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商贸零售行业跟踪周报:2026年消费:商贸零售、社会服务业的八大预测-20260201
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-01 15:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail and consumer services industry for 2026 [1] Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant number of consumption-promoting policies in 2026, focusing on "supply-side" initiatives rather than traditional methods like vouchers, leading to structural investment opportunities [4][9] - Service consumption is expected to be a key area in 2026, with a focus on "quality supply" and "reform," particularly in tourism, department stores, tea drinks, and chain stores [4][9] - The gold and jewelry sector is projected to see profits reflect gold price fluctuations, with direct retail brands likely to benefit first as gold prices stabilize [10] - The bulk trade sector is expected to recover from its lowest point, with both valuation and profitability anticipated to rise in 2026 [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of "consumption going abroad" as a long-term investment direction, with opportunities arising from sustained performance growth rather than policy stimulus [10] - New consumption brands are expected to show a clear resurgence after the Lunar New Year, with low valuations and anticipated positive performance data [11] - State-owned enterprise reform is highlighted as a core driver for promoting consumption, particularly in scenario-based consumption areas like tourism and retail [12] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Outlook - The report predicts numerous consumption policies aimed at encouraging new business models, leading to rich structural investment opportunities in the consumer sector [4][9] - Service consumption will focus on quality supply and reforms, with recommendations for specific companies in tourism and retail sectors [4][9] 2. Market Review - The report notes that from January 26 to February 1, the retail index rose by 2.16%, while the overall market indices showed varied performance [13][14] - Year-to-date performance indicates a 4.92% increase in the retail index, reflecting positive market sentiment [16] 3. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a detailed valuation table for various companies, highlighting their market capitalization, closing prices, and projected earnings for 2024 to 2026, with specific buy and hold recommendations [18][19]
非银金融行业跟踪周报:券商股或迎业绩催化,保险估值仍待提升-20260201
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-01 14:38
证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025/2/5 2025/6/4 2025/10/1 2026/1/28 非银金融 沪深300 券商股或迎业绩催化;保险估值仍待提升 2026 年 02 月 01 日 增持(维持) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书:S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 罗宇康 执业证书:S0600525090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 相关研究 《保险行业 12 月保费:产寿 25Q4 保 费增速均有所放缓,看好寿险 2026 年 新单增长》 2026-01-31 《公募基金业绩基准指引正式发布; "保险+康养"模式持续推进》 2026-01-25 东吴证券研究所 1 / 18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现:最近 5 个交易日(2026 年 01 月 26 日-2026 年 01 月 30 日)非银金融各子板块中仅保险行 ...
医药生物行业跟踪周报:降息等多因素支持科研上游持续复苏,重点推荐皓元医药、奥浦迈等
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-01 12:24
2026 年 02 月 01 日 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·医药生物 医药生物行业跟踪周报 降息等多因素支持科研上游持续复苏,重点 推荐皓元医药、奥浦迈等 增持(维持) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 朱国广 执业证书:S0600520070004 zhugg@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 27% 31% 2025/2/5 2025/6/4 2025/10/1 2026/1/28 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究 《mRNA 疫苗龙头释放积极临床数据 信号,建议关注悦康药业、康希诺等》 2026-01-26 《JPM 2026 最前线观察:中国创新药 再次成为全球焦点!》 2026-01-18 东吴证券研究所 1 / 37 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周、年初至今 A 股医药指数涨幅分别为-3.31%、3.14%,相对沪深 300 的超额收益分别为-0.56%、2.51%;本周、年初至今恒生生物科技指数 涨跌幅分别为-3.24%、8.76%,相对于恒生科技指数跑赢-1.87%、5.09%; ...
凯格精机:2025年业绩预告点评:25年利润同比高增,看好产品结构改善带来盈利能力提升-20260201
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-01 12:24
[Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 事件:公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告 2026 年 1 月 30 日公司发布 2025 年业绩预告。公司预计 2025 年实现归母净 利润 1.65-2.07 亿元,同比+134%~+194%,中值 1.86 亿元,同比+164%;预计 实现扣非归母净利润 1.60-2.02 亿元,同比+152%~+218%,中值 1.81 亿元,同 比+185%。公司全年业绩实现较快增长,主要受益于 AI 算力建设需求爆发, 服务器代工厂 CAPEX 有较大幅度增长,对公司锡膏印刷设备需求快速提升。 2025 年度公司毛利率相对较高的部分产品销售额增加,产品结构有所优化。 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·专用设备 凯格精机(301338) 2025 年业绩预告点评:25 年利润同比高 增,看好产品结构改善带来盈利能力提升 买入(维持) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万 ...
