证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 10 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 电力设备行业数据点评 2024 年特高压设备招标 271.6 亿，关注 2025 年电网建设加速 相关研究： ❑ 2025 年国网总部采购安排发布，电网建设有望进一步加速 2024 年我国电网基本建设投资完成额达到 6083 亿元，同比增长 15.26%， 增速同比上升 9.86pct。2024 年国家发改委、能源局先后发布《关于新形 势下配电网高质量发展的指导意见》、《关于做好新能源消纳工作 保障新能 源高质量发展》、《配电网高质量发展行动实施方案（2024—2027 年），叠 加设备更新政策，电网投资迎来新一轮景气周期。根据国家电网，2025 年 电网建设将聚焦优化主电网、补强配电网、服务新能源高质量发展，推进 重大项目实施，预计 2025 年全年国家电网投资将首次超过 6500 亿元。近 期，国家电网发布 2025 年度总部集中采购批次安排。其中，特高压设备安 排 6 批次、特高压材料安排 5 批次、特高压服务安排 12 批次。展望 2025 年，电网是电力资源配置和新能源消纳的关键基础设施，2025 年作为"十 四五"收官之年，电 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2024, with a projected net profit of approximately 1.26 billion to 1.48 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 70% [1]. - The industry demand is recovering, driven by domestic machinery updates and policies, with excavator and loader sales expected to grow by 11.7% and decline by 3.9%, respectively [2]. - The company is enhancing its profitability through dual drivers of electrification and internationalization, with overseas revenue increasing significantly from 3.38 billion yuan in 2020 to 11.46 billion yuan in 2023 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - For 2024-2026, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 28.89 billion, 31.66 billion, and 35.17 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.0%, 9.6%, and 11.1% respectively [10]. - The net profit is expected to be 1.43 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.20 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 64.9%, 25.5%, and 22.7% respectively [10]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.44 yuan in 2023 to 1.13 yuan in 2026 [10]. Industry Analysis - The domestic demand for earth-moving machinery is stabilizing, with a recovery trend observed in the market [2]. - The company is responding to both domestic and international market opportunities by enhancing operational efficiency and implementing strategic innovations [2]. Internationalization and Electrification - The company is deepening its international presence through local production and R&D facilities, resulting in a significant increase in overseas revenue share [3]. - The sales of electric loaders in China are projected to grow by 211.8% in 2024, with the market share rising from 3.5% in 2023 to 10.4% in 2024 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Shenhua is "Accumulate" (maintained) [8] Core Views - China Shenhua's 2024 performance is expected to be stable, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 57 billion to 60 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% to an increase of 0.5% [3][4] - The coal division's profit decline is the main factor affecting the overall net profit due to a decrease in average coal sales prices [4] - The company has announced a high dividend payout policy, distributing no less than 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in cash for the years 2022-2024, with an increase to 65% for 2025-2027, highlighting its investment value [7][9] Summary by Sections Recent Company Performance - Over the past 12 months, China Shenhua has experienced a relative return of -8.25% over one month, 0.78% over three months, and -11.40% over twelve months compared to the CSI 300 index [2] 2024 Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 57 billion to 60 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 27 million to an increase of 3 million yuan year-on-year [4] - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 58.5 billion and 61.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.0% to an increase of 2.2% [4] Coal Production and Sales - In 2024, the company anticipates a coal production of 327 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a sales volume of 459 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [5] - The fourth quarter saw a decline in sales volume due to lower-than-expected demand from a warm winter [5] Acquisition and Resource Expansion - The acquisition of 100% equity in Hangjin Energy for 853 million yuan will increase the company's coal reserves by 3.841 billion tons and the recoverable reserves by 2.087 billion tons, enhancing its competitive edge in the energy supply [6] Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a stable and predictable profit distribution policy, which is expected to attract long-term capital and enhance investment value [7][9] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 57.1 billion, 56.9 billion, and 58 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.88, 2.87, and 2.92 yuan [9]

