Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing importance of Hong Kong strategy and style indices as refined tools for asset allocation, risk management, and style expression amid a backdrop of deepening capital market openness and rising demand for diversified investment tools [2] - It highlights the clear positioning of various indices, such as the defensive strategy represented by the CSI Hong Kong 300 Stable Index, which focuses on fundamentally sound leading companies, showcasing excellent drawdown control and risk-adjusted returns [2][28] - The report suggests that the evolution of strategy and style indices from supplementary tools to core components is driven by market volatility and the need for precise asset allocation [2] Index Overview - The CSI Hong Kong 300 series defensive strategy indices include the Low Volatility, Low Beta, and Stable indices, which are constructed based on specific selection methods focusing on volatility and beta values [8] - The CSI Hong Kong 300 series offensive strategy indices, including the High Beta and Dynamic indices, are designed to capture trends in small and mid-cap stocks, providing an efficient vehicle for market elasticity and sector rotation [10] - The CSI Hong Kong 200 Momentum Index is tailored to select stocks with the highest risk-adjusted momentum indicators, reflecting its focus on capturing strong trends [12] Historical Performance - Since early 2020, the cumulative return of the CSI Hong Kong 300 Defensive Strategy Index lagged behind the Hang Seng Technology and CSI Hong Kong 300 indices during the risk-on phase from 2020 to mid-2021, demonstrating the defensive strategy's characteristic of sacrificing return elasticity for risk reduction [28] - In the subsequent market downturn starting mid-2021, the defensive indices showed relative advantages with significantly lower drawdowns compared to the Hang Seng Technology and CSI Hong Kong 300 indices, indicating effective risk management in bearish conditions [28] - The report notes that in the weak market of 2022-2023, the defensive indices maintained stronger stability, with the Stable Index exhibiting the smoothest performance, while the offensive indices struggled to recover [28] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that balanced strategies focusing on quality and risk control, such as equal risk contribution indices, may serve as stabilizers for medium to long-term allocations, while investors looking to capture short-term opportunities should consider momentum and high beta tools [2] - It emphasizes the need for investors to align their strategy and style index allocations with their risk preferences and market conditions, advocating for dynamic adjustments and portfolio optimization [2]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates that Shenzhen's GDP is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, achieving the anticipated growth target, with foreign trade increasing by 1.4% despite a decline in exports due to a high base in 2024 [7] - The strategy report highlights that A-share earnings are stabilizing, driven by cost reductions and the new economy outpacing the old economy, with a projected 10% growth in A-share earnings for 2026 under neutral assumptions [8][10] Industry and Company - The North Exchange's January 2026 report shows a significant increase in market activity, with a total of 292 listed companies and a total market value of 936.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.7% increase in total market value [11] - In the electric power equipment sector, domestic demand is expected to remain strong, with a focus on high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and smart meters, as the State Grid's fixed asset investment is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the previous five-year plan [14][15][17] - Yum China reported a 22% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q4 2025, with total revenue reaching $2.823 billion, driven by a 34% increase in delivery sales [18][19][21]