凯格精机(301338):25年利润同比高增,看好产品结构改善带来盈利能力提升
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-01 12:21
证券研究报告·公司点评报告·专用设备 凯格精机(301338) 2025 年业绩预告点评:25 年利润同比高 增,看好产品结构改善带来盈利能力提升 买入(维持) ◼ 事件:公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告 2026 年 1 月 30 日公司发布 2025 年业绩预告。公司预计 2025 年实现归母净 利润 1.65-2.07 亿元,同比+134%~+194%,中值 1.86 亿元,同比+164%;预计 实现扣非归母净利润 1.60-2.02 亿元,同比+152%~+218%,中值 1.81 亿元,同 比+185%。公司全年业绩实现较快增长,主要受益于 AI 算力建设需求爆发, 服务器代工厂 CAPEX 有较大幅度增长,对公司锡膏印刷设备需求快速提升。 2025 年度公司毛利率相对较高的部分产品销售额增加,产品结构有所优化。 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 740.02 | 856.60 | 1,190.15 | ...
医药生物行业跟踪周报:降息等多因素支持科研上游持续复苏,重点推荐皓元医药、奥浦迈等-20260201
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-01 11:38
证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·医药生物 医药生物行业跟踪周报 降息等多因素支持科研上游持续复苏,重点 推荐皓元医药、奥浦迈等 增持(维持) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026 年 02 月 01 日 证券分析师 朱国广 执业证书:S0600520070004 zhugg@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 27% 31% 2025/2/5 2025/6/4 2025/10/1 2026/1/28 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究 《mRNA 疫苗龙头释放积极临床数据 信号,建议关注悦康药业、康希诺等》 2026-01-26 《JPM 2026 最前线观察:中国创新药 再次成为全球焦点!》 2026-01-18 东吴证券研究所 1 / 37 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周、年初至今 A 股医药指数涨幅分别为-3.31%、3.14%,相对沪深 300 的超额收益分别为-0.56%、2.51%;本周、年初至今恒生生物科技指数 涨跌幅分别为-3.24%、8.76%,相对于恒生科技指数跑赢-1.87%、5.09%; ...
宏观量化经济指数周报20260201:春节错位对经济数据读数造成扰动-20260201
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-01 11:32
证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观量化经济指数周报 20260201 春节错位对经济数据读数造成扰动 2026 年 02 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 经济高频数据: 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书:S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书:S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书:S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《市场短期进入结构混沌期,但大盘 指数仍然稳健》 2026-02-01 《1 月 FOMC:平安夜——2026 年 1 月 FOMC 会议点评》 2026-01-29 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数:从周度数据来看,截至 2026 年 2 月 1 日,本周 ECI 供 给指数为 50.09%,较上周回升 0.03 个百分点;ECI 需求指数为 49.86%, 较上周回升 0.02 个百分点。从分项来看,ECI 投资指数为 49.91%,较 上 ...
原油周报:美国威胁将对伊朗进行打击,国际油价震荡上升-20260201
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-01 11:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The threat of the US to strike Iran has led to an upward oscillation in international oil prices [1]. - This week, the average weekly prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures were $68.6 and $63.4 per barrel respectively, up $3.8 and $3.2 from last week [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - The data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9]. 2. This Week's Performance Review of the Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector - **2.1 Performance of the Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector**: Information on the sector's performance and the performance of sub - industries, as well as the performance of the sector and the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index, is presented, but specific data is not provided in the text [11][18]. - **2.2 Performance of Listed Companies in the Sector**: - The report provides the latest prices, total market values, and price changes in the past week, month, three months, one year, and since the beginning of 2026 for multiple listed companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec [23]. - A valuation table shows the stock prices, total market values, net profits attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of these companies from 2024 to 2027 [25]. 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **3.1 Crude Oil Prices**: It includes the prices and price differences of Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and ESPO crude oils, as well as the relationships between the US dollar index, LME copper price, and WTI crude oil price [29][31][40]. - **3.2 Crude Oil Inventory**: Analyzes the correlations between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, the weekly destocking speed of US commercial crude oil and the increase or decrease of Brent oil prices, and presents the total, commercial, strategic, and Cushing crude oil inventories in the US [43][44][49]. - **3.3 Crude Oil Supply**: Covers US crude oil production, the number of active oil rigs, and the number of active fracturing fleets, as well as their relationships with oil prices [63][64][66]. - **3.4 Crude Oil Demand**: Focuses on US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery operating rates, Shandong refinery seasonal operating rates, and the operating rates of major refineries in China [71][73][75]. - **3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export**: Details the import, export, and net import volumes of US crude oil and crude oil and petroleum products [79][81]. 4. Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking - **4.1 Refined Oil Prices**: Analyzes the relationship between international oil prices and domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene prices and price differences, as well as the price differences between crude oil and refined oil in the US, Europe, and Singapore [86][109][114]. - **4.2 Refined Oil Inventory**: Presents the inventories of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US and Singapore [124][128][136]. - **4.3 Refined Oil Supply**: Covers the production volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US [144][145]. - **4.4 Refined Oil Demand**: Focuses on the consumption volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US and the number of airport security checks for passengers [148][149][153]. - **4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export**: Details the import, export, and net export volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US [161][167][168]. 5. Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - It shows the average daily fees of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry [176][181].
