Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Credit bond issuance volume increased overall on a week - on - week basis, and credit spreads of various industries showed mixed trends [1] - The trading volume of credit bonds decreased on a week - on - week basis [4] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance Statistics - From January 26 to January 30, 2026, a total of 445 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 470.374 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 21.90% [11] - In terms of issuance scale, 197 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 240.177 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 17.79%, accounting for 51.06% of the total credit bond issuance scale; 202 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 118.297 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 28.38%, accounting for 25.15%; 46 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 111.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 24.58%, accounting for 23.79% [11] - In terms of issuance term, the average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.63 years. The average issuance term of industrial bonds was 2.28 years, urban investment bonds was 3.25 years, and financial bonds was 1.80 years [14] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.09%. The average issuance coupon rate of industrial bonds was 2.01%, urban investment bonds was 2.23%, and financial bonds was 1.83% [2] 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - One credit bond's issuance was cancelled this week [23] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - This week, industry credit spreads showed mixed trends. Among Shenwan primary industries, for AAA - rated industries, the largest increase in credit spreads was in the automobile industry (3.6BP), and the largest decrease was in the light industry manufacturing (9.7BP); for AA + - rated industries, the largest increase was in the building materials industry (2.9BP), and the largest decrease was in the food and beverage industry (5.7BP); for AA - rated industries, the largest increase was in the media industry (20.8BP), and the largest decrease was in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry (5.6BP) [3] - Coal and steel credit spreads showed mixed trends. For coal, the credit spreads of AAA, AA + and AA levels decreased by 0.4BP, 2.5BP and increased by 1.6BP respectively. For steel, the credit spreads of AAA and AA + levels increased by 2.4BP and decreased by 4.3BP respectively [25] - Credit spreads of urban investment bonds at all levels showed mixed trends, while non - urban investment credit spreads decreased overall. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds at three levels increased by 0.3BP, decreased by 0.8BP and 1.3BP respectively; the credit spreads of non - urban investment bonds at three levels decreased by 0.1BP, 0.3BP and 1BP respectively [25] - State - owned enterprise credit spreads showed mixed trends, while private enterprise credit spreads decreased overall. The credit spreads of central state - owned enterprises at three levels increased by 1.2BP, decreased by 0.7BP and 2.1BP respectively; the credit spreads of local state - owned enterprises at three levels increased by 0.4BP, decreased by 0.2BP and 1BP respectively; the credit spreads of private enterprises at AAA and AA + levels decreased by 4.2BP and 2.1BP respectively [25] - Regional urban investment credit spreads showed mixed trends. The regions with the highest AAA - rated credit spreads were Yunnan, Liaoning and Shaanxi, with credit spreads of 90, 85 and 79BPs respectively; the regions with the highest AA + - rated credit spreads were Qinghai, Gansu and Yunnan, with credit spreads of 122, 118 and 115BPs respectively; the regions with the highest AA - rated credit spreads were Sichuan, Guangxi and Yunnan, with credit spreads of 133, 124 and 121BPs respectively. In terms of week - on - week changes, the