Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Hong Kong/China Transportation and Infrastructure - **2026 Outlook**: More opportunities than risks, with a focus on supply-side opportunities in airlines, tanker shipping, and express delivery, while container shipping faces oversupply concerns [1][2][3] Airlines - **Pricing Trends**: Pricing inflation resumed since October 2025, supported by supply-side constraints and demand recovery from business travel, outbound travel growth, and inbound travel [2][11] - **Demand Drivers**: Business travel recovery positively correlated with capital expenditure, and inbound travel expected to grow, benefiting airlines [2][21] - **Airlines' Up-Cycle**: Chinese airlines are in a multi-year supply-driven up-cycle, with margin upside if pricing performance exceeds expectations [2][11] - **Key Stocks**: Overweight ratings on Air China (0753.HK), China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK), China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), and Spring Airlines (601021.SS) [9][10] Shipping - **Tanker Market**: Increasing demand for compliant tankers due to geopolitical tensions, with limited new supply additions due to low capital expenditure over the past decade [3] - **Container Shipping Risks**: Remains conservative on container shipping due to oversupply concerns [3] - **Key Stocks**: Overweight on COSCO Shipping (1138.HK) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SS), underweight on COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919.HK) and Orient Overseas (0316.HK) [3] Airports - **Bargaining Power**: Airports are regaining bargaining power through duty-free contract renewals, breaking monopoly dynamics, and increasing shareholdings in duty-free operators [4][54] - **Duty-Free Spending**: Expected upside in duty-free spending with expanded product categories and higher offline sales [4][58] - **Key Stocks**: Equal-weight ratings on Shanghai International Airport (600009.SS), Hainan Meilan Airport (0357.HK), and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004.SS), underweight on Beijing Capital International Airport (0694.HK) [53] Express Delivery - **Market Consolidation**: ZTO (ZTO.N) and YTO (600233.SS) are consolidating market share, leading to cost-efficiency gains and margin expansion [5] - **International Expansion**: J&T (1519.HK) expected to consolidate market share in overseas markets through e-commerce partnerships [5] Key Risks and Considerations - **Airlines**: Risks include faster-than-expected aircraft delivery, deterioration in travel demand, unfavorable RMB depreciation, and surging oil prices [52][51] - **Airports**: Continued underperformance in duty-free business due to weak consumption and competition from other channels [54][55] Conclusion - The transportation sector in Hong Kong/China is poised for growth in 2026, driven by supply-side opportunities in airlines and shipping, while airports are regaining power in duty-free operations. However, risks remain, particularly in container shipping and overall economic conditions.

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a slight increase of 0.23% on January 12, with CITIC Offshore Helicopter leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - CITIC Offshore Helicopter (000099) closed at 22.36, up 4.24% with a trading volume of 401,400 shares and a transaction value of 886 million yuan [1]. - Xiamen Airport (600897) closed at 17.47, up 1.22% with a trading volume of 82,500 shares and a transaction value of 143 million yuan [1]. - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 6.00, up 0.33% with a trading volume of 1,101,000 shares [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 18.41 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 25.28 million yuan [2]. - Major stocks like Hainan Airlines (600221) experienced a net inflow of 77.03 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 49.07 million yuan from retail investors [3]. - Xiamen Airport (600897) had a net outflow of 9.17 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 469,890 yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a recovery in oil transportation due to improved demand post-holidays and geopolitical tensions [6][16] - The aviation industry aims to achieve a passenger volume of 810 million in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [23][24] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in competition and profitability, with a focus on major players like SF Express [20] Shipping - The oil shipping sector is rebounding due to increased cargo availability from the Middle East and geopolitical sanctions affecting supply [6][16] - Container shipping rates are showing slight increases, with strong pricing power among shipowners before long-term contract negotiations [11][12] - Key stocks to watch include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, and Pacific Shipping [16] Infrastructure - Weekly data indicates a decline in truck traffic and rail freight, with road truck traffic at 46.964 million vehicles, down 