2025 年 05 月 05 日 经营节奏边际调整，价盘企稳回升 —中炬高新（600872.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 2025 年 4 月 29 日，中炬高新发布 2025 年一季报。2025Q1 营 收 11.02 亿元（同减 26%），归母净利润 1.81 亿元（同减 24%），扣非归母净利润 1.80 亿元（同减 24%）。 投资要点 ▌成本下降优化毛利，广宣费投提升 2025Q1 毛利率同增 2pct 至 38.73%，主要系原材料价格下降 所 致 。销售 / 管 理 费 用 率 分 别 同 增 1pct/2pct 至 8.62%/8.07%，主要系公司战略性调控大单品费用投入，同时 收入下滑致使费用率摊薄效果减弱。2025Q1 净利率同减 1pct 至 16.46%。 ▌库存去化顺利，价盘企稳回升 2025Q1 酱油/鸡精鸡粉/食用油营收分别为 6.48/1.30/0.51 亿元，分别同减 32%/29%/50%，主要系春节错期下，公司调 整供货节奏，同时以稳价盘为中心推进去库调整。二季度以 来公司降幅收窄，库存恢复至良性水平，公司逐步向终端释 放促销资源，主品价盘企稳回升，此外， ...

| 静待渠道调整见效 | | --- | ——中炬高新 25Q1 点评 中炬高新（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600872） 主要观点： ⚫ 收入：春节错期+渠道调整拖累 ⚫ 盈利：规模效应+费投力度提升 ➢ Q1 毛利率同比提升 1.8pct 至 38.7%，主因原材料成本下行、供应 链优化带来生产费用及物流成本下降。同期，销售/管理费率分别同 比上升 0.9pct/1.7pct，规模效应走弱，叠加渠道费用投入力度加大 是主因。综上，公司归母净利率同比提升 0.3pct 至 16.4%。 ⚫ 投资建议：维持"买入"评级 -55% -35% -15% 6% 26% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 中炬高新 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 邮箱：zhengshaoxuan@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.中炬高新 24Q3：盈利改善超预期 2024-10-26 2.静待改善 ...

中炬高新（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600872） | 静待渠道调整见效 | | --- | ——中炬高新 25Q1 点评 主要观点： ⚫ 收入：春节错期+渠道调整拖累 ⚫ 盈利：规模效应+费投力度提升 ➢ Q1 毛利率同比提升 1.8pct 至 38.7%，主因原材料成本下行、供应 链优化带来生产费用及物流成本下降。同期，销售/管理费率分别同 比上升 0.9pct/1.7pct，规模效应走弱，叠加渠道费用投入力度加大 是主因。综上，公司归母净利率同比提升 0.3pct 至 16.4%。 ⚫ 投资建议：维持"买入"评级 ➢ 我们的观点： 我们预计 25 年公司经营节奏前低后高，渠道库存持续去化下，H2 有望迎来环比经营改善。渠道端，聚焦传统渠道下沉+电商扩大曝 光；产品端，新品积极推广，同时通过产业并购补齐品类短板。全 年收入有望实现稳健增长。 盈利预测：考虑到公司渠道库存去化进度，我们更新盈利预测，预 计 2025-2027 年公司实现营业总收入 58.0/62.1/67.3 亿元（25-26 年原值为 59.7/66.6 亿元），同比增长 5.1%/7.0%/8.5%；实现归母 ...

