1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, the main indices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fluctuated and declined. The Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index had the largest decline of 6.24%, while the SSE 50 Index was relatively resilient with a decline of 1.39%. Thirteen out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rose, with the top 5 gainers being comprehensive, banking, textile and apparel, petroleum and petrochemicals, and light manufacturing. The top 5 decliners were computer, automobile, electronics, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology [1][14]. - In October 2025, the number of newly opened accounts for individual and institutional investors decreased significantly after continuous monthly increases. The private securities investment fund market continued its moderate recovery. The newly -备案 scale in October rebounded to 42.92 billion yuan, and the existing scale expanded significantly to 22.05 trillion yuan, reaching a new high in nearly three years [2][21]. - In November, 65 new funds were issued with a scale of 5.3052 billion yuan. The issuance shares of active and passive equity funds both declined month - on - month, and the equity fund issuance market continued to cool slightly. Except for commodity - type funds, all types of funds declined to varying degrees, with equity - biased funds having the largest average decline of 2.43%. Value style outperformed growth style, and large - cap style outperformed small - cap style [3]. - Through the calculation of the industry positions of active equity funds, in November, the industries with the highest increase in positions were household appliances, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverages; the industries with the highest reduction in positions were national defense and military industry, computer, and electronics. The overall position of active equity funds on November 28, 2025, was 81.96%, up 2.12 pct from the previous month [4]. - In November, the net inflow of funds into the ETF market was 120.526 billion yuan, slowing down from the previous month. Many broad - based indices such as the CSI 300 experienced capital outflows, while ETFs related to gold, Hong Kong technology, non - bank finance, and innovative drugs had the highest net inflows. Among the most actively traded targets, some ETFs had significant gains or losses, and specific funds had large net inflows or outflows [5]. - In November, the risk - parity model declined by 0.14%, and the risk - budget model declined by 0.34% [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Month's Market Review 3.1.1 Domestic Market Situation - In November, the main indices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fluctuated and declined. The Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index had the largest decline of 6.24%, and the SSE 50 Index was relatively resilient with a decline of 1.39%. Thirteen out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rose, with the top 5 gainers and decliners as mentioned above. The ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index declined by 0.26%, and the total full - price indices of ChinaBond treasury bonds, financial bonds, and credit bonds declined between 0.10% and 0.60%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index declined by 0.69%, and the Nanhua Commodity Index rose by 0.53% [14]. 3.1.2欧美及亚太市场情况 - In November, the main indices of the European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets showed mixed performance. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 rose by 0.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.32%, and the Nasdaq declined by 1.51%. In the European market, the French CAC40 rose by 0.02%, and the German DAX declined by 0.51%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.18%, and the Nikkei 225 declined by 4.12% [26]. 3.1.3 Market Valuation Situation - In November, the valuations of most main market indices were adjusted downward. The growth - technology indices represented by the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index and the ChiNext Index were under pressure. The historical quantile of the price - to - earnings ratio of the former decreased significantly, and the latter was already at a relatively low historical level. The historical quantile of the price - to - book ratio of the CSI 1000 Index also declined significantly. Among industries, the top 5 industries with the highest historical quantiles of the price - to - earnings ratio of the Shenwan primary index were banking, real estate, electronics, commercial trade, and coal. The historical quantile of the price - to - earnings ratio of the banking industry was at a high level, and that of the real estate industry reached 94.8%. The bottom 5 industries with the lowest historical quantiles were non - bank finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverages, beauty care, and non - ferrous metals, with the non - bank finance industry's valuation approaching its historical low since 2013 [30]. 3.2 Overall Situation of Public Funds 3.2.1 Fund Issuance Situation - In November, 65 new funds were issued with a scale of 5.3052 billion yuan, and the issuance speed slowed down significantly compared with the previous month. Among them, 31 equity funds, 17 hybrid funds, 8 bond funds, 8 FOF funds, and 1 REITs fund were issued. The issuance shares of active and passive equity funds both declined month - on - month, and the equity fund issuance market continued to cool slightly [39]. 3.2.2 Fund Market Return Situation - In November, except for commodity - type funds, all types of funds declined to varying degrees. Equity - biased funds had the largest average decline of 2.43%. From the perspective of fund style indices, the market showed a broad - based decline, with significant differentiation in the performance of different - style funds. Value style outperformed growth style, and large - cap style outperformed small - cap style. Among different - sized equity - biased public funds, the mini - funds with a scale of 50 million - 100 million had the smallest average decline of 2.26% and a positive - return ratio of 13.22%, while the large - scale funds with a scale of 4 billion - 10 billion had the largest average decline of 2.56% and a positive - return ratio of 10.98% [3][47][51]. 