2025 年 4 月 28 日 公司研究 产品销量减少及资产减值影响业绩，蓬莱项目预计 25H1 投产 ——万润股份（002643.SZ）2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：10.62 元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 股价相对走势 -27% -13% 1% 14% 28% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 万润股份 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -2.66 | 4.74 | -11.26 | | 绝对 | -5.93 | 4.53 | -6.76 | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | 要点 事件 1：公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年，公司实现营收 36.93 亿元，同比减少 14.22%；实现归母净利润 2.46 亿元，同比减少 67.72%；实现扣非后归母净利润 2.02 亿元，同比减少 71.87%。2024Q4，公司单季度实现营收 9. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 89.175 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 31.69 yuan per 10 shares, with a total cash dividend payout of 22.3 billion yuan, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 70% [1]. - The company is focusing on controlling inventory and maintaining prices for its flagship product, with a stable market price for its main brand [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 21.26 billion yuan, a 2.53% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 6.17% to 6.922 billion yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue reached 36.94 billion yuan, up 6.05% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 5.8% to 14.86 billion yuan [1]. Product and Market Strategy - The main brand and other liquor revenues for 2024 were 67.875 billion yuan and 15.251 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.07% and 11.79% [2]. - The company has introduced new products and focused on high-end market segments, with a 30% increase in banquet market activities for the main brand [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 77.05%, with a slight increase from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 35.72% [3]. - Sales expenses increased significantly in 2024 due to higher investments in brand promotion and channel development [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 33.691 billion yuan and 35.896 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 6.7% and 8.6% from previous estimates [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 15 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 9.942 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.584 billion yuan, up 53.59% year-on-year [1]. - The mining resource segment significantly contributed to the performance increase, with revenue reaching 3.21 billion yuan in 2024, a staggering 412.9% increase year-on-year [2]. - The Lonshi copper mine reached full production ahead of schedule, producing 48,700 tons of copper metal in 2024, with plans to increase production to 79,400 tons in 2025, a 63% increase compared to 2024 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 2.972 billion yuan, a 42.35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 491 million yuan, up 52.77% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.811 billion yuan, a 42.49% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 422 million yuan, up 54.10% year-on-year [1]. Mining Resource Segment - The mining resource business generated 3.21 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 42.25%, down 6.12 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - In Q1 2025, the mining resource segment generated 1.3 billion yuan in revenue, a 232.7% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 588 million yuan, up 247.3% year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects net profits of 2.251 billion yuan and 2.812 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a 3% and 12% upward revision [4]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are 10.4X, 8.3X, and 7.0X, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longbai Group (002601.SZ) with a current price of 16.42 CNY [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 was under pressure due to increased asset impairment and financial expenses, but profitability is expected to improve in Q1 2025 as prices recover [1][5][6] - Longbai Group is the largest titanium dioxide producer globally, with a complete industrial chain from mining to processing [7] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards due to the decline in titanium dioxide prices and increased financial costs, but maintains a positive outlook for 2027 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Longbai Group achieved revenue of 27.51 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.80%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.79% to 2.17 billion CNY [4][5] - Q4 2024 saw a revenue of 6.65 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.20%, but a net loss of 395 million CNY, a significant decline compared to the previous year [4][5] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 7.06 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.21%, but net profit recovered to 686 million CNY, indicating a positive trend [4][6] Market Dynamics - The titanium dioxide business generated revenue of 18.98 billion CNY in 2024, with a sales volume of 1.254 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% and 8.3% respectively [5] - The average selling price of titanium dioxide in Q4 2024 decreased by 4.7% quarter-on-quarter and 10.3% year-on-year, impacting the company's gross margin [5][6] Cost Structure and Profitability - The gross margin for the titanium dioxide business was 31.4% in 2024, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, but the overall gross margin in Q4 2024 fell to 19.0% due to price declines [5][6] - Financial expenses surged by 195% year-on-year to 701 million CNY in 2024, with Q4 expenses reaching 399 million CNY [5][6] Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.96 billion CNY, 3.37 billion CNY, and 3.75 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a recovery as market conditions improve [7][9] - The company is actively enhancing its upstream raw material supply to support its production capabilities [7]

2025 年 4 月 28 日 公司研究 业绩稳步增长，吸附材料多板块齐发力 ——蓝晓科技（300487.SZ）2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：44.11 元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 5.08 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 223.93 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 36.39/67.85 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 45.94% | 股价相对走势 -18% -4% 10% 25% 39% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 蓝晓科技 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -3.86 | -8.33 | -10.93 | | 绝对 | -7.14 | -8.54 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong performance growth with improved operational efficiency and increased cash reserves, leading to a higher dividend payout ratio [2][3] - The main business segments, property management and community value-added services, show steady growth, contributing to 86% of total revenue [2] - The company has optimized its managed projects, enhancing operational efficiency and improving gross profit margins [3] - The company is backed by China Overseas Development and China State Construction Group, providing a rich resource for property management projects [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 14 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with a gross profit of 2.33 billion HKD, up 12.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.51 billion HKD, reflecting a 12.5% increase [1] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.18 HKD per share for the year, a 29% increase compared to the previous year [1] Operational Efficiency - By the end of 2024, the company will manage an area of 430 million square meters, with new contracts signed for 74.1 million square meters, 63.3% of which comes from third parties [3] - The company has exited 44.5 million square meters of loss-making projects, optimizing its business structure and enhancing operational efficiency [3] Cash Flow and Dividends - As of the end of 2024, the company has cash and bank balances of 5.8 billion HKD, an increase of 13.1% from the previous year [3] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is set at 36.3%, an increase of 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1.68 billion HKD and 1.87 billion HKD, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 2.04 billion HKD [4] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10, 9, and 8 times, respectively, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [4]