14.9% week-on-week [17][18] - Port throughput for the first week of 2026 was 25.4953 million tons, showing a slight decrease but a year-on-year increase of 7.7% in container throughput [18] - Recommended stock for infrastructure investment is Anhui Expressway [18] Express Delivery - In November 2025, express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while revenue decreased by 3.7% [19][20] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express anticipated to see profit growth in 2026 [20] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express [20] Aviation - The aviation sector is entering a critical period with the Spring Festival approaching, and passenger volume is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2026 [23][24] - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume of 1.5% and a decrease in ticket prices [21][24] - Recommended stocks include Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [24] Logistics - The cross-border air freight price index has decreased by 19.9% week-on-week, indicating a significant drop in logistics costs [25]

Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines has approved the sale of approximately 1.61% of its stake in Cathay Pacific Airways, reflecting financial pressure and a strategy to optimize its balance sheet [1][2] Group 1: Financial Transactions - The company plans to sell 1.08 million shares of Cathay Pacific at a price of HKD 12.22 per share, expecting a pre-tax profit of approximately RMB 182 million from this transaction [1] - In addition to the stake sale, the company announced a plan to raise up to RMB 20 billion through a private placement of A-shares to repay debts and supplement working capital [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - As of September 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio reached 87.88%, with total liabilities amounting to RMB 307 billion, one of the highest levels in the aviation industry [1][2] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.676 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.31%, marking the only decline among the three major state-owned airlines [2] - The company's unit revenue per passenger kilometer decreased by 2.6% to RMB 0.61, indicating increased competition and challenges in profitability [2] Group 3: Industry Context - Despite the overall recovery in the aviation industry, where the three major airlines collectively reported a net profit exceeding RMB 6.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, China National Airlines' performance stands out negatively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant outflow of main capital from various stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with 387 stocks experiencing net outflows for five consecutive days or more, indicating potential investment risks in these companies [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Main Capital Outflow Statistics - The stock with the longest continuous net outflow is Dameng Data, with 23 days of outflows [1]. - Daqin Railway follows with 20 days of net outflows, totaling 2.711 billion yuan [1]. - The total net outflow for Daqin Railway over 20 days is the highest at 2.711 billion yuan, while Xiechuang Data has a net outflow of 1.914 billion yuan over five days [1][2]. Group 2: Stocks with Significant Outflows - The top stocks by net outflow duration include: - Daqin Railway: 20 days, 2.711 billion yuan, 18.68% of trading volume, -6.22% cumulative change [1]. - Dameng Data: 23 days, 0.503 billion yuan, 7.58% of trading volume, 14.15% cumulative change [2]. - Haima Automobile: 12 days, 1.626 billion yuan, 8.26% of trading volume, -18.59% cumulative change [1]. Group 3: Other Notable Stocks - Other stocks with notable outflows include: - Wuzhou Xinchun: 5 days, 1.574 billion yuan, 5.24% of trading volume, 11.62% cumulative change [1]. - Dongshan Precision: 6 days, 1.512 billion yuan, 6.91% of trading volume, -6.80% cumulative change [1]. - Shengtai Electronics: 10 days, 1.377 billion yuan, 8.47% of trading volume, -8.71% cumulative change [1].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a decline of 1.19% on January 9, with China Eastern Airlines leading the drop, while the overall Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.92% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 408 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 377 million yuan [2] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.98, down 3.24%, with a trading volume of 1.3034 million shares and a transaction value of 778 million yuan [2] - Other notable declines included Spring Airlines (601021) down 1.87% and China National Airlines (601111) down 1.64% [2] - The highest trading volume was recorded for Hainan Airlines (600221) with 4.4577 million shares traded, despite a decline of 10.85% in net inflow from major funds [3] Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - Major funds showed significant outflows in several stocks, including Hainan Airlines with a net outflow of 83.62 million yuan, and Spring Airlines with a