2025 年 12 月 24 日 行业研究 六氟博弈长单涨价，看好锂电材料反弹 ——碳中和领域动态追踪（一百六十六） 要点 从周期角度来看，价格与盈利仍处于向上阶段。临近材料厂与下游电池厂谈定 26Q1 长协的关键时期，长协定价从较长周期变化为月度谈价或者 M-1 价格联动 机制，反映上游供需紧张程度与上下游议价能力差异的矛盾，材料环节当前的投 资回收期仍较长，难以刺激扩产以匹配下游需求增速。复盘 6F 公司历史 PB， 相关公司股价仍有向上弹性。 需求向好预期下，锂电材料各环节均有供需改善趋势。锂电投资逻辑主要博弈长 单价格和国内储能 2026 年排产需求预期，考量供需缺口的变化趋势，只要需求 趋势仍在，供需缺口就难以弥合，锂电供需好转、震荡向上趋势确立。供给端， 关注供给变数较大的锂矿及盈利尚不支持扩产隔膜、铜铝箔的投资机会，推荐排 序：碳酸锂>6F>铝箔>隔膜>铜箔>负极，6F/VC 供需关系取决于龙头扩产节奏与 挺价博弈，但由于较高的辨识度使其仍成为锂电涨价首选配置方向。 投资建议：后续需关注锂电材料谈价落地情况、锂电排产、26Q1 需求的持续性。 建议关注锂电及储能龙头、供需改善带来涨价弹性更大的材 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4][6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in performance due to asset impairment, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 at 1.32 billion yuan, down 24.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.41 million yuan, down 75.2% year-on-year [1][15]. - The FPSO market is expected to remain robust, particularly in South America, with a projected market size of USD 13.06 billion in 2025, growing to USD 19.65 billion by 2030, representing a CAGR of 8.51% from 2025 to 2030 [2][24]. - The company has secured significant contracts, enhancing its engineering and construction capabilities, including a recent FPSO project contract worth approximately USD 190-240 million [3][37]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 23.41 million yuan, down 75.2% year-on-year. The gross margin improved slightly to 15.11%, up 0.16 percentage points year-on-year [1][15][17]. - The company recognized asset impairment losses of 80.63 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly higher than the 20.70 million yuan recognized in the same period last year [1][17]. Market Outlook - The global FPSO market is entering a growth cycle, with South America leading in demand. Brazil's national oil company plans to invest approximately USD 91.5 billion over the next five years, focusing on deepwater oil fields [2][28]. - The FPSO market is projected to see the delivery of 48 new units from 2024 to 2028, with South America and Africa being the primary regions for demand [24][28]. Contract Acquisition and Capabilities - The company has deepened its collaboration with FPSO contractors like SBM and MODEC, securing multiple large contracts since 2018. A recent contract signed in October 2025 with MODEC and others is valued at approximately USD 190-240 million [3][37]. - The company is recognized for its modular construction capabilities, having developed a strong reputation for timely delivery and quality, which has led to multiple safety and quality awards from clients [3][37]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to asset impairment impacts, the profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 49 million yuan and 159 million yuan, respectively. The forecast for 2027 is set at 329 million yuan [4][41]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability as the overseas oil service market remains strong and key FPSO projects progress smoothly [4][41].

Economic Growth - The annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 is +4.3%, exceeding expectations of +3.3% and the previous value of +3.8%[1] - The annualized quarterly personal consumption expenditure growth rate for Q3 2025 is +3.5%, higher than the expected +2.7% and the previous +2.5%[1] - The core PCE price index for Q3 2025 shows an annualized quarterly growth rate of +2.9%, matching expectations and up from +2.6% in the previous quarter[1] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence index rose to 61.7 in July 2025, the highest since March 2025, contributing to a recovery in personal consumption[3] - The Q3 2025 personal consumption expenditure growth rate of +3.5% is the highest recorded in 2025, indicating a rebound in consumer spending[3] Investment Trends - Private investment in Q3 2025 recorded a quarterly growth rate of -0.3%, an improvement from -13.8% in the previous quarter[4] - Fixed investment growth rate for non-residential investment is +2.8%, while residential investment continues to decline at -5.1%[4] Net Exports - The "import rush" effect has weakened, with imports showing a negative growth rate of -4.7% in Q3 2025, while exports increased by +8.8%[6] - Net exports contributed 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth in Q3 2025, driven by improved export demand from trade negotiations[6] Market Reactions - Following the economic data release, major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up by +0.2%, S&P 500 by +0.5%, and Nasdaq by +0.6%[2] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.18%, while the 2-year yield rose by 4 basis points to 3.48%[2]

Core Insights - The report highlights that ABN products currently do not exhibit significant premium compared to other asset-backed securities, but they still maintain a yield spread advantage over certain ordinary credit bonds, making them a viable option for enhancing returns in a market with scarce high-yield assets [2] - ABN products generally experience lower valuation volatility than ordinary credit bonds, providing a degree of resilience against overall industry shocks, which aids in optimizing portfolio stability [2] Market Overview - The A-share market showed a trend of initial decline followed by recovery, with major indices experiencing a contraction in trading volume compared to the previous week. The net inflow of funds into equity ETFs reached 55.353 billion yuan, with large-cap thematic ETFs being the primary direction for net inflows [3] - Following the Central Economic Work Conference in December, market trading sentiment has improved, and the funding situation