region with the largest increase in AAA - rated credit spreads was Guangdong (2.8BP), and the largest decrease was Yunnan (7.9BP); the region with the largest increase in AA + - rated credit spreads was Gansu (1.6BP), and the largest decrease was Shaanxi (6.7BP); the region with the largest increase in AA - rated credit spreads was Shanghai (1.3BP), and the largest decrease was Shandong (3.9BP) [27] 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 1601.302 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.09%. Among various credit bonds, the top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds and medium - term notes. Specifically, the trading volume of commercial bank bonds was 545.925 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.96%, accounting for 34.09% of the total credit bond trading volume; the trading volume of corporate bonds was 455.439 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 2.46%, accounting for 28.44%; the trading volume of medium - term notes was 338.276 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 6.63%, accounting for 21.13% [28] 2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - According to DM client data, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week are provided for investors' reference [30]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, both the convertible bond market and the equity market declined. Currently, it is recommended to select bonds in a refined manner, comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks, and pay attention to the forced redemption risk of individual bonds [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 - From January 26 to January 30, 2026 (a total of 5 trading days), the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was -2.61% (last week's change rate was +2.92%), and the change of the CSI All - Share Index was -1.54% (last week's change rate was +1.76%). Since 2026, the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index has been +5.82%, and the change rate of the CSI All - Share Index has been +5.75% [1]. - In terms of ratings, the high - rated bonds (rated AAA), medium - high - rated bonds (rated AA+), medium - rated bonds (rated AA), medium - low - rated bonds (rated AA -), and low - rated bonds (rated AA - and below) had change rates of -0.81%, -1.48%, -1.51%, -1.87%, and -2.81% respectively this week, with high - rated bonds having the lowest decline [1]. - In terms of convertible bond scale, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance greater than 2 billion yuan), medium - large - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1.5 and 2 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1 and 1.5 billion yuan), small - medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 0.5 and 1 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance less than 0.5 billion yuan) had change rates of -1.42%, -1.59%, -1.93%, -1.49%, and -2.49% respectively this week, with large - scale convertible bonds having the lowest decline [2]. - In terms of parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value greater than 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 120 and 130 yuan), medium - high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 120 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 100 and 110 yuan), medium - low - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 100 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 80 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value less than 80 yuan) had change rates of +2.18%, +1.72%, -2.91%, +2.45, +1.51%, -4.29%, +5.97%, and -0.43% respectively this week, with low - parity bonds having the highest increase [2]. Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of January 30, 2026, there were 392 outstanding convertible bonds (394 at the close of last week), with a balance of 548.015 billion yuan (550.573 billion yuan at the close of last week). - The average convertible bond price was 140.56 yuan (141.26 yuan at the close of last week), and the quantile was 99.33% (quantile from the beginning of 2023 to January 30, 2026). - The average convertible bond parity was 109.04 yuan (109.62 yuan at the close of last week), and the quantile was 99.33%. - The average conversion premium rate of convertible bonds was 34.49% (32.88% at the close of last week), and the quantile was 52.08% [3]. Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - This week, both the convertible bond market and the equity market declined. Currently, it is recommended to select bonds in a refined manner, comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks, and pay attention to the forced redemption risk of individual bonds [4]. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of increase this week are as follows: | Rank | Convertible Bond Name | Underlying Stock Name | Industry | Latest Closing Price (Yuan) | Convertible Bond Increase (%) | Underlying Stock Increase (%) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 1 | Lianrui Convertible Bond | Lianrui New Materials | Basic Chemicals | 226.51 | 44.00 | -5.66 | | 2 | Tianzhun Convertible Bond | Tianzhun Technology | Machinery and Equipment | 266.57 | 16.12 | 14.23 | | 3 | Baichuan Convertible Bond 2 | Baichuan Co., Ltd. | Basic Chemicals | 149.00 | 12.75 | 29.25 | | 4 | Outong Convertible Bond | Outong Co., Ltd. | Power Equipment | 742.86 | 8.01 | 14.48 | | 5 | Haomei Convertible Bond | Haomei New Materials | Non - ferrous Metals | 262.00 | 7.22 | -0.05 | | 6 | Yunji Convertible Bond | Yunji Group | Machinery and Equipment | 404.50 | 7.01 | 4.53 | | 7 | Aofei Convertible Bond | Aofei Data | Communications | 317.00 | 6.02 | 10.22 | | 8 | Jize Convertible Bond | Jize New Energy | Public Utilities | 244.99 | 5.65 | 6.85 | | 9 | Jinji Convertible Bond | Jinji Co., Ltd. | Basic Chemicals | 151.00 | 4.72 | 19.60 | | 10 | Saite Convertible Bond | Saite New Materials | Basic Chemicals | 152.62 | 4.16 | 14.99 | | 11 | Xiaoming Convertible Bond | Xiaoming Co., Ltd. | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 145.68 | 4.15 | 13.89 | | 12 | Jin05 Convertible Bond | Jinpan Technology | Power Equipment | 208.25 | 3.69 | -7.47 | | 13 | Yubang Convertible Bond | Yubang New Materials | Power Equipment | 160.16 | 3.68 | 9.82 | | 14 | Tianyuan Convertible Bond | Wuhan Tianyuan | Environmental Protection | 272.20 | 3.68 | -2.86 | | 15 | Huairui Convertible Bond | Huairui Precision | Machinery and Equipment | 159.44 | 3.37 | 3.14 | [20]

2026 年 1 月 31 日 总量研究 二级市场价格波动上涨，首批商业不动产 REITs 已申报 ——REITs 周度观察（20260126-20260130） 要点 1、 二级市场 2026 年 1 月 26 日-2026 年 1 月 30 日（以下简称"本周"），我国已上市公募 REITs 二级市场价格整体呈现波动上行趋势：中证 REITs（收盘）和中证 REITs 全收益指数分别收于 809.56 和 1052.42，本周回报率分别为 0.35%和 0.47%。 与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：原油> REITs > 纯债 > 美股>A 股>黄金>可转债。 从项目属性来看，本周产权类和特许经营权类 REITs 的二级市场价格均有所上 涨，其中，产权类 REITs 回报率为 0.27%，特许经营权类 REITs 回报率为 0.68%。 从底层资产类型来看，本周水利设施类 REITs 涨幅最大。本周回报率排名前三的 底层资产类型分别为水利设施类、能源类和交通基础设施类。 从单只 REIT 层面来看，有 41 只 REITs 上涨，1 只 REIT 与上周持平，有 36 只 REITs 下 ...

2026 年 1 月 31 日 总量研究 沃什将如何重塑政策路径与市场预期？ ——解构美国系列第十八篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 美国政府停摆：阴影逐步消散——解构美国 系列第十七篇（2026-01-21） 特朗普如何激活美国地产：现实与挑战—— 解构美国系列第十六篇（2025-12-27） 胶着的医保谈判，不确定的政府停摆—— 《大国博弈》系列第九十二篇（2025-12- 15） 美国政府重新开门，市场为何"不买账"？ ——解构美国系列第十五篇（2025-11-18） 美元指数突破 100 后，强势美元将维持多 久？——解构美国系列第十四篇（2025-11- 06） 特朗普升级全球关税战，对华后续军棋推演 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十一篇（2025- 04-03） 减税法案或是美国经济预期转折点——解构 美国系列第十一篇（2025-03-26） 美国政府停摆迫近，影响 ...

