Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the Light Industry Manufacturing sector [1] - A "Buy" rating is recommended for Aima Technology (603529 SH) [1] Core Views - The domestic electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler industry is experiencing steady growth, with electric bicycles accounting for 88 67% of the market and electric motorcycles making up 11 33% [3] - In 2023, domestic electric two-wheeler sales reached 55 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9 78%, with a CAGR of 10 57% from 2019 to 2023 [3] - The market share of electric two-wheelers is increasingly concentrated among leading enterprises, with the top 4 listed companies holding a combined market share of 58 19% in 2023 [3] - Tianjin has become a significant base for the electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler industry, with its electric bicycle production accounting for 37 32% of the national total in 2023 [4] - The export potential for Tianjin's electric two-wheelers remains untapped, with exports accounting for only 8 41% of the national total in 2023 [5] - The electric two-wheeler battery swapping market is in its early stages, with a market size of 7 08 billion yuan in 2023, expected to exceed 20 billion yuan by 2026 [5] Domestic Electric Two-Wheeler and Three-Wheeler Industry - In 2023, domestic electric two-wheeler sales reached 55 million units, with a CAGR of 10 57% from 2019 to 2023 [3] - The electric two-wheeler market is dominated by electric bicycles, which account for 88 67% of the market, while electric motorcycles make up 11 33% [3] - The market share of electric two-wheelers is increasingly concentrated among leading enterprises, with the top 4 listed companies holding a combined market share of 58 19% in 2023 [3] - The electric three-wheeler market maintained a size of around 40 billion yuan in 2023, with sales of approximately 14 million units [12] Tianjin as a Key Industry Base - Tianjin's electric bicycle production accounted for 37 32% of the national total in 2023, with a CAGR of 19 79% from 2018 to 2023 [4] - Tianjin has a strong manufacturing foundation and a complete industrial chain, making it a key base for the electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler industry [4] - The city has attracted leading enterprises such as Aima, Yadea, and Tailg to set up production bases, further solidifying its position as a key industry hub [28] Export and Overseas Market Potential - In 2023, China's electric two-wheeler exports exceeded 15 million units, with Tianjin accounting for 8 41% of the national total [5] - The global electric two-wheeler market is expanding, with Europe and the US being the primary export markets, while Southeast Asia is seen as a potential growth market [5] - Leading companies such as Aima, Yadea, and Tailg have started production base layouts in Southeast Asia, enhancing their competitiveness in the region [44][45][46][47] Battery Swapping and Charging Infrastructure - The electric two-wheeler battery swapping market is in its early stages, with a market size of 7 08 billion yuan in 2023, expected to exceed 20 billion yuan by 2026 [5] - Tianjin is accelerating the construction of charging and swapping stations, aiming to add at least 100,000 new charging piles by 2030 [5] - The city has already established a significant presence in the battery swapping market, with 864 swapping stations and 1,200 swapping cabinets deployed as of May 2023 [56] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has strengthened regulations on the electric bicycle industry, optimizing the supply-side structure and stimulating domestic demand through policies such as "trade-in" programs [6] - Tianjin has introduced policies to promote the large-scale and standardized development of the electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler industry, including support for digital transformation and intelligent manufacturing [24][25]

