24Q1 业绩承压，关注新项目落地及高铁通车 受益于疫后旅游市场高景气，23年景区及酒店板块实现明显复苏。2023年，公 司山水园、南山竹海景区分别实现营收 1.8 亿元、1.5 亿元，同比 2019 年分别 增长 8.7%、7.5%；公司疫情期间布局的酒店陆续爬坡，实现营收 2.1亿元，同 比增长 45.2%。温泉、水世界、旅行社业务分别实现营收 4718.8万元、1271.2 万元、906.6 万元，分别恢复至2019 年同期的 89.1%、80.4%、71.3%。 漂流项目即将落地，预计年底开通的沪苏湖高铁有望使天目湖进入上海"一小 时生活圈"。公司旗下漂流项目预计在今年暑期落地，增加公司盈利点，并且公 司南山小寨二期项目及动物王国项目也在有序推进中。沪苏湖高铁计划于 2024 年底开通运营，届时上海到溧阳高铁交通时间将由 2 小时缩短至 1 小时左右， 天目湖对上海客群的吸引力提升。 风险提示：客流恢复不及预期、行业竞争加剧、门票价格管控、项目建设进度 不及预期等风险。 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 数据来源：聚源数据 [Table_Report] 1. 天目湖（603136）：长三角优质休闲游目 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3][17]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 reached a new high in profits and increased dividends, with a revenue of 630 million yuan, representing a 70.9% increase compared to the previous year and a 25.2% increase compared to 2019. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 147 million yuan, up 623.9% year-on-year and 18.8% compared to 2019 [3][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.36 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 68% and a dividend yield of 2.9% based on the current price [3]. - New project expansions have driven revenue growth compared to 2019, with hotel revenue increasing by 117% compared to 2019, while other business segments remained relatively stable [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its business structure, with hotel revenue accounting for 33% of total revenue in 2023, up from 19% in 2019 [3]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its advantageous location and ongoing development of a one-stop resort destination, with local state-owned assets enhancing resource development and project reception capabilities [17]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported a gross profit margin of 54.3%, an increase of 18.1 percentage points year-on-year, although it decreased by 11.0 percentage points compared to 2019 [3]. - The company's net profit margin was 23.3%, an increase of 17.8 percentage points year-on-year, but a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to 2019 [3]. - The financial forecast for 2024 estimates revenue of 676 million yuan, a 7.3% increase, and a net profit of 159 million yuan, an 8.2% increase [4][11]. Future Outlook - The company is currently facing pressure in Q1 2024 due to seasonal weather factors and consumer environment disturbances, with a revenue of 11 million yuan, down 11.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 10.94 million yuan, down 42.8% [3]. - The company is expected to release the potential of its new projects post-pandemic, with significant developments such as the Pingqiao Drift project and the upcoming opening of the Hushu Lake High-Speed Railway, which will shorten travel times for key customer groups [3][17].

