2025 年 4 月 28 日 公司研究 计提资产减值致盈利承压，稳步推进新能源电站建设 ——九洲集团（300040.SZ）2024 年年报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营业收入 14.81 亿元，同比+22.09%， 实现归母净利润-5.45 亿元，同比-678.26%；2024Q4 实现营业收入 5.08 亿元， 同比+24.14%，实现归母净利润-6.18 亿元，同比大幅亏损。 加速推进新能源电站建设，智能配用电业务稳中有增。 2024 年公司积极推进新能源项目开发建设，泰来九洲大型 100MW 风电项目顺 利并网，安达九洲火山 250MW 光伏发电项目、安达九洲石山 250MW 光伏发电 项目开工建设，带动公司新能源工程业务收入同比增长 136.41%至 1.15 亿元， 毛利率同比增长 45.14 个 pct 至 62.62%。公司智能配电网业务 2024 年营业收 入同比增长 20.26%至 4.86 亿元，毛利率同比减少 0.24 个 pct 至 19.87%。 重点布局新能源电站建设和运营，2025 年计划向各子公司增资 10 亿元。 公司持续推进新能源项目投资 ...

2025 年 4 月 28 日 公司研究 三大产业量效齐升，Q1 归母净利润同比增长 18% ——海油发展（600968.SH）2025 年一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：4.01 元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 分析师：王礼沫 执业证书编号：S0930524040002 010-56513142 wanglimo@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 101.65 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 407.62 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 3.51/4.99 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 29.75% | 股价相对走势 -16% -7% 3% 12% 21% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 海油发展 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M ...

2025 年 4 月 28 日 公司研究 业绩分红均超预期，净利率持续改善 ——格力电器（000651.SZ）2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价/目标价：45.22/54.10 元 作者 分析师：洪吉然 执业证书编号：S0930521070002 021- 52523793 hongjiran@ebscn.com 市场数据 -11% 2% 15% 27% 40% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 格力电器 沪深300 点评： 收入分析：国补效应后移至 25Q1。1）24 年消费电器收入 1486 亿元（收入占比 78%，同比-4%），其中 24H1 同比+11%，24H2 同比-18%。24Q4 国补作用后滞， 推测主要系合同负债确认收入的节奏后移所致，24Q3-25Q1 公司单季度收入增速为 -16%/-13%/+14%，产业在线数据显示格力空调 24Q3-25Q1 单季度内销量同比增 速为-20%/+7%/+2%。2）24 年其他业务收入（原材料贸易）203 亿元（收入占比 11%，同比-33%），收入回归合理水平，公司更聚焦主营业务。 盈利分析：归母净利率同比连续 ...

公司研究 汇兑损益影响当期业绩，To C 业务营收占比提升显著 ——润丰股份（301035.SZ）2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：54.72 元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：周家诺 2025 年 4 月 28 日 执业证书编号：S0930523070007 021-52523675 zhoujianuo@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 2.81 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 153.64 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 35.53/63.50 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 23.72% | 股价相对走势 -30% -17% -4% 8% 21% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 润丰股份 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 0.12 | 12.12 | -7.67 | | 绝对 | -3.15 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (9888.HK) with a target price of 128.7 HKD, compared to the current price of 87.60 HKD [4]. Core Insights - Baidu Group's total revenue for Q1 2025 is expected to decline by 1.5% year-on-year to 31.04 billion RMB, while core revenue is projected to grow by 1.4% to 24.14 billion RMB. The core non-GAAP operating profit is anticipated to be 4.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 17.6% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 19.1% [1][2]. - The online marketing business is expected to face continued pressure, with a projected 6.0% decline in online marketing services revenue to 15.98 billion RMB in Q1 2025. However, improvements are anticipated in the first half of 2025 as macroeconomic conditions recover [1][2]. - Non-online marketing revenue is expected to grow significantly, driven by AI and cloud services, with a projected 20.1% year-on-year increase to 8.16 billion RMB in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Summary by Sections Online Marketing Business - The online marketing services revenue is projected to decline by 6.0% to 15.98 billion RMB in Q1 2025, primarily due to insufficient recovery in macroeconomic conditions and weak demand from advertisers [1]. - Baidu is focusing on enhancing AI content quality in search, which is expected to improve user experience and drive commercial growth in the medium term [1]. Non-Online Marketing Business - The non-online marketing business is expected to see a robust growth of 20.1% year-on-year, reaching 8.16 billion RMB in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand for AI-related cloud services [1][2]. - Baidu's cloud business is anticipated to maintain rapid growth, with significant bidding activity in the AI market, positioning it as a leader among domestic large model vendors [1][2]. Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts a decline in non-GAAP net profit for 2025 to 25.1 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 7.05% year-on-year. The target price remains at 128.7 HKD, with a valuation multiple of 10.0x PE for advertising and cloud services [2][3][4].