net outflow of 28.47 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed a positive net inflow in several stocks, with Hainan Airlines seeing a retail net inflow of 64.82 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The aviation stocks collectively declined, with Eastern Airlines down 3.98% at HKD 5.31, Southern Airlines down 3.63% at HKD 5.84, Air China down 2.06% at HKD 7.14, and Cathay Pacific down 2.04% at HKD 12.47 [1] - Following the New Year, domestic air ticket prices have significantly dropped, with some tickets available for as low as 10% of their original price, leading to consumers opting for off-peak travel [1] - A third-party ticketing platform reported that flights from Guangzhou to various cities are priced as low as RMB 210 (excluding tax), equivalent to a 1.1% discount [1] Group 2 - On Thursday, Brent crude oil futures surged by 5%, reaching a nearly two-week high, closing at USD 61.99 per barrel, an increase of USD 2.03 or 3.4% from the previous trading day [1] - According to Huachuang Securities, a 10% change in oil prices corresponds to an annual cost impact of approximately RMB 4.3 to 5.1 billion for the three major airlines, while a 1% fluctuation in exchange rates affects them by RMB 130 to 260 million [1]

1月9日上午，中国航空集团有限公司召开领导班子（扩大）会议。受中央组织部领导委托，中央组织部有关干部局负责同志宣布了党中央关于中国航空集 团有限公司总经理调整的决定：曲光吉同志任中国航空集团有限公司董事、总经理、党组副书记，免去其中国南方航空集团有限公司副总经理、党组成员 职务；免去王明远同志的中国航空集团有限公司董事、总经理、党组副书记职务。相关职务任免，按有关法律和章程的规定办理。 公开信息显示，曲光吉出生于1970年2月，西安统计学院经济统计系统计学专业毕业，大学学历，在职取得东北财经大学经济学硕士、清华大学与法国国 立路桥和法国国立民用航空学校高级管理人员工商管理硕士学位，经济师，中共党员；1993年7月参加工作。 【导读】曲光吉任中国航空集团有限公司董事、总经理、党组副书记 中国基金报记者晨曦 曲光吉，履新！ 1月9日，中国航空集团有限公司官网显示，中国航空集团有限公司董事、总经理、党组副书记调整。 资料显示，王明远出生于1966年9月，已届退休年龄。目前，王明远在A股上市公司中国国航担任副董事长、执行董事、总裁职务。 据介绍，中国航空集团有限公司（中航集团）成立于2002年10月11日，是特大型国 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the appointment of Qu Guangji as the new General Manager and Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee of AVIC Group, following the retirement of the previous General Manager Wang Mingyuan [1][15][17] - Qu Guangji is a 70s generation cadre who has risen through the ranks of China Southern Airlines and joined the leadership team of China Southern Airlines Group in 2023 [20] - The article highlights the frequent personnel adjustments in the civil aviation sector over the past two years, with several key positions being changed, including the General Managers of Air China and China Eastern Airlines, both of whom previously came from China Southern Airlines [21][8] Group 2 - The current leadership teams of the three major airlines are as follows: Air China Chairman Liu Tiexiang and General Manager Qu Guangji; China Eastern Airlines Chairman Wang Zhiqing and General Manager Gao Fei; China Southern Airlines Chairman Ma Xulun and General Manager Han Wensheng [24] - The article provides salary information for the leaders of central enterprises, noting that in 2022, the salary for the Chairman of China Southern Airlines was 666,300, while in 2023, it increased to 823,500 [25]

Group 1: Shipping and Port Development - In early January, Nanchong Port experienced a logistics peak with 17 vessels arriving, and a total of 20 vessels expected within the week [5] - The "Smooth One River" shipping revitalization initiative in Sichuan aims for double-digit growth in port and container throughput by 2025, significantly reducing logistics costs by approximately 2 billion yuan [5] - During the New Year period, major ports in Sichuan achieved a total cargo throughput of 35,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 203.89%, and a container throughput of 1,810 TEUs, up 100.22% [5] - The development of intermodal transport is strong, with a 236.36% increase in container volume through rail-water intermodal transport [5] Group 2: Port Operations and Strategies - Other major ports, including Luzhou and Yibin, are also experiencing growth through differentiated development strategies [6] - Luzhou Port has increased its scheduled shipping routes by 33.33%, while Yibin Port has implemented seamless operations for steel unloading and loading [6] - Guang'an Port is working towards completing its first multi-modal transport business by the end of 2025, while Leshan Port has efficiently completed multiple heavy equipment loading tasks [6] - Sichuan plans to enhance transport quality and efficiency by developing multi-modal transport systems and optimizing port functions [6] Group 3: Air Travel Expansion - Chengdu's air travel network is expanding with new domestic and international routes being added to accommodate the upcoming Spring Festival [7][8] - China Eastern Airlines has introduced new routes from Chengdu to various domestic cities, while Sichuan Airlines has launched new routes to Beihai and other destinations [7] - China Southern Airlines is increasing flights to regional airports and introducing new international routes, including to Bangkok and Brussels [8] - Ticket prices for direct flights from Chengdu to various domestic locations have significantly decreased, encouraging travel during the upcoming holiday season [8]