行 华福证券 社会服务 2026 年 01 月 23 日 业 研 究 社会服务 关注服务消费结构性机会，及春节旺季珠宝行情 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 文旅：元旦假期出行链数据超预期。海南离岛免税方面，元旦假期期 间，海口海关共监管离岛免税商品销售 44.2 万件，同比增长 52.4%；购物 人数 8.35 万人次，同比增长 60.6%；购物金额 7.12 亿元，同比增长 128.9%。 旅游出行方面，经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，元旦假期 3 天，全国国内 出游 1.42 亿人次，国内出游总花费 847.89 亿元，建议关注四季度冰雪游旺 季公司长白山、大连圣亚，寺庙游标的九华旅游、峨眉山 A 等。 黄金珠宝：金价高位走强，关注春节旺季销售。春节旺季金价走强， 民众基于"买涨"心理，旺季期间预计行业消费量下降有限，而金价同比 大幅上涨，主要品牌 1-2 月同店有望保持较快增长。建议关注一口价产品 占比高的潮宏基、老铺黄金、周大福，其他建议关注高股息的周大生、菜 百股份。 华福证券 风险提示 宏观经济波动；需求不及预期；行业竞争加剧。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 | 分析师： ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that as of January 22, 2025, the disclosure rate of active equity public funds is 95.6%, with a notable increase in A-share holdings and a decrease in Hong Kong stock holdings [2][11] - The report indicates a strategic shift towards large-cap and dividend stocks while reducing exposure to small-cap stocks [2][11] - There is a clear preference for cyclical and consumer sectors, with increased allocations to these areas and a reduction in growth stocks [2][11] - In terms of industry allocation, there is an increase in exposure to non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and machinery, while reducing allocations to defense, media, and electronics [2][11] Fund Position Changes - As of Q4 2025, the stock position of active equity public funds stands at 86.45%, reflecting a decrease of 0.97 percentage points from the previous quarter. A-share holdings increased by 1.07 percentage points, while Hong Kong stock holdings decreased by 2.05 percentage points [3][12] Sector Allocation Broad Indices - The report notes an increase in allocation to the CSI 300 index, with a holding ratio of 60.12%, and an over-allocation of 14.51% to the CSI 300 and 3.68% to the CSI 500. There is a tendency to reduce exposure to the CSI 1000 index [4][15] Listed Sectors - The report indicates a decrease in Hong Kong stock holdings, with an increased allocation to the ChiNext board. The Hong Kong stock position decreased by 0.68 percentage points, while the ChiNext allocation increased by 1.09 percentage points [4][20] Style Preferences - The report shows an increase in allocations to cyclical and consumer sectors, with cyclical stocks seeing an increase of 1.58 percentage points and consumer stocks an increase of 0.66 percentage points. Conversely, growth stocks saw a decrease of 2.48 percentage points [4][24] Industry Distribution First-Level Industries - The report highlights increased allocations to non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and machinery, while reducing allocations to defense, media, and electronics. The top five industries with increased allocations include non-ferrous metals (+0.95 percentage points), telecommunications (+0.93 percentage points), and machinery (+0.63 percentage points) [4][27][30] Second-Level Industries - The report identifies increased allocations to semiconductors, internet e-commerce, batteries, chemical pharmaceuticals, and biological products. The top five industries with increased holdings include semiconductors (+0.57 percentage points) and batteries (+3.86 percentage points) [4][34][38] Individual Stock Allocation - The concentration of the top 10 holdings (CR10) in active equity public funds remains stable at 13%. The top 20 stocks with increased market value are primarily in the power equipment, electronics, and non-ferrous metals sectors, while companies like CATL, Industrial Fulian, and Alibaba have seen significant declines in their market values [5][42]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The domestic baby products market in China is expected to grow from 121.8 billion CNY in 2020 to 144.1 billion CNY in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.3%. The durable goods segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.2%, outpacing the consumer goods segment [3][58]. - The company has successfully transitioned from an ODM model to a global brand, with approximately 80% of its revenue coming from overseas markets, particularly Europe and North America [3][16]. - The company is expected to achieve a record net profit of 356 million HKD in 2024, with a forecasted recovery in profitability in 2026 as external disturbances diminish [4][37]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Goodbaby International Holdings Limited is a leading global parenting products company, established in 1989, focusing on design, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of various child-related products [16][17]. - The company has a comprehensive global presence with over 6,000 employees and operates under three strategic brands: Cybex, gb, and Evenflo [16][17]. Financial Overview - The company has seen fluctuations in net profit, with a significant drop during 2021-2022 due to pandemic-related supply chain disruptions. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2024, with net profit reaching a historical high [4][37]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.50 billion HKD, 3.44 billion HKD, and 3.85 billion HKD, with growth rates of -58%, +129%, and +12% respectively [5][121]. Industry Analysis - The Chinese baby products market is characterized by category and tier differentiation, with a stable growth outlook for the overseas market, particularly in Europe and North America [3][58]. - The report highlights a structural growth opportunity in the baby durable goods sector, with a projected CAGR of 8.4% from 2024 to 2029 [58]. - The competitive landscape in the baby products industry is intensifying, with new brands emerging and existing brands facing pressure due to changing consumer preferences and sales channels [74][76]. Profitability Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from business adjustments, with net profit projected to recover in 2026 as external pressures ease and operational optimizations take effect [4][37]. - Cybex is highlighted as a strong growth driver, with a CAGR of 19.2% from 2014 to 2024, while Evenflo faces challenges due to tariff impacts [91][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the bond market remained weak. The ultra - long - end interest rates continued to rise while the short - end rates recovered, steepening the yield curve. The trading desks, represented by securities firms and broad - based funds, continued to reduce their bond allocations, but the reduction intensity of securities firms weakened and they started to increase their allocation to interest - rate bonds. The allocation - oriented institutions such as banks and insurance companies increased their bond allocations, but the scale was limited and difficult to reverse the overall interest - rate trend. The top signal of interest rates might need to wait until the allocation power strengthened to the point where the selling pressure from trading institutions could no longer push interest rates significantly higher [3][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 12 - month Interest - rate Bonds Drag Bond Custody Increment to Drop Significantly, Credit and Certificates of Deposit Also Decline - In December, the total bond custody scale increased by 30.26 billion yuan month - on - month, a significant decrease of 117.73 billion yuan compared with November. The custody increment of interest - rate bonds was 69.59 billion yuan, about 78 billion yuan lower than the previous month. The custody increments of treasury bonds, local bonds, and policy - financial bonds all decreased significantly. The net financing of medium - term notes and short - term commercial papers also decreased significantly, leading to a lower custody increment of credit bonds. The custody scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit continued to decline by 62.24 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 23.66 billion yuan compared with the previous month [3][10]. 3.2 Trading Desks' Reduction of Allocations Continues, Allocation - Oriented Desks Lack Incentive to Increase Allocations 3.2.1 Broad - based Funds - In December, the bond custody volume of broad - based funds decreased by 9.92 billion yuan month - on - month, compared with an increase of 22.16 billion yuan in the previous month. The reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit was 34.96 billion yuan, an increase of 34.01 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The reduction in treasury bonds, enterprise bonds, short - term commercial papers, PPNs, and credit - asset - backed securities increased, while the increase in medium - term notes and local bonds decreased. The reduction in commercial - bank bonds decreased, and they started to increase their allocation to policy - financial bonds. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of broad - based funds on bonds increased, and the reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit was particularly significant, but the reduction in commercial - bank bonds decreased and the allocation to policy - financial bonds increased [17][19]. 3.2.2 Securities Firms - In December, the bond custody volume of securities firms decreased by 0.23 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 13.98 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They started to increase their allocation to treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and commercial - bank bonds, increased their allocation to local bonds, but started to reduce their allocation to medium - term notes and short - term commercial papers, and the reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit, PPNs, and enterprise bonds increased. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of securities firms on bonds decreased, mainly as they started to increase their allocation to interest - rate bonds but started to reduce their allocation to credit bonds [27]. 3.2.3 Insurance Companies - In December, the bond custody volume of insurance companies increased by 4 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 1.15 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They increased their allocation to treasury bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit, decreased their reduction in commercial - bank bonds, but started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds and medium - term notes, decreased their allocation to financial bonds on the Clearstream, and increased their reduction in enterprise bonds. Relative to the stock, insurance companies started to increase their allocation to bonds, mainly increasing their allocation to treasury bonds and local bonds [33]. 3.2.4 Overseas Institutions - In December, the bond custody scale of overseas institutions decreased by 15.09 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 3.41 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds, increased their reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit and treasury bonds, but started to increase their allocation to local bonds and medium - term notes. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of overseas institutions on bonds increased slightly, mainly increasing their reduction in policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit, but decreasing their reduction in treasury bonds and increasing their allocation to local bonds and medium - term notes [34]. 