3.2.3 Active Equity Fund Position Situation - In November, the industries with the highest increase in positions of active equity funds were household appliances, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverages; the industries with the highest reduction in positions were national defense and military industry, computer, and electronics. The overall position of active equity funds on November 28, 2025, was 81.96%, up 2.12 pct from the previous month [4][54][55]. 3.3 ETF Fund Situation - In November, the net inflow of funds into the ETF market was 120.526 billion yuan, slowing down from the previous month. Cross - border ETFs had a net inflow of 54.892 billion yuan, bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of 17.884 billion yuan, and stock - type ETFs had a net inflow of 13.017 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market was 455.931 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume was 164.867 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 7.94%, a decrease of 1.72 pct from October. Many broad - based indices such as the CSI 300 experienced capital outflows, while ETFs related to gold, Hong Kong technology, non - bank finance, and innovative drugs had the highest net inflows. Some ETFs had significant gains or losses, and specific funds had large net inflows or outflows [5][58][62]. 3.4 Model Operation Situation - In November, the risk - parity model declined by 0.14%, and the risk - budget model declined by 0.34%. Since 2015, the annualized return of the risk - parity model was 4.74% with a maximum drawdown of 2.31%, and the annualized return of the risk - budget model was 4.90% with a maximum drawdown of 9.80%. The asset allocation weights of the models will remain unchanged next month. For the risk - parity model, the weights of stocks, bonds, commodities, and QDII are 6%, 66%, 14%, and 14% respectively; for the risk - budget model, the weights are 13%, 48%, 10%, and 30% respectively [6][74][75].

Group 1: Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - The U.S. economy in 2026 may be more fragile than it appears, with growth driven mainly by AI-related investments and high-income consumer spending, while other contributions remain minimal[4] - The unemployment rate is expected to maintain balance under constrained supply and demand, but the labor market is still experiencing cyclical slowdowns[4] - Inflation is projected to slow down in its return to target levels due to core components, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process[4] Group 2: Domestic Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a shift in policy focus to solidify development foundations while addressing external uncertainties and weak internal demand[5] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain "more proactive," with an emphasis on early deployment and investment in human capital[5] - Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative but will focus more on credit quality and liquidity management[5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Environment - China's economic growth in 2026 is anticipated to stabilize around 5%, with investment leading the recovery while consumption requires systematic policy support[6] - External demand is expected to ensure stable growth in industrial value added, with a focus on high-tech industries and their ability to enhance competitiveness[6] - Inflation is expected to have a basis for recovery, particularly with the PPI growth potentially rebounding significantly[6] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Geopolitical risks and unexpected economic and policy changes pose significant threats to the economic outlook[7]

Fixed Income Research - The overall issuance guidance rates for credit bonds have decreased, with a range of -14BP to -5BP [2] - In November, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds seeing a decrease in issuance amounts [2] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased month-on-month, with corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds showing negative net financing [2] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction volume for credit bonds, with yields remaining low and showing a downward trend [2] - The overall credit spread for credit bonds narrowed month-on-month, with most varieties at historical low levels [2] Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 343 million yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.77%, and a net profit of 91.17 million yuan, up 28.88% [18] - The company's profitability has improved, with a gross margin of 40.37% and a net margin of 26.16%, both showing year-on-year increases [19] - The company has seen significant cash flow growth, with net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 255.32% year-on-year [19] - The company is expanding its production capacity and has initiated new product developments, including a new line for functional paper-based materials [21] Industry Research - The "ice and snow holiday" policy is expected to boost consumption in related sectors, particularly in tourism and sports [24] - The retail sales of furniture from January to October reached 169.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.90% [25] - The textile and apparel retail sales during the same period amounted to 1,205.28 billion yuan, growing by 3.50% year-on-year [25] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.77 percentage points from November 3 to November 28 [26] - The new consumption promotion plan emphasizes supply-demand matching, which is expected to benefit sectors like home appliances and textiles [26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery in November 2025, driven by improvements in both production and demand, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.2% and the production index increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0% [2][3] - The new orders index also saw an increase of 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, while new export orders rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, reflecting a positive impact from the recent US-China trade discussions [3] - The report highlights that large enterprises' manufacturing PMI fell by 0.6 percentage points to 49.3%, remaining below the threshold, while medium and small enterprises showed improvements, with medium enterprises rising by 0.2 percentage points to 48.9% and small enterprises increasing by 2.0 percentage points to 49.1%, marking the second-highest level this year [3] Group 2 - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 49.5%, the lowest level since 2023, with the construction sector showing a slight recovery while the service sector declined due to the end of holiday effects [4] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating a contraction, primarily due to the decline in the non-manufacturing sector offsetting the manufacturing recovery [4] - Overall, the report suggests that the improvement in manufacturing sentiment is mainly attributed to a stabilizing external environment, with expectations for continued improvement in December due to forthcoming policy deployments [4]

