Macro Research - The report highlights a "double hit" moment for US dollar assets due to Trump's comments on Greenland and tariff threats, alongside the early dissolution of the Japanese House of Representatives leading to a sell-off in Japanese bonds [3][4][22] - The US dollar's credit breakdown is re-emerging, with significant impacts on US stocks, bonds, and currencies, resulting in a strong performance of safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while cryptocurrencies face pressure [3][4][22] Strategy Research - In Q4 2025, active funds significantly reduced their holdings in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on increasing allocations to cyclical and financial value stocks, while reducing exposure to technology and healthcare sectors [7][26] - The report indicates a clear rotation in fund styles, with a notable shift towards large-cap cyclical and financial stocks, while growth and consumer sectors saw reductions in allocations [26][27] Fixed Income Research - The appreciation of the RMB and increased foreign exchange settlements may tighten interbank liquidity, depending on whether the central bank will actively increase the supply of base currency [11][14] Industry Research: Photovoltaic Equipment - The report anticipates a new cycle for the photovoltaic equipment industry driven by SpaceX and Tesla's plans to deploy a combined 200GW of solar capacity, with key equipment manufacturers expected to benefit [15][16] - The demand for solar expansion is expected to rise due to the increasing need for low-orbit satellites and the commercialization of space computing, which will drive the demand for core equipment [15][16] Fund Allocation Insights - The report notes a significant increase in allocations to cyclical and financial sectors, particularly in upstream industries like metals and chemicals, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions [27][28] - The technology sector shows a marked divergence, with communication equipment receiving substantial increases due to AI infrastructure investments, while many tech segments faced reductions [27][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The banking sector continues to adjust, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, primarily due to significant net outflows from broad-based ETF index funds [2][6] - Despite the short-term pressures, the fundamental outlook for quality bank stocks is stable, and their valuations are considered oversold, indicating a potential buying opportunity [6][20] - Recommended banks include quality city commercial banks in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong regions, such as Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking index fell by 2.7%, with excess returns of -2.0% and -2.3% compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices respectively [6][20] - Significant net outflows from the CSI 300 and SSE 50 ETFs amounted to 238 billion and 36.1 billion respectively, indicating a worsening trend in fund outflows [6][20] Individual Bank Performance - Some smaller banks, like Qingdao Bank, showed positive performance due to favorable fundamental expectations, while larger state-owned banks lagged [2][6] - Eight banks reported Q4 earnings, with most showing revenue growth exceeding expectations, driven by stabilized net interest margins and increased interest income [8] Market Trends - There is a growing interest in the recovery potential of oversold bank stocks, as evidenced by a slight net inflow into bank-related index funds after a period of outflows [26] - The average turnover rate for bank stocks has increased, but the transaction volume share for various bank types, excluding joint-stock banks, has decreased [45][49] Convertible Bonds - The space for strong redemption of convertible bonds in the banking sector has expanded, with current stock prices approaching redemption thresholds [43] - Notable banks for potential convertible bond trading opportunities include Changshu Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Chongqing Bank, which have stable performance expectations [43]

格隆汇1月26日｜国信证券研报指出，杭州银行25年净利润实现延续两位数高增。实现归母净利润 190.30亿元，同比增长12.1%，较前三季度增速回落2.5个百分点。净利息收入增速亮眼，其他非息收入 下降拖累营收。信贷延续高增，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"；资产质量优质，拨备覆盖率502%。公司 高成长性延续，贷款延续两位数增长，净利息收入和手续费收入增长提升。考虑到2026年LPR大概率仍 有所下降，调降2026-2027年归母净利润至213/241亿元（原预测233/273亿元），对应同比增速为 12.0%/13.2%。当前股价对应2026-2027年PB值0.79x/0.70x，维持"优于大市"评级。 ...

