证 券 研 究 报 告 南向资金24/08以来首次净流出 ——流动性&交易拥挤度周报 2025年4月29日 | 证券分析师：姚佩 | 执业编号：S0360522120004 | 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：林昊 | 执业编号：S0360523070007 | 邮箱：linhao@hcyjs.com | 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 资金供给 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资金供给主体(亿元) | 上 期 | 本 期 | 近3年分位 | | 偏股型公募新发份额 | 39 | 74 | 81% | | 两融资金净流入 | -57 | -12 | 45% | | 股票型ETF净申购 | 350 | -124 | 8% | | 上市公司回购 | 19 | 23 | 63% | | 合 计 | 332 | -6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][21]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 3.835 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million yuan, up 266.9% year-on-year [1][5]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.118 billion yuan, a 22.0% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 65 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1][5]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.046 billion yuan, up 14.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, reflecting a 15.1% increase [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue growth was driven by significant increases in the cream segment, which saw a 61.8% year-on-year increase, while other segments like frozen baking and sauces experienced declines [1][5]. - The revenue distribution across channels in 2024 was 57% from circulation, 25% from supermarkets, and 18% from catering, with circulation and catering channels showing growth of approximately 15% and 20% respectively [1][5]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.5%, a slight increase from the previous year, while the net profit margin improved to 6.9%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [1][5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in 2025, driven by clear growth drivers such as cream products, Sam's Club, and catering [1][5]. - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to be 1.97 yuan, with further increases to 2.26 yuan in 2026 and 2.59 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1][5]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 49.5 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25 times for 2025 [1][5].

公司发布 2025 年一季报。2025 年 Q1 公司实现营业总收入 104.46 亿元，同比 +2.91%；实现归母净利润 17.1 亿元，同比+7.08%；实现扣非归母净利润 16.03 亿元，同比+5.95%。 评论： 证 券 研 究 报 告 青岛啤酒（600600）2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） Q1 开局良好，旺季提速可期 目标价：90 元、70 港元 事项： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 32,138 | 33,639 | 34,556 | 35,235 | | 同比增速(%) | -5.3% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 4,345 | 4,875 | 5,303 | 5,621 | | 同比增速(%) | 1.8% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 6.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 3.19 | 3.57 | 3.89 | 4.12 | | 市盈率( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][20]. Core Insights - The company's main business is experiencing a strong recovery, and its humanoid robot business is poised for significant growth. The automotive parts segment has solidified its advantages, with a notable increase in profitability. The company has strategically positioned itself in the humanoid robot core components market, achieving domestic substitution and reducing production costs [2][7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 49.10 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.64%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 4.97 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 514.49% [7][8]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 55.78 billion yuan, 65.52 billion yuan, and 78.73 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 13.6%, 17.5%, and 20.2% [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 5.34 billion yuan in 2025, 6.17 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.67 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 7.4%, 15.7%, and 24.3% respectively [3][8]. Business Segment Analysis - The automotive parts business has strengthened its position, with key products like seat horizontal actuators being supplied to major automakers such as BYD and Changan. The company has also made significant advancements in electric drive systems for popular models [7][8]. - The humanoid robot screw