1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index and Wind All - A Index rising, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 1.32%. The equity and convertible bond markets fluctuated at high levels with weaker overall gains than in Q3. The conversion premium rate increased from 44.73% on September 30 to 46.57% on December 31 [1][10]. - At the end of Q4 2025, the scale of convertible bonds held by funds decreased, but the proportion of the market value of convertible bonds held by funds to the balance of the convertible bond market increased. Different - type funds had differentiated changes in the scale of convertible bonds held, with mixed - bond - type secondary funds increasing their holdings and passive - index - type bond funds reducing their holdings [2][11]. - Convertible bond funds' scale increased quarter - on - quarter. Their performance was weaker than the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind All - A Index in Q4 2025. The average return rate was 0.86%, and the median return rate was 1.09% [3][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Q4 Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.22%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.01%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.32%. The conversion premium rate increased from 44.73% on September 30 to 46.57% on December 31 [1][10]. 3.2 Fund Holding Convertible Bond Behavior Analysis 3.2.1 Fund Holding Convertible Bond Total Scale Change - By the end of Q4 2025, the balance of the convertible bond market was 552.999 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.551 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter. The scale of newly issued convertible bonds was 15.035 billion yuan. The scale of convertible bonds held by funds was 308.256 billion yuan, a reduction of 8.362 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter, a 2.64% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The proportion of the market value of convertible bonds held by funds to the balance of the convertible bond market was 55.74%, a 3.71 - percentage - point increase from the end of Q3 2025 [11]. 3.2.2 Various Funds' Holding Convertible Bond Scale Change - In Q4 2025, mixed - bond - type secondary funds held the largest scale of convertible bonds (110.566 billion yuan), followed by mixed - bond - type primary funds (66.391 billion yuan) and passive - index - type bond funds (60.141 billion yuan). Mixed - bond - type secondary funds increased their holdings by 39.28 billion yuan, and mixed - bond - type primary funds increased by 16.07 billion yuan. Passive - index - type bond funds reduced their holdings by 90.87 billion yuan, and other types of funds also had different changes in holdings [15][19]. 3.2.3 Fund Positioning Behavior Analysis - **Fund Positioning Industry Distribution**: The top five industries with the largest scale of convertible bonds held in Q4 2025 were banking (55.014 billion yuan), power equipment (47.634 billion yuan), basic chemicals (24.739 billion yuan), electronics (24.298 billion yuan), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (17.188 billion yuan). Non - ferrous metals had the largest reduction in holdings (4.636 billion yuan), and the electronics industry had a relatively large increase in holdings (2.853 billion yuan) [23][24]. - **Fund Positioning Individual Bond Distribution**: Among the top 5 convertible bonds held by funds, 3 were bank - related (Industrial Bank Convertible Bond, Shanghai Bank Convertible Bond, and Chongqing Bank Convertible Bond). Industrial Bank Convertible Bond had the largest increase in holdings (1.905 billion yuan) [29][30]. - **Fund Holding Convertible Bond Rating**: AA - rated convertible bonds had the highest proportion (30.81%) among those held by funds [33]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Fund Holding Convertible Bond Behavior Analysis 3.3.1 Convertible Bond Fund Scale Change - By the end of Q4 2025, there were 38 existing convertible bond funds, with a holding scale of 51.287 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 2.15 billion yuan [34]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bond Fund Positioning Behavior Analysis - **Convertible Bond Fund Positioning Industry Distribution**: The convertible bond funds held the largest market value of convertible bonds in the power equipment industry (7.331 billion yuan). The banking industry had the largest increase in holdings (659 million yuan), and non - ferrous metals had the largest reduction in holdings (1.553 billion yuan) [35]. - **Convertible Bond Fund Performance**: In Q4 2025, the average return rate of convertible bond funds was 0.86%, the median return rate was 1.09%, and the average return rate of the top - ten convertible bond funds was 2.79%. Their performance was weaker than the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind All - A Index [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that corporate loans act as a stabilizing force, while real estate loans continue to experience negative growth. The total new RMB loans in 2025 reached 16.27 trillion, a decrease of 1.82 trillion year-on-year, with a year-end loan balance growth rate of 6.