Macro and Strategy Research - The report highlights a divergence in the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, with a 70% market expectation for a cut in December, although the actual impact may be similar whether it occurs in December or January [3][4] - In the U.S., retail sales showed a slowdown, particularly in the automotive sector, while investment in AI-related fields continues to support economic growth [3] - Domestic industrial profits have declined, with a notable drop in profits for mid and downstream industries, while upstream sectors benefited from stable raw material prices [4] Fixed Income Research - The report indicates a downward trend in the average issuance guidance rates for credit bonds in 2025, with a decrease of 151 basis points to 39 basis points compared to 2024 [5][7] - Credit bond issuance in 2025 decreased compared to the previous year, but net financing increased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity in the bond market, with a focus on the "debt and development" narrative, suggesting that credit risk is perceived to be low [7][8] Industry Research - The report discusses the State Council's initiative to promote provincial-level coordination of basic medical insurance, enhancing the system's security capabilities [13][17] - Recent FDA approvals for innovative treatments, such as BeiGene's Sotigalimab for lymphoma, highlight the ongoing advancements in the biopharmaceutical sector [14][15] - The report notes a decline in the SW pharmaceutical index, with a current P/E ratio of 51.78, indicating a significant premium over the CSI 300 index [16] - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the innovative drug sector, particularly in diagnostics, vaccines, and related pharmaceutical companies [16]

晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投 资策略报告 工企利润短期波动，后续关注政策部署——2025 年 1-10 月工业企业效益数据 点评 行业研究 把握创新与出海机遇，关注新技术空间——医药生物行业 2026 年度投资策略 报告 大模型厂商发力 C 端应用，关注 AI 应用商业化落地——计算机行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投资策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 1、 ...

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - From January to October 2025, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises decreased to 1.3%, down from 1.9% in the previous month[1] - In October 2025, the profit of industrial enterprises fell by 5.5%, a decline of 27.1 percentage points compared to September[1] - The cumulative profit growth rate varied by enterprise type, with state-owned enterprises showing improvement while private and foreign-invested enterprises experienced a decline, though still maintaining positive growth[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The industrial added value growth rate for October was 4.9%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from September[1] - The operating revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises fell by 0.6 percentage points to 1.8% in the same period[1] - The profit margin for January to October was 5.25%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a widening decline compared to the first nine months[1] Group 3: Sector Performance and Investment Opportunities - Among 41 industrial sectors, 17 sectors achieved positive profit growth from January to October, a reduction of 4 sectors compared to the previous month[1] - High-tech manufacturing, particularly in computer and communication equipment, showed accelerated profit growth, driven by ongoing capital investment and domestic substitution trends[1] - Future investment opportunities are anticipated in sectors like TMT and robotics, driven by AI capital expansion and domestic demand stimulation[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the computer industry [3][30]. Core Insights - The AI large model sector is experiencing rapid iteration, with domestic companies making significant advancements in AI applications, particularly in consumer-facing (C-end) solutions. The recent launch of Alibaba's Qianwen app has achieved over 10 million downloads in its first week, marking it as the fastest-growing AI application in history [14][27]. - The report highlights the collaboration between domestic AI models and accelerated computing chips, which enhances the synergy between algorithms and hardware, laying a solid foundation for large-scale implementation across various industries [27][29]. - The AI computing power market remains robust, with major cloud computing firms maintaining high capital expenditure, supporting the sustained growth of the AI computing sector [29]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments are promoting the application of artificial intelligence across all sectors of consumer goods [14]. - Alibaba's Qianwen app aims to become a future AI life portal, integrating functionalities across various life scenarios such as office work, navigation, health, and shopping [14][27]. - Ant Group's Lingguang AI assistant achieved over 1 million downloads within four days of its launch, indicating strong market interest in AI-driven applications [14]. Company Announcements - Zhong An Ke announced the sale of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Guardforce Investment Holdings Pty Ltd, for AUD 16.8 million [16]. - Huashi Technology is investing RMB 22.5 million in Hangzhou Yuchuang Robot Technology Co., Ltd., increasing its stake to 15% [18]. Market Review - From November 20 to November 26, the CSI 300 index fell by 1.54%, while the Shenwan Computer Industry index decreased by 0.90%, with all sub-sectors experiencing declines [21][23]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Computer Industry is 54.76 times, with a valuation premium of 339.27% compared to the CSI 300 [23]. Weekly Strategy - The report emphasizes the ongoing competition in the global large model sector, which is expected to drive technological innovation and accelerate the commercialization of AI applications. The focus is on companies that demonstrate strong capabilities in AI technology implementation and scene adaptation [27][29].