行业研究 热轧与螺纹钢价差处于近 5 个月新低 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.4.21-4.27） 2025 年 4 月 28 日 估值分位：本周沪深 300 指数+0.38%，周期板块表现最佳的商用载货车 （+4.84%），普钢、工业金属的 PB 相对于沪深两市 PB 比值分位（2013 年 以来）分别是 37.68%、60.08%；普钢板块 PB 相对于沪深两市 PB 的比值 目前为 0.53，2013 年以来的最高值为 0.82（2017 年 8 月达到）。 工业品链条：半钢胎开工率处于同期高位。（1）本周主要大宗商品价格表 现：冷轧、铜、铝价格环比-1.99%、+2.46%、+1.06%，对应的毛利环比变 化-39.40%、亏损环比-11.54%、+5.83%；（2）本周全国半钢胎开工率为 78.11%，环比-0.33 个百分点。 细分品种：钨精矿价格创近 10 个月以来新高水平。（1）石墨电极：超高功 率 18000 元/吨，环比+0.00%，综合毛利润为 1147.1 元/吨，环比+0.00%； （2）电解铝价格为 20100 元/吨，环比+1.06%，测算利润为 2890 元/吨 （不含 ...

2025 年 4 月 28 日 行业研究 25 年新增核准 10 台核电机组，可控核聚变领域近期频现突破 ——碳中和领域动态跟踪（一百五十七） 要点 事件： 4 月 27 日，经国务院常务会议审议，决定核准三门核电三期工程等 5 个 核电项目，合计 10 台机组。 我国核电项目审批已经进入规模化核准阶段。 根据《中国能源报》内容，此次核准的 5 个核电机组具体为中核三门核电 5、6 号机组、中广核广西防城港核电 5、6 号机组、广东台山核电 3、4 号机组，国 家电投海阳核电 5/6 号，以及华能霞浦核电 1、2 号机组，合计 10 台机组，其 中华龙一号机组 8 台，CAP1000 机组 2 台。 截至目前，2019-2025 年我国核准核电机组数量分别为 6/4/5/10/10/11/10 台， 已连续 4 年每年新增核准 10 台及以上，7 年累计核准新增核电项目 28 个共 56 台机组。根据中国核能协会发布的《中国核能发展报告（2025）》预测，按当前 的建设速度和节奏，2030 年前我国在运核电装机规模将跃居世界第一；2040 年 我国核电装机需达到 2 亿千瓦，发电量占比约 10%。 （3）随着 ...

2025 年 4 月 28 日 有色 电车材料价格普遍下滑，多晶硅价格创近 3 个月新低值 ——金属新材料高频数据周报（20250421-20250427） 建议关注标的：继续全面看好金属新材料板块。氧化镨钕价格近 14 个月趋势 性上涨，关注 2025 年需求情况，建议关注北方稀土、中国稀土。锂价已跌至 8 万元/吨以内，产能后续存在加速出清的可能性，锂矿板块建议关注成本具 有优势且资源端存在扩张的标的：盐湖股份、藏格矿业、永兴材料、中矿资 源、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、西藏矿业等。刚果（金）决定暂停钴出口 4 个 月，有望缓解全球钴市场供应过剩程度，建议关注华友钴业等。Bisie 锡矿停 产，看好锡价上行，建议关注锡业股份、兴业银锡、华锡有色。 风险提示：估值过高风险；技术路径变化的风险；企业经营激进、战略出现 偏差、治理失败等风险、宏观政策以及流动性调整的风险。 有色 增持（维持） 要点 作者 分析师：王招华 执业证书编号：S0930515050001 021-52523811 wangzhh@ebscn.com 军工新材料：价格持平。（1）本周电解钴价格 24.00 万元/吨，环比 +0%。 本周电解钴和钴 ...

2025 年 4 月 28 日 公司研究 业绩稳健增长，新品推出与海外拓展支撑未来成长 ——伊之密（300415.SZ）2024 年年报报、2025 年一季报点评 要点 24 年及 25Q1 业绩均实现同比稳健增长 伊之密 24 年实现营业收入 50.6 亿元，同比增长 23.6%；归母净利润 6.1 亿元，同比增长 27.4%。公司 24 年毛利率为 31.9%，同比下降 1.3 个百分点； 净利率为 12.4%，同比上升 0.4 个百分点。24 年经营性现金净流入 3.6 亿元， 同比增长 104.9%。公司拟分红每股 0.50 元（含税），分红率为 38.9%。 公司 25Q1 业绩保持快速增长，实现营业收入 11.9 亿元，同比增长 24.3%； 归母净利润 1.3 亿元，同比增长 14.3%；毛利率为 30.6%，同比下降 4.2 个百分 点；净利率为 11.5%，同比下降 0.9 个百分点。 2025 年 4 月 23 日，公司发布公告，拟以 1500-2500 万元资金回购股份， 回购价格不超过 28 元/股，占当前总股本比例为 0.11%-0.19%。此次回购彰显 了公司对未来长期发展的信心。 ...