business is expected to open a second growth curve, with the company achieving domestic production of key components and establishing a trial production line for 12,000 sets by the end of 2024 [7][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is capitalizing on domestic substitution opportunities and accelerating its global layout, with new subsidiaries established in Thailand and Singapore to enhance supply chain responsiveness and cost advantages [7][8]. - The report highlights the company's strategic moves, including the divestiture of loss-making businesses and the optimization of its cost structure, which has led to improved operating cash flow [7][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】 确定性的基本盘——总量"创"辩第 101 期 宏观 张瑜：以确定性应对不确定性 从经济金融环境看，美方具有高度的不确定性，而中国方面最大的特征就是"确 定性"，其内部最重要的不确定性都已进入化解的下半场，包括房地产、地方 债务、金融机构等。同时，中国政策致力于维护"确定性"，会议通稿中提前强 调"底线思维，充分备足预案，扎实做好经济工作"、"统筹国内经济工作和国 际经贸斗争"等。 对投资的启示是：中国金融市场波动率或会小于美国。 落地视角学习会议精神：具体做法有六大抓手，没有收缩性政策。 大势研判：继续维持当下布局黄金坑的观点。 1、财政"加紧"，货币金融"新工具"。 2、大力发展服务消费：通稿提及"尽快清理消费领域限制性措施，设立服务消 费与养老再贷款"。 3、产业方面帮困助优。通稿提出要多措并举帮扶困难企业；创新推出债券市 场的"科技板"等。 4、改革开放+企业走出去："加大服务业开放试点政策力度，加强对企业'走 出去'的服务。同国际社会一道，积极维护多边主义，反对单边霸凌行径"。 5、地产总体思路依然是控增量+化存量。 6、保民生与就业：底线思维意味着社会托底性 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：牛播坤 电话：010-66500825 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 证券分析师：郭忠良 【资产配置快评】 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 ❖ 投资摘要： If it is right, it happens — The main thing is not to hurry. Nothing good gets away. —John Steinbeck 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2025 年 04 月 28 日 电话：010-66500830 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 18 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-04-21 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 17 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-04-14 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 电动车行业周报（20250421-20250425） 宁德时代全面推出骁遥双核电池，上海车展开幕 电力设备及新能源 2025 年 04 月 28 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：黄麟 邮箱：huanglin1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080001 证券分析师：何家金 邮箱：hejiajin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523010001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 299 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 46,969.09 | 4.85 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 41,286.75 | 5.39 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -8.8% | -11.7% | 3.7% | | 相对表现 | -5.4% | -7.1% | -1.8% | -17% -5% 8% 21% 24/04 24/07 24/09 24/12 25/02 25/04 2 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 皖通高速（600012）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 公路上市公司市值管理典范——看皖通市值 管理"三要素" [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 7,092 | 6,738 | 6,877 | 7,326 | | 同比增速(%) | 6.9% | -5.0% | 2.1% | 6.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,669 | 1,864 | 1,990 | 1,940 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.5% | 11.7% | 6.8% | -2.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.01 | 1.12 | 1.20 | 1.17 | | 市盈率(倍) | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 25 日收盘价 公司研究 公路 2025 年 04 月 28 日 目 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ETF 市场周报（20250421-20250425） ETF 一季报：四大沪深 300ETF 再获汇金增持 ❑ 本周行情复盘：本周主要指数整体收涨，沪深 300：+0.38%，中证 A500：+0.68%， 科创 50：-0.40%，中证 500：+1.20%，上证 50：-0.33%，创业板指：+1.74%， 中证 1000：+1.85%，中证 A50：+0.84%。本周基金收益率：股票指数型基金： +1.12%，跑赢上证指数 0.56pct，跑输普通股票型基金 0.54pct；债券型指数基 金：-0.03%，跑输上证指数 0.59pct。 ❑ 本周动态： （1）证券时报：根据 wind 统计，截至 4 月 22 日一共有 135 只中证 A500 指 数相关基金（不同份额分开统计；包括普通指数基金、指数增强基金、ETF、 ETF 联接基金，统称中证 A500 基金）发布一季报，135 只基金一季度期间的 总申购为 875.04 亿份，总赎回为 1343.68 亿份，净赎回为 468.64 亿份。135 只 基金中有 102 只在一季度被净赎回，占比 75.56%。净赎回 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 2025Q1 保险行业公募持仓分析 公募减配保险，资负多措并举有望带动估值 推荐（维持） 修复 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：陈海椰 邮箱：chenhaiye@hcyjs.com 数据口径：剔除指数型基金持仓数据，基金重仓持股口径。 行业整体：非银金融持仓环比降低，保险、证券均减持。2025Q1 非银金融持仓占比 1.27% （环比-0.2pct），其中保险行业持仓合计 0.75%（环比-0.09pct），证券行业持仓合计 0.38% （环比-0.11pct），多元金融行业持仓占比 0.13%（环比持平）。 1.13% 7.50% 5.55% 4.12% 2.56% 0.25% 0.54% 0.44% 0.27% 0.56% 1.16% 0.84% 0.75% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 2016Q4 2017Q4 2018Q4 2019Q4 2020Q4 2021Q4 2 ...