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter and 1.2 percentage points from the beginning of the year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Corporate Loans - By the end of 2025, corporate loan balances grew by 8.9% year-on-year, with a total of 15.2 trillion in new corporate loans, an increase of 1.3 trillion compared to the previous year. Key sectors such as technology, inclusive finance, and green finance maintained double-digit growth rates [5]. - The manufacturing sector saw a slight slowdown in medium to long-term loans, with a year-end balance growth of 6.6%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - High-tech enterprise loans reached a balance of 18.61 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, and small and medium-sized technology enterprise loans grew by 19.8% [5]. - Green loans maintained a growth rate of over 20%, with a year-end balance growth of 20.2% and a total of 7.7 trillion in new green loans for the year [5]. Real Estate Loans - By the end of 2025, real estate loan balances experienced a negative growth of 1.6%, dropping below 52 trillion, with a total decrease of 0.96 trillion for the year. The fourth quarter alone saw a reduction of 0.88 trillion [7][9]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on real estate loans in 2026 due to weak sales and high market inventory, alongside downward pressure on real estate prices [7]. Household Loans - Household loan balances grew by only 0.5% year-on-year, with a total increase of 0.44 trillion for the year, reflecting a decline in consumer demand [8][10]. - Business loans for households increased by 4%, but overall household loans saw a significant decrease in growth momentum, particularly in non-housing consumer loans, which grew by only 0.7% [10][15]. Infrastructure Loans - Infrastructure medium to long-term loans reached a balance of 43.7 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. The fourth quarter saw a significant increase in the proportion of infrastructure loans within corporate medium to long-term loans [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [1] Core Insights - The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has demonstrated significant resilience and competitive strength, achieving top-tier performance among state-owned enterprises for four consecutive years [4] - The strategic goal for the next five years is to fully realize high-quality development by 2030 and to establish a world-class enterprise [5] - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness and fulfill its responsibilities in ensuring national energy security and advancing modernization [6] Summary by Sections Strategic Goals - CNPC's chairman emphasized the importance of strategic goals to empower a better life through energy security, highlighting the company's achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4] - The company plans to implement a dual-phase strategy to achieve high-quality development and establish itself as a world-class enterprise by 2030 [6] Operational Highlights - In 2024, CNPC is projected to achieve a domestic crude oil production of 106.15 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, and a natural gas production of 158.6 billion cubic meters, up 3.8% [8] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure in the refining and chemical sectors, with plans to produce over 2 million tons of new materials in 2024 [8] Reform and Transformation - CNPC is actively pursuing reforms to enhance its governance and operational efficiency, including the implementation of a divisional system to improve management effectiveness [9] - The company is committed to deepening its technological innovation and digital transformation to lead in smart development [9] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on several entities under CNPC, including China National Petroleum, Kunlun Energy, and China Oil Engineering, which are expected to benefit from the integrated advantages of the CNPC [10]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The profit cycle for industrial enterprises has entered an upward channel, with significant year-on-year profit growth in December despite high base pressure, indicating a recovery in volume, price, and profit margins [2] - Profit growth is primarily driven by upstream non-ferrous metals and midstream equipment manufacturing, linked to tightening global resource