在业绩增长的背后，负债端成本优化与中间业务收入提升成为关键支撑。 以宁波银行为例，其通过精细化存款管理与结构优化，2025年存款平均付息率较上年下降33个基点，显 著缓解了息差压力。与此同时，宁波银行的手续费及佣金收入同比增长30.72%，成为拉动营收的重要 引擎，反映出银行在财富管理、投资银行等轻资本业务上的拓展成效。 2025年，上市银行资产规模保持稳健增长。招商银行总资产突破13万亿元关口，多家中小银行资产增速 超过11%，规模扩张为业绩增长奠定了基础。 在资产投放上，银行普遍聚焦国家战略与实体经济薄弱环节。科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融**成为信 贷重点投向，信贷结构进一步优化，服务实体经济质效不断提升。 财韵洞察网||截至2025年1月25日，已有招商银行、中信银行、浦发银行、杭州银行、宁波银行等8家A 股上市银行披露2025年度业绩快报，呈现出一幅整体稳健向好、结构亮点突出的年度答卷。 数据显示，这8家银行全部实现归母净利润同比正增长，其中7家同时实现营业收入与净利润"双增"，城 商行与部分股份制银行业绩增速相对领先。 从已披露的业绩快报看，2025年上市银行盈利回暖态势明显。全部8家银行的归母净利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its dividend value and low valuation as attractive for long-term investors [5][10]. Core Insights - A package of fiscal and financial policies has been introduced to support the banking sector, particularly in optimizing loan structures and stabilizing interest margins [7][8]. - The banking sector has experienced a decline of 7.44% year-to-date, underperforming the broader market, primarily due to passive fund outflows [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for credit growth and structural optimization in the banking sector, driven by government policies aimed at supporting small and medium enterprises [8][9]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The report discusses the implementation of six fiscal and financial policies aimed at enhancing credit support for small and medium enterprises, including a 1.5% interest subsidy on loans [7][8]. - These policies are expected to lower overall financing costs and stimulate demand, thereby benefiting the banking sector [8]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector index fell by 2.70% during the week, while the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 0.62% [18]. - State-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks saw declines of 4.36%, 3.08%, 0.43%, and 0.70%, respectively [18]. Valuation and Company Performance - As of January 23, 2026, the banking sector's price-to-book ratio stands at 0.64, indicating a 32.99% discount compared to the overall A-share market [35]. - The sector's dividend yield is reported at 4.92%, which is higher than the average for all A-shares, ranking second among industries [35]. - Eight listed banks have reported stable earnings recovery for 2025, with most showing growth in total assets compared to 2024 [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities and banking sectors, while also recommending the insurance sector [8]. Core Insights - The market remains active with an average daily trading volume of 28 trillion yuan in A-shares, and the financing balance stabilizing at 2.7 trillion yuan. However, the ETF market has experienced significant volatility, with major outflows from core broad-based ETFs [11][16]. - The sentiment for market bullishness is strong, and the spring rally is expected to continue, particularly in the insurance sector where beta trading opportunities are anticipated [2][26]. - The central bank's governor indicated that there is still room for interest rate cuts, with the latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remaining unchanged for eight consecutive months [11][32]. Securities Sector Summary - The report highlights a positive outlook for the securities sector, with several brokerages reporting significant profit growth for 2025. The recommendation includes top brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities [2][12]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market is noted at 28 trillion yuan, with a stable financing balance, indicating a recovery opportunity for the brokerage sector [11][12]. Insurance Sector Summary - The report suggests focusing on quality leading companies in the insurance sector, as the market sentiment remains strong and the spring rally is expected to continue [26][27]. - The insurance sector's fund holdings have increased, with major stocks like Ping An and China Life being highlighted for their significant market presence [27][31]. Banking Sector Summary - The banking sector is characterized by stable performance, with several banks reporting positive earnings forecasts for 2025. The report recommends quality individual stocks such as Nanjing Bank and Chengdu Bank [3][40]. - The central bank's comments on potential interest rate cuts and the expansion of wealth management products indicate a favorable environment for banks [32][33]. - The report notes a decline in bond allocations within bank wealth management products, with an increase in deposits and funds [37][34].