2025 年 4 月 28 日 公司研究 2024 年公司硅料销量同比减少 1.82%至 19.92 万吨，平均销售价格同比下降约 60%至 3.84 万元/吨（不含税），使得公司新能源产品及工程业务营业收入同比 减少 33.94%至 185.31 亿元，毛利率同比减少 29.94 个 pct 至 1.41%。2024 年 在公司金精粉产品销量增加和黄金产品销售均价上涨的共同作用下，公司黄金业 务营业收入同比高增 187.75%至 11.93 亿元，毛利率同比减少 13.76 个 pct 至 53.70%。审慎起见公司计提多晶硅和自营电站业务相关的资产减值准备共 21.49 亿元，影响公司 2024 年业绩表现。 输变电产业新签订单稳步提升，国际市场开拓卓见成效。 2024 年公司输变电产业各项业务收入规模均保持稳健增长，电气设备/电线电缆 / 输 变 电 成 套 工 程 实 现 营 业 收 入 223.64/156.92/49.31 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 20.98%/15.81%/0.26%。2024 年公司输变电产业国内市场签约 491 亿元，同 比增长约 21%，截至 2024 年底国际成套项目 ...

2025 年 4 月 28 日 公司研究 产品销量减少及资产减值影响业绩，蓬莱项目预计 25H1 投产 ——万润股份（002643.SZ）2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：10.62 元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 股价相对走势 -27% -13% 1% 14% 28% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 万润股份 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -2.66 | 4.74 | -11.26 | | 绝对 | -5.93 | 4.53 | -6.76 | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | 要点 事件 1：公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年，公司实现营收 36.93 亿元，同比减少 14.22%；实现归母净利润 2.46 亿元，同比减少 67.72%；实现扣非后归母净利润 2.02 亿元，同比减少 71.87%。2024Q4，公司单季度实现营收 9. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 89.175 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 31.69 yuan per 10 shares, with a total cash dividend payout of 22.3 billion yuan, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 70% [1]. - The company is focusing on controlling inventory and maintaining prices for its flagship product, with a stable market price for its main brand [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 21.26 billion yuan, a 2.53% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 6.17% to 6.922 billion yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue reached 36.94 billion yuan, up 6.05% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 5.8% to 14.86 billion yuan [1]. Product and Market Strategy - The main brand and other liquor revenues for 2024 were 67.875 billion yuan and 15.251 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.07% and 11.79% [2]. - The company has introduced new products and focused on high-end market segments, with a 30% increase in banquet market activities for the main brand [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 77.05%, with a slight increase from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 35.72% [3]. - Sales expenses increased significantly in 2024 due to higher investments in brand promotion and channel development [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 33.691 billion yuan and 35.896 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 6.7% and 8.6% from previous estimates [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 15 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 9.942 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.584 billion yuan, up 53.59% year-on-year [1]. - The mining resource segment significantly contributed to the performance increase, with revenue reaching 3.21 billion yuan in 2024, a staggering 412.9% increase year-on-year [2]. - The Lonshi copper mine reached full production ahead of schedule, producing 48,700 tons of copper metal in 2024, with plans to increase production to 79,400 tons in 2025, a 63% increase compared to 2024 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 2.972 billion yuan, a 42.35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 491 million yuan, up 52.77% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.811 billion yuan, a 42.49% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 422 million yuan, up 54.10% year-on-year [1]. Mining Resource Segment - The mining resource business generated 3.21 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 42.25%, down 6.12 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - In Q1 2025, the mining resource segment generated 1.3 billion yuan in revenue, a 232.7% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 588 million yuan, up 247.3% year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects net profits of 2.251 billion yuan and 2.812 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a 3% and 12% upward revision [4]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are 10.4X, 8.3X, and 7.0X, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longbai Group (002601.SZ) with a current price of 16.42 CNY [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 was under pressure due to increased asset impairment and financial expenses, but profitability is expected to improve in Q1 2025 as prices recover [1][5][6] - Longbai Group is the largest titanium dioxide producer globally, with a complete industrial chain from mining to processing [7] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards due to the decline in titanium dioxide prices and increased financial costs, but maintains a positive outlook for 2027 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Longbai Group achieved revenue of 27.51 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.80%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.79% to 2.17 billion CNY [4][5] - Q4 2024 saw a revenue of 6.65 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.20%, but a net loss of 395 million CNY, a significant decline compared to the previous year [4][5] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 7.06 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.21%, but net profit recovered to 686 million CNY, indicating a positive trend [4][6] Market Dynamics - The titanium dioxide business generated revenue of 18.98 billion CNY in 2024, with a sales volume of 1.254 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% and 8.3% respectively [5] - The average selling price of titanium dioxide in Q4 2024 decreased by 4.7% quarter-on-quarter and 10.3% year-on-year, impacting the company's gross margin [5][6] Cost Structure and Profitability - The gross margin for the titanium dioxide business was 31.4% in 2024, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, but the overall gross margin in Q4 2024 fell to 19.0% due to price declines [5][6] - Financial expenses surged by 195% year-on-year to 701 million CNY in 2024, with Q4 expenses reaching 399 million CNY [5][6] Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.96 billion CNY, 3.37 billion CNY, and 3.75 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a recovery as market conditions improve [7][9] - The company is actively enhancing its upstream raw material supply to support its production capabilities [7]