Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Hikvision [4][7]. Core Insights - The report addresses three key questions: 1) How to confirm the current safety margin as shareholder returns increase despite slowing growth; 2) Whether the new growth curves of smart IoT and scenario digitization have sufficient growth space and competitiveness; 3) The elasticity of performance and valuation in the new growth phase [11]. - The company has maintained a high level of shareholder returns, with cumulative cash dividends of approximately 58.4 billion since its IPO in 2010, and a recent dividend payout ratio reaching 60% [4][12]. - The digital business's competitiveness stems from scale effects, with over 500 solutions and high-frequency reuse of software and hardware, allowing the company to meet fragmented demands more efficiently [4][19]. - Historical valuation analysis shows that the company's bottom PE typically hovers around 20x, currently at historical lows, indicating potential for significant valuation recovery [4][7]. Financial Perspective - The company has a stable and abundant free cash flow, with a free cash flow to net profit ratio averaging around 64% over the past decade [13][15]. - The company’s cash reserves are substantial, with 49.6 billion in cash at the end of 2023, sufficient to cover current liabilities [14][15]. - Future dividend rates are expected to maintain at least 60%, with potential for increases based on various scenarios of free cash flow [15][16]. Business Perspective - The market for digital transformation is projected to grow significantly, with an expected expenditure of 428 billion USD in 2024, representing a tenfold growth opportunity compared to the narrow security market [19][20]. - The company has established a clear evolution path for its smart IoT business, enhancing customer value through advanced hardware and software capabilities [20][21]. - The company has accumulated extensive practical experience across various industries, enabling it to meet diverse and fragmented digital transformation demands [23][24]. Valuation Discussion - The report utilizes a PE valuation method, comparing Hikvision with domestic and global digitalization companies, projecting a target market value of 350 billion based on a 20x PE for 2025 [4][7]. - The company’s historical valuation trends indicate potential for significant upward movement in PE ratios, particularly if macroeconomic conditions improve [4][7][8].

证券代码：002415 证券简称：海康威视 公告编号：2024-050 号 杭州海康威视数字技术股份有限公司 关于为子公司提供担保的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 公司及控股子公司不存在其他对外担保事项，不存在逾期对外担保、涉及诉 讼的对外担保及因担保被判决败诉而应承担损失的情形。 特此公告。 杭州海康威视数字技术股份有限公司 一、担保情况概述 杭州海康威视数字技术股份有限公司（以下简称"海康威视"或"公司"） 于 2024 年 4 月 18 日召开第五届董事会第二十次会议，审议通过了《关于为子公 司提供担保的议案》，同意公司及控股子公司为其下属全资或控股子公司提供不 超过 166.75 亿元人民币的担保额度。上述事项于 2024 年 5 月 10 日经公司 2023 年年度股东大会审议通过。具体内容详见公司 2024 年 4 月 20 日刊载于《证券时 报》《中国证券报》《上海证券报》和巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）的《关于 为子公司提供担保的公告》（公告编号：2024-016 号）。 二、担保进展情况 2024 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (First Rating) [1] Core Views - The company is a global AIoT leader, transitioning from a traditional security provider to a digital solutions provider with a diversified product matrix of 30,000+ hardware SKUs and 200+ software products [1] - The company's growth is driven by innovation, overseas expansion, and enterprise digital transformation, with PBG (Public Business Group) expected to stabilize in 2024 [1] - The company's software and AI contribute significantly to its gross margin, with the AI Guanlan model enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [1] Business Overview Business Structure - The company operates five major business groups: PBG, EBG, SMBG, Innovation Business, and Overseas Business [1] - PBG focuses on public security and urban governance, with a shift from traditional security to digital city management [1][44] - EBG targets enterprise digital transformation, leveraging AI and SaaS platforms like Yunmou to enhance manufacturing and supply chain efficiency [1][47] - SMBG serves small and medium-sized businesses with fragmented needs, transitioning from traditional distribution to solution-based models [1][60] - Innovation Business includes subsidiaries in smart home, machine vision, and automotive electronics, contributing significantly to growth [1][29] - Overseas Business adopts a localized strategy, with breakthroughs in new product categories and increased penetration in emerging markets [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 97.49 billion RMB in 2024 to 124.56 billion RMB in 2026, with net profit increasing from 14.36 billion RMB to 21.58 billion RMB [2] - The company's gross margin reached 44.4% in 2023, with a net profit margin of 15.8% [28] - R&D expenses accounted for 12.8% of revenue in 2023, with cumulative R&D investment reaching 56.9 billion RMB since 2006 [17] Innovation and AI - The company's AI Guanlan model reduces training data requirements by 90% while improving recognition accuracy by 18-63% [1] - AI and software contribute significantly to the company's gross margin, with software revenue accounting for 21.3% of total revenue in 2023 [1] - The company's AI open platform has trained over 50,000 algorithms and deployed 4,000 projects, serving more than 15,000 users [23] Market Position - The company is transitioning from a traditional security provider to a global AIoT leader, with innovation and overseas business driving growth [1][10] - The company's PBG business, once dominant, now accounts for only 17.2% of total revenue, reflecting a shift towards enterprise and innovation-driven growth [10][44] Valuation and Target Price - The company is valued at 20x PE for 2025, with a target price of 38.74 RMB per share [2] - The current market price is 26.20 RMB, indicating significant upside potential [2]