机械设备行业跟踪周报:看好光伏设备出海、太空算力机会,推荐国内销售旺季来临的工程机械
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-01 10:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the mechanical equipment industry, with a focus on specific companies such as SANY Heavy Industry and Jiangsu HJT Equipment [1][35]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant opportunities in the photovoltaic equipment sector, particularly due to the dual demand from both ground and space applications, driven by initiatives like SpaceX's satellite deployment [2][25]. - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see a surge in activity as the construction season approaches, with historical data indicating a strong performance in Q1 [3][41]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI-driven demand in various sectors, including the semiconductor and energy industries, which are expected to experience substantial growth [38][44]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Equipment - SpaceX's application for deploying a satellite constellation presents a unique opportunity for equipment manufacturers, with a projected demand for GW-level space photovoltaic solutions [2][25]. - The ground photovoltaic market is also experiencing robust demand, particularly in Europe and the U.S., with expectations of equipment demand reaching 70-90 GW [2]. Engineering Machinery - The report notes that Q1 typically sees a spike in machinery activity due to budget releases and favorable weather conditions, with excavator sales historically accounting for a significant portion of annual sales [3][41]. - Recommended companies in this sector include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong [3][41]. AI and Semiconductor Equipment - The report discusses the increasing demand for AI computing power, which is expected to drive growth in the semiconductor equipment market, particularly for companies involved in PCB and PCBA production [19][32]. - Companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei are highlighted as key players benefiting from this trend [32]. Gas Turbine and Energy Equipment - The report identifies a growing demand for gas turbines due to the increasing electricity needs driven by AI data centers, with a projected supply gap in the market [29][30]. - Recommended companies in this area include Jereh and Yingliu, which are positioned to benefit from this demand surge [30]. Robotics and Automation - The anticipated mass production of Tesla's Optimus robot is expected to create opportunities for domestic component manufacturers, with companies like Hengli Hydraulic and New Coordinates being highlighted [45]. - The report suggests that the automation of assembly lines in the optical module sector is becoming a necessity due to the evolving market demands [20].
炬芯科技:2025年业绩预告点评以端侧产品AI化转型为核心,盈利规模与质量实现双向进阶-20260201
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-01 10:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2025, with total revenue projected at 921.74 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.40%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 203.87 million yuan, a substantial growth of 91.28% year-on-year [1][7] - The core product line is expanding, with the company's AI-enabled audio chips gaining traction in the market. The sales of low-latency, high-quality wireless audio products are experiencing rapid growth, and the penetration rate of Bluetooth audio SoC chips among leading audio brands is steadily increasing [7] - The company is increasing its R&D investment, with an estimated R&D expenditure of approximately 240 million yuan in 2025, reflecting an 11.56% year-on-year growth. This investment supports the development of next-generation products and technologies [7] Financial Projections - The company's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 9.22 billion yuan, 12.31 billion yuan, and 15.75 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.04 billion yuan, 2.73 billion yuan, and 3.76 billion yuan for the same period [7][8] - The net profit margin for 2025 is anticipated to reach 22.13%, an increase of 5.78 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024, indicating a continuous improvement in core profitability [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.16 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47.84 based on the latest diluted EPS [1][8]