Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in China [6] Core Insights - The focus remains on the combination of IO (Immuno-Oncology) and ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates), with significant advancements expected in their joint application [10][11] - The year 2026 is identified as a critical year for the combination of IO and ADC, with expectations for increased demand for ADCs, particularly in the context of various cancer treatments [11][41] Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Second-Generation IO and ADC - Merck's sac-TMT is a strategic focus, with 16 ongoing Phase III clinical trials, particularly in gynecological cancers [14][15] - AstraZeneca has 8 ADCs in clinical stages, with significant data readouts expected in 2026 [19][20] - Pfizer is advancing 4 Phase III clinical trials for its PD-1/VEGF dual antibody SSGJ-707, highlighting its strategic importance in oncology [26][27] - Johnson & Johnson aims to become the leading oncology company by 2030, focusing on multiple myeloma and various cancers [30] - Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) is advancing its PD-L1/VEGF dual antibody and oral CELMoD therapies, with significant data catalysts expected in 2026 [32][33] - Roche is focusing on breast cancer, with its oral SERD Giredestrant expected to be approved soon [37][38] Section 2: The Year of IO+ADC Combination - The combination of IO and ADC is seen as a key development direction, with various clinical trials underway [41] - The first-generation IO+ADC combinations are competitive, with sac-TMT emerging as a significant player [42] - The second-generation IO combined with chemotherapy is led by AK112, with multiple milestones expected in the coming years [47] - The second-generation IO combined with ADC is still in early exploration, with AstraZeneca leading the way [49] Section 3: Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report identifies several investment targets, including Kangfang Biotech, 3SBio, and others, highlighting their potential in the oncology sector [11][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in China [6] Core Insights - The focus remains on the combination of IO (Immuno-Oncology) and ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates), with significant advancements expected in their joint applications [10][11] - The year 2026 is identified as a critical year for the confirmation of IO combined with ADC, with expectations for increased demand for ADCs, particularly in the context of various cancer treatments [11][41] Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Second-Generation IO and ADC - Merck's sac-TMT is a strategic focus, with 16 ongoing Phase III clinical trials, particularly in gynecological tumors [14][15] - AstraZeneca has 8 ADCs in clinical stages, with significant data readouts expected in 2026 [19][20] - Pfizer is advancing 4 Phase III trials for its PD-1/VEGF dual antibody SSGJ-707, highlighting its strategic importance in oncology [26][27] - Johnson & Johnson aims to become the leading oncology company by 2030, focusing on multiple myeloma and other cancers [30] - Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) is advancing its PD-L1/VEGF dual antibody with multiple ongoing trials [32] Section 2: Confirming the Year of "IO+ADC" Combination - The combination of IO and ADC is seen as a key development direction, with various clinical trials underway [41] - The first-generation IO combined with ADC is competitive, with sac-TMT emerging as a significant player [42] - The second-generation IO combined with chemotherapy is led by AK112, with multiple milestones expected in the coming years [47] - The second-generation IO combined with ADC is still in early exploration, with AstraZeneca leading the way [49] Section 3: Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report identifies several investment targets, including Kangfang Biotech, 3SBio, and others, emphasizing their potential in the oncology sector [11][56]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable outlook for mid-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals, as well as manufacturing sectors like engineering machinery [6][16]. Core Insights - The anticipated changes are beneficial for mid-cap blue chips, with recent events catalyzing interest in cyclical industries and manufacturing, aligning with the market's shift towards a more balanced risk appetite [6][16]. - Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals, defense and military industry, and machinery equipment, with a noted strengthening trend in these areas [20][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Expected Changes Favoring Mid-Cap Blue Chips - Liquidity expectations have improved, leading to intensified trading activity, driven by rising optimism regarding interest rate cuts following the potential election of BlackRock's Riedel as Fed Chair, with a probability of 54% [9][11]. - Significant price increases in typical petrochemical products such as butadiene rubber, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have enhanced profitability expectations for refining companies [11][12]. - China's engineering machinery exports surged to USD 6.417 billion in December 2025, a 27.2% year-on-year increase, supported by more active participation in Belt and Road Initiative projects [12][15]. - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, particularly in major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [15][27]. 2. Trading Dynamics - The report notes that while the overall market sentiment for large-cap stocks has declined, mid-cap and small-cap stocks exhibit stable short-term sentiment with decreasing medium-term uncertainty, suggesting potential for small-cap stocks to catch up [17][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trading behavior through asset volatility, indicating that changes in volatility reflect shifts in trading sentiment [17][20]. 3. Sector Rotation - The report highlights a strengthening trend in cyclical sectors related to mid-cap blue chips, particularly non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, while the real estate sector shows weakening reversal signals [20][21][27]. - Short-term sentiment and medium-term uncertainty for non-ferrous metals, defense, and petrochemical sectors are both on the rise, indicating potential investment opportunities [23][26].