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Core Viewpoint - The first batch of eight listed banks in China has reported their 2025 performance, showing overall positive growth in net profit and revenue, with a focus on optimizing business structures and enhancing risk management for 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - All eight listed banks reported a year-on-year increase in net profit, with seven achieving both revenue and net profit growth [2] - Hangzhou Bank led with a 12.05% increase in net profit, while Ningbo Bank and Nanjing Bank reported growths of 8.13% and 8.08% respectively [2] - Among joint-stock banks, Pudong Development Bank saw a notable 10.52% increase in net profit, while CITIC Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank reported growths of 2.98%, 1.21%, and 0.34% respectively [2] - Seven banks achieved revenue growth, with only CITIC Bank experiencing a slight decline of 0.55% [2] - Ningbo Bank's revenue grew by 8.01% to 71.968 billion yuan, driven by a 30.72% increase in net income from fees and commissions [2] Group 2: Asset Expansion - Total assets of several banks have expanded significantly, with China Merchants Bank surpassing 13 trillion yuan and Industrial Bank reaching 11 trillion yuan [3] - Smaller banks like Nanjing Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Hangzhou Bank saw asset growth rates of 16.63%, 16.11%, and 11.96% respectively, focusing on technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance [3] Group 3: Asset Quality - The asset quality indicators remain stable, with a decrease in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for four banks and three remaining stable [4] - Pudong Development Bank reported a significant decrease in NPL ratio by 10 basis points to 1.26%, while CITIC Bank and China Merchants Bank saw declines of 1 basis point to 1.15% and 0.94% respectively [4] - The overall provision coverage ratio has slightly decreased but remains at a high level, with several banks maintaining coverage ratios above 300% [4] Group 4: Future Strategies - Many banks have outlined their 2026 operational focuses, emphasizing business structure optimization, expanding fee income sources, and strengthening risk management [5][6] - Bank of Beijing has set ten key initiatives for 2026, aiming for qualitative and quantitative growth through deepening specific banking services and ensuring compliance [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, particularly highlighting the potential of specific banks such as China Merchants Bank [1][5]. Core Insights - The banking sector is experiencing a significant expansion in wealth management, with the total scale reaching 33.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a growth of 3.34 trillion yuan and an annual growth rate of 11.2% [3][12]. - The report indicates a strategic shift towards increasing allocations in deposits and public funds while slightly reducing allocations in certificates of deposit and equity assets [4][5]. - The average yield of wealth management products is reported at 1.98%, with a total of 730.3 billion yuan generated for investors in 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The A-share market saw an increase of 1.81% this week, while the banking sector declined by 2.70% [15]. - The People's Bank of China maintained the loan market quotation rate (LPR) at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years and above [1][12]. Wealth Management Trends - By the end of 2025, the wealth management scale is projected to reach 33.3 trillion yuan, with various product categories showing different growth patterns [3][4]. - Cash management products have seen a decline, with a total decrease of 0.26 trillion yuan in 2025, although there was a recovery in the second half of the year [3]. Asset Allocation - As of the end of 2025, the investment assets of wealth management products totaled 35.66 trillion yuan, with bonds, deposits, and public funds making up the majority of the allocations [4]. - The report notes a significant increase in allocations to deposits (2.38 trillion yuan) and public funds (0.89 trillion yuan) [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the wealth management scale will continue to grow rapidly in 2026, with a neutral expectation of an increase of approximately 3 trillion yuan [5].

2026 年 1 月 25 日 公司研究 贷款增速稳中有进，五年规划圆满收官 010-57378035 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 dongwx@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 72.49 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 1,107.65 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 13.04/17.14 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 64.99% | 股价相对走势 资料来源：Wind ——杭州银行（600926.SH）2025 年业绩快报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：15.28 元 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：董文欣 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -1.74 | -4.83 | -14.23 | | 绝对 | -0.26 | -3.93 | 9.40 | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | 要点 事件： 1 月 23 日，杭州 ...