证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 11 年 月 日 安踏体育（02020.HK） Q1 流水增长优异，收购 Jack Wolfskin 充实品牌版图 事件：公司发布 2025Q1 经营情况公告，公司整体表现超预期。根据公司披露，2025Q1 安踏品牌流水同比增长高单位数，Fila 品牌流水同比增长高单位数，其他品牌流水同比增长 65%~70%。 安踏品牌：2025Q1 流水稳健增长，库存健康。2025Q1 安踏品牌流水同比增长高单位 数，细分子品牌看我们预计安踏大货/儿童或均有高单位数增长。从渠道层面看，在春节假 期带动下，我们预计安踏电商增长或有双位数，延续 2024 年的快速增长态势。从营运层面 来看，我们预计截至 2025Q1 末安踏品牌库销比在 4~5 之间的健康水平。展望 2025 年， 我们预计安踏品牌仍将通过产品和渠道优化推动增长，2025 年冠军等高层级店型门店数量 或有增长，同时聚焦大众市场的超级安踏单店模型有望得到进一步优化，产品端继续推动 跑鞋、篮球鞋结构优化，推动爆品打造，提升品牌声量。 Fila 品牌：2025Q1 流水增速超预期，儿童、潮牌业务表 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·食物饮品(HS) 农夫山泉（09633.HK） 秉承长期主义，龙头底色不改 2025 年 04 月 10 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 42916 | 42896 | 49488 | 55217 | 60807 | | 同比(%) | 28.13 | (0.05) | 15.37 | 11.58 | 10.12 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 12079 | 12123 | 14148 | 15976 | 17849 | | 同比(%) | 42.19 | 0.36 | 16.70 | 12.92 | 11.72 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.26 | 1.42 | 1.59 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 29.20 | 29.09 | 24.93 | 22.08 | 19.76 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 10 日 [Table_Title] Q1 符合预期，拟收购德国户外品牌 Jack Wolfskin 安踏体育 [Table_Title2] (2020.HK) | 评级： [Table_DataInfo] | 买入 | 股票代码： | 2020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 106.3/65.9 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 2,289.28 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 81.55 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 2,289.28 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,807.21 | 我们分析，（1）美国加税对公司影响不大，海外流水仅占不到 1%。预计 2025 年主品牌收入高单位数增 长、FILA 收入中单位数增长，KOLON 和 DESCENTE 30%增长。根据公司公告，公司计划 25 年底安踏/安踏儿童 /FILA/DESCENTE/KOLON 店数分别为 6900-7000/260 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The report highlights TCL Electronics' confidence in its operational performance through a share incentive plan linked to adjusted net profit growth targets for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1][2] - The adjusted net profit targets for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are set at HKD 23.28 billion, HKD 28.10 billion, and HKD 32.12 billion respectively, representing growth rates of 45%, 75%, and 100% compared to 2024 [2] - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% for adjusted net profit from 2024 to 2027 [2] - TCL Electronics is positioned as a leading player in the global television industry, with a focus on high-end products and global operations, which is expected to drive steady market share expansion [3] Summary by Sections Share Incentive Plan - The company plans to grant 91.4979 million shares to 860 management and key personnel, with performance conditions tied to adjusted net profit growth [1] - The share unlock schedule is 40% in 2025, 30% in 2026, and 30% in 2027 [1] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 23.4 billion, HKD 28.2 billion, and HKD 32.6 billion respectively, reflecting an upward revision due to the incentive plan [3] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 8.9x, 7.4x, and 6.4x for the respective years [3] Market Position and Strategy - TCL Electronics is enhancing its global industrial layout and shifting from product output to local industrial capability building, which is expected to improve production and sales coordination [2] - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing efforts to solidify growth in areas beyond its main television business, including solar energy and internet services [3]

公 司 研 究 / 上 市 公 司 2025 年 04 月 10 日 现代牧业 (01117) ——2025 奶价有望企稳回升 轻装上阵业绩有望改善 报告原因：首次覆盖 增持（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 10 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 1.12 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7668.38 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 1.31/0.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 88.66 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 7,915.66 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0764 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg -10% 90% 04/10 05/10 06/10 07/10 08/10 09/10 10/10 11/10 12/10 01/10 02/10 03/10 04/10 HSCEI 现代牧业 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 363 billion yuan for self-invested projects in Q1 2025, with a cumulative total of 524 billion yuan for the group [2]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1585.46 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.96 billion yuan, down 48.8% year-on-year [2]. - The company's property sales revenue reached 1470.2 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 92.7% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 21.9% [3]. - The decline in net profit was primarily due to losses from joint ventures and increased impairment provisions [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The total contract sales amount for 2024 was 2768 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year, with self-invested sales amounting to 1718 billion yuan, down 11.6% [3]. - The company maintained a high sales return rate of 104% in 2024, supporting cash flow and reinvestment [3]. Investment Strategy - In 2024, the company added 42 new projects with a land acquisition amount of 484 billion yuan, expected to generate a new value of 1088 billion yuan [4]. - The focus on core cities resulted in 92% of land acquisition value being in first and second-tier cities, with 51% in key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou [4]. Financial Health - The company issued 125.31 billion yuan in domestic bonds in 2024 and completed an overseas financing swap of 820 million USD, maintaining a low financing cost of 3.7% [4]. - The projected net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is adjusted to 18.3 billion yuan, 23.0 billion yuan, and 27.4 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 14.6%, 25.7%, and 19.1% [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13.2, 10.5, and 8.