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing importance of Hong Kong strategy and style indices as refined tools for asset allocation, risk management, and style expression amid a backdrop of deepening capital market openness and rising demand for diversified investment tools [2] - Different indices serve distinct purposes: the defensive strategy represented by the CSI Hong Kong 300 Stable Index focuses on fundamentally strong leading companies, showcasing excellent drawdown control and risk-adjusted returns, while the offensive tools like the CSI Hong Kong 200 Momentum Index excel in capturing trends in small and mid-cap stocks [2][2] - The evolution of strategy and style indices from supplementary tools to core components is driven by the need for risk separation and enhanced returns in a market characterized by structural trends and accelerated sector rotation [2] Group 2 - The report outlines the historical performance of various indices, indicating that during the risk-on phase from early 2020 to mid-2021, the defensive strategy indices lagged behind growth indices, reflecting their characteristic of sacrificing return elasticity for risk reduction [28] - In the subsequent market downturn starting mid-2021, the relative advantages of defensive indices became apparent, as they exhibited significantly lower drawdowns compared to growth indices, thus providing effective downside protection [28] - The report notes that in the weak market environment of 2022-2023, defensive indices maintained stronger stability, with their cumulative return curves showing significantly less volatility than growth indices, indicating their effectiveness in achieving relative returns during turbulent periods [28] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of offensive indices, stating that the CSI Hong Kong 300 Dynamic Index outperformed others during the strong risk appetite phase from early 2020 to mid-2021, benefiting from the growth and offensive style-driven bull market [31] - However, as the market transitioned to a downtrend, both the CSI Hong Kong 300 Dynamic and High Beta indices experienced significant drawdowns, with the Dynamic Index showing better resilience due to its composition and risk control mechanisms [31] - The report concludes that the CSI Hong Kong 300 Dynamic Index possesses both elasticity and recovery capability, while the High Beta Index is more sensitive to market fluctuations, leading to greater pressure during downturns [31] Group 4 - The report highlights the performance of the CSI Hong Kong 200 Momentum Index, which excelled during the bullish phase from early 2020 to mid-2021, capturing strong trends and significantly outperforming the Hong Kong 200 parent index [35] - In contrast, during the subsequent market downturn, the Momentum Index faced substantial drawdowns, reflecting the inherent risks of momentum strategies in reversing trends [35] - The report indicates that while the Momentum Index has the potential for excess returns in clear bull markets, it also carries higher drawdown risks in bearish and volatile market conditions [35] Group 5 - The report emphasizes the performance of the CSI Hong Kong 100 Momentum Index, which showed significant outperformance during the bullish phase from early 2020 to mid-2021, capturing strong trends effectively [38] - However, as the market entered a downtrend, the Momentum Index experienced considerable drawdowns, indicating its sensitivity to market reversals [38] - The report concludes that the Momentum strategy's excess returns are primarily concentrated in bull markets, while the equal-weighted and risk-contribution indices serve more as risk diversification tools without consistently outperforming the parent index [38]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates that Shenzhen's GDP is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, with foreign trade increasing by 1.4% despite a decline in exports due to a high base in 2024 [7] - The A-share market is projected to see a 10% profit growth in 2026, driven by cost reductions and the rise of new economy sectors outpacing traditional sectors [8][10] Industry and Company - The North Exchange saw a significant increase in trading activity in January 2026, with a total of 292 listed companies and a market capitalization of 936.