日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-17 宏观策略（黄金） 鲍威尔表示关税政策"极有可能"刺激通胀暂时上升 金价大涨再创新高，美股再度显著下挫，关税问题仍然是市场 交易的主逻辑，避险情绪推动资金持续流入黄金，做多交易更 加拥挤。美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话进一步打压了市场情绪。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） H20 芯片因美国出口限制面临 55 亿美元费用 综 英伟达芯片出口受限，未来盈利增长恐受到冲击，鲍威尔释放 鹰派信息，市场风险偏好再度恶化。 鲍威尔表示关税政策"极有可能"刺激通胀 暂时上升 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 中国 2025 年一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.4% 报 在双降预期未被证伪之前，市场整体处于多头行情之中。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 中国 1-3 月基础设施投资同比增长 5.8% 钢价再度回落，美国对华关税提升，导致市场对贸易谈判的前 景再度转向相对悲观。同时经济数据显示建材需求延续疲弱， 在 5 月外需风险可能显现的情况下，钢价仍弱势运行。 有色金属（锌） 罗平锌电 2025 年计划生产锌锭 8 万吨 近期做空需要重点关注地缘方面潜在的利多可能，同 ...

洁美科技 002859.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 营收稳健增长，离型膜放量在即 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 0.69/0.91/1.23 元（原 25 年预测为 1.17 元， 主要下调收入及毛利率预测，上调研发费用率预测），根据可比公司 25 年 30 倍 PE 估值水平，对应目标价为 20.70 元，维持给予买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 下游需求复苏不及预期、客户拓展不及预期、国产化率不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,572 | 1,817 | 2,268 | 2,743 | 3,301 | | 同比增长 (%) | 20.8% | 15.6% | 24.8% | 21.0% | 20.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 286 | 216 | 332 | 435 | 591 | | 同比增长 (%) | 60.9% | -24.5% | 53.5% | 31.2% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.47 CNY, based on a 33x PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 [2][4]. Core Views - The company's profitability is under pressure in 2024, with a projected revenue decline of 4.3% to 2.026 billion CNY and a net profit drop of 27% to 229 million CNY. However, there is an expectation for demand recovery in 2025, which could lead to gradual performance improvement [2][8]. - The company is focusing on dual drivers for growth, emphasizing technological advancements and expanding service capabilities, particularly in emerging industries [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 2,117 million CNY - 2024: 2,026 million CNY (down 4.3%) - 2025: 2,455 million CNY (up 21.2%) - 2026: 2,883 million CNY (up 17.4%) - 2027: 3,476 million CNY (up 20.6%) [3][11] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 314 million CNY - 2024: 229 million CNY (down 27.0%) - 2025: 298 million CNY (up 30.1%) - 2026: 372 million CNY (up 24.5%) - 2027: 497 million CNY (up 33.6%) [3][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.62 CNY - 2024: 0.45 CNY - 2025: 0.59 CNY - 2026: 0.73 CNY - 2027: 0.98 CNY [3][11] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: - 2023: 45.6% - 2024: 44.5% - 2025: 44.2% - 2026: 44.2% - 2027: 44.4% [3][11] - Net Margin: - 2023: 14.8% - 2024: 11.3% - 2025: 12.2% - 2026: 12.9% - 2027: 14.3% [3][11] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: - 2023: 26.8 - 2024: 36.7 - 2025: 28.2 - 2026: 22.7 - 2027: 17.0 [3][11] - Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio: - 2023: 3.3 - 2024: 3.2 - 2025: 2.8 - 2026: 2.6 - 2027: 2.3 [3][11]