营收稳健增长，强化创新研发投入 2024 年 08 月 22 日 ➢ 事件：2024 年 8 月 16 日，海康威视发布 2024 年中报，2024H1 公司实现 营业总收入 412.09 亿元，同比增长 9.68%；实现归母净利润 50.64 亿元，同比 下滑 5.13%；实现扣非归母净利润 52.43 亿元，同比增长 4.11%。 ➢ 分业务来看，EBG、境外业务和创新业务维持增势。 ➢ 1）PBG 业务：2024H1实现营收56.93亿元，同比下滑9.25%，占比13.81%； ➢ 2）EBG 业务：2024H1 实现营收 74.89 亿元，同比增长 7.05%，占比 18.17%， 公司持续深化流程变革管理，不断促进组织架构的协同与整合，激发团队的创新 潜力，确保组织活力与效率的持续提升； ➢ 3）SMBG：2024H1 实现营收 57.89 亿元，同比增长 0.64%，占比 14.05%， 公司不断加强合规体系的构建与完善，确保风险的有效控制，夯实合规经营的制 度保障，为公司稳定发展筑牢基础； ➢ 4）境外业务：2024H1 实现营收 114.41 亿元，同比增长 15.46%，占比 27.76%， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's overall performance shows steady growth, with revenue for the first half of 2024 reaching 41.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5% to 5.06 billion yuan [3] - Traditional business faces short-term pressure, while AI-enabled digital transformation is expected to provide long-term growth momentum [4] - Innovative businesses, particularly in automotive electronics, robotics, and thermal imaging, are leading the way, contributing to a new growth engine with a revenue increase of 26.13% year-on-year [4] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 14.9 billion, 17.3 billion, and 19.2 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 14, and 13 times [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) for 2022A was 83,166, 2023A was 89,340, and projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 98,238, 110,794, and 123,794 respectively, showing a growth rate of 9.96%, 12.78%, and 11.73% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) for 2022A was 12,838, 2023A was 14,108, and projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 14,893, 17,288, and 19,163 respectively, with growth rates of 5.56%, 16.08%, and 10.85% [2] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is 1.53 yuan per share, with projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E being 1.61, 1.87, and 2.08 yuan respectively [2] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 26.44 yuan, with a one-year low of 26.20 yuan and a high of 37.75 yuan [5] - The market capitalization is approximately 244.13 billion yuan [5] Basic Data - The book value per share is 7.90 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 37.44% [6] - The total share capital is 9,233.20 million shares, with 9,106.00 million shares in circulation [6]

EBG 及创新业务稳健增长，利润受费用影响承压 海康威视（002415. SZ）/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 8 月 20 日 评级：买入（维持）公司盈利预测及估值 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------|--------|-----------------------------------------------|----------------|----------------| | 市场价格：26. 71 元 | 才培标 | | 2022A | 2023A | | 分析师：王芳执业证书编号：S0740521120002 | | 营业收入（百万元）增长率 yoy%净利润（百万元） | 83,1662%12,837 | 89,3407%14.108 | | Email: wangfang02@zts.com.cn | | 塔长辛 yoy% | -24% | 10% | | | | | | | 执业证书编号：S0740521120001净资产收益率18%17%15%15%14% P ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision, indicating expected stock performance to outperform the benchmark index by more than 15% over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - Hikvision's business continues to develop steadily, with innovative business segments growing rapidly. The company reported a total revenue of 41.209 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.68%. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.13% to 5.064 billion yuan, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 4.11% to 5.243 billion yuan [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Hikvision achieved total revenue of 41.209 billion yuan, up 9.68% year-on-year. The gross profit margin remained stable at 45.05%. Domestic revenue from three business groups (BG) totaled 18.971 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.26%. The overseas business generated revenue of 11.441 billion yuan, an increase of 15.46%, while innovative business revenue reached 10.328 billion yuan, growing by 26.13% [2][3]. Business Segments - The report highlights a shift in revenue structure within the domestic market, with the public security sector's contribution to PBG revenue declining. However, traffic management and government business revenues are increasing. The EBG business continues to grow in various sectors, while overseas revenue is primarily driven by developing countries, which now contribute approximately 70% of international sales [3][4]. Research and Development - Hikvision has increased its R&D investment to 5.698 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 7.81%. Innovative business now accounts for 25% of total revenue, with significant market presence in various verticals. The company aims to enhance its competitive edge in scene digitalization [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Hikvision's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 98.085 billion, 107.253 billion, and 116.664 billion yuan, respectively. The adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 15.268 billion, 16.973 billion, and 18.689 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.65, 1.84, and 2.02 yuan per share. The projected P/E ratios are 16.15, 14.53, and 13.20 times [5][10].