证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 05 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业周报 1 月我国 PMI 为 49.1%，同比下降 0.1 个百分点 ——机械行业周报（01.27~02.02） 相关研究： 1《. 20250113湘财证券-机械行业：24 年11月全球半导体销售578亿美元， 同比增长21%》 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621) 50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 上周机械设备行业下跌 2.2%，跑输大盘 1.7 个百分点 上周，机械设备行业下跌 2.2%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.7 个百分点。机 械行业中表现较好细分板块为工程机械整机（0.1%）、能源及重型设备 （0.0%）、轨交设备Ⅲ（-0.5%），表现靠后细分板块分别为机器人（-6.2%）、 其他自动化设备（-5.0%）、激光设备（-4.2%）。 ❑ 通用设备：1 月份我国制造业 PMI 为 49.1%，同比下降 0.1 个百分点 2.《20250120湘财证券-机械行业： 2024年12月 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 05 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 房地产行业数据点评 1 月新房成交下滑，二手市场保持活跃 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 1 月受春节假期影响，新房成交显著下降，二手房成交仍保持正增长 30 个大中城市 1 月商品房成交面积同比-16.4%，主要受春节假期影响（去 年春节在 2 月份）。分城市看，30 个大中城市的一线、二线和三线城市 1 月商品房成交面积同比分别为-4.2%、-29.1%和+1.8%。 从成交面积绝对值看，30 大中城市 1 月成交面积处于近五年同期最低水平， 年初新房成交较弱一方面受去年末房企推盘冲量及需求集中释放影响，另 一方面是春节假期影响。分城市看，此前表现较好的一线城市 1 月新房成 交面积也仅高于基数较低的 2020 年；二线城市需求最弱，处于近五年同期 最低；三线城市略高于 2024 年同期水平。二手房方面，我们监测的 13 个 城市 1 月成交面积同比+2.3%，在春节假期影响下仍然保持了正增长，二 手市场热度依然较高。 库存水平下降，去化周期小幅回升。根据 Wind 数据，1 月末十大城市商品 房可售面积为 7903 万平米（同比-7. ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 5 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 电力行业数据点评 2024 年风光新增 357.8GW，电网投资展现高景气 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 2024 年全年风光新增 357.8GW，占新增装机总比重为 82.6% 2024 年 1-12 月，全国规模以上电厂发电新增设备容量 43323 万千瓦，同比 增长 17.38%。其中，水电新增 1378 万千瓦，同比增长 33.25%；火电新增 5771 万千瓦，同比减少 12.12%；核电新增 393 万千瓦，同比增长 183.02%； 风电新增 7982 万千瓦，同比增长 5.5%；光伏新增 27798 万千瓦，同比增 长 28.17%。2024 年风光合计新增 357.8 吉瓦，占新增装机总比重为 82.6%。 光伏产业链上游硅料、组件价格逐渐触底。截至 2025 年 1 月 20 日，国产 多晶硅料(一级料)现货价为 5.29 美元/千克，周环比持平，同比下降 35.2%； 光伏行业组件综合价格指数(SPI)为 13.67，周环比持平，同比下降 19.59%。 ❑ 风光累计装机比重达 42% 截至 2024 年 12 月末，全 ...

近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 12 37 26 绝对收益 8 35 43 证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 06 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土永磁行业周报 节前行业小幅上涨，成本端支撑尚可，钕铁硼价格趋稳 相关研究： | 《上周行业延续反弹，成本端坚挺支撑下钕 | | | --- | --- | | 铁硼跟涨上调》 | 20250122 | | 《上周行业大幅反弹，钕铁硼价格跟随成本 | | | 端波动》 | 20250114 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： 轻稀土矿方面，节前一周国内混合碳酸稀土矿、四川氟碳铈矿及山东氟碳 铈矿价格分别持平于 2.3 万元/吨、2 万元/吨和 1.5 万元/吨，进口独居石 矿价格周环比上涨 1.57%至 3.89 万元/吨，美国矿价格持平于 1.9 万元/吨。 中重稀土矿方面， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Weigao Orthopedics (688161 SH) for the first time [3][7] Core Views - Weigao Orthopedics' revenue and net profit have fully recovered and exceeded expectations in Q3 2024 [3] - Q1-Q3 revenue reached RMB 1 083 million up 0 07% YoY - Q1-Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 164 million up 34 66% YoY - Q3 revenue reached RMB 333 million up 20 06% YoY - Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 71 1633 million up 594 19% YoY - The company has significantly improved its sales and distribution capabilities with multiple product lines showing substantial sales growth [4] - Spine product line sales volume increased 36 17% YoY in Q1-Q3 - Trauma product line sales revenue increased 16 25% and sales volume increased 18 45% YoY in Q1-Q3 - Joint product line sales revenue increased 23 12% and sales volume increased over 27 37% YoY in Q1-Q3 - Sports medicine product line sales revenue reached RMB 28 538 million up over 11 times YoY in Q1-Q3 - The company is actively expanding overseas business with rapid growth [5] - Overseas trade increased 52% YoY - Focused on regional strategies and product registration in key countries - The company has diversified its R&D layout with multiple new products approved [6] - New products include "Occipitocervicothoracic Posterior Spinal Fixation System" "Plasma Surgical Equipment" and "Disposable Annulus Fibrosus Suture Device" Financial Forecasts - Revenue and profit projections for 2024-2026 [7][10] - 2024E revenue: RMB 1 418 million (+10 4% YoY) - 2025E revenue: RMB 1 680 million (+18 5% YoY) - 2026E revenue: RMB 2 016 million (+20 0% YoY) - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 232 million (+106 9% YoY) - 2025E net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 310 million (+33 5% YoY) - 2026E net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 360 million (+16 1% YoY) - Valuation metrics [7][10] - 2024E EPS: RMB 0 58 - 2025E EPS: RMB 0 78 - 2026E EPS: RMB 0 90 - 2024E PE: 49 69x - 2025E PE: 37 22x - 2026E PE: 32 07x Financial Performance - Key financial indicators for 2023A and 2024-2026E [10][13] - Gross margin: 66 5% (2023A) 64 7% (2024E) 64 5% (2025E) 64 4% (2026E) - ROE: 2 9% (2023A) 5 8% (2024E) 7 4% (2025E) 8 1% (2026E) - Net profit margin: 8 8% (2023A) 16 4% (2024E) 18 5% (2025E) 17 9% (2026E) - ROIC: 4 5% (2023A) 10 1% (2024E) 12 0% (2025E) 14 6% (2026E)