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北交所周观察第二十一期:全市场公募产品配置北交所趋势日益凸显,关注稀缺与超预期公司
华源证券· 2025-04-13 03:46
证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 13 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC:S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC:S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页/ 共 15页 全市场公募产品配置北交所趋势日益凸显,关注稀缺与超预期公司 ——北交所周观察第二十一期(20250413) 投资要点: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 全市场公募产品配置北交所趋势日益凸显,440 只基金持仓名单中包含北交所公司。 截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日,2024 年基金产品年报中,共有 440 只基金持仓名单中包 含北交所公司,包括 168 只偏股混合型基金、114 只被动指数型基金、74 只灵活配 置型基金、37 只普通股票型基金、20 只偏债混合型基金、10 只增强型指数基金等 等。整体来看,北交所主题基金仅为 30 只(规模达到 113 亿元),其中北交所主动 型主 ...
康诺亚-B(02162):CM310多点开花助力商业化放量,创新管线稳步推进
华源证券· 2025-04-13 02:06
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the core product CM310 is set for significant commercialization growth, with a strong pipeline of innovative products progressing steadily [5][7] - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 696 million in 2025, RMB 1.157 billion in 2026, and RMB 2.247 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 62.66%, 66.21%, and 94.13% respectively [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 428 million, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, with a gross profit margin of 97.2% [7] - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was a loss of RMB 515 million, with a projected loss of RMB 695 million in 2025, but expected to turn profitable with a net profit of RMB 102 million in 2027 [6][8] - The company’s cash position at the end of the year was approximately RMB 21 billion, indicating a strong liquidity position [7] Product Pipeline and Market Strategy - CM310 has received approvals for three indications, including moderate to severe atopic dermatitis, chronic sinusitis with nasal polyps, and seasonal allergic rhinitis, positioning it for rapid sales growth [7] - The collaboration with AstraZeneca (AZ) on CMG901 is expected to enhance the company’s global market presence, with multiple clinical trials underway [7] - The company is actively pursuing diverse business development (BD) strategies to unlock the value of its early-stage pipeline, which includes several promising candidates in various stages of clinical trials [7]
安踏体育(02020):Q1部分品牌流水超预期,收购狼爪多品牌行稳致远
华源证券· 2025-04-12 13:08
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in Q1, with several brands exceeding expectations, and the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to stabilize and enhance its multi-brand strategy [5][7] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the sportswear industry in China, with significant growth potential through multi-brand operations and overseas expansion [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 62,661 million RMB - 2024: 70,826 million RMB (growth of 16.37%) - 2025E: 78,944.69 million RMB (growth of 11.46%) - 2026E: 87,795.88 million RMB (growth of 11.21%) - 2027E: 96,556.82 million RMB (growth of 9.98%) [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as follows: - 2023: 10,236 million RMB - 2024: 15,596 million RMB (growth of 52.36%) - 2025E: 13,500.18 million RMB (decline of 13.44%) - 2026E: 15,559.12 million RMB (growth of 15.25%) - 2027E: 17,142.09 million RMB (growth of 10.17%) [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be: - 2023: 3.69 RMB - 2024: 5.55 RMB - 2025E: 4.81 RMB - 2026E: 5.54 RMB - 2027E: 6.11 RMB [6] Brand Performance - The Anta brand recorded high single-digit growth in Q1 2025, maintaining stable operations - The FILA brand also showed high single-digit growth, continuing the improvement trend from Q4 2024 - Other brands experienced a significant growth rate of 65-70% in Q1 2025, benefiting from a high demand in the outdoor sports sector [7] Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for USD 290 million is expected to enhance the company's outdoor product matrix and broaden its customer base - Jack Wolfskin's established presence in Europe is anticipated to support the company's global expansion strategy [7]
恒瑞医药(600276):创新药收入高速增长,出海渐入佳境
华源证券· 2025-04-12 13:08
证券研究报告 医药生物 | 化学制药 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 12 日 证券分析师 刘闯 SAC:S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 市场表现: | 基本数据 | 年 | 04 | 2025 | | | 11 | 月 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | | | | | | | 48.38 | | | 年 内 高 / 最 低 | | | | 最 | 一 | | 57.53/37.24 | | | (元) | | | | | | | | | | 总市值(百万元) | | | | | | | 308,616.13 | | | 流通市值(百万元) | | | | | | | 308,616.13 | | | 总股本(百万股) | | | | | | | 6,379.00 | | | 资产负债率(%) | | | | | | | | 8.07 | | 每股净资产(元/股) | | | | | | | | 7.14 | ...
