今日早参 2026 年 2 月 25 日 庄汀洲 石油与化工行业首席研究员 座机：010-56793939 邮箱：zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com 刘俊 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 座机：85293275834 邮箱：karlliu@htsc.com 边文姣 电力设备与新能源行业联席首席研究 员 座机：0755-82776411 邮箱：bianwenjiao@htsc.com 今日热点 基础化工：美将磷系农资列入战略资源影响深远 2026 年 2 月 18 日，特朗普政府援引《国防生产法》发布行政令，正式将磷 元素与草甘膦除草剂列为美国战略资源，以保障国内供应链安全。全球近几 年 80%的磷资源下游用于磷肥，草甘膦由于转基因抗性种子需求成为全球第 一大除草剂，二者是全球农资的核心环节。据 USGS，2025 年美国磷矿石 进口依存度 16%，主要来自秘鲁及摩洛哥。美国草甘膦本土产能充足，但考 虑厂商到对欧洲及南美的供应，仍需进口中国产草甘膦。相对而言，中国磷 矿石自给率较高，而草甘膦净出口且产能略过剩。我们认为，磷系农资列入 战略物资因美国对二者供应稳定性的强调，短期在粮价低迷需求不振背景 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 1.90, reflecting a valuation premium due to its leading position in the domestic livestock industry and expected profit elasticity under the dual-cycle resonance [5][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned at the core of the dairy industry's upstream sector, with a clear and steadily improving cyclical evolution path. It is expected to be at the bottom of the industry cycle in 2025, with marginal recovery in beef prices and low raw milk prices. The apparent profit losses in the company's financial statements are gradually narrowing, showcasing cash profit resilience [1][5]. - In 2026, the company is anticipated to enter a phase of cyclical recovery, with a gradual start of dairy and meat resonance. This is expected to lead to volume and price recovery, impairment improvement, and potential merger synergies, collectively enhancing performance elasticity [3][1]. - The peak of the dual-cycle resonance for dairy and meat is projected to occur in 2028, establishing a "stable milk and strong meat" pattern, with the company's profit foundation continuously solidifying and profit elasticity expected to be fully released [1][3]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 6.07 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. The raw milk business revenue was RMB 5.07 billion, down 0.8% year-on-year. Despite the decline in average raw milk prices, the company leveraged its industry-leading annual yield to effectively counteract price drop pressures [10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 was a loss of RMB 980 million, primarily due to weak raw milk prices leading to significant non-cash losses from fair value changes in biological assets. Excluding non-cash factors, cash EBITDA was RMB 1.48 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% [10]. 2026 Outlook - Under a neutral assumption, raw milk supply and demand are expected to be in a tight balance in 2026, with milk prices stabilizing and beef prices continuing to rise. The acquisition of China Shengmu is expected to be completed in 2026, leading to profit improvement [3][10]. - The company anticipates that the raw milk business revenue will achieve mid-single-digit growth year-on-year in 2026, benefiting from the downward trend in feed costs and steady yield improvement. If the subsequent acquisition proceeds smoothly, the herd size will increase from 470,000 to over 610,000, further releasing scale effects and synergy [10][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at RMB -0.14, RMB 0.09, and RMB 0.17 respectively, reflecting increases of 14% for both 2025 and 2026, and 22% for 2027 [4]. - The estimated tax-pre profit increment from the meat and milk cycle reversal from 2025 to 2028 is approximately RMB 3.1 billion [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 1.90, reflecting a valuation premium due to its leading position in the industry and expected profit elasticity under the dual-cycle resonance [5][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a core leader in the upstream dairy industry, with a clear and steadily improving cyclical evolution path. It is expected to be at the bottom of the industry cycle in 2025, with marginal recovery in beef prices and low raw milk prices. The apparent profit losses are gradually narrowing, showcasing cash profit resilience [1][5]. - In 2026, the company is anticipated to enter a phase of cyclical recovery, with a gradual initiation of dairy and meat resonance. This is expected to lead to volume and price recovery, impairment improvement, and potential merger synergies, collectively enhancing performance elasticity [3][1]. - The peak of the dual-cycle resonance for dairy and meat is projected to occur in 2028, establishing a "stable dairy and strong meat" pattern, with a solid foundation for profitability and significant profit elasticity expected to be released [3][1]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 6.07 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. The raw milk business revenue was RMB 5.07 billion, down 0.8% year-on-year. Despite the decline in raw milk prices, the company leveraged its industry-leading annual yield to effectively counteract price drop pressures [10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 was a loss of RMB 980 million, primarily due to weak raw milk prices leading to significant non-cash losses from fair value changes in biological assets [10]. 2026 Outlook - Under a neutral assumption, it is expected that raw milk supply and demand will be in a tight balance in 2026, with milk prices stabilizing and beef prices continuing to rise. The acquisition of China Shengmu is anticipated to be completed in 2026, leading to profit improvement [3][10]. - The company is expected to achieve a mid-single-digit growth in raw milk business revenue in 2026, benefiting from the downward trend in feed costs and steady yield improvements. If the acquisition proceeds smoothly, the herd size will increase from 470,000 to over 610,000, further enhancing scale effects and synergy [10][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at RMB -0.14, RMB 0.09, and RMB 0.17 respectively, reflecting increases of 14% for both 2025 and 2026, and 22% for 2027 [4]. - The estimated tax-pre profit increment from the meat and dairy cycle reversal from 2025 to 2028 is approximately RMB 3.1 billion [3].