has shown continuous improvement, laying a foundation for further market upward movement [3] Market Data Summary - The closing values and percentage changes for major indices are as follows: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3919.98 (+0.07%) - CSI 300: 4620.73 (+0.20%) - Shenzhen Component Index: 13368.99 (+0.27%) - ChiNext Index: 3205.01 (+0.41%) [4] - In the commodity market, gold closed at 1014.24 (+1.34%), while copper and zinc showed slight declines [4] Valuation and Rating System - The report outlines a rating system for companies and industries, with categories ranging from "Buy" (expected return exceeding 15% over 6-12 months) to "Sell" (expected return lagging by over 15%) [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights that ABN products currently do not exhibit significant premium compared to other asset-backed securities, but they still maintain a yield spread advantage over certain ordinary credit bonds, making them a viable option for enhancing returns in a market with scarce high-yield assets [2] - ABN products generally experience lower valuation volatility than ordinary credit bonds, providing a degree of resilience against overall industry shocks, which can help optimize the stability of investment portfolios [2] Market Overview - The A-share market showed a trend of initial decline followed by recovery, with major indices experiencing a slight increase in trading volume compared to the previous week. The net inflow of funds into equity ETFs reached 55.353 billion yuan, with large-cap thematic ETFs being the primary direction for net inflows [3] - Following the Central Economic Work Conference in December, market trading sentiment has improved, and the funding environment has shown continuous improvement, laying a foundation for further market upward movement [3] Market Data Summary - The closing values and percentage changes for major indices are as follows: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3919.98 (+0.07%) - CSI 300: 4620.73 (+0.20%) - Shenzhen Component Index: 13368.99 (+0.27%) - Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Index: 8111.91 (+0.35%) - ChiNext Index: 3205.01 (+0.41%) [4] - In the futures market, the closing values for stock index futures showed positive changes, with IF2601 at 4591.20 (+0.89%) [4] - Commodity market data indicates that gold closed at 1014.24 (+1.34%) and crude oil at 2483 (+1.02%), while copper and zinc experienced slight declines [4] Valuation and Rating System - The report outlines a rating system for companies and industries, categorizing them into five levels: Buy, Accumulate, Neutral, Reduce, and Sell, based on expected investment returns relative to market benchmarks over the next 6-12 months [5]

- **Quantitative sentiment tracking includes volume timing signals** The volume timing signals for major indices as of December 19, 2025, indicate a cautious outlook across all indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext Index, and Beijing 50 Index [22][23] - **Market sentiment indicator: CSI 300 rising stock ratio** The CSI 300 rising stock ratio is calculated as the proportion of constituent stocks with positive returns over the past N days. This indicator captures market sentiment, identifying opportunities during market bottoms and potential risks during overheated phases. As of December 19, 2025, the indicator rose above 60%, reflecting high market sentiment [23][24] - **CSI 300 rising stock ratio timing strategy** The timing strategy smooths the indicator using two different windows (N1=50, N2=35). When the short-term smoothed line exceeds the long-term smoothed line, it signals a bullish market outlook. Conversely, when the short-term line falls below the long-term line, it indicates a neutral stance. As of December 19, 2025, the short-term line was below the long-term line, suggesting a cautious market outlook [25][27] - **Moving average sentiment indicator** The moving average sentiment indicator uses eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) to assess the trend state of the CSI 300 Index. The indicator assigns values based on the position of the current price relative to the moving averages. As of December 19, 2025, the CSI 300 Index was in a non-prosperous sentiment zone [31][34] - **Cross-sectional volatility analysis** Cross-sectional volatility for CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices showed mixed trends. Over the past week, CSI 300 volatility decreased, indicating a deteriorating short-term alpha environment, while CSI 500 and CSI 1000 volatility increased, suggesting improved short-term alpha conditions. Quarterly averages for these indices were in the upper-middle range of the past six months, reflecting a favorable alpha environment [35][36] - **Time-series volatility analysis** Time-series volatility for CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased over the past week, indicating an improved alpha environment. Quarterly averages for these indices were also in the upper-middle range of the past six months, suggesting a relatively favorable alpha environment [36][39]