行 告 业 研 [Table_MainInfo] 进入 9 月旺季，下游需求改善 行业周报 究 | --- | --- | |---------------------------|------------------| | 分析师： | 张珂 | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | | 张珂 | | | 022-23839062 | | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|----------------|------------------------------| | | | ―― 金属行业周报 | | SAC NO ： | S1150523120001 | 2024 年 9 月 19 日 | | | | | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 钢铁：在旺季驱动下，钢材基本面逐渐改善，目前市场有国庆节前备货预期， 短期有望对钢价形成支撑。 铜：市场对国庆节前的备库需求有一定的预期，预计国内铜库存有望继续去 库，进而给铜价带来支撑，需观察后续库存的去库力度和海外央行的货币政 策变化。 铝：据 SMM 消息，马来西亚齐力铝 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for General Equipment and Engineering Machinery, while "Neutral" for Specialized Equipment and Transportation Equipment [1][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that excavator sales in August showed improvement, with overseas market sales turning positive for the first time this year. The focus remains on the globalization of leading companies in the industry [4]. - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry and recommends "Increase" ratings for SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, and CRRC Corporation [4][26]. Industry News - In August, forklift sales reached 98,883 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.26%. Domestic sales decreased by 4.73%, while export sales increased by 11.6% [12]. - In August, the operating hours of Komatsu excavators in China were 93.0 hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [13]. Industry Data - The steel composite price index (CSPI) slightly rebounded to 90.90 as of September 13, 2024 [14]. - As of September 17, 2024, WTI and Brent crude oil prices were $68.65 per barrel and $71.61 per barrel, respectively [14]. Company Announcements - Zoomlion Heavy Industry announced the termination of its subsidiary's plan for a separate listing due to changes in market conditions [17]. Market Review - From September 11 to September 17, 2024, the CSI 300 index fell by 1.14%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment industry dropped by 1.31%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.17 percentage points [18]. - As of September 17, 2024, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment industry was 20.50 times, with a valuation premium of 98.21% relative to the CSI 300 [20]. Weekly Insights - The report indicates that the demand for rail transit equipment is expected to grow, supported by government investments in transportation infrastructure. The report anticipates continued growth in fixed asset investments in rail transit [26].

行 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|---------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|---------------------------------------|--------------------| | 业 研 究 | [ 吨 able_MainInfo] \n分析师： 袁艺博 | | | SAC NO ： | 继续关注"以旧换新"和出口链 ―― \nS1150521120 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the steel sub-industry as **Neutral** and the non-ferrous metals sub-industry as **Positive** [2] Core Viewpoints - **Supply Constraints**: Global germanium (Ge) supply is rigid due to environmental policies, resource protection measures, and economic factors, with China being the largest producer [3] - **Demand Growth**: Germanium demand is increasing in high-tech fields such as fiber optics, infrared, and solar energy, driven by 5G, IoT, and satellite internet development [4] - **Price Elasticity**: Germanium prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and growing demand, with a projected global supply-demand gap of 22.6 tons by 2026 [4] - **Strategic Importance**: Germanium is increasingly recognized as a strategic resource globally, with major economies like the US, EU, and Japan listing it as a critical mineral [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Strategic Metal Resource – Germanium - Germanium is a rare metal with unique semiconductor properties, widely used in high-tech industries such as fiber optics, infrared optics, and solar energy [10] - It is classified as a strategic resource by major economies, including the US, EU, and Japan, due to its importance in defense and high-tech applications [10][11] - China has included germanium in its strategic key mineral list and imposed export restrictions in 2023 [12] 2. Germanium Resource Distribution and Supply - Global germanium reserves are concentrated in the US (45%) and China (41%), with total reserves estimated at 8,600 tons [3][22] - China dominates global germanium production, accounting for 67.86% of global output in 2021 [28] - China's export restrictions have led to a decline in germanium exports and an increase in export prices for certain products [31] 3. Demand Growth in Fiber Optics, Infrared, and Solar Energy - **Fiber Optics**: Germanium is used to enhance the refractive index in fiber optics, with demand driven by 5G network expansion and cloud computing [37][38] - **Infrared**: Military and civilian applications, such as night vision and thermal imaging, are boosting germanium demand in the infrared sector [42][44] - **Solar Energy**: Germanium is a key material in satellite solar cells, with demand expected to grow due to satellite internet projects like Starlink and China's GW and G60 plans [53][58] 4. Germanium Price Trends and Supply-Demand Forecast - Historical germanium prices have shown significant volatility, influenced by supply constraints, geopolitical events, and demand fluctuations [63] - Future supply is expected to remain tight due to environmental and export restrictions, while demand from fiber optics, infrared, and solar energy will drive price increases [67] - The global germanium supply-demand gap is projected to reach 22.6 tons by 2026, supporting strong price performance [67]

行 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|---------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------|-- ...

