公司研究|可选消费|耐用消费品与服装 证券研究报告 周大生(002867)公司点评报告 2024年11月06日 三季度业绩承压,电商及自营稳健增长加盟下滑 增持|下调 -周大生(002867)2024 三季报点评 事件: 公司发布 2024 年三季报。 点评: ● 三季度经营承压,利润下滑 28.70% 前三季度公司实现营业收入 108.09 亿元,同比下滑 13.49%,实现归母净 利润 8.55 亿元同比下滑 21.95%，实现销售毛利率 20.58%，较去年同期下 降 2.36 个百分点,归母净利润率 7.91%,同比下降 0.86 个百分点。单三季 度公司实现营业收入 26.12 亿元，同比下滑 40.91%，归母净利润 2.53 亿 元,同比下滑 28.70%, 销售毛利率 27.48%,同比提升 9.70 个百分点,归 母净利润率 9.70%，同比提升 1.66 个百分点。 ● 金价高位上涨影响行业,公司电商及自营保持稳健增长 按业务渠道划分:(1)自营线下业务实现营业收入 13.54 亿元,较上年同期 增长 9.77%;(2) 电商业务实现营业收入 16.53 亿元,同比增长 5.94%, (3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.809 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.49%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 855 million yuan, down 21.95% year-on-year [4][5] - The company opened 474 new stores in the first three quarters of 2024, resulting in a net increase of 129 stores [6] - The company is focusing on quality development and enhancing brand strength while adjusting product structure and increasing marketing efforts [6] Financial Performance Summary - For 1-3Q24, the revenue from franchise business was 7.66 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.75% year-on-year, while self-operated offline business revenue increased by 9.77% to 1.354 billion yuan [5] - E-commerce revenue grew by 5.94% to 1.653 billion yuan, with significant growth in embedded and silver jewelry products [5] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 1.06 billion, 1.15 billion, and 1.32 billion yuan respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 12-15 times for 2024 [8] Store Expansion and Strategy - The total number of stores as of September was 5,235, with 4,886 being franchise stores and 349 self-operated stores [6] - The company aims to enhance product development and marketing strategies to adapt to market changes [6] Valuation and Market Comparison - The estimated market value range for the company is between 12.8 billion and 16 billion yuan, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 11.65 to 14.57 yuan per share [8] - Compared to peers, the company's 2024 PE ratio is projected at 12-15 times, indicating a competitive valuation [9]

代码：002867 证券简称：周大生 编号：2024-039 周大生珠宝股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | √特定对象调研 | □分析师会议 | | | □媒体采访 | □业绩说明会 | | 投资者关系活动类别 | ...

高金价抑制终端需求，拓店节奏有所放缓 核心观点 ⚫ 公司发布 24Q3 季报，前三季度实现营业收入 108.1 亿，同比下降 13.5%，实现归 母净利润 8.55 亿，同比下降 21.95%，其中 24Q3 收入和归母净利润分别同比下降 40.9%和 28.7%。 ⚫ 高金价抑制终端需求，24Q3 加盟渠道下降幅度较大。分渠道来看，24Q3 电商、加 盟和自营渠道收入分别同比增长 14%、-51.6%和-3.6%。分产品来看，24Q3 镶嵌类 和素金类收入分别同比下降 7%和 48.3%，其中镶嵌类产品降幅逐季缩窄，素金类 产品降幅扩大，我们判断与三季度金价持续上涨、消费者观望情绪明显导致经销商 的拿货热情普遍下降有关。截至 2024 年 9 月底，SGE 黄金 T+D 价格为 595.2 元/ 克，相比 7 月初增长 8.3%，相比 1 月初增长 24%。 ⚫ 拓店节奏环比有所放缓。24Q3 加盟和直营门店分别净增-1 和 6 家店，相比 24Q2 的 94 和 7 家店的拓店速度明显放缓，预计也与经销商观望情绪较重相关。 ⚫ 盈利能力方面，24Q3 公司毛利率同比增长 9.7pct 至 27.5%，我们 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 13.1 CNY per share, while the current price is 11.15 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 13.49% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue reaching 10.809 billion CNY. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.95% to 855 million CNY. In Q3 alone, revenue fell by 40.91% year-on-year to 2.612 billion CNY, and net profit dropped by 28.70% to 253 million CNY [1]. - High gold prices have suppressed demand, leading to a cautious consumer sentiment. The jewelry market saw a year-on-year decline of 3.1% in the first nine months of 2024, with significant drops in consumer spending observed from May to September [1]. - The company continues to expand its offline store presence, opening 474 new stores in the first three quarters, which includes 421 franchise stores and 53 self-operated stores. As of the end of September, the total number of stores reached 5,235 [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 27.5% in Q3, an increase of 9.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin attributable to shareholders rose to 9.7%, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Long-term growth potential is anticipated as the company optimizes product categories, enhances product design, and expands distribution channels, despite the current macroeconomic challenges and high gold prices affecting demand [1]. Financial Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 16.29 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 46.5%. However, a decline of 11.1% is expected in 2024, with revenue forecasted at 14.486 billion CNY. The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1.316 billion CNY, with a decrease of 15.9% anticipated in 2024 [2]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 12.22 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 12.04 billion CNY. The asset-liability ratio stands at 24.91% [3].

