公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 林洋能源（601222）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 业绩阶段性承压，海外深化布局有望贡献增量 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 6,742 | 7,706 | 9,018 | 10,176 | | 同比增速(%) | -1.9% | 14.3% | 17.0% | 12.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 753 | 818 | 936 | 1,070 | | 同比增速(%) | -27.0% | 8.6% | 14.5% | 14.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.37 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.52 | | 市盈率(倍) | 15 | 14 | 12 | 11 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 29 日收盘价 太阳能 2 ...

事件： 点评： 从经营层面看： 公司研究 轮胎 2025 年 04 月 30 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 贵州轮胎（000589）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 产销稳健增长，聚焦结构改善越南三期积极 推进 | 目标价：5.20 | 元 | | --- | --- | | 当前价：4.36 | 元 | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：郑轶 邮箱：zhengyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522100004 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 155,525.56 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(万股) | 153,783.85 | | 总市值(亿元) | 67.81 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 67.05 | | 资产负债率(%) | 50.57 | | 每股净资产(元) | 5.68 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 6.62/4.26 | 市场表现对比图(近 12 个月) -31% -15% 1% 17% 24/04 24/07 24/09 24/ ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 西部证券（002673）2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 自营业务环比有所下行 目标价：9.24 元 事项： 点评： 单季度 ROE 同比提升，环比下行，或主要受自营固收业务影响。公司报告期 内 ROE 为 1%，同比+0.3pct，杜邦拆分来看： 1）公司报告期末财务杠杆倍数（总资产剔除客户资金）为：2.75 倍，同比-0.1 倍，环比+0.2 倍。 2）公司报告期内资产周转率（总资产剔除客户资金，总营收剔除其他业务收 入后）为 1.2%，同比+0.2pct。 3）公司报告期内净利润率为 30.3%，同比+5.2pct。 杠杆倍数同比有所下行。资产负债表看，剔除客户资金后公司总资产为 798 亿元，同比-1.8 亿元，净资产：290 亿元，同比+9.1 亿元。杠杆倍数为 2.75 倍， 同比-0.1 倍。 公司计息负债余额为 451 亿元，环比+80.6 亿元，单季度负债成本率为 0.6%， 环比-0.2pct，同比-0.1pct。 重资本业务收益率环比有所回落，同比仍在提升。公司重资本业务净收入合 计为 4.8 亿元。重资本业务净收益率（非年化）为 0.7%，环比-0 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 恒顺醋业（600305）2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） Q1 延续高增，仍待改革落地 目标价：8.8 元 事项： 公司发布 2025 年一季报，25Q1 公司实现营业总收入 6.26 亿元，同比+36.0%； 归母净利润 0.57 亿元，同比+2.4%。 评论： [主要财务指标 ReportFinancialIndex] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,196 | 2,373 | 2,548 | 2,716 | | 同比增速(%) | 4.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 127 | 178 | 203 | 231 | | 同比增速(%) | 46.5% | 40.1% | 13.5% | 14.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.21 | | 市盈率(倍) | 70 | 50 | 44 | 39 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 东阿阿胶（000423）2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 勿因短期现金流而低估经营韧性 目标价：72.5 元 事项： 公司公告 1Q25 实现收入 17.2 亿元（+18.2% yoy）、归母净利 4.3 亿元（+20.2% yoy）、扣非净利 4.2 亿元（+26.7% yoy），并召开一季度业绩说明会，对市场较 为关注的现金流及应收账款等财务指标变化进行解读。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 5,921 | 6,919 | 8,022 | 9,191 | | 同比增速(%) | 25.6% | 16.9% | 15.9% | 14.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,557 | 1,869 | 2,205 | 2,602 | | 同比增速(%) | 35.3% | 20.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.42 | 2.90 | 3.42 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][22]. Core Views - The company is experiencing high growth driven by automotive electronics, with a dual-brand strategy and new product development enhancing its long-term competitiveness [1]. - The automotive electronics segment is a key growth driver, with revenue from this sector increasing by over 60% year-on-year in 2024, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [7]. - The company is expanding its global footprint through its "YJ+MCC" dual-brand strategy, targeting different markets effectively [7]. - The establishment of a packaging base in Vietnam is expected to enhance production capacity and local supply chain capabilities [7]. - The company is advancing in the third-generation semiconductor space, with new product launches expected to support future growth [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 60.33 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [2][7]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.002 billion, reflecting an 8.5% increase year-on-year [2][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 1.84 in 2024 to 3.19 by 2027 [2][7]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 26 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, indicating potential for valuation improvement [2][7]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 33.1% in 2024 to 35.4% in 2027, driven by higher-margin product sales [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) with a target price of 6.24 CNY, compared to the current price of 5.35 CNY [4][8]. Core Views - The bank's liabilities continue to show advantages, while retail business is expected to recover gradually. The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight decline in operating income by 0.07% year-on-year, and a decrease in net profit by 2.62% year-on-year. The non-performing loan ratio increased slightly to 0.91%, and the provision coverage ratio decreased by 20 percentage points to 266% [2][3][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Operating Income and Profit**: In Q1 2025, the bank achieved operating income of 893.63 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 0.07%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 252.46 billion CNY, down 2.62% year-on-year [2][3]. - **Loan and Deposit Growth**: The bank's loans and deposits grew by 9.8% and 9.2% year-on-year, respectively. Corporate loans increased by 15.2%, while retail loans grew by 4.3% [8]. - **Interest Margin**: The net interest margin decreased by 10 basis points to 1.69% in Q1 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in asset yield [8]. - **Asset Quality**: The non-performing loan ratio rose to 0.91%, with an annualized net generation rate of 0.94%. The bank is expected to maintain manageable levels of retail loan non-performing rates as the economy recovers [8]. Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: The forecast for revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 is 1.0%, 3.6%, and 6.4%, respectively. Net profit growth is projected at 1.1%, 2.0%, and 5.0% for the same period [8][9]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The current valuation is at 0.6 times the 2025 price-to-book ratio, with a target price set at 6.24 CNY based on a projected price-to-book ratio of 0.7 times [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the computer industry, indicating an expected relative performance within a range of -10% to 10% compared to the benchmark index over the next 3-6 months [2][38]. Core Insights - Alibaba's Qwen3 model has been launched as the first open-source model globally, significantly reducing deployment costs and enhancing performance compared to leading models like DeepSeek-R1 and OpenAI-o1 [2][22]. - The Qwen3 model supports two distinct cognitive modes: "Deep Thinking Mode" for complex problem-solving and "Rapid Response Mode" for instant decision-making, optimizing computational resource allocation [8][11]. - Qwen3 has achieved superior performance in various benchmark tests, setting records in areas such as mathematics and coding, outperforming competitors like OpenAI and DeepSeek [14][18]. - The open-sourcing of Qwen3 has solidified Alibaba's leadership in the global AI open-source ecosystem, with over 200 models released and more than 300 million downloads [22][25]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Qwen3's Efficiency and Application - Qwen3 significantly reduces computational consumption while expanding application scenarios through its dual cognitive modes [8][11]. - The model supports 119 languages and dialects, enhancing its international applicability and user experience [11][12]. Section 2: Performance Excellence - Qwen3-235B-A22B excels in various benchmark tests, achieving scores such as 81.5 in AIME25 and 95.6 in ArenaHard, surpassing other leading models [14][18]. Section 3: Global Leadership in Open Source - Qwen series has become the largest open-source model family globally, with over 100,000 derivative models, reinforcing Alibaba's influence in the AI sector [22][25]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring various companies across sectors such as office software, finance, industrial applications, and healthcare, indicating potential growth driven by advancements in AI models [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from low-cost to high-cost products, initiating a new phase of high growth despite facing external challenges in recent years [10][11]. - The overall profitability has significantly improved, with gross margins increasing from 43.2% in 2022 to 44.5% in 2024, despite revenue growth being impacted by external factors [2][41]. - Future growth is expected to be driven by the introduction of high-margin new products and the gradual reduction of the impact from anti-corruption measures in the domestic market [46][48]. Summary by Sections Product System Upgrade as Core Growth Driver - The company has focused on upgrading its product system across research, sales, and manufacturing, transitioning from a traditional low-value consumables company to a more innovative entity [15][16]. - R&D investment has increased from 0.42 billion in 2019 to 1.11 billion in 2024, with the R&D expense ratio rising from 4.3% to 7.4% [16][18]. Impact of External Factors on Performance - In 2023, external factors such as inventory destocking by overseas clients led to a decline in export revenue, which fell to 2.64 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18% [1][31]. - Domestic sales were also affected by anti-corruption measures, resulting in a 15% year-on-year decline in the second half of 2023 [1][34]. Future Outlook and Margin Improvement - The report anticipates that the impact of anti-corruption will diminish, allowing for the accelerated introduction of high-margin new products, which will boost domestic sales and margins [46][48]. - The company is also expanding its overseas operations to mitigate geopolitical risks, with plans for new manufacturing facilities in Mexico and Southeast Asia [49][50]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected total revenue for 2024 is 1.509 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.8%, and net profit is expected to reach 219 million, reflecting a 14% increase [4][12]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 16 yuan, with a current price of 11.59 yuan, indicating significant upside potential [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [7][22]. Core Views - The company demonstrates steady growth in performance, with revenue for 2024 projected at 1.828 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.83%. The gross margin is expected to improve by 5.67 percentage points to 36.42% [6][7]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings and optimizing its market structure, with significant contributions from high-end sectors such as automotive electronics and AI servers. The revenue composition for 2024 is expected to be 35% from industrial automation, 18% from automotive electronics, and 15% from photovoltaic storage [7][8]. - The company is investing in R&D, with an allocation of 1.04 billion yuan in 2024, representing 5.67% of revenue. This investment is aimed at advancing technology and developing new products, particularly in the IGBT and third-generation semiconductor sectors [7][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: - 2024: 1,828 million yuan - 2025: 2,243 million yuan (22.7% growth) - 2026: 2,719 million yuan (21.2% growth) - 2027: 3,224 million yuan (18.6% growth) [2][8] - **Net Profit Projections**: - 2024: 435 million yuan - 2025: 541 million yuan (24.4% growth) - 2026: 655 million yuan (21.2% growth) - 2027: 795 million yuan (21.4% growth) [2][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 1.05 yuan - 2025: 1.30 yuan - 2026: 1.58 yuan - 2027: 1.92 yuan [2][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 30 times, with a target price of 39.1 yuan per share [3][7].