行业周报 -20.00% -18.00% -16.00% -14.00% -12.00% -10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% [Table_IndInvest] 业 研 [吨 able_MainInfo] 沪深加码以旧换新，电子烟新规出台 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 分析师： 袁艺博 SAC NO： S1150521120002 2024 年 9 月 10 日 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | | 袁艺博 | | | 022-23839135 | | | yuanyb@bhzq.com | | [吨 able_Summary] 投资要点： 1）美国商务部对中、泰、越三国的纸餐盘作出反倾销初裁，倾销率最高达 1,039.05%。 2）母婴品牌 Babycare 旗下儿童运动户外品牌上市。 公司重要公告 1）奥瑞金：公司拟以 55.24 亿元收购中粮包装。 2）裕同科技：公司已累计回购 0.11%的股 ...

行 钢价维持震荡运行。 铜：美国就业数据不佳，加深市场对美国经济衰退的担忧，对铜价形成压制； 智利国家铜业委员会在最近的一份报告中表示铜矿紧缺的局面将继续延续； 下游需求表现一般，仍需观察旺季需求数据。 铝：铝土矿供应延续偏紧，下游电解铝厂生产持稳，氧化铝价格或维持强势， 需关注氧化铝企业复产进度及矿石供应影响；目前下游需求改善尚不明显， 预计短期电解铝价维持震荡。 业 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo] 美国就业数据不佳，压制工业金属价格 研 究 ――金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2024 年 9 月 10 日 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com [投资要点： Table_Summary] 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 钢铁：本周钢厂逐渐复产，需求表现一般，库存继续下降，钢价走弱；原料 价格下跌，成本支撑力度下降；仍需观察后续旺季需求数据表现，预计短期 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_IndQuotePic] 最近一季度行业相对走势 行 业 周 报 [Table_Contacto ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company, Aorikin, is a leading player in the domestic metal packaging industry, with a strong foundation built through mergers and acquisitions, including the acquisition of Ball Asia Pacific's packaging business and Jamestrong in Australia [17][21]. - The company has shown solid performance with a revenue growth of 1.14% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 18.39% year-on-year in the first half of the year [21]. - The trend towards consolidation in the metal packaging industry is evident, with an increasing demand for beer cans, which is expected to drive future growth [29][35]. - The company is diversifying its customer base and business operations, aiming to strengthen its position in the market through strategic acquisitions and new product development [21][29]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Aorikin is a comprehensive packaging solution provider established in 1994, with a significant presence across 16 provinces in China and over 40 manufacturing bases [17][18]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with strategic investments from key clients, enhancing its market position [18][19]. Industry Trends - The metal packaging industry has reached a scale of over 1,500 billion, with a slight increase in market share for metal packaging [30][33]. - The industry is experiencing a consolidation trend, with major players increasing their market share through acquisitions [35]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 72.06 billion in the first half of the year, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.90% from 2014 to 2023 [21]. - The gross profit margin improved by 3.38 percentage points in 2023, reaching 15.24%, driven by a decrease in raw material prices [23]. - The company maintains a strong cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 15.54 billion in the first half of the year, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase [26]. Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.35, 0.39, and 0.43 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.63 for 2024 [21].

机械设备行业业绩综述报告 报 告 行 业 研 [Table_MainInfo] 行业业绩有所分化，24Q2 基金增持机械设备股 ——机械设备行业 2024 半年报综述 分析师： 宁前羽 SAC NO： S1150522070001 2024 年 9 月 3 日 [Table_Summary 行业整体经营情况 ] 2024 年上半年机械设备行业营收稳步增长，归母净利润有所下降，行业实现 营业总收入 9314.35 亿元，同比增长 3.56%；实现归母净利润 630.71 亿元， 同比下降 4.16%。2024 年上半年机械设备行业盈利能力小幅下降，2024H1 行 业毛利率为 23.16%，较 2023 年同期减少 0.20pct；2024 年上半年机械设备行 业净利率为 7.25%，较 2023 年同期减少 0.55pct。 基金持仓情况 行业配置方面，基金（基金和基金管理公司）增持机械设备股。2024Q2 基金 持有机械设备股票数量由 2024Q1 的 349 只增加至 536 只，持股市值由 2024Q1 的 1076.05 亿元增加至 2028.65 亿元。行业持仓集中度有所下降。截至 2024Q2， ...