2025 年 12 月 23 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 行业研究 【建材】推动投资止跌回稳，着力扩大有效投资——建材、建筑及基建公募 REITs 半 月报（11 月 29 日-12 月 19 日）(买入) 基建投资下滑，个别细分领域保持较快增长。中央经济工作会议中提出推动投资止跌 回稳；"十五五"期间我国投资仍将保持一定增量，但将更加注重投资效益，重视项 目质量及项目落地，重大工程仍将是传统基建领域的重点。当前我们建议关注：新材 料方向：中国巨石，国恩股份，濮耐股份，科达制造，宏润建设（布局机器人业务）， 洁美科技。基建地产链方向：中国建筑、东方雨虹、海螺水泥。 【房地产】1-11 月百城宅地成交建面同比-15%，成交楼面均价同比+9%——土地市 场月度跟踪报告（2025 年 11 月）(增持) | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3917.36 | 0.69 | | 沪深 300 | 4611.62 | 0.95 | | 深证成指 | 13332.73 | 1.47 | | 中小板指 | 8083.6 | 1.60 | ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative finance[1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the real estate sector [5] Core Insights - In the first 11 months of 2025, the transaction area of residential land in 100 cities decreased by 15% year-on-year, while the average transaction floor price increased by 9% year-on-year [1][20] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve value from January to November 2025 are China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI) with 96.2 billion yuan, China Resources Land with 75.7 billion yuan, and China Merchants Shekou with 75.4 billion yuan [2][89] - The core 30 cities saw a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5% in residential land transaction area, but a 13% increase in average transaction price [2][3] Summary by Sections Land Supply and Demand - In the first 11 months of 2025, the total supply of land in 100 cities decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, with a total transaction area of 10.68 billion square meters [10] - The supply of residential land in 100 cities for January to November 2025 was 348 million square meters, down 16.5% year-on-year, while the transaction area was 221 million square meters, down 15.1% year-on-year [20][1] Land Transaction Prices - The average transaction floor price for residential land in 100 cities increased by 9.4% year-on-year, reaching 6,295 yuan per square meter [1][55] - In November 2025, the average transaction price for residential land in first-tier cities was 39,283 yuan per square meter, up 29.5% year-on-year [66] Top 50 Real Estate Companies' Land Acquisition - The top 50 real estate companies saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 22.1% in new land reserve value, totaling 861.8 billion yuan from January to November 2025 [81] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve area were China Overseas Land & Investment (4.38 million square meters), Poly Developments (3.63 million square meters), and China Merchants Shekou (3.14 million square meters) [89] Core 30 Cities Land Transaction Situation - In November 2025, the core 30 cities recorded a total of 208 residential land transactions, with a total area of 1.529 million square meters, down 14.4% year-on-year [94] - The overall premium rate for land transactions in the core 30 cities was 2.2%, down 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [94] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand reputation and sales performance in core cities, recommending Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Jinmao [4][117] - It also highlights the potential of companies with rich existing resources and operational brand competitiveness, recommending China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [4][117] - The report sees long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jiyu and China Resources Vientiane Life [4][117]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the activation of "medical insurance" through AI in healthcare, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in related sectors such as home medical devices, offline health check-ups, and pharmaceutical retail [2][21][23]. - The report highlights the importance of clinical value in the pharmaceutical sector, advocating for investments in innovative drug chains and medical devices, particularly in light of evolving domestic and international policies [3][26][27]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index fell by 0.14%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.14 percentage points, while outperforming the ChiNext index by 1.39 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sub-industries [1][10][16]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Healthcare Index decreased by 1.77%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 0.19 percentage points [1][10]. R&D Progress - Recent developments include the NDA application for SSGJ-608 by Sanofi, clinical application advancements for vaccines by CanSino and Shiyao Group, and ongoing clinical trials for various drugs by Heng Rui and CanOya [1][31]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three categories of companies: 1. AI + Home Medical Devices, recommending companies like Yuyue Medical and Sinocare [23][25]. 2. AI + Offline Health Check-ups, with a focus on Meinian Health, which has significant data resources for AI model calibration [23][25]. 3. AI + Pharmaceutical Retail, highlighting Alibaba Health and Shuyu Pingmin as key players [23][25]. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, recommending "Buy" for companies like Innovent Biologics, Yifan Biologics, and Mindray Medical [4][28]. Important Company Announcements - Recent announcements include various clinical trial approvals and strategic partnerships among key players in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating ongoing innovation and development [30][31]. Financial Data Updates - Basic medical insurance revenue reached 2,108.6 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, with a monthly income of 227.6 billion yuan in September, reflecting a 15.9% month-on-month increase [34]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported a year-on-year revenue decline of 2.90% for the first ten months of 2025, indicating challenges in the sector [49]. Regulatory and Market Trends - The report notes a structural shift in domestic policies favoring innovative drugs and highlights the increasing global demand for pharmaceuticals driven by aging populations [27][26].