证券研究报告 可选消费 海外看中国：高端消费复苏启示录 可选消费 增持 (维持) 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 惠普 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090006 SFC No. BSE005 孙丹阳 研究员 SAC No. S0570519010001 sundanyang@htsc.com SFC No. BQQ696 +(86) 21 2897 2038 张霜凝* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070015 zhangshuangning@htsc.com 华泰研究 复盘 2025 年海外集团在华经营表现，我们认为我国高端消费初显回暖信号。 以 LVMH 为例，FY3Q25 中国区销售额回正，录得中-高个位数同比增长 （vs1H25 亚太区：-9%），改善趋势逐步显现。品类上看，消费者重视价 值与体验，从面子走向里子，高端服务消费领先复苏，高端商品表现分化。 拉长看 ...

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 2025 年全球气电回顾与展望：增长远 超年初预期，2026 年有望再创辉煌 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 2025 回顾:美国领跑全球燃机需求增长，供电方案呈多元化趋势 根据 McCoy,4Q25 全球燃机新签订单 34GW，同/环比+134%/+42%，创十 年以来单季度新高（>10MW 口径，下同）。2025 全年全球燃机新签订单 合计 100GW，同比+75%，增速同比加快 42pct。全球燃机需求共振，2025 全年美国市场以 159%的同比增速领跑全球，订单占比 44%；非美市场亦实 现了 40%的订单同比增速，其中亚洲、中东等区域订单占比 22%、17%。 分企业看，三大主机厂商订单高增下有所分化。我们估算 GEV、西门子能 源、MHI 2025 年新增燃机订单 30、36、24GW，同比+48%、+197%、+51%， 2025 年市占率为 30%、36%、24%，同比-5、+15、-3pct，得益于均衡的 市场布局和完备的产品矩阵，西门子能源 2025 年实现了市占率大幅增长。 数据中心订单需求持续高增，推动订单销售均价提升。以 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aerospace and military industry [8] Core Views - The successful controlled sea splashdown of the Long March 10 rocket's first stage marks a significant breakthrough in rocket payload capacity, which is crucial for the development of the commercial space sector and the acceleration of satellite deployment [1][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of reusable rocket technology in reducing launch costs and enhancing satellite internet construction, which is expected to benefit the satellite industry chain [15][12] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the advancements in China's reusable rocket technology, which is seen as a key factor in enhancing launch capacity and reducing costs, thereby accelerating satellite deployment [1][15] - The military modernization during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to shift from quantity to quality, creating structural opportunities in military equipment demand [2] Key Companies - Recommended companies include Torch Electronics, Hongyuan Electronics, AVIC Optoelectronics, Steel Research Nack, Gaode Infrared, Aerospace Intelligence, and AVIC High-Tech, all rated as "Buy" except for AVIC High-Tech, which is rated as "Hold" [3][37] - The report provides target prices for these companies, indicating strong growth potential based on their performance and market conditions [37] Market Performance - The report notes that the aerospace and military sector outperformed the market, with a 2.17% increase in the defense and military index, ranking 8th among 31 sectors [24] - The report includes a detailed analysis of stock performance, highlighting significant gainers and losers within the industry [9][10] Valuation Metrics - As of February 13, 2026, the Shenyin Wanguo defense and military sector index has a PE (TTM) of 97.40, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [29][34] - The report provides a breakdown of PE ratios for various sub-sectors within the military industry, indicating varying levels of valuation across different segments [29][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities and banking sectors [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the structural relaxation of refinancing policies, which is expected to improve profitability in the banking sector. The central bank's Q4 monetary policy report emphasizes the implementation of personal credit repair measures, supporting micro-entities [1][28]. - The report identifies investment opportunities in the order of securities > insurance > banking, with a focus on the potential for marginal improvements in the brokerage business due to the recent refinancing policy adjustments [12][24]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The optimization of refinancing measures announced by the exchanges is expected to lead to marginal improvements in the brokerage business, with leading firms likely to solidify their advantages through professional capabilities. The Chinese brokerage index performed better than the Hang Seng index during the holiday period, increasing by 0.20% [2][13]. - Recommended stocks include leading brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities, as well as quality regional firms like Guoyuan Securities [3][12]. Insurance Sector - The report notes a mixed performance in the insurance sector, with property insurance companies showing gains while life insurance companies mostly declined. China Property & Casualty Insurance rose by 5%, while China Taiping fell by 4% [24][25]. - Investors are advised to focus on quality leaders in the insurance sector, with a preference for defensive stocks like China Ping An and China Life Insurance for conservative investors [24][25]. Banking Sector - The banking sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with Q4 profits improving and net interest margins stabilizing. The report indicates a year-on-year increase in social financing, primarily due to the pre-positioning of government bonds and a rebound in off-balance-sheet financing [28][37]. - Recommended stocks include quality regional banks such as Nanjing Bank and Chengdu Bank, which are expected to perform well due to their strong fundamentals [3][28].

2026 年 2 月 23 日│中国内地 动态点评 汽车 增持 (维持) | 宋亭亭 | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570522110001 | songtingting021619@htsc.com | | SFC No. BTK945 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | 张硕* | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570524110001 zhangshuo023124@htsc.com | | | | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 郭春麟* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124110001 guochunlin@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 证券研究报告 汽车 国产机器人亮相春晚有望点燃市场热情 ——智驾&机器人双周报 2 华泰研究 行业走势图 (15) (6) 3 12 21 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb-26 (%) 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 重点推荐 | | | 目标价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 股票代码 | ...

证券研究报告 据猫眼专业版，26 年春节档（廿