competition and effective domestic policies [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, a rebound in PPI readings and stabilization in investment are expected to support continued recovery in industrial profits, with profit distribution increasingly favoring midstream and upstream sectors [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The results of the mechanism electricity price bidding for new energy projects show significant differentiation, with some provinces still having downward space for future electricity prices [4] - Existing projects are seeing improved cash flow, and attention is drawn to the valuation recovery of leading companies in the sector [4] - The integration of wind, solar, hydrogen, and methanol is identified as a core path for new energy operators to explore a second growth curve [4] Group 3: Company Research - Anta Sports (2020.HK) plans to acquire a 29.06% stake in PUMA for a total consideration of €1.5 billion, funded by its own resources, with a PE ratio of 15 times based on PUMA's 2024 net profit [6] - This acquisition marks a significant milestone in Anta's multi-brand and global strategy, positioning the company as a minority shareholder in a leading global sports brand [6] - The EPS estimates for Anta for 2025-2027 are maintained at 4.69, 5.10, and 5.67 RMB, with a PE ratio of 15, 13, and 12 times respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [6] Group 4: Sector Focus - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) is focusing on a new industrial structure characterized by "one base, two wings, three chains, and four new" as part of its strategic development for 2026 [5] - The company benefits from an integrated full industrial chain advantage, with recommendations to focus on Sinopec, Sinopec Oilfield Service, and other related entities [5] - The report highlights the achievements of Sinopec in 2025 and outlines the goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of capital expenditure and price stability in oil and gas [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [1] Core Views - Anta Sports announced its intention to acquire a 29.06% stake in PUMA SE for €15.06 billion (approximately ¥122.8 billion), at a price of €35 per share, representing a 62% premium over PUMA's closing price on January 26 [5] - The acquisition is seen as a significant milestone in Anta's multi-brand globalization strategy, enhancing its brand portfolio and market presence in Europe and globally [7][8] - PUMA, a globally recognized sports brand, faced challenges in 2025, with a revenue decline of 8.5% in the first three quarters, leading to a net loss of €3.1 billion [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Anta Sports is a leading global sports goods company with a diverse brand portfolio including Anta, Fila, Descente, and Amer Sports [7] - The acquisition of PUMA will complement Anta's existing brands and enhance its competitive position in the global sports market [8] Financial Performance - PUMA's revenue for 2024 was €8.82 billion (approximately ¥72.73 billion) with a net profit of €340 million (about ¥2.82 billion), reflecting a net profit margin of 3.9% [6] - Anta's projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at ¥4.69, ¥5.10, and ¥5.67 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [9] Strategic Implications - The acquisition is expected to leverage Anta's experience in brand management and retail operations to revitalize PUMA's brand value and market presence, particularly in China where PUMA's market share is currently low [8] - Anta aims to enhance its influence in the global sports market through this strategic investment, following its previous acquisition of Amer Sports [7][8]

2026 年 1 月 27 日 总量研究 "4.5%至 5%"的预期与长债的收益率 ——2026 年 1 月 27 日利率债观察 要点 1、"4.5%至 5%"的预期与长债的收益率 经济基本面变化超预期，不理性的预期引发市场快速波动，对当前的货币政策框 架理解不到位。 作者 分析师：张旭 执业证书编号：S0930516010001 010-58452066 zhang_xu@ebscn.com 近段时间，部分投资者预期 2026 年 GDP 增长目标将设定为"4.5%至 5%"， 我们亦认为这个预期兑现的概率是不低的。鉴于"4.5%至 5%"这个表述低于之 前"5%左右"的市场普遍预期，其成为了推动债券收益率下行的催化剂之一。 事实上，今年 1 月 7 日 10 年期国债收益率是 1.90%，至昨日（注：1 月 26 日） 已降至了 1.82%。 为何 GDP 增长目标预期值降低会催化收益率下行？这是因为部分投资者认为， 较低的经济增长目标对应于较低的利率水平。但我们认为，这个观点是值得商榷 的，因为其混淆了（调控者希望达到的）增长目标和（经济自身的）潜在增速两 个概念。无论是上文中提及的"4.5%至 5%" ...

当前价：76.35 港元 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 2026 年 1 月 27 日 公司研究 大手笔收购 PUMA29%股权，多品牌全球化布局再一里程碑 ——安踏体育（2020.HK）拟收购公告点评 买入（维持） 分析师：孙未未 执业证书编号：S0930517080001 021-52523672 sunww@ebscn.com 分析师：朱洁宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070004 021-52523842 zhujieyu@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 27.97 | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 2135.24 | | 一年最低/最高(港 | 73.55-106.30 | | 元)： | | | 近 3 月换手率： | 32.2% | 股价相对走势 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -10.2 | -10.8 | -37.1 | | 绝 ...