资产配置 | 定期报告 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 28 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-63326320 | | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | | 美/日风险评价上升，贵金属及低风险特征 | 2026-01-26 | | --- | --- | | 权益占优：20260126 多资产配置周报 | | | CTA 策略仍强，指增和中性策略回暖： | 2026-01-22 | | 20260119 多策略及理财配置周报 | | | 风偏继续向中间集中：20260119 多资产配 | 2026-01-20 | | 置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | 国内风险评价稳步下行，A 股/商品占优： | 2026-01-13 | | 20260112 多资产配 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The impact of corporate foreign exchange settlement with banks on the capital market is slightly negative, while banks' foreign exchange settlement with the central bank significantly benefits the capital market. Attention should be paid to changes in the central bank's operations. Foreign exchange settlement can relieve the pressure of insufficient general deposits in banks and support certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates. The key influencing factors are the rhythm of banks' foreign exchange settlement with the central bank and changes in the central bank's investment scale [5][8][10]. - Last week, the bond market continued its recovery, with interest rates, especially long - term yields, dropping rapidly. The stock market sentiment was suppressed, and the central bank's net investment was large. Short - term trading was crowded initially, and then institutions shifted to long - term bonds, driving down long - term interest rates [5][41]. - In terms of high - frequency data, most production - side operating rates declined, demand - side indicators such as passenger car sales and real estate transactions were weak, and price trends were mixed [5][48][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - The impact of foreign exchange settlement on the capital market and CD interest rates is positive. Theoretically, as long as the proportion of banks' foreign exchange settlement with the central bank exceeds the legal deposit reserve ratio (currently 6.3%), foreign exchange settlement benefits the capital market. The actual data also shows a correlation where more foreign exchange settlement leads to a looser capital market [5][10][12]. - Foreign exchange settlement increases the general deposit scale of banks, relieves CD financing pressure, and thus supports CD interest rates [10]. 3.2 This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market - This week, China will release January PMI. The US, Canada, and the Eurozone will also announce relevant economic data and central bank decisions [13][14]. - This week, the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is expected to be around 609.3 billion yuan, including 439.3 billion yuan of local bonds and about 170 billion yuan of policy - bank bonds, with no planned issuance of national bonds [14][16]. 3.3 Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.3.1 High - Level Open - Market Operations - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a high investment scale. Reverse repurchase investment first increased and then decreased, with a total investment of about 1.18 trillion yuan and a net investment of 229.5 billion yuan. MLF had a maturity of 200 billion yuan last week, and 900 billion yuan was invested, maintaining a high net investment in medium - and long - term liquidity. Considering the maturity of treasury deposits of 150 billion yuan, the total net investment in open - market operations last week was 979.5 billion yuan [20][22]. - The capital market fluctuated significantly, with capital interest rates mostly rising. Repurchase trading volume fluctuated, and overnight interest rates and DR007 both increased [22][23]. - CD prices adjusted according to the market, and secondary yields dropped rapidly. The net financing of CDs last week was - 116.9 billion yuan. The proportion of medium - term CDs increased, and long - term proportions decreased. Secondary yields of most CDs declined [29]. 3.3.2 Continued Sharp Decline in Bond Market Interest Rates - Last week, the bond market's recovery sentiment continued, with long - term yields dropping rapidly. The 10 - year treasury bond and CDB active bonds decreased by - 1.1bp and - 2.9bp respectively compared to the previous week. Most yields of interest - rate bonds at various maturities declined, except for the 1 - year treasury bond, which rebounded by about 4bp. The 10 - year CDB bond yield had the largest decline, about 4.2bp [5][41]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most operating rates declined, including blast furnace, PTA, and asphalt operating rates, while the semi - steel tire operating rate increased. The daily average crude steel output in early January had a narrowing year - on - year decline [48]. - On the demand side, passenger car wholesale and retail sales continued to have a large year - on - year decline. The real estate market was weak, with a significant year - on - year decline in the transaction area of commercial housing. Export indices also decreased [48]. - In terms of prices, crude oil prices continued to rise, copper and aluminum prices diverged, and coal prices showed different trends. The prices of mid - stream building materials declined, and the prices of downstream consumer products such as vegetables and pork showed different changes [49].