证券代码：002415 证券简称：海康威视 公告编号：2024-049 号 杭州海康威视数字技术股份有限公司（以下简称"海康威视"或"公司"） 董事长胡扬忠先生于2024年8月20日以自有资金通过深圳证券交易所交易系统以 集中竞价方式增持公司股份360,000股，占公司总股本的0.0039%。本次增持后， 胡扬忠先生持有公司股份155,996,477股，占公司总股本的1.6895%。具体如下： 一、本次增持的主要情况 1、增持主体：公司董事长胡扬忠先生。截至本公告披露之日，胡扬忠先生 持有公司股份155,996,477股（包括2024年8月20日增持公司股份360,000股），占 公司总股本的1.6895%。 2、增持目的：基于对公司未来持续稳定发展的信心和长期投资价值的认可， 为维护股东利益，增强投资者信心，实施本次增持。 3、增持资金来源：增持主体自有资金。 4、增持方式：通过深圳证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价方式增持。 | 5、本次增持的具体情况： | | --- | 杭州海康威视数字技术股份有限公司 关于公司董事长增持公司股份的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Hikvision (002415.SZ) [3] Core Insights - The company reported a stable overall performance with significant growth in overseas and innovative business segments, achieving a revenue of 41.209 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.68% [1] - The innovative business segment has become a new growth driver, with total revenue reaching 10.328 billion yuan, up 26.13% year-on-year, driven by subsidiaries like Yingzi Network and Hikvision Robotics [1] - The company expects to recover its financial performance in the second half of 2024 after a special expense related to the cancellation of a stock incentive plan impacted net profit in the first half [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.064 billion yuan, down 5.13% year-on-year, while the non-deducted net profit was 5.243 billion yuan, up 4.11% [1] - The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 45.05%, a slight decrease of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The Public Service Business Group (PBG) faced challenges with revenue declining to 5.693 billion yuan, down 9.25% year-on-year, due to local government budget constraints [2] - The Enterprise Business Group (EBG) saw steady growth, with revenue of 7.489 billion yuan, up 7.05% year-on-year, driven by demand in various sectors [2] - The Small and Medium Business Group (SMBG) reported revenue of 5.789 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.64% year-on-year, focusing on channel development [2] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 99.814 billion yuan, 112.992 billion yuan, and 125.360 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.72%, 13.20%, and 10.95% [8] - Expected net profits for the same years are projected at 16.501 billion yuan, 18.507 billion yuan, and 20.718 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16.97%, 12.16%, and 11.95% respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision (002415) is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Hikvision reported a stable revenue growth with a revenue of 41.209 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.68%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.13% to 5.064 billion yuan, influenced by non-recurring gains and losses [2][6] - The company's gross profit margin was 45.05%, a slight decline of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue reached 23.392 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.46%, but net profit fell by 10.73% to 3.148 billion yuan [2][6] - The stable revenue growth was supported by overseas and innovative businesses, with significant growth in automotive electronics and storage businesses [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Hikvision achieved a revenue of 41.209 billion yuan, up 9.68% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.064 billion yuan, down 5.13%. The non-recurring net profit was 5.243 billion yuan, up 4.11% [2][6] - The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 45.05%, down 0.13 percentage points year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 23.392 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.148 billion yuan, down 10.73% [2][6] Business Segments - The Public Service Business Group (PBG) revenue was 5.693 billion yuan, down 9.25% year-on-year. The Enterprise Business Group (EBG) revenue was 7.489 billion yuan, up 7.05%. The Overseas Business revenue was 11.441 billion yuan, up 15.46%, and the Innovative Business revenue was 10.328 billion yuan, up 26.13% [6] - Notably, the automotive electronics business revenue grew by 60.35% to 1.606 billion yuan, and the storage business revenue increased by 65.51% to 1.312 billion yuan [6] Profitability and Valuation - The forecast for 2024-2026 includes projected revenues of 97.866 billion yuan, 109.311 billion yuan, and 122.878 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.54%, 11.69%, and 12.41% respectively. The net profit for the same period is expected to be 15.119 billion yuan, 17.102 billion yuan, and 19.458 billion yuan, with growth rates of 7.17%, 13.12%, and 13.77% respectively [6][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.64 yuan, 1.85 yuan, and 2.11 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.31% [6][7]