证 券 研 究 报 告 谢谢谢谢谢寻寻寻 口子窖（603589）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 全年增速回正，改革仍待显效 目标价：40 元 事项： 公司研究 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 6,015 | 5,556 | 5,728 | 5,935 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.9% | -7.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,655 | 1,499 | 1,568 | 1,679 | | 同比增速(%) | -3.8% | -9.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.76 | 2.50 | 2.61 | 2.80 | | 市盈率(倍) | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 风险提示：新品动销不及预期、渠道改革放缓、徽酒竞争加剧。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year growth of 43% in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025, showcasing strong growth potential for the long term [1][6]. - The report highlights the company's robust performance in the wind power sector, particularly in offshore and onshore projects, driven by improved wind conditions in Fujian province [6][7]. - The report anticipates a structural adjustment in the renewable energy sector, particularly in wind and solar power, which could lead to substantial growth opportunities for the company [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 145.63 billion, with a slight decline of 0.9% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to reach 27.93 billion, reflecting a growth of 6.5% [2][6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 1.00 in 2024 to 1.29 by 2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [2][6]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 13.1 yuan, representing a 32% upside from the current price of 9.96 yuan [2][6]. Operational Data - The company’s total installed capacity as of the end of 2024 is approximately 6.096 million kilowatts, with a clean energy generation capacity accounting for 56.35% [6][7]. - The report notes that the company’s market-based electricity trading volume reached 173.88 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, constituting 75.70% of total electricity generated [6][7]. - The company has signed contracts with 400 users for electricity sales, achieving a total sales volume of 10 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024 [6][7]. Growth Projections - The report revises the profit forecast for 2025 to 30.43 billion and for 2026 to 33.70 billion, with a new projection for 2027 at 35.93 billion [6][7]. - The expected growth rates for net profit are 8.9% in 2025, 10.8% in 2026, and 6.6% in 2027, indicating a stable growth outlook [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the offshore wind sector, which is currently underdeveloped, with only 41GW of installed capacity as of 2024 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][20]. Core Insights - The company's main business is experiencing a strong recovery, and its humanoid robot business is poised for significant growth. The automotive parts segment is solidifying its advantages, with a notable increase in profitability. The company has strategically positioned itself in the humanoid robot core components market, achieving domestic substitution and reducing production costs [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 49.10 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.64%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 4.97 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 514.49% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted at 1.24 yuan [3][7]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 55.78 billion yuan, 65.52 billion yuan, and 78.73 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 13.6%, 17.5%, and 20.2%. The net profit for these years is projected to be 5.34 billion yuan, 6.17 billion yuan, and 7.67 billion yuan, with growth rates of 7.4%, 15.7%, and 24.3% [3][7]. Business Segment Analysis - The automotive parts business is consolidating its market position, with key products like seat horizontal actuators being supplied to major automakers such as BYD and Changan. The company has also made significant advancements in electric drive systems for popular models like the Wuling Hongguang MINI [7]. - The humanoid robot screw business is expected to open a second growth curve, with the company achieving domestic production of key components and establishing a trial production line of 12,000 sets by the end of 2024 [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is capitalizing on domestic substitution opportunities in the automotive sector, with its hub bearing products being supplied to leading automakers. Additionally, it is accelerating its global expansion by establishing subsidiaries in Thailand and Singapore, enhancing supply chain responsiveness and cost advantages [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][25]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 69.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, with express logistics revenue at 51.81 billion, up 7.2% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 2.23 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.9% [1]. - The report highlights a continuous improvement in net profit margin, which reached 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Growth**: The company achieved a revenue of 698.5 billion in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. The express logistics segment contributed 518.1 billion, growing 7.2% year-on-year [1]. - **Profitability**: The net profit for Q1 2025 was 22.3 billion, up 16.9% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 3.2%, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [1]. - **Operational Metrics**: The express business volume reached 3.54 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.7%. However, the average revenue per ticket decreased by 10.5% to 14.63 yuan [1]. - **Cost Management**: The gross profit for Q1 2025 was 9.29 billion, with a gross margin of 13.3%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. The operating expense ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 8.9% [1]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a share repurchase plan for A-shares, with a total amount not less than 500 million and not exceeding 1 billion yuan, at a price not exceeding 60 yuan per share [2].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 旭升集团（603305）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 业绩修复、机器人布局同步进行时 目标价：16.4 元 事项： 公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年营收 44.1 亿元、同比-9%，归 母净利 4.16 亿元、同比-42%，扣非归母净利 3.58 亿元、同比-47%；1Q25 营 收 10.5 亿元、同比-8%，归母净利 0.96 亿元、同比-39%，扣非归母净利 0.81 亿元、同比-43%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 4,409 | 5,029 | 6,091 | 6,970 | | 同比增速(%) | -8.8% | 14.1% | 21.1% | 14.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 417 | 521 | 634 | 770 | | 同比增速(%) | -41.7% | 25.2% | 21.6% | 2 ...

