行 ——机械设备行业 11 月月报 分析师： 宁前羽 SAC NO： S1150522070001 2024 年 11 月 6 日 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 宁前羽 022-23839174 ningqy@bhzq.com [Table_Contactor] [Table_IndInvest] 子行业评级 通用设备 看好 专用设备 中性 交运设备 中性 工程机械 看好 自动化设备 看好 [Table_StkSuggest] 月度股票池 三一重工 增持 中联重科 增持 中国中车 增持 业 行业月报 研 [Table_MainInfo] 地产止跌回稳势头初显，关注工程机械内需改善 究 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行情回顾 2024 年 10 月 6 日-2024 年 11 月 5 日，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.66%，申万机 械设备行业上涨 7.76%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 7.09 个百分点，在申万所有一级 行业中位于第 9 位。 截至 2024 年 11 月 5 日，申万机械设备行业 TTM 市盈率为 26.53 倍（整体 法，剔除负值），相对于沪深 300 的估值溢价率为 ...

行 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 袁艺博 022-23839135 yuanyb@bhzq.com [吨 able_Summary] 投资要点： 行业要闻 [Table_Contactor] [Table_Contactor] [Table_IndInvest] 子行业评级 家居用品 中性 造纸 中性 包装印刷 中性 文娱用品 中性 纺织制造 中性 服装家纺 中性 饰品 中性 [Table_StkSuggest] 重点品种推荐 欧派家居 增持 索菲亚 增持 好太太 增持 探路者 增持 森马服饰 增持 欧派家居 [Table_IndInvest] 业 行业周报 [吨 able_MainInfo] 10 月商品房销售边际改善，政策显效可期待 研 究 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 分析师： 袁艺博 SAC NO： S1150521120002 2024 年 11 月 4 日 1）俄罗斯木材运输与交易量显著增长。 2）Prada 集团前三季度销售额同比增长 18％。 证 公司重要公告 1）比音勒芬：前三季度公司业绩同比增长 0.55%。 2）公牛集团：前三季度公司业绩同比增长 16.00%。 行情回顾 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has shown resilience despite operational fluctuations, supported by policies that aid long-term industry development [2] - In the third quarter, the company faced operational pressure with a revenue decline of 5.05% year-on-year, resulting in a net profit decrease of 9.02% [3] - The overall cash flow situation remains strong, with net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 14.36% year-on-year [3] - Recent government policies are expected to enhance market demand stability and promote product innovation, benefiting leading companies in the electric bicycle sector [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 17.464 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.05% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.554 billion yuan, down 0.25% year-on-year [2] - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters was 17.42%, up 1.62 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of 9.02%, up 0.05 percentage points [3] - In Q3, revenue was 6.873 billion yuan, down 5.05% year-on-year, and net profit was 603 million yuan, down 9.02% year-on-year [3] Industry Development - New policies from the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aim to promote the replacement of old electric bicycles, enhancing safety standards and market demand [4] - The introduction of new safety technical specifications for electric bicycles is expected to drive product quality improvements and innovation [4] Earnings Forecast - The EPS forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 2.34 yuan, 2.72 yuan, and 3.18 yuan respectively, with a corresponding PE of 15 times for 2024 [5]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for general equipment and engineering machinery, while "Neutral" for specialized equipment and transportation equipment [1][1][1]. Core Viewpoints - The construction machinery operating rate in China for Q3 2024 is reported at 50.27%, showing a steady improvement [7]. - The operating hours for Komatsu excavators in China reached 95.3 hours in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [7]. - The urban rail completed passenger volume in September was 2.58 billion trips, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth [8]. - The overall working hours for construction machinery have increased for four consecutive months from June to September, with a cumulative growth of 7.52% [7]. - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate market, with recent policies aimed at stabilizing the sector, which is expected to enhance domestic demand for construction machinery [20]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The national construction machinery operating rate for Q3 2024 is 50.27% [7]. - In September, the operating hours for Komatsu excavators in China were 95.3 hours, up 6.9% year-on-year [7]. - Urban rail passenger volume in September reached 2.58 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year [8]. Company Announcements - Hangcha Group reported a revenue of 4.179 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a decrease of 2.65% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 9.07% [12]. - In Q3 2024, Huichuan Technology forecasted a revenue growth of 20%-30% year-on-year [13]. Market Review - From October 16 to October 22, 2024, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.64%, while the machinery equipment sector increased by 5.32%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.68 percentage points [14]. - The price-to-earnings ratio for the machinery equipment sector as of October 22, 2024, is 25.88 times, with a premium of 109.19% compared to the CSI 300 [15]. Weekly Insights - The report highlights that excavator sales in September met expectations, driven by large-scale equipment renewal policies, with domestic sales growth exceeding CME expectations [20]. - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry and recommends "Increase" ratings for SANY Heavy Industry, China CRRC, and Zoomlion [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [9][33] - The report recommends "Increase" ratings for specific companies: Oppein Home, Sophia, Good Wife, Pathfinder, and Semir Apparel [9][33] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in packaging paper prices, with major paper companies implementing price hikes between 30 to 50 CNY per ton, and some companies raising prices by up to 100 CNY per ton due to rising raw material costs [11] - LVMH Group reported a third-quarter revenue of 19.08 billion euros, which was below market expectations, indicating potential challenges in the luxury goods sector [11] - The upcoming "Double Eleven" shopping festival is expected to boost consumer demand in home and apparel categories, contributing to marginal improvements in the market [33] Summary by Sections Industry News - The report notes the concentrated price increases in packaging paper and the overall positive market sentiment as companies adjust prices [11] - LVMH's disappointing sales figures in the fashion and wine sectors suggest challenges in the luxury market [11] High-Frequency Data - TDI and MDI prices have increased, with TDI averaging 13,000 CNY per ton and MDI at 18,300 CNY per ton as of October 18 [11] Company Announcements - Shanying International has secured a 200 million CNY special loan for share repurchase [25] - Linuo Glass has obtained a 100 million CNY loan for share buyback purposes [26] - Pathfinder expects a year-on-year profit increase of 107.23% to 133.27% for the first three quarters of 2024 [26] Market Review - From October 14 to 18, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.16 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector lagged by 0.01 percentage points [27][32] - The report identifies the top-performing stocks in the light industry and textile sectors, highlighting significant gains for companies like Songfa and Risheng [31][32] Weekly Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which are expected to support demand in the home and apparel sectors [33]