2025 年 5 月 3 日 公司研究 25Q1 业绩承压，关注后续经营改善节奏 ——中炬高新（600872.SH）2025 年一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：19.29 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.83 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 151.08 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 16.08/30.20 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 77.88% | 股价相对走势 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -4.37 | -6.52 | -37.70 | | 绝对 | -7.30 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a decline in performance due to proactive adjustments, with expectations for the release of reform benefits [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant drop in revenue and net profit, attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival and strategic adjustments in inventory and expenses [7] - The company is focusing on channel reforms and promotional plans to stimulate growth in key markets [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 5,139 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.78% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1,696.95 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a substantial increase of 386.53% compared to the previous year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 2.17 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.90 [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are adjusted to 54 billion yuan, 59 billion yuan, and 64 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.7%, +8.2%, and +9.6% [7] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are revised to 8.5 billion yuan, 9.5 billion yuan, and 10.7 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -4.8%, +12.3%, and +12.3% [7] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 19.29 yuan, with a market capitalization of 15,108.36 million yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.60 and a net asset value per share of 7.41 yuan [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on revenue and profit due to ongoing reforms, with expectations for improvement as the effects of these reforms are realized [4][5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in revenue and net profit, primarily attributed to a downturn in the seasoning business [4][5] - The company is focused on both organic growth and strategic acquisitions to support long-term development [7] Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue and net profit were 1.1 billion and 180 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25.8% and 24.2% [4] - The decline in revenue was influenced by several factors, including early inventory stocking for the Spring Festival and adjustments in supply chain management [5] - Revenue from key products such as soy sauce, chicken essence, and cooking oil saw year-on-year declines of 31.6%, 28.6%, and 50.0%, respectively [5] Profitability Analysis - The company's net profit margin decreased by 1.17 percentage points to 16.5% in Q1 2025, while the gross margin improved by 1.75 percentage points due to lower raw material costs [6] - The company managed to reduce absolute values of sales, management, and R&D expenses, primarily through decreased promotional costs and energy consumption [6] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 920 million, 990 million, and 1.12 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates [4] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.4, 15.3, and 13.5 times, respectively [4][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing brand enhancement through celebrity endorsements and is focusing on acquisition opportunities to fill product gaps [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million yuan, down 24.2% year-on-year [1][2]. - The revenue decline is attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival, adjustments in supply chain management, and strategic control over major product expenditures to stabilize market pricing [2][3]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and expects improvements from ongoing adjustments and potential acquisitions [3][4]. Revenue Breakdown - Product revenue for Q1 2025: soy sauce (650 million yuan, -31.6%), chicken essence (130 million yuan, -28.6%), cooking oil (50 million yuan, -50.0%), and other products (200 million yuan, -6.9%) [2]. - Regional revenue: Eastern region (190 million yuan, -47.7%), Southern region (420 million yuan, -19.6%), Central and Western regions (230 million yuan, -29.1%), Northern region (180 million yuan, -18.7%) [2]. - Channel revenue: distribution (970 million yuan, -30.7%) and direct sales (60 million yuan, +33.3%) [2]. Profitability Analysis - The company achieved a gross margin of 38.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, due to lower costs of soybeans and packaging materials, as well as improved production efficiency [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 16.4%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit margin also at 16.4%, up 0.4 percentage points [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth driven by both internal and external factors, with ongoing reforms, expansion into traditional and e-commerce channels, and new product promotions [3][4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.72 billion yuan, 6.25 billion yuan, and 6.82 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.6%, 9.2%, and 9.2% [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [3][22]. Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue decline of 25.81% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.102 billion yuan and a net profit of 181 million yuan, down 24.24% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights that the company is focusing on channel optimization and inventory digestion to alleviate pressure from previous high inventory levels, with expectations for gradual recovery in the latter half of the year [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5.519 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.933 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5% [2][11]. - Net profit is expected to stabilize around 894 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a slight increase from 893 million yuan in 2024 [2][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to remain at 1.14 yuan for 2025, with gradual increases to 1.27 yuan in 2026 and 1.41 yuan in 2027 [2][11]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 17 in 2025 to 14 in 2027, indicating a potential for valuation recovery as the company improves its fundamentals [2][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is adjusting its supply chain and pricing strategies, particularly in the southern and eastern regions, to address market challenges and improve sales performance [2][3]. - The report notes a net increase of 118 distributors in Q1 2025, indicating ongoing efforts to expand market reach despite current challenges [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival, proactive inventory adjustments, and a high comparative base from Q1 2024 [1][2]. Revenue Summary - Q1 2025 revenue reached 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.8%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 180 million yuan, down 24.2% [1]. - Revenue breakdown by product: soy sauce (650 million yuan, -31.6%), chicken essence/chicken powder (130 million yuan, -28.6%), cooking oil (50 million yuan, -50.0%), and other income (200 million yuan, -6.9%) [1]. - Revenue by sales model: distribution (970 million yuan, -30.7%) and direct sales (60 million yuan, +33.3%) [1]. - Revenue by region: Eastern (190 million yuan, -47.7%), Southern (420 million yuan, -19.6%), Central and Western (230 million yuan, -29.0%), and Northern (180 million yuan, -18.7%) [1]. Profitability Analysis - The company maintained a gross margin improvement trend, with Q1 2025 gross margin at 38.7%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Expense ratios for Q1 2025: sales (8.6%), management (8.1%), R&D (2.9%), and financial (0.3%), with increases in sales and management expenses [2]. - Net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 16.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with the non-recurring net profit margin also at 16.4%, up 0.4 percentage points [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue growth following regional adjustments, projecting revenues of 5.66 billion yuan, 5.89 billion yuan, and 6.30 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.5%, 4.1%, and 6.9% [2]. - Expected net profits for the same years are 960 million yuan, 1.04 billion yuan, and 1.13 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 6.9%, 8.4%, and 9.3% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.2 yuan, 1.3 yuan, and 1.4 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with year-on-year changes of -25.94% and -27.61% respectively, but profit margins remained relatively stable [1][3] - The company is expected to continue its reform efforts, which are anticipated to accelerate, alongside increased mergers and acquisitions and channel expansion, leading to steady revenue growth [1][3] - The main product line, 美味鲜, is projected to benefit from cost reductions and the recovery of minority stakes, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [1][3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.101 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million, reflecting declines of 25.81% and 24.24% year-on-year respectively [3][4] - The gross margin improved to 38.73%, up 1.75 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material costs [3][4] - The company added 118 new distributors in Q1 2025, continuing its strategy of expanding market coverage and penetration [3][4] Future Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 5.139 billion in 2023 to 6.862 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% [4][12] - The net profit is expected to recover from 893 million in 2024 to 1.120 billion by 2027, indicating a gradual improvement in profitability [4][12] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 1.14 in 2024 to 1.43 by 2027, reflecting positive growth trends [4][12]