名创优品(09896):全球化布局稳步推进,重视公司IP渠道承接力
华源证券· 2025-04-11 12:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is steadily advancing its global layout and emphasizes its IP channel's capacity to capture demand [5] - The company achieved significant revenue growth in 2024, with a total revenue of 16.994 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [7] - The company completed its annual store opening target, with a total of 7,780 stores by the end of 2024, including 6,504 Miniso stores [7] - The overseas store expansion is notable, with 631 new stores opened abroad, accounting for 58% of total new openings [7] - The company's gross margin reached a historical high of 44.9% in 2024, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in overseas direct sales [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 11,473.21 million RMB - 2024: 16,994.03 million RMB - 2025E: 20,851.52 million RMB - 2026E: 24,818.06 million RMB - 2027E: 29,259.03 million RMB - The expected year-on-year growth rates for revenue are 13.76% in 2023, 48.12% in 2024, and 22.70% in 2025 [6] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 3,123.30 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.3% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 1.42 RMB in 2023 to 2.50 RMB in 2025 [6] Store Expansion and Product Strategy - The company has successfully launched new products under the WAKUKU brand, with a recent release selling out within two hours, indicating strong consumer interest [7] - The TOPTOY brand has also seen rapid overseas expansion, achieving a revenue of 984 million RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.7% [7] - The company is focusing on adjusting its revenue structure and IP product mix to enhance gross margin performance [7]
一品红(300723):困境反转,痛风大品种呼之欲出
华源证券· 2025-04-11 11:13
非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 11 日 刘闯 SAC:S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 李强 SAC:S1350524040001 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 市场表现: | 基本数据 | | | | 2025 | 年 | 04 | | | 11 | | 月 | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | | | | | | | | 35.18 | | | | | | | 一 年 内 最 低 | 最 | 高 | / | | | | | | | | | | | | (元) | | | | | | | 35.18/12.74 | | | | | | | | 总市值(百万元) | | | | | | | | | 15,890.55 | | | | | | 流通市值(百万元) | | | | | | | | | 14,874.7 ...
引力传媒(603598):技术与创意驱动,赋能成长再启航
华源证券· 2025-04-11 11:12
证券研究报告 传媒 | 广告营销 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 11 日 证券分析师 从本土广告先锋到全域营销领航者。公司于 2005 年于北京创立,2020 年成立磁力 MCN 进军直播电商,2021 年建成全域营销能力体系并实现千家客户覆盖,2022 年 设立香港分公司拓展跨境电商和营销出海,2023 年全面整合 AI 技术并共建行业大 模型实验室,完成从传统广告代理向数据与内容双驱动的全域营销转型。 核心看点:综艺内容制作底蕴深厚,海外营销服务快速布局。 陈良栋 SAC:S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 王世豪 SAC:S1350524120005 wangshihao@huayuanstock.com 魏桢 weizhen@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | 2025 | 年 | 04 | | 日 | | 10 | 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | | | | | ...
斯瑞新材(688102):铜基合金细分领域龙头,航天+医疗+半导体板块共振放量可期
华源证券· 2025-04-11 11:05
证券研究报告 投资评级: 增持(首次) ——铜基合金细分领域龙头,航天+医疗+半导体板块共振放量可期 有色金属 | 金属新材料 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 11 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC:S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC:S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC:S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC:S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 联系人 方皓 fanghao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现: | 基本数据 | | | 日 | 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | | | | | | 年 | | | | | | (元) | | | | | | 总市值(百万元) | | | 8,706.23 | | | 流通市值(百万元) | | | 8,706.23 ...
海达尔(836699):深耕精密滑轨,立足家电领域向服务器领域布局助力进口替代
华源证券· 2025-04-11 09:31
赵昊 SAC:S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC:S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现: | 基本数据 | | | | 2025 | 年 | 04 | | 10 | 日 | | 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | | | | | | | | 44.13 | | | | | 一 年 高 最 | 最 | 内 | / | | | | 低 | | | | | | (元) | | | | | | | | | | 61.75/13.01 | | | 总市值(百万元) | | | | | | | | 2,013.44 | | | | | 流通市值(百万元) | | | | | | | | 921.23 | | | | | 总股本(百万股) | | | | | | | | 45.63 | | | | | 资产负债率(%) | | | | | | | | 39.92 | | | ...
联想集团(00992):PC换机周期下的价值重估
华源证券· 2025-04-10 11:18
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage, highlighting a value reassessment amid the PC replacement cycle [5][87]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing PC replacement cycle, particularly as Windows 10 support ends in October 2025, which may drive demand for new devices [7][40]. - The AI transformation across its three main business segments (IDG, ISG, SSG) is expected to enhance growth and profitability [11][74]. - The report anticipates significant revenue growth in the commercial PC sector, with a projected shipment of 138 million units in 2025, reflecting a 4.3% year-on-year increase [59][60]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is HKD 7.50, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 93 billion [3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: USD 61.95 billion - 2024: USD 56.86 billion - 2025E: USD 67.65 billion - 2026E: USD 74.63 billion - 2027E: USD 80.35 billion - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: USD 1.68 billion - 2024: USD 1.10 billion - 2025E: USD 1.62 billion - 2026E: USD 1.80 billion - 2027E: USD 2.05 billion - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 7X for 2026, which is below the average PE of comparable companies [6][87]. Business Analysis - The company operates through three main segments: - Intelligent Device Group (IDG): Contributes 69% of revenue, with a projected growth rate of 12% from 2025 to 2027. - Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG): Accounts for 20% of revenue, with a forecasted growth of 52% in 2025. - Solutions and Services Group (SSG): Represents 11% of revenue, with expected growth of 11% in 2025 [19][21][83]. Key Growth Drivers - The report emphasizes the importance of the PC replacement cycle and the demand for AI-integrated PCs (AIPC) as significant growth drivers for the company [11][59]. - The company’s strategy includes leveraging its AI capabilities to enhance user experience and drive demand in both commercial and consumer markets [57][60]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has adopted a strategic framework called "One Horizontal and Five Verticals" to support its AI infrastructure, aiming to provide comprehensive solutions across various sectors [74]. - The SSG segment focuses on local market needs, enhancing its service offerings to meet the demands of various industries [80].