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.7% increase [11] - The electric power equipment industry is expected to benefit from strong domestic demand and overseas expansion opportunities, particularly in high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology [14][15] - Yum China reported a 22% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q4 2025, with total revenue reaching $2.823 billion, driven by a 34% increase in delivery sales [19][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-voltage direct current and smart meter sectors, recommending companies like Pinggao Electric and XJ Electric for their growth potential [17] - Anticipate continued overseas expansion for Chinese companies in the electric power sector, suggesting attention to companies like Sifang Co. and Mingyang Smart Energy [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector [5][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the intervention of stabilization funds has become a normalized and institutionalized mechanism in capital markets, which requires institutional investors to adapt their asset allocation strategies to include policy variables for long-term considerations [2][11]. - The shift from direct intervention in individual stocks to a focus on broad-based ETFs represents a strategic evolution aimed at maintaining market stability while minimizing distortions in price signals [3][52]. - The report highlights that the actions of the "national team" in stabilizing the market have led to a gradual formation of a "slow bull" market, improving the operating environment for non-bank financial sectors and enhancing long-term valuations for brokerages and insurance companies [3][12]. Summary by Sections Overseas Perspective - Stabilization funds are viewed as essential stabilizing forces in capital markets, with examples from Japan and the U.S. demonstrating their long-term operational roles rather than short-term emergency measures [2][11]. - Japan's central bank has become a major player in market interventions, with its ETF holdings reaching approximately 37 trillion yen by the end of 2025, indicating a shift to a normalized intervention strategy [14][20]. Domestic Practice - Since 2023, the central financial institutions in China have optimized their strategies by focusing on increasing holdings in broad-based ETFs like the CSI 300 and SSE 50, which has effectively reduced irrational market volatility and guided investors towards core market assets [3][12]. - The report notes that this transition from precise stock interventions to macro-guided asset combinations has laid a solid foundation for a long-term value return in the market [3][12]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, all rated as "Outperform": - China Ping An: EPS 7.87 (2025E), PE 8.56 (2025E) [4] - China Life: EPS 6.07 (2025E), PE 8.02 (2025E) [4] - China Pacific Insurance: EPS 5.40 (2025E), PE 8.28 (2025E) [4] - CITIC Securities: EPS 2.21 (2025E), PE 12.83 (2025E) [4] - Guotai Junan: EPS 1.53 (2025E), PE 13.08 (2025E) [4] - Industrial Securities: EPS 0.39 (2025E), PE 17.69 (2025E) [4] - Dongfang Securities: EPS 0.69 (2025E), PE 14.84 (2025E) [4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月03日 2026年02月04日 2026年02月05日 公用环保行业 2026 年 2 月投资策略 优于大市 两部门发文完善发电侧容量电价机制，公用环保行业 25Q4 基金持仓梳理 市场回顾：本月沪深 300 指数上涨 1.65%，公用事业指数上涨 3.19%，环 保指数上涨 5.94%，月相对收益率分别为 1.54%和 4.29%。申万 31 个一 级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第 21 和第 13 名。电力板 块子板块中，火电上涨 2.60%；水电下跌 1.65%，新能源发电上涨 7.23%； 水务板块上涨 3.96%；燃气板块上涨 7.48%。 重要事件：两部门发文完善发电侧容量电价机制。国家发展改革委和国家能 源局于 2026 年 1 月 30 日联合发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》， 明确电力现货市场连续运行后，有序建立发电侧可靠容量补偿机制，对机组 可靠容量根据顶峰能力按统一原则进行补偿，公平反映不同机组对电力系统 顶峰贡献。各地按照《关于建立煤电容量电价机制的通知》（发改价格〔2023〕 1501 号）要求，将通过容量电价回收煤电机组固定成本的 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 百胜中国（09987.HK） 优于大市 同店收入连续 3 季度正增，2026 年门店扩张提速 2025Q4 归母净利润同增 22%。2025Q4，公司实现收入 28.23 亿美元/+8.8%； 实现经营利润 1.87 亿美元/+23.8%；归母净利润 1.40 亿美元/+21.7%； EPS 为 0.40 美元。分品牌看，2025Q4，肯德基分部收入 21.25 亿美元 /+8.75%；经营利润 2.23 亿美元/+16.1%；经营利润率为 10.5%/+0.7pct。 必胜客分部收入 5.40 亿美元/+5.9%；经营利润 2000 万美元/+42.9%； 经营利润率为 3.7%，同比+1.0pct。分渠道看，外卖收入同增 34%，增 速环比继续上行，餐厅收入占比已达到 53%。 外卖占比提升人工成本上行，餐厅利润率表现优秀。2025Q4，薪金及雇员 福利占比约 29.3%，同比+1.1pct，外卖收入占比提升致外卖骑手成本上 升影响为主；食品及原材料占比为 31.7%，同比-0.2pct；物业租金及其 他经营开支占比约 26.0%，同比-1.6pct，公司餐厅利润 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (09987.