洁美科技 002859.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 营收稳健增长，离型膜放量在即 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 0.69/0.91/1.23 元（原 25 年预测为 1.17 元， 主要下调收入及毛利率预测，上调研发费用率预测），根据可比公司 25 年 30 倍 PE 估值水平，对应目标价为 20.70 元，维持给予买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 下游需求复苏不及预期、客户拓展不及预期、国产化率不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,572 | 1,817 | 2,268 | 2,743 | 3,301 | | 同比增长 (%) | 20.8% | 15.6% | 24.8% | 21.0% | 20.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 286 | 216 | 332 | 435 | 591 | | 同比增长 (%) | 60.9% | -24.5% | 53.5% | 31.2% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 22.11 CNY based on a projected EPS of 2.01, 2.16, and 2.41 CNY for 2025-2027 respectively [4][7]. Core Views - The company's main products are still experiencing a bottoming out in market conditions, but the profitability is supported by the fertilizer and new materials segments, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [11]. - The company achieved a revenue of 34.226 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.6%, and a net profit of 3.903 billion CNY, up 9.1% year-on-year [11]. - The report highlights that the chemical industry is currently at a low point in the economic cycle, but the company is leveraging its advantages in product offerings to improve performance [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 27.26 billion CNY in 2023, 34.226 billion CNY in 2024, and expected growth to 35.96 billion CNY in 2025, 40.608 billion CNY in 2026, and 41.734 billion CNY in 2027 [6]. - The company's gross profit margin is projected to improve from 18.7% in 2024 to 21.3% in 2025, while the net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 11.9% in 2025 [6]. - The report indicates a significant decrease in operating profit in 2023, down 41.8% year-on-year, but forecasts a recovery with a projected increase of 18.6% in 2025 [6].

华鲁恒升 600426.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 | 盈利基本盘扎实，新材料项目贡献增长 | | --- | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 目前公司主要产品景气仍在持续磨底，我们根据产品价格及价差情况对公司营收和 利润进行调整，我们预测公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 2.01、2.16、2.41 元（原 25 年预测为 2.60 元），根据可比公司 25 年 11 倍市盈率，给以公司目标价 22.11 元 并维持买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 产品和原材料价格波动风险；项目建设不及预期风险。 | 公司主要财务信息 | | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 27,260 | 34,226 | 35,960 | 40,608 | 41,734 | | 同比增长 (%) | -9.9% | 25.6% | 5.1% | 12.9% | 2.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4,428 | 5,008 | 5,942 | 6,35 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 117.25 CNY based on a projected average PE of 67 for comparable companies in 2025 [2][5][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in earnings per share (EPS), with projections of 1.75 CNY, 2.52 CNY, and 3.29 CNY for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively, reflecting adjustments in main business revenue [2][11]. - The company has experienced a substantial increase in revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue reaching 3.64 billion CNY (up 59% year-on-year) and net profit at 1.41 billion CNY (up 213% year-on-year) [10]. - The company is a leader in the DDR5 memory interface chip market, with its DDR5 chip shipments surpassing those of DDR4, indicating a strong competitive position [10]. Financial Information Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 2.29 billion CNY in 2023 to 9.65 billion CNY by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -38%, 59%, 50%, 37%, and 30% respectively [4]. - **Profitability**: Operating profit is expected to increase from 472 million CNY in 2023 to 4.24 billion CNY in 2027, with significant growth rates of -67%, 199%, 52%, 47%, and 34% [4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 451 million CNY in 2023 to 3.77 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of -65%, 213%, 42%, 44%, and 31% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share**: EPS is projected to increase from 0.39 CNY in 2023 to 3.29 CNY in 2027 [4]. - **Margins**: The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 61.5% by 2027, while the net margin is projected to be approximately 39.1% [4].

新签订单快速增长，自研创新积极推进 ——阳光诺和 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到行业景气度波动导致订单价格及毛利率水平下降，我们下调公司营业收入及 利润水平，预测公司 2025-2026 年每股收益分别为 1.98、2.36 元（原预测值为 3.58、4.35 元），并新增预测 2027 年每股收益为 2.95 元。根据 PE 估值法，参考可 比公司估值水平，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年的 29 倍市盈率，对 应目标价为 57.42 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 研发进展不及预期的风险，销售不及预期的风险，行业竞争加剧的风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 932 | 1,078 | 1,315 | 1,520 | 1,753 | | 同比增长 (%) | 37.8% | 15.7% | 22.0% | 15.6% | 15.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 194 | 1 ...

家用产品表现亮眼，海外稳健增长 ——普门科技 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 24 年报，我们下调收入预测，上调毛利率预测，预测公司 25-27 年 EPS 分 别为 0.91/1.06 /1.18 元（前值为 2025 年 1.19 元，2026 年 1.51 元）。基于可比公 司估值，给予 25 年 19 倍 PE，目标价为 17.29 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 研发进展不及预期的风险，产品销售不及预期的风险，行业竞争加剧的风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,146 | 1,148 | 1,294 | 1,465 | 1,650 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.5% | 0.2% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 12.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 345 | 378 | 413 | 492 | 547 | | 同比增长 (%) | 34.6% | 9.5% | 9.3 ...

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