客流回暖，股东回馈拉动淡季，运力有望 改善 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到 25 全年收入偏弱，运力和交通还需一定时间释放，我们调整 2025-2027 年 EPS 预测为 0.45/0.54/0.61 元（此前为 25-26 年为 0.63/0.69 元），根据可比公司 26 年 32 倍 PE 对应目标价 17.28 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 若宏观出行需求不及预期、极端天气/运力约束影响旺季接待，或茶业等新业务推进与盈 利转化慢于预期，可能导致收入与利润修复不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,045 | 1,013 | 973 | 1,034 | 1,090 | | 同比增长 (%) | 142.3% | -3.0% | -4.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 135 | 218 | 230 | 285 | 334 | | 同比增长 (%) | 168.4% | 61 ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 于震荡中护慢牛，自中盘处取超额 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 27 日 朝闻道 20260128 市场策略 于震荡中护慢牛，自中盘处取超额 风格策略 中盘蓝筹压舱，科技成长轮动 行业策略 电子：算力需求强劲，AI 投资机会由点及面 主题策略 锂电设备：储能需求高增，行业扩产延续 风险提示 全球地缘政治的不确定性、宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利等风险 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 陈寒梅 执业证书编号：S0860525100003 chenhanmei@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 震荡依旧，结构为王：朝闻道 20260126 2026-01-25 慢牛预期强化，把握中盘蓝筹：朝闻道 20260123 2026-01-21 指数维持震荡，方向还在中盘蓝筹：朝闻 道 20260121 2026-01-20 ⚫ 目前市场值得关注的特征是内稳外乱下的风险评价分化，对大势而言，主基调仍然 会维持横盘震荡，略微走强。内稳外乱 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.28 yuan based on a 32x PE ratio for 2026 [3][10][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a recovery in visitor traffic, supported by shareholder return policies that are boosting off-season performance. Improvements in transportation capacity are expected to enhance long-term visitor numbers [2][9]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards due to anticipated weak performance, with EPS estimates revised to 0.45, 0.54, and 0.61 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][10]. - The company has completed a board restructuring and is advancing its tea tourism strategy, which is expected to provide additional revenue streams [9]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials are as follows: - Revenue (million yuan): 1,045 in 2023, 1,013 in 2024, 973 in 2025, 1,034 in 2026, and 1,090 in 2027, with a year-on-year growth of 142.3% in 2023, but a decline of 4.0% in 2025 [5][14]. - Operating profit (million yuan): 135 in 2023, increasing to 334 in 2027, with a significant growth of 168.4% in 2023 [5][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): 228 in 2023, projected to reach 323 in 2027, reflecting a growth of 256.2% in 2023 [5][14]. - EPS: 0.43 in 2023, expected to stabilize at 0.45 in 2025 and grow to 0.61 in 2027 [5][14]. - Gross margin: 49.7% in 2023, expected to improve to 51.6% by 2027 [5][14]. - Net margin: 21.8% in 2023, projected to increase to 29.6% in 2027 [5][14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market had a good performance last week except for a significant valuation correction on Tuesday. The high sentiment in the equity market remains the biggest support for convertible bonds, and there was a behavior of bargain - hunting allocation on Tuesday [6][9]. - As the number of convertible bonds below 130 yuan decreases, convertible bonds enter the deep - water area. High valuations are expected to continue in an equity bull market, but potential losses from valuation fluctuations should be watched out for. If there was under - allocation before, it is recommended to wait for a correction to make allocations. Attention should be paid to newly issued convertible bonds, those whose redemption is waived, and those whose shareholders have not yet reduced their holdings [6][9]. - The sentiment in the equity market remained high last week. Although the proportion of margin trading purchases declined significantly under the margin policy, the central bank's targeted interest rate cut and a net MLF injection of 70 billion yuan in January supplemented market liquidity. The overall performance was similar to the past two weeks, with small - and medium - cap stocks remaining strong and heavy - weight stocks facing significant selling pressure. External events suppressed overseas markets, increasing the attractiveness of RMB assets. A - shares rose against the trend in the global market last week. In the medium - to - long term, the upward logic remains unchanged, but in the short term, there is a continuous game between regulators and the market regarding heavy - weight value and growth themes. A sideways shock with a slight upward trend is expected, and the two - end market of technology + dividends will shift to mid - cap blue - chips [6][9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views: Convertible Bond Fluctuations Are Not Weaker Than Underlying Stocks, Grasp the Trading Rhythm in