周大生 (002867.SZ) 公司点评 证券研究报告 买入(维持评级) 黄金饰品终端动销偏弱影响业绩表现， 公司 10.30 公告 1-3Q24 营收/归母净利润 108.09/8.55 亿元、 同比-13.49%/-21.95%。单 Q3 营收/归母净利润 26.12/2.53 亿元、同比-40.91%/-28.7%；收入及利润增长承压主要系金 价高位波动增强黄金饰品消费观望情绪，下游客户补货热情 持续下降；持续加大产品研发和优化产品结构、Q3 毛利率同 比+9.7PCT，强化广告宣传及市场营销力度致 Q3 销售费用率 同比+6.31PCT，毛销差同比改善。 Q2 来黄金产品景气度走弱。1）社零：24 年逐季走弱，1Q24 同比+4.5%，以绝对量推算 2Q24/3Q24 同比-4%/-7.7%；2）价： Q1-Q3 上海黄金交易所 Au9999 收盘价均价同比 +16%/+23%/+24%；3）量：据中国黄金协会，Q1-Q3 黄金首饰 消费量同比-3%/-52%/-29%，金条及金币用金消费量同比 +26.77%/+72%/-9%，实物黄金消费热情 Q3 回落。 素金和镶嵌产品均有承压。1-3Q24 素 ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 周大生（002867） 证券研究报告 2024 年 11 月 03 日 投资评级 行业 纺织服饰/饰品 6 个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 11.15 元 目标价格 元 24Q4 及全年净利润降幅争取收窄 公司发布三季报 公司 24Q3 收入 26 亿，同减 41%；归母净利 2.5 亿同减 29%，扣非后归母 净利 2.5 亿同减 27%； 24Q1-3 公司收入 108 亿同减 13.5%，归母净利 8.5 亿同减 22%，扣非后归 母 8.4 亿同减 21%。 24Q1-3 公司毛利率 20.58%同增 2.36pct；净利率 7.89%同减 0.85pct。 24Q3 公司毛利率 27.48%，同增 9.7pct，毛利率提升明显，系①自营渠道受 益于金价上涨，以及率先优化调整产品结构，助力毛利率提升；②加盟渠 道通过收取品牌使用费方式黄金出货量占比提升，以及一口价产品对整体 毛利贡献提升，从而提升毛利率；③电商渠道中高毛利率饰品类占比提升， 对毛利率提升有积极作用。 24Q4 值得期待：24Q4 及全年净利润降幅争取收窄；争取全年门店数净增 200 家以上，并且要开好店、 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 11 02 年 月 日 周大生（002867.SZ） 2024Q3 加盟业务发货承压，电商增速优异 公司 2024Q3 营收下降 41%，归母净利润同比下降 29%。单 Q3 公司 营收下降 40.9%至 26.1 亿元，由于消费环境的波动叠加金价高企，我们 判断公司三季度金饰发货量或有明显下降，毛利率同比提升 9.7pcts 至 27.5%，我们判断毛利率的大幅提升或由于渠道结构以及产品结构的变 动，我们判断期内品牌使用费（毛利率 100%）占比或有显著提升，同时 高附加值产品也在逐步推出。销售费用率同比提升 6.3pcts 至 11.3%，主 要系公司持续加大各渠道品牌营销投入，管理费用率同比提升 0.4pcts 至 0.9%，归母净利率同比提升 1.7pcts 至 9.7%，归母净利润同比下降 28.7% 至 2.5 亿元。2024Q1~Q3 公司营收同比下降 13.5%至 108.1 亿元，归母 净利润下降 21.9%至 8.5 亿元，年初以来国内珠宝首饰需求较弱，对公司 各渠道销售造成较大影响。 加盟：批发业务黄金收入大幅下滑，门店数量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company faced significant pressure on revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 40.91% in revenue and a 28.7% drop in net profit [2][3] - The overall gross margin improved to 27.48%, up 9.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased to 9.67%, up 1.65 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company continues to expand its store network, with a total of 5,235 stores as of September 2024, an increase of 129 stores since the beginning of the year [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 10.809 billion yuan, down 13.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of 855 million yuan, down 21.95% year-on-year [2] - Q3 2024 revenue was 2.612 billion yuan, with a net profit of 253 million yuan [2] - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 from 1.39 billion, 1.57 billion, and 1.74 billion yuan to 1.14 billion, 1.29 billion, and 1.41 billion yuan respectively [4] Channel Performance - Self-operated and e-commerce channels showed slight growth, with self-operated offline revenue at 1.354 billion yuan, up 9.77% year-on-year, while franchise revenue decreased by 19.75% [3] - E-commerce revenue reached 1.653 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.94% [3] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 11.28 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 12.36 billion yuan [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2024 is projected at 10.82 times [1][11]

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——周大生 2024 年三季报业绩点评 | --- | --- | |-------------------|---------------------| | | | | 刘越男 ( 分析师 ) | [table_Authors] | | | | | 021-38677706 | | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | | S0880516030003 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | 021-38038344 | | | | | suying@gtjas.com | | | | | S0880522110001 | | | | 本报告导读： 2024Q3 业绩低于预期，金价持续新高动销疲软，加盟商补货意愿承压，静待终端动 销逐步回温。 投资要点： [Table ...