3.2.5 Other Institutions - In December, the bond custody volume of other institutions including the central bank increased by 18.24 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase narrowing by 39.22 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They decreased their allocation to treasury bonds and local bonds, started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds, but increased their allocation to inter - bank certificates of deposit. The change in the bond custody structure of other institutions might indicate that the underlying assets of repurchase agreements were still mainly local bonds, but some were replaced from policy - financial bonds to treasury bonds [39]. 3.2.6 Commercial Banks - In December, the bond custody scale of commercial banks increased by 25.73 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase narrowing by 52.58 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The increase in local bonds, treasury bonds, financial bonds on the Clearstream, and medium - term notes decreased, the reduction in short - term commercial papers, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and commercial - bank bonds increased, and the increase in policy - financial bonds increased. This also reflected the impact of the change in the structure of repurchase - agreement underlying assets to some extent. Relative to the stock, commercial banks also increased their allocation to bonds to some extent, increasing their allocation to policy - financial bonds and treasury bonds, increasing their allocation to local bonds, decreasing their reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit, but decreasing their allocation to financial bonds on the Clearstream and medium - term notes, and increasing their reduction in short - term commercial papers and commercial - bank bonds [45]. 3.2.7 Credit Unions - In December, the bond custody scale of credit unions decreased by 9.82 billion yuan month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.98 billion yuan in the previous month. They started to reduce their allocation to inter - bank certificates of deposit and treasury bonds, increased their reduction in policy - financial bonds and commercial - bank bonds, and decreased their allocation to local bonds. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of credit unions on bonds increased, mainly reducing their allocation to certificates of deposit and policy - financial bonds [46]. 3.3 The Bond - market Leverage Ratio Seasonally Rebounded in December, and Securities Firms Reduced Leverage but It Remained at a High Level - In December, affected by short - term disturbances in the liabilities of some institutions at the end of the year and the increase in the demand for borrowing funds, the bond - market leverage ratio increased by 0.6 percentage points month - on - month to 107.8%, which was in line with the seasonal pattern. By institution, the leverage ratio of commercial banks increased by 0.3 percentage points month - on - month to 103.6%; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased by 1.4 percentage points month - on - month to 118.4%, which was also in line with the seasonal characteristics; the leverage ratio of securities firms decreased significantly by 14.1 percentage points month - on - month to 217.3%, but it was still at a high level; the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal - person products increased by 1.7 percentage points month - on - month to 115.4%, which was at a relatively low level in the past three years. In the broad - based funds, the repurchase balances of various institutions rebounded. Among them, the repurchase balances of money - market funds, other products, and insurance companies reached record highs, and the repurchase balance of wealth - management products reached a new high since 2025, but the repurchase balance of non - money - market funds remained at a relatively low level since 2023 [4][52].

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Effectiveness - The fiscal policy for 2025 remains strong, but the fiscal effect coefficient on economic growth has declined, indicating lower "cost-effectiveness" of fiscal expansion[3] - The central government's fund expenditure completion rate was only 53.7% of the budget in 2024, suggesting a slow spending pace that may continue into 2025[3] - The increase in fiscal deposits in 2025 is higher than in previous years, reflecting a phenomenon of "funds lying idle"[3] Group 2: Policy Focus Changes - The general public budget deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain stable at around 4%, with an emphasis on expanding fiscal spending[4] - Domestic demand is prioritized as a strategic focus, with a shift to "domestic demand-led" growth[4] - There is a continued emphasis on enhancing residents' income and employment, reflecting a higher priority on social welfare[4] Group 3: Government Debt and Financing - The issuance of government bonds in Q1 2026 is expected to show slight growth compared to the previous year, with a stable issuance plan[5] - The scale of individual issued bonds has increased, with notable rises in 1Y, 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y bonds compared to last year[5] - The pace of local debt issuance in 2026 is expected to be more uniform, with a focus on special refinancing bonds[5]