the Valuation Deep - Water Area - The convertible bond market had a good performance last week except on Tuesday when the valuation corrected sharply. The valuation shows a trend of rapid decline and slow rise. The high - sentiment equity market supports convertible bonds, and there was bargain - hunting on Tuesday [9]. - With fewer convertible bonds below 130 yuan, they enter the deep - water area. High valuations may continue in a bull market, but valuation risks should be noted. Wait for a correction to allocate if under - allocated before. Focus on newly issued, redemption - waived, and non - shareholder - reduced convertible bonds [9]. - The equity market was high - spirited last week. Despite the drop in margin trading purchases, central bank policies supplemented liquidity. Small - and medium - cap stocks were strong, heavy - weight stocks faced selling pressure. A - shares rose against the global trend. In the short term, there is a game between regulators and the market, and the market is expected to shift to mid - cap blue - chips [9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Slight Decline in Trading Volume, Valuation Continues to Rise 2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Closed Higher, Trading Volume Declined - The equity market cooled slightly last week. Most broad - based indexes rose, such as the CSI 500 (up 4.34%), CSI 2000 (up 4.04%), etc., while the ChiNext Index (down 0.34%), CSI 300 (down 0.62%), and SSE 50 (down 1.54%) fell. Construction materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel led the rise in industries, while banking, communication, and non - bank finance led the decline. The average daily trading volume decreased significantly from 3.46227 trillion yuan to 2.8 trillion yuan [12]. - The top ten rising convertible bonds last week were Jiamei Convertible Bond, Fuxin Convertible Bond, etc. In terms of trading volume, Jiamei Convertible Bond, Fuxin Convertible Bond, etc. were more active [12]. 2.2 Slight Decline in Convertible Bond Trading Volume, Good Performance of Medium - and Low - Rated, High - Price Convertible Bonds - Convertible bonds rose significantly last week. The 100 - yuan premium rate decreased and then reached a new high, and the average daily trading volume decreased to 87.919 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.92%, the median conversion price increased 4.5% to 110.8 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate decreased 0.9% to 32.2%. Medium - and low - rated, high - price convertible bonds led the rise, while high - rated, large - cap convertible bonds performed weakly [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [6]. Core Insights - Recent signs of recovery in certain cities' transaction volumes should not be hastily interpreted as a definitive market stabilization. The report highlights two types of policies that may influence the market: interest rate cuts and direct financial support for distressed entities [1][2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has introduced measures to enhance urban renewal policies, which include a flexible five-year transition period for revitalizing existing assets [3]. - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a narrowing decline in new housing sales for 2025, with a reported sales area of 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, and a sales value of 8.4 trillion yuan, down 12.6% [4]. Summary by Sections Market Recovery - Some core cities, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, have shown significant increases in second-hand housing transactions, with Shanghai's sales exceeding 16,000 units for three consecutive months and Shenzhen's sales reaching 4,000 units in January, reflecting a year-on-year decline narrowing to 9% [2]. Policy Impact - The report anticipates that the market's recovery may be influenced by several factors, including previous price declines leading to panic selling, preemptive demand due to the late timing of the Spring Festival, and a positive wealth effect from the stock market [2]. Sales and Construction Data - The report notes that the decline in new housing sales is expected to continue, with a projected decrease in new construction area by 20.4% in 2025, although the decline is slightly less than in 2024. The completion area is also expected to drop by 18.1% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment opportunities: high-quality developers with low historical burdens, commercial real estate operators benefiting from a "Matthew Effect," and real estate brokerage platforms that leverage scale and brand advantages [5].