| --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

股 票 研 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------|------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|----------------------|--------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------|------------|-------------------| | | [Table_Title] \n天目湖 (603136) | | | | | [Table_industryInfo] | [Table_Invest] \n评级： | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Reduce" rating, indicating that the company's stock price is expected to decline by more than 10% relative to the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The tourism market is rapidly recovering, and the company has capitalized on this opportunity, achieving record high performance in 2023 with revenue of RMB 630 million, a year-on-year increase of 70.9%, and a net profit of RMB 147 million, a year-on-year increase of 623.9% [15]. - The company's performance in Q1 2024 was impacted by climate conditions, leading to a revenue of RMB 107 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.33%, and a net profit of RMB 11 million, a year-on-year decrease of 42.82% [15][17]. - The company plans to enhance its dividend payout ratio, proposing a cash dividend of RMB 0.536 per share, totaling RMB 100 million, with a dividend payout ratio of 67.93% [15]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 630 million in 2023, RMB 737 million in 2024E, RMB 844 million in 2025E, and RMB 924 million in 2026E, with growth rates of 70.9%, 16.9%, 14.5%, and 9.6% respectively [2]. - The company's EBITDA is projected to be RMB 324 million in 2023, RMB 379 million in 2024E, RMB 458 million in 2025E, and RMB 518 million in 2026E [2]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 0.79 in 2023, RMB 0.93 in 2024E, RMB 1.16 in 2025E, and RMB 1.33 in 2026E [2]. Business Segments Performance - In 2023, the revenue breakdown by business segments is as follows: scenic area RMB 325 million (+108.0%), hotel RMB 207 million (+45.2%), and travel agency RMB 9 million (+25.7%) [15]. - The gross profit margins for the scenic area, hotel, and travel agency segments showed significant recovery, with respective year-on-year increases of 25.1%, 11.4%, and 2.7 percentage points [15]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about future growth driven by new project developments, including the establishment of a rafting project and the completion of the second phase of the Nanshan Xiaozhai project [15][17]. - Despite the short-term challenges due to climate impacts, the long-term outlook remains positive, supported by state-owned capital driving external expansion [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][15]. Core Views - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 630 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 147 million yuan, a significant increase of 623.90% [2][3]. - The company effectively capitalized on the recovery of domestic consumption and tourism markets, implementing marketing strategies and leveraging its one-stop tourism model, resulting in notable operational management success [2][4]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a decline in revenue to 107 million yuan, down 11.33% year-on-year, and a net profit of 10.95 million yuan, down 42.82% year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a significant recovery in 2023, with a gross margin for the scenic area business reaching 71.25%, an increase of 25.06 percentage points from 2022 [4]. - Revenue from the scenic area, water world, hot springs, hotels, and travel agency businesses were 325 million, 1.3 million, 4.7 million, 207 million, and 900 thousand yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 107.95%, -9.50%, 47.71%, 45.24%, and 25.71% [4]. Profit Distribution - The company announced a profit distribution plan for 2023, proposing a cash dividend of 5.36 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) and a capital reserve conversion of 4.5 shares for every 10 shares held [2]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 169 million, 201 million, and 237 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.91, 1.08, and 1.27 yuan, and PE ratios of 21, 18, and 15 times [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to Tianmu Lake (603136 SH) based on its strong recovery in revenue and profitability, supported by the hotel business and new project developments [12] Core Viewpoints - **Revenue and Profit Recovery**: In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 630 million yuan, a 25 2% increase compared to 2019, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 147 million yuan, an 18 8% increase compared to 2019 [12] - **Hotel Business Contribution**: The hotel segment contributed significantly to revenue growth, with a 45% increase in 2023 compared to 2022, generating 207 million yuan in revenue [12] - **Scenic Area Performance**: The scenic area business showed recovery, with revenue from Shanshui Garden and Nanshan Bamboo Sea reaching 179 million yuan and 146 million yuan respectively, up 8 7% and 7 5% compared to 2019 [12] - **New Projects and State-owned Capital Support**: The company is advancing new projects such as the drift project and Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II, with state-owned capital (Liyang Chengfa) becoming the largest shareholder, providing financial and resource support [12] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: Revenue is expected to grow from 630 million yuan in 2023 to 873 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 8 9% [2] - **Net Profit Growth**: Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 147 million yuan in 2023 to 237 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 13 4% [2] - **Gross Margin Improvement**: Gross margin improved significantly from 36 2% in 2022 to 54 3% in 2023, and is expected to reach 58 6% by 2026 [2] - **ROE Improvement**: ROE increased from 1 7% in 2022 to 11 0% in 2023, and is forecasted to stabilize around 12% from 2024 to 2026 [2] Valuation Metrics - **P/E Ratio**: The P/E ratio is expected to decline from 24 24x in 2023 to 15 01x in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [2] - **P/B Ratio**: The P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 2 67x in 2023 to 1 82x in 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation [2] Key Projects and Strategic Initiatives - **Drift Project**: Expected to open in the summer of 2024, targeting the summer tourism market [12] - **Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II and Animal Kingdom Projects**: These projects aim to enrich the company's tourism product portfolio [12] - **Transportation Improvements**: The Shanghai-Suzhou-Huzhou railway, expected to open by the end of 2024, will enhance accessibility for tourists from Shanghai, bringing Tianmu Lake within a one-hour travel radius [12] Industry and Market Position - **Tourism Recovery**: The company benefits from the recovery of the tourism industry, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta region, with strong operational capabilities and a competitive edge in the leisure tourism market [12] - **State-owned Capital Advantage**: The involvement of state-owned capital provides financial stability and resource access, supporting the company's long-term growth [12]