评论： 公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 西部矿业（601168）2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 铜量价齐升带动业绩增长，资产减值略有拖累 事项： 铜 2025 年 04 月 29 日 目标价：17.4 元 当前价：15.44 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：马金龙 邮箱：majinlong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120003 证券分析师：刘岗 邮箱：liugang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120002 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 238,300.00 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(万股) | 238,300.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 367.94 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 367.94 | | 资产负债率(%) | 57.57 | | 每股净资产(元) | 7.52 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 21.28/14.26 | 市场表现对比图(近 12 个月) -27% -12% 3% 17% 24/04 24/07 24/09 24/12 25/02 25/04 2024-04-29~2025 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 冠盛股份（605088）2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 1Q25 业绩超预期，固态类电池蓄势待发 目标价区间：41.3-51.6 元 汽车零部件Ⅲ 2025 年 04 月 29 日 当前价：32.20 元 华创证券研究所 事项： 公司发布 2025 年一季报，1Q25 营收 8.9 亿元、同比+19%、环比-21%，归母 净利 0.84 亿元、同比+27%、环比+8.6%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 4,020 | 4,614 | 5,497 | 6,946 | | 同比增速(%) | 26.4% | 14.8% | 19.1% | 26.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 298 | 376 | 449 | 589 | | 同比增速(%) | 4.8% | 26.3% | 19.2% | 31.4% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.64 | 2.07 | 2.46 | 3. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 100 yuan [1][6]. Core Views - The company has shown a pragmatic adjustment in its operations and is actively building momentum for future growth. Despite short-term pressures, the strategic optimization and new product launches are expected to gradually improve the company's fundamentals [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 15.127 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.485 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue reached 4.050 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3%, and the net profit for the same quarter was 438 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 22.8% year-on-year [6][7]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.600 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 395 million yuan, down 10.01% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.15 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 297 million yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.1% for 2024 [6][7]. Product and Channel Performance - The company’s revenue from various product categories in 2024 showed mixed results: - Noodle and rice products decreased by 3.1% - Frozen prepared foods increased by 11.4% - Dishes grew by 10.7% - Agricultural and sideline products fell by 11.7% [6][7]. - In terms of distribution channels, revenue from distributors increased by 8.9%, while supermarkets, direct sales, and e-commerce saw declines of 2.4%, 4.5%, and 2.3% respectively. The new retail channel showed significant growth at 33% [6][7]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied across regions in 2024, with the following year-on-year increases: - Northeast: +7.0% - North China: +5.4% - East China: +6.4% - South China: +9.1% - Central China: +7.4% - Northwest: +13.5% - Southwest: +14.4% [6][7]. Profitability Metrics - The company maintained a gross margin of 23.3% in 2024, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for the year was 9.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin remained at 23.3%, but the net profit margin was 11.0%, reflecting a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year due to increased promotional efforts and a decline in average sales prices [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to recover growth through new products and channels, despite ongoing external demand pressures. The introduction of high-quality, mid-priced products for B-end customers and premium products for C-end customers is anticipated to drive revenue recovery [6][7]. - The EPS forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 5.19, 5.71, and 6.39 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the near term [1][5][21]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 8.315 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.202 billion yuan, up 14.8% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company is expected to achieve close to double-digit growth for the full year 2025, driven by strong performance in new products and effective channel strategies [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 26.901 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.5%. For 2025, revenue is expected to reach 29.595 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.0% growth rate [1][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 6.344 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 7.163 billion yuan in 2025, with respective growth rates of 12.8% and 12.9% [1][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is projected to increase from 1.14 yuan in 2024 to 1.29 yuan in 2025, and further to 1.43 yuan in 2026 [1][10]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 36 times in 2024 to 32 times in 2025, and further down to 29 times in 2026 [1][10]. - **Market Position**: - The company has shown resilience in its market position, with a notable increase in revenue from new product categories, particularly in the condiment segment, which saw a 10.3% year-on-year growth [5][6]. - **Cash Flow**: - The company reported cash receipts of 6.226 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking an 8.0% increase year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow management [5][6]. - **Cost Management**: - The gross margin improved to 40.0% in Q1 2025, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower raw material costs and scale effects [5][6]. - **Regional Performance**: - Revenue growth varied by region, with the southern region showing a 16.1% increase, indicating a strengthening market presence [5][6]. - **Future Outlook**: - The company is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory, supported by strategic initiatives in product development and market expansion [5][6].

证 券 研 究 报 告 南向资金24/08以来首次净流出 ——流动性&交易拥挤度周报 2025年4月29日 | 证券分析师：姚佩 | 执业编号：S0360522120004 | 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：林昊 | 执业编号：S0360523070007 | 邮箱：linhao@hcyjs.com | 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 资金供给 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资金供给主体(亿元) | 上 期 | 本 期 | 近3年分位 | | 偏股型公募新发份额 | 39 | 74 | 81% | | 两融资金净流入 | -57 | -12 | 45% | | 股票型ETF净申购 | 350 | -124 | 8% | | 上市公司回购 | 19 | 23 | 63% | | 合 计 | 332 | -6 ...