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [3][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue and gross margin performance in 2025, with a target price set at HKD 16.25, indicating a potential upside of 11.9% from the current closing price of HKD 14.52 [2][8]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 28.68 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, primarily driven by a 7% increase in footwear sales [8][14]. - The gross margin improved by 1 percentage point to 49.4%, attributed to better discount management in e-commerce channels and enhanced efficiency in direct sales channels [8][14]. - The management announced a dividend of RMB 0.5848 per share, increasing the payout ratio to 50% [8][14]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 29.08 billion in 2025, RMB 30.81 billion in 2026, and RMB 32.86 billion in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 1.4%, 5.9%, and 6.6% respectively [5][14]. - Net profit is expected to decline slightly to RMB 2.97 billion in 2025, with a net profit margin of 10.2% [5][14]. - The company plans to optimize its product mix and maintain or slightly improve gross margins despite external uncertainties [8][14]. Performance Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.15 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.9 [5][14]. - The dividend yield is expected to be around 4.2% in 2025, increasing to 5.5% by 2027 [5][14]. - The company’s cash and cash equivalents are projected to grow from RMB 5.44 billion in 2023 to RMB 10.65 billion in 2027 [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 60, indicating a potential upside of 55% from the current price of HKD 38.7 [2][5]. Core Insights - The commercialization of CM310 is progressing well, with satisfactory sales performance in the first quarter. The company aims to expand its commercialization team from over 300 to 500 by the end of 2025, focusing on hospital access and negotiations for insurance coverage [3]. - The next-generation dual antibody CM512 is a key product in the pipeline, with Phase 1 data expected in Q3 2025. The company is also advancing multiple overseas clinical trials, with data readouts anticipated in 2026 [4]. - The company has set a sales guidance of RMB 500 million for the year, with significant contributions expected in the second half [3]. Summary by Sections Commercialization Progress - CM310's commercialization team is currently over 300 members, with plans to expand to 500 by the end of 2025. The team is focused on increasing hospital access and engaging with dermatologists and ENT specialists [3]. - The first quarter sales performance was satisfactory, with 29 provinces already having access to CM310. The pricing strategy positions CM310 competitively against existing treatments [3]. Pipeline Development - CM512 is positioned as a next-generation long-acting autoimmune drug, with global development progress ranking second only to a competitor. The company is focusing on autoimmune and respiratory indications [4]. - The company is also initiating overseas clinical trials for several molecules, with data expected as early as next year [4][10]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 354 million in 2023, increasing to RMB 2.249 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 46% [12][14]. - The company anticipates a net loss that narrows over the forecast period, with a projected loss of RMB 595 million by 2027 [12][14].

证 券 研 究 报 告 太古地产（01972.HK）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 重奢运营久久为功，26 年租金有望再迎增长 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | | | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万港元) | 14,428 | 14,616 | | | 14,995 | 18,638 | | 同比增速(%) | -2.1% | 1.3% | | | 2.6% | 24.3% | | 归母净利润(百万港元) | -766 | 2,605 | | | 4,118 | 5,679 | | 同比增速(%) | -129.0% | 440.1% | | | 58.1% | 37.9% | | 每股盈利(港元) | -0.13 | 0.45 | | | 0.71 | 0.98 | | 市盈率(倍) | -117.1 | 33.5 | | | 21.8 | 15.8 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.3 | 0.3 | | | 0.3 | 0.3 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transitioned to quality education, which is expected to support revenue growth. In 2024, it achieved a revenue of 1.1 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of 125.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 190 million HKD, up 110.9% year-on-year [4][6]. - The company's contract liabilities at the end of 2024 were 600 million HKD, a year-on-year increase of 184.3%, which is anticipated to support revenue growth in 2025. The introduction of AI products is expected to enhance efficiency for both teachers and students [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company generated revenue of 1.1 billion HKD, with segments of quality education, full-time review, and tutoring contributing 710 million, 210 million, and 180 million HKD respectively, showing year-on-year growth rates of 411.7%, 1%, and 25.2% [6]. - The net profit for 2024 was 190 million HKD, with a lower growth rate compared to revenue due to adjustments in revenue structure leading to a decline in gross margin and an increase in sales and management expense ratios [6]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.02 billion, 2.28 billion, and 2.54 billion HKD for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 320 million, 380 million, and 420 million HKD [7][8]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9x, 8x, and 7x respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7][8]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leader in K12 education in South China, successfully expanding its market presence in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan. The increasing demand for education in the Greater Bay Area is expected to enhance its competitive position [7].