Industry Ratings - Steel: Neutral [1] - Non-ferrous Metals: Positive [1] Core Views - The report maintains a neutral rating for the steel industry and a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the latter [3]. - Key recommended stocks include: - Bo Wei Alloy: Increase [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum: Increase [1] - Zhongjin Gold: Increase [1] - Xiyang Co.: Increase [1] - Zijin Mining: Increase [1] - Shandong Gold: Increase [1] Industry News - The People's Bank of China has lowered the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 25 basis points, which is expected to support metal prices [10]. - Indonesia plans to export electric vehicle battery precursors to the U.S. next month, aiming to manage nickel ore supply to support prices [10]. - The recent orange alert for heavy pollution in Jiaozuo City may restrict alumina production capacity, potentially supporting aluminum prices [2][10]. Industry Data Steel - As of October 18, the total steel inventory (social + factory) was 12.70 million tons, down 2.84% from the previous week and down 17.26% year-on-year [15]. - The average profit margins for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, rebar, and medium-thick plates were -639, -940, -521, and -806 yuan per ton, respectively, indicating a decline in profitability [24]. - The steel price index for the week was 3,743.49 yuan per ton, down 3.26% from the previous week and down 11.96% year-on-year [24]. Copper - Global refined copper supply was short by 64,400 tons in August 2024, with domestic inventory rising and demand remaining moderate [25]. - The copper smelting fees increased by 43.82% compared to the previous week, indicating a tightening supply situation [27]. Aluminum - The domestic aluminum processing industry is operating steadily, with tight alumina supply expected to support aluminum prices [30]. - As of October 18, the average price of alumina was 4,606 yuan per ton, up 8.25% from the previous week [31]. Lithium - The lithium industry is facing oversupply pressure, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices at 74,000 yuan per ton, down 5.01% from the previous week [40].

行 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 分析师： 袁艺博 SAC NO： S1150521120002 2024 年 10 月 14 日 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 袁艺博 022-23839135 yuanyb@bhzq.com [吨 able_Summary] 投资要点： 行业要闻 [Table_Contactor] [Table_Contactor] [Table_IndInvest] 子行业评级 家居用品 中性 造纸 中性 包装印刷 中性 文娱用品 中性 纺织制造 中性 服装家纺 中性 饰品 中性 [Table_StkSuggest] 重点品种推荐 欧派家居 增持 索菲亚 增持 好太太 增持 探路者 增持 森马服饰 增持 欧派家居 [Table_IndInvest] 业 行业周报 [吨 able_MainInfo] 政策驱动加力，短期调整不改估值修复持续 研 究 1）多地上调纸板价格，涨幅 3%-5%。 2）TikTok Shop 美区跨境商家门槛放宽，支持 9 家电商平台。 公司重要公告 1）山鹰国际：SVP 拟以 33.45 亿瑞典克朗的对价要约收购北欧纸业。 2）齐峰新材：前三季度公司 ...

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行 ――金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2024 年 10 月 15 日 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com [投资要点： Table_Summary] [Table_Contactor] [Table_IndInvest] 行业评级 钢铁 中性 有色金属 看好 [Table_StkSuggest] 重点品种推荐 博威合金 增持 洛阳钼业 增持 中金黄金 增持 锡业股份 增持 紫金矿业 增持 山东黄金 增持 业 研 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo] 政策密集出台，期待实施效果 究 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 钢铁：在旺季驱动下，需求仍有改善空间；国内利好政策提振市场信心，需 关注后续政策实施效果。 铜：目前海外降息以及国内刺激政策均利好铜价，矿端干扰仍存，铜价或维 持强势。 铝：国内利好政策提振市场情绪，旺季预期下基本面有望持续改善，铝价或 偏强运行。 锂：旺季下虽短期需求有改善预期，但当前锂行业供给过剩压力仍大，预计 短期锂价维持震荡。 本周策略 （1）铜：矿端干扰不断，铜精矿供应偏 ...

行 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 分析师： 袁艺博 SAC NO： S1150521120002 2024 年 10 月 8 日 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 袁艺博 022-23839135 yuanyb@bhzq.com [Table_Contactor] [Table_Contactor] [Table_IndInvest] 子行业评级 家居用品 中性 造纸 中性 包装印刷 中性 文娱用品 中性 纺织制造 中性 服装家纺 中性 饰品 中性 [Table_StkSuggest] 重点品种推荐 欧派家居 增持 索菲亚 增持 好太太 增持 探路者 增持 森马服饰 增持 欧派家居 [Table_IndInvest] 业 行业周报 [吨 able_MainInfo] 政策组合拳出台，看好估值修复持续性 研 究 [吨 able_Summary] 投资要点： 行业要闻 1）Arauco 宣布巴西新浆厂产能增至 350 万吨 预计 2027 年投产。 2）向电商平台寻求流量 快时尚品牌 H&M 入驻拼多多、抖音。 公司重要公告 1）嘉益股份：公司拟向 234 名员工授予 119.37 万股。 2）松发股份 ...