Group 1 - The core view of the report is that the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to perform well, driven by the second phase of the bull market and the revaluation of physical assets, with the Shenwan first-level industry index for non-ferrous metals showing a remarkable annual increase of 94.73%, leading 31 other industries [3][10][11]. - The second phase of the bull market is characterized by a profit-driven upward cycle, supported by an upward revision of economic fundamentals, which highlights the strong cyclicality of non-ferrous metals [4][12]. - The narrative of "de-involution" and expansion of domestic demand, along with the reinforcement of re-inflation discourse, suggests that the non-ferrous metal market is likely to continue its upward trend [4][12]. Group 2 - The weak dollar provides a favorable environment for the rise of physical assets, as a depreciating dollar increases the purchasing power of non-dollar currencies for dollar-denominated commodities [21][22]. - The core logic of U.S. debt monetization is highlighted, where fiscal and debt monetization is seen as a pathway to address the growing U.S. debt issue, with non-renewable resources like physical assets serving as a hedge against value erosion [25][30]. - The historical underinvestment in mining capital expenditures is a significant constraint, with global exploration spending for solid minerals declining to $12.48 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [44]. Group 3 - The "power triangle" theory of critical minerals illustrates the geopolitical competition for key minerals, with the U.S. aiming to maintain its dominant position in the global critical mineral supply chain while China seeks to secure its mineral supply [51][58]. - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for investments in non-ferrous metals, emphasizing that the four major logics behind the revaluation of physical assets are unlikely to change easily [60]. - Potential investment strategies include focusing on gold for its monetary attributes, copper for its industrial demand driven by AI infrastructure, and other industrial metals that may benefit from tariff dynamics and AI-related growth [61].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the theme of "cognitive differences, transformation imminent," highlighting the accelerated iteration of business models among light industry companies amid macroeconomic and trade fluctuations, suggesting a focus on identifying alpha opportunities in companies with high barriers and leading global capacity layouts [2][16] - The light industry index underperformed the market in 2025, with a return of +20.88%, trailing the CSI 300 by -0.31%. The performance was driven by companies undergoing transformation or restructuring, while only a few stocks, like Xiangxin Home, saw price increases driven by solid fundamentals [10][16] - For 2026, three investment themes are proposed: export alpha, steady growth, and low-level consumption. Recommended companies include Zhongxin Co., Xiangxin Home, and Mengbaihe for exports; Sun Paper and Jiu Long Paper for steady growth; and Gujia Home and Oppein for low-level consumption [2][16] 2025 Sector Review - The light industry sector underperformed the market, with packaging and personal care showing stable growth, while home furnishings and paper faced pressure, leading to a divergence in export performance [3][11] - The overall revenue growth for the light industry sector in Q3 2025 was -0.7%, with a significant decline in net profit attributed to the paper sector, while personal care and packaging showed positive growth [13][14] 2026 Investment Themes - **Export Alpha**: Focus on high-barrier export manufacturing companies that are transitioning from product export to capacity and brand export, benefiting from the recovery of the US real estate chain due to interest rate cuts [2][21] - **Steady Growth**: Emphasis on paper and packaging sectors, with expectations of price recovery in 2026 for paper products, recommending companies like Sun Paper and Yutong Technology [2][16] - **Low-Level Consumption**: Targeting home furnishings and stationery, with recommendations for companies like Gujia Home and Oppein, as the sector is expected to recover with improved consumer sentiment [2][16] Key Companies - Recommended companies for export include Zhongxin Co. and Mengbaihe, while for steady growth, Sun Paper and Jiu Long Paper are highlighted. In the low-level consumption category, Gujia Home and Oppein are suggested as potential investment opportunities [2][16]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - Real estate sales in 42 cities showed a year-on-year decline improvement from -25.6% to -22.2% in the first three weeks of January[7] - The average price decline for new homes in 70 cities widened from -2.8% to -3.1% in December[7] - The average wholesale price index for agricultural products decreased, while pork prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month[22] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Movie box office revenue fell to approximately 360 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 16.4%[35] - The average daily visitor count at Shanghai Disneyland rose to 50,000, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.3%[37] - The average daily coal consumption by major power generation groups decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in the first 16 days of January[102] Group 3: Industrial Production - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires increased to 74.4% this week[9] - Steel production growth turned positive, with sample steel mills showing a decrease in inventory[54] - The price of PTA and polyester products generally increased, while the operating rate in the PTA industry declined[49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, with increased weekly amplitude, and the equity - style convertible bonds with "high price and high conversion premium" remained active. The balance - weighted increase of debt - biased convertible bonds was 0.03%, balanced convertible bonds rose 0.19%, and equity - biased convertible bonds rose 3.87%, further widening the style excess. The balance - weighted conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with an absolute price above 130 yuan approached the