Group 1: Key Insights on Light Industry and Textile Apparel - The潮玩 (trendy toys) industry has a promising outlook, with a projected CAGR of 23.2% from 2019 to 2024, expecting to reach 213.3 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the Z generation's pursuit of personalization and cultural value [2] - The pet industry is expected to grow to 404.2 billion yuan by 2027, supported by factors such as family size reduction and the aging population, with the pet food sector projected to reach 158.5 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The metal packaging sector is experiencing revenue and profit improvements, with a shift towards a "value war" and increased overseas business development, enhancing long-term profitability [2] - The textile manufacturing sector is seeing a gradual recovery in orders as tariff risks diminish, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue changes of +1.44%, -0.75%, and -1.03% respectively [3] - The domestic clothing market is showing weak performance, but policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to boost the sports apparel market, projected to reach 408.9 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - Investment strategies highlight the ongoing consumer focus on emotional value, benefiting industries like trendy toys and pets, while the textile sector is poised for recovery due to stable tariff risks and supportive policies [3] Group 2: Key Insights on Machinery Equipment - In October, China's engineering machinery import and export trade reached 4.844 billion USD, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year, with an average operating rate of 45.56% for the industry [6] - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with excavator and loader sales maintaining growth, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and a favorable domestic investment strategy [6] - The industry maintains a "positive" rating, with specific companies like 中联重科 (Zoomlion) and 恒立液压 (Hengli Hydraulic) recommended for "increase" ratings [7] Group 3: Key Insights on Metal Industry - Gold prices are expected to rise due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a projected demand increase from global ETFs and stable industrial demand [8] - Copper supply is anticipated to turn short in 2026, driven by increasing demand from renewable energy sectors and technological advancements, which may support copper prices [8] - Tungsten's strategic value is highlighted by strong demand in high-tech and defense sectors, with supply constraints expected to keep prices elevated [9] - Cobalt supply is projected to face significant shortfalls due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with demand from the electric vehicle battery sector expected to rise [9]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes that gold prices are expected to rise due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a potential reduction of about 75 basis points. This is supported by increasing global ETF demand and stable industrial demand for gold [5][6][8]. - The copper market is projected to face a supply shortage in 2026, driven by the growing demand from renewable energy sectors and AI developments, while supply constraints arise from declining ore grades and geopolitical risks [6][8]. - Tungsten is highlighted for its strategic importance, particularly in high-tech and defense sectors, with strong demand expected from automation and military spending, while supply remains tight due to China's control over production [7][8]. - Cobalt supply is anticipated to decrease significantly due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand from electric vehicle batteries and portable devices is expected to grow, leading to a widening supply gap [8][8]. Industry Performance Review - The steel industry index increased by 22.24% from December 31, 2024, to November 21, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.05 percentage points. The steel sub-sectors showed varied performance, with special steel and common steel experiencing growth [19][20]. - The non-ferrous metals industry index surged by 65.71% during the same period, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 52.53 percentage points, indicating strong overall sector performance [19][20]. - In terms of revenue, the steel industry reported a total of 14,252.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.18%, but with a notable recovery in net profit [27][34]. - The non-ferrous metals sector achieved a revenue of 28,220.96 billion yuan in the same period, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.30%, with substantial increases in net profit across various sub-sectors [34][38]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining an "overweight" rating on companies such as Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, reflecting confidence in their performance amid favorable market conditions [3][11].