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][21]. Core Views - The company has maintained positive same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters, with a projected increase in store expansion in 2026 [4][21]. - For Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of $2.823 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and a net profit of $140 million, up 21.7% [9][10]. - The company is expected to continue its robust growth trajectory, driven by innovations in delivery and product offerings, with a forecasted net increase of over 1,900 stores in 2026 [3][20]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the operating profit was $187 million, reflecting a 23.8% increase year-on-year, with an EPS of $0.40 [9][10]. - The KFC division generated $2.125 billion in revenue, up 8.75%, while the Pizza Hut division saw revenue of $540 million, a 5.9% increase [9][10]. - The overall same-store sales growth was 3%, with KFC and Pizza Hut achieving 3% and 1% growth respectively [10][11]. Store Expansion - The company added 587 new stores in Q4 2025, bringing the total to 18,101 stores by the end of the year, with KFC and Pizza Hut having 12,997 and 4,168 stores respectively [11][20]. - The proportion of franchised stores is increasing, with KFC and Pizza Hut's franchise store ratios reaching 15% and 8% by the end of 2025 [11][20]. Cost and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0%, a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points, driven by revenue leverage [3][18]. - Labor costs accounted for approximately 29.3% of total costs, reflecting a 1.1 percentage point increase year-on-year, primarily due to rising delivery costs [3][18]. Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve a net profit of $1.019 billion in 2026, with projections for 2027 and 2028 at $1.106 billion and $1.170 billion respectively [5][21]. - The anticipated shareholder return for 2026 is approximately $1.5 billion, with expected annual returns of $900 million to over $1 billion for 2027-2028 [3][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The North Exchange's stock market activity has significantly increased, with new stock market funds exceeding 1 trillion [1] - The North Exchange added 5 new listed companies this month, bringing the total to 292, with a total market value of 936.30 billion and a circulating market value of 580.36 billion, reflecting increases of 7.7% and 10.3% respectively [1][13] - The North Exchange's trading volume and amount for the month were 24.52 billion shares and 607.72 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 26.8% in volume and 38.6% in amount [1][16] - The North Exchange 50 Index had a price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 45.96, ranking in the 60.46th percentile over the past two years, and a price-to-book ratio (PB-MRQ) of 9.50, ranking in the 91.10th percentile [2][25] - The North Exchange's various sectors, except for the automotive sector, experienced a general increase in returns this month, with significant gains in media, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, public utilities, and agriculture [32][37] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The North Exchange's trading activity has shown a notable increase, with a monthly trading volume of 24.52 billion shares and a trading amount of 607.72 billion, marking a month-on-month increase of 26.8% and 38.6% respectively [1][16] - The North Exchange's total market value reached 936.30 billion, with a circulating market value of 580.36 billion, reflecting increases of 7.7% and 10.3% respectively [1][13] Valuation - As of January 30, the North Exchange 50 Index's PE-TTM was 45.96, and its PB-MRQ was 9.50, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical data [2][25] - The dividend yield was recorded at 0.72, placing it in the 18.09th percentile over the past two years [2][25] Industry Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a monthly increase of 6.33%, while the specialized index rose by 6.06% [32] - Most sectors saw positive returns, with notable increases in media, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, public utilities, and agriculture [37] - The top-performing stocks this month included Kema Materials, Medela, Aishalon, and Guoliang New Materials [42]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月03日 2026年02月05日 宏观解读报告 经济实现质量提升——深圳市 2025 年经济数据跟踪与解读 经济研究·宏观解读 | 证券分析师： | 薛冰 | 0755-81982126 | xuebing1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524060002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 摘要： 深圳市 2025 年经济稳中有进，实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。2025 年，深圳地区生产总值增长 5.5%， 达到预期增长目标；对外贸易增长 1.4%，出口受 2024 年高基数的影响有所下降，进口持续增长；工业生 产方面，工业增加值保持增长，增速高于广东省水平；投资方面，固定资产投资受房地产开发投资影响有 所下降，增速低于广东省水平；消费方面，社会消费品零售总额平稳增长，占广东省比例有所提升；金融 方面，金融机构存、贷款余额增长快速提升；价格方面，居民消费价格同比增长 ...