10 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,342.94 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0916 | 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 联系人 任梦妮 (8621)23297818× renmn@swsresearch.com 轻工制造 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： ...