Profit Growth - In December 2025, industrial enterprises' profit growth rebounded significantly to +5.3% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 13.1% in the previous month[4] - The cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to December 2025 was +0.6%, up from +0.1% for the first eleven months[2] - The cumulative revenue growth for industrial enterprises from January to December 2025 was +1.1%, down from +1.6% for the first eleven months[2] Price and Profit Margin - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in December 2025 was 5.57%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points year-on-year[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth improved from -2.2% in November to -1.9% in December 2025[4] - The cumulative revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises from January to December 2025 was 5.31%, higher than 5.29% in the first eleven months[4] Structural Changes - Profit distribution is increasingly concentrated in upstream and midstream industries, while downstream sectors face pressure from rising costs[3] - The cumulative profit growth for the mining industry from January to December 2025 was -26.2%, an improvement from -27.2% in the first eleven months[13] - The cumulative profit margin for the manufacturing sector was 4.70%, up from 4.62% in the previous month[13] Market Dynamics - Private enterprises' cumulative profit growth stabilized at 0% in 2025, while state-owned enterprises saw a decline of -3.9%[26] - The inventory growth for industrial enterprises was 3.9% year-on-year in December 2025, down from 4.6% in November[30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric equipment and new energy sector [6] Core Insights - The mechanism electricity bidding results show significant differentiation, with a general trend of "higher in the east, lower in the west" for the 2025-2026 incremental projects. Eastern regions have higher bidding limits and results, while western and northern regions face pressure on actual bidding results [1][11] - The internal rate of return (IRR) for wind and solar projects is estimated at around 8% and 6% respectively. There is potential for further decline in mechanism electricity prices in provinces with prices above 0.31 yuan/kWh, while regions like the Three Norths and Shandong are under significant pressure [2][11] - The profitability of existing projects is stabilizing, and cash flow is improving, which may lead to valuation recovery for leading companies in the sector [3][12] - Integrated projects involving wind, solar, hydrogen, and methanol are seen as a key path for new energy operators to explore new growth avenues, leveraging existing resources and optimizing consumption capabilities [4] Summary by Sections Mechanism Electricity Bidding Results - The bidding results for the 2025-2026 incremental projects reflect a clear differentiation based on regional factors, with eastern provinces achieving higher results compared to western provinces [1][11] - The average mechanism electricity price for solar projects is approximately 0.31 yuan/kWh, which is about 15% lower than the average coal benchmark price [23] Project Profitability and Internal Rate of Return - The IRR for wind and solar projects is estimated at 8% and 6% respectively, with potential for further price declines in certain provinces [2][11] - Specific regions like Zhejiang and Ningxia are projected to maintain IRRs above 6%, even with lower mechanism electricity prices [39][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading new energy operators such as Longyuan Power, Xintian Green Energy, and others actively exploring new growth paths [5][12]

2026 年 1 月 27 日 行业研究 开启二次创业新征程， 构建"一基两翼三链四新"产业新格局 ——中国石化集团跟踪报告之六 石油化工 增持（维持） 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 分析师：王礼沫 执业证书编号：S0930524040002 010-56513142 wanglimo@ebscn.com 二、引领石化事业新发展，2026 年做好六项工作 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 两大石化集团实施战略重组，提升成品 油、贸易全产业链竞争力——中国石化集 团跟踪报告之五（2026-01-09） 要点 事件： 2026 年 1 月 26 日，中国石化集团公司 2026 年工作会议在京召开，总结 2025 年工作和"十四五"发展成就，研究提出"十五五"发展思路和目标任务，部署 2026 年重点工作。 点评： 一、全面开启二次创业新征程，奋力谱写新时代振兴石化新篇 ...