Investment Rating - Buy-A rating with a 6-month target price of 22.02 yuan [5][10] Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 showed significant recovery, with revenue reaching 6.30 billion yuan, up 70.90% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 1.47 billion yuan, up 623.90% YoY [2] - High-margin projects, such as scenic spots and hot spring businesses, drove the recovery, with scenic spot revenue increasing by 107.95% YoY and hot spring revenue increasing by 47.71% YoY [3] - The company's 2024 Q1 performance showed a decline in revenue and net profit, with revenue at 1.07 billion yuan, down 11.33% YoY, and net profit at 0.11 billion yuan, down 42.82% YoY [1] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the recovery of the tourism market, with high-margin businesses driving future growth [10] Financial Performance 2023 Full Year - Revenue: 6.30 billion yuan, +70.90% YoY, recovering to 125.25% of 2019 levels [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 1.47 billion yuan, +623.90% YoY, recovering to 118.55% of 2019 levels [2] - Operating cash flow: 3.16 billion yuan, +177.36% YoY [2] 2024 Q1 - Revenue: 1.07 billion yuan, -11.33% YoY, recovering to 120.22% of 2019 levels [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 0.11 billion yuan, -42.82% YoY, recovering to 73.33% of 2019 levels [1] - Operating cash flow: 0.19 billion yuan, -57.63% YoY [1] Business Segment Performance - Scenic spot business: Revenue of 3.25 billion yuan, +107.95% YoY, with a gross margin of 71.25%, up 25.06 percentage points YoY [3] - Hot spring business: Revenue of 0.47 billion yuan, +47.71% YoY, with a gross margin of 48.41%, up 11.42 percentage points YoY [3] - Hotel business: Revenue of 2.07 billion yuan, +45.24% YoY, with a gross margin of 29.88%, up 5.05 percentage points YoY [3] - Water World business: Revenue of 0.13 billion yuan, -9.50% YoY, with a gross margin of 6.98%, down 8.65 percentage points YoY [3] Cost and Profitability - 2023: Gross margin of 54.34%, up 18.10 percentage points YoY, and net margin of 26.72%, up 20.98 percentage points YoY [4] - 2024 Q1: Gross margin of 38.17%, down 4.25 percentage points YoY, and net margin of 13.01%, down 5.05 percentage points YoY [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 22.2%, 8.7%, and 8.7% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth of 39.5%, 14.2%, and 16.7% [10] - High-margin businesses are expected to drive future growth, with the company focusing on innovation and market expansion [10]

[Table_Title] 23 年业绩如期复苏，但 1Q24 业绩受天 气及项目投入增长而承压 核心观点： 公司点评●旅游及景区 [Table_Header] 2024 年 04 月 28 日 [Table_StockCode] 天目湖(603136) [Table_InvestRank] 推荐 (维持) [Table_Summary] 事件：2023 年公 司实现营收 6.3 亿 元/同 比+71%； 归母 净 利 1.5 亿 元/同 比 +624%，扣非净利 1.4 亿元/同比+1024%。1Q24 公司实现营收 1.1 亿元/同比11%，归母净利 0.1 亿元/同比-43%，扣非净利 0.1 亿元/同比-45%。 ⚫ 2023 年内部项目表现有所分化 2023 年受益于国内消费及旅 游市场快速复苏，公 司疫情期 间新增项目开始贡 献增量，整体营收规 模同比增长 70%，且较 2019 年增长 26%。分产品看，公 司山水园、南山竹 海两大核 心景区项目各实现营收 1.8 亿、1.5 亿元，同比增 107%、109%，但水世界项目受天气因素影响，同比 22 年下降 10%；酒店业 务方面，受益于酒店项目 ...

天目湖（603136.SH）2023 年年报及 2024 年一季报点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 23 年业绩表现超越 19 年同期，关注沪苏湖铁路落地进展 2024 年 04 月 28 日 ➢ 天目湖发布 2023 年年报/2024 年一季报。23 年经营情况：1）收入/利润 表现：23 年公司营收 6.30 亿元/同比+70.90%，较 19 年同期+25.18%；归母 净利润 1.47 亿元/同比+623.78%，较 19 年同期+18.83%。2）各项费用率表 现：23 年公司销售费用率/管理费用率分别为 7.58%/13.69%，同比-3.62pcts/- 7.37pcts，较 19 年同期-5.83pcts/-1.05pcts。3）毛利率/净利率表现：23 年公 司毛利率 54.34%/同比+18.09pcts，较 19 年同期-10.98pcts；归母净利率 26.72%/同比+20.98pcts，较 19 年同期-1.42pcts。24Q1 经营情况：24Q1， 公司营业收入 1.07 亿元/同比-11.33%，较 19 年同期+20.00%；归母净利润 0.11 亿 ...