2026 年 1 月 31 日 公司研究 生产力与企业流程稳健增长，Azure 增长受可分配算力限制 ——微软（MSFT.O）2026 财年二季报业绩点评 要点 事件：美国东部时间 2026 年 1 月 28 日盘后，微软发布 FY26Q2 业绩公告。 美国东部时间 2026 年 1 月 29 日盘后，微软股价收跌 9.99%。 FY26Q2 业绩超预期系投资收益拉动。FY26Q2 微软实现营业收入 813 亿美元， 同比增长 17%，略高于市场一致预期；实现营业利润 383 亿美元，同比增长 21%，对应营业利润率 47.1%；GAAP 口径下净利润 385 亿美元，同比增长 60%，主要受 OpenAI 投资重估收益拉动；剔除 OpenAI 投资影响后的 non-GAAP 净利润 309 亿美元，同比增长 23%。 Azure 增速维持高位，但收入增长受可分配算力限制。FY26Q2 智能云实现收 入约 329 亿美元，同比增长 29%，整体增速与前期水平接近，主要反映既有 云业务与存量客户扩容的延续；其中 Azure 及其他云服务收入同比增长 39%， 与 FY26Q1 基本持平，增速未进一步上行，公司指 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $770.2 million for FY26Q3, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached $130.6 million, a significant increase of 466.1% year-on-year. The Non-GAAP net profit was $141.4 million, up 266.6% year-on-year [1]. - The learning services and other segments showed robust growth, with offline small class revenues increasing due to higher enrollment numbers and stable pricing. The online quality courses also saw growth driven by technological innovations and enhanced user experience [1][2]. - Cost control measures led to a notable improvement in profit margins, with the Non-GAAP net profit margin reaching 18.4%, an increase of 12.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Projections - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 upwards to $369 million, $482 million, and $606 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21x, 16x, and 13x [4]. - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2028 are set at $1.49 billion, $2.25 billion, $2.975 billion, $3.764 billion, and $4.606 billion, with growth rates of 46.2%, 51.0%, 32.2%, 26.5%, and 22.4% respectively [5][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to restart interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, as the job market stabilizes and inflation has not yet shown a downward turning point [2] - The report highlights that New Oriental's FY26Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with net revenue of $1.191 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, and a net profit of $45.45 million, up 42.3% year-on-year [5] - The report projects an upward revision of New Oriental's net profit forecasts for FY26 to FY28, with estimates raised to $497 million, $585 million, and $680 million respectively, reflecting a 13%, 14%, and 17% increase [5] Group 2 - The A-share stock selection for February 2026 includes companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Hikvision, and China Life, indicating a focus on stable holdings during the holiday period [3] - The report notes that the bond market is increasingly influenced by non-bank financial sectors, emphasizing the need for macro-prudential mechanisms to address risks in the bond market [4]

公司研究 FY26Q2 业绩超预期增长，全年收入指引上调彰显信心 ——新东方-S（9901.HK）FY26Q2 业绩点评 买入（上调） 当前价：44.70 港元 2026 年 1 月 29 日 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 15.80 | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 706.39 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 30.85/47.31 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 14.06% | 股价相对走势 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 25/1 25/2 25/3 25/4 25/5 25/6 25/7 25/8 25/9 25/10 25/11 25/12 26 ...

2026 年 1 月 29 日 总量研究 一季度美联储重启降息概率不高 ——2026 年 1 月 FOMC 会议点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 如期降息，扩表在途——2025年12月FOMC 会议点评（2025-12-11） 美联储有望开启新一轮宽松周期——2025 年 9 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-09-18） 美联储在等待关税"冲击"——2025 年 6 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-06-20） 美联储短期强硬，下半年或更为主动—— 2025 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-05-08） 美联储"降息的心"始终不变——2025 年 3 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-03-20） 美联储降息窗口正徐徐打开——2024年3月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-03-21） 美联储为何主动向市场预期靠拢？——2023 年 12 月 FOMC 会议 ...

2026 年 1 月 29 日 总量研究 近期"新设货币政策工具"的猜想 ——2026 年 1 月 29 日利率债观察 要点 1、近期"新设货币政策工具"的猜想 近期，部分市场投资者猜测央行有可能会创设新的货币政策工具，用于更加精准 地调控货币市场利率。但我们认为，当前货币市场利率运行稳健，创设该工具的 必要性并不大。从利率水平上看，自 2025 年下半年至昨日（注：2026 年 1 月 28 日），DR001 的均值为 1.35%，处于 1.4%的 7D OMO 利率（注：即政策利 率）附近。从利率的波动率上看，2025 年 DR001 的标准差为 0.20，亦处于自 2019 年以来的较低水平。而且，当前我国已经类似的工具。人民银行于 2024 年 7 月 8 日设立了隔夜期限的临时正、逆回购操作，操作利率为 7D OMO 利率 减点 20bp 和加点 50bp。即便需要强化临时正、逆回购工具对 DR001 的"框定" 作用，那么直接压缩上述减、加点幅度即可，而没有必要再创设出个类似的工具。 退一步讲，倘若此时创设出这样一个工具，那么对债券市场利率亦不会有明显影 响。DR 利率是债券市场估值的锚，近些年 ...