historical high [2][10]. - The "leverage" of equity - style "high - price and high - premium" convertible bonds can still explain the current valuation system changes. Convertible bonds have a certain degree of "leverage", and the investment behavior of secondary bond funds also indicates that convertible bonds are a leveraged tool for stocks [15][19]. - Redemption disturbances have begun to marginally affect the performance of equity - style convertible bonds. Some convertible bonds that have announced forced redemptions experienced a double - kill of stocks and bonds, and some equity - style convertible bonds that have not met the forced - redemption conditions also showed weak performance with a significant compression of the conversion premium rate [21]. - The strong performance of new convertible bonds is an important support for the "high - price and high - premium" situation, but potential regulatory policy risks need to be noted. As of last Friday, the balance - weighted implied volatility of convertible bonds listed within 6 months exceeded 85%. Considering the increased regulatory guidance on the equity market, there may be specific requirements for new convertible bonds [3][23]. - Historically, unexpected forced redemptions have a short - term impact on the valuation of equity - style convertible bonds. After the impact, it is recommended to focus on equity - style varieties with a higher certainty of non - forced redemption [29]. Summary According to the Directory 1 When "High - price and High - premium" Convertible Bonds Encounter Potential Forced - redemption Risks - **Market Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08% last week. Equity - style convertible bonds with "high price and high conversion premium" were active. In terms of style, debt - biased convertible bonds rose 0.03%, balanced convertible bonds rose 0.19%, and equity - biased convertible bonds rose 3.87%. The balance - weighted conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with an absolute price above 130 yuan was close to the historical high [2][10]. - **Valuation Explanation**: The "leverage" of convertible bonds can explain the current valuation system. The convertible bond valuation is related to the weighted index of underlying stocks, and the investment behavior of secondary bond funds also shows that convertible bonds are a leveraged tool for stocks [15][19]. - **Redemption Impact**: Redemption disturbances affected the performance of equity - style convertible bonds. Some bonds with announced forced redemptions had a double - kill of stocks and bonds, and some bonds that had not met the forced - redemption conditions also had a compressed conversion premium rate [21]. - **New Bond Support and Risks**: The strong performance of new convertible bonds supported the "high - price and high - premium" situation. As of last Friday, the balance - weighted implied volatility of convertible bonds listed within 6 months exceeded 85%. There may be regulatory risks for new convertible bonds [3][23]. - **Forced - redemption Impact on Valuation**: Historically, in the 5 trading days before an unexpected forced - redemption event, the valuation of equity - style convertible bonds was likely to be compressed, with a median compression amplitude of about 1 - 2 percentage points. After the event, there was no obvious pattern in the valuation performance. It is recommended to focus on equity - style varieties with a higher certainty of non - forced redemption [29]. - **Forced - redemption Counting Details**: Multiple convertible bonds are in the forced - redemption counting stage, and some are close to triggering forced redemptions. For example, Fuli Convertible Bond, Sailong Convertible Bond, and Tianjian Convertible Bond need at least 1 more day to trigger forced redemptions [35].

Group 1 - The report highlights the structural opportunities in the Z generation wealth management market, emphasizing the importance of intergenerational marketing and the role of parents as financial influencers [2][14][15] - It suggests that over 80% of young individuals discuss financial topics in social settings, indicating that social-driven financial channels are crucial for engagement and growth [2][14] - The report notes a significant gap in financial education and practical skills among the Z generation, with nearly 60% achieving annual returns below 4%, highlighting the need for AI-enabled financial tools and educational applications [2][15][19] Group 2 - The Z generation shows a strong desire for financial independence, with over 90% of individuals aged 18-24 aiming to achieve retirement financial goals before the age of 50 [7][19] - There is a notable gender disparity in investment behaviors, with 31.80% of males participating in stock investments compared to 19.76% of females, reflecting differing risk appetites [8][19] - The report identifies the rise of the creator economy as a new pathway for financial independence, with 57% of the Z generation monetizing their skills or content online [15][19] Group 3 - The report outlines three main areas of potential growth in the Z generation wealth management market: the early engagement of young investors, the integration of social and technological elements in financial services, and the emergence of new financial needs driven by the creator economy [19][20] - It also points out significant challenges, including the "knowledge-action gap," where many Z generation individuals struggle to execute their financial goals despite having them, with 31% citing financial resources as a major barrier [20] - The complexity of decision-making paths for the Z generation, influenced by both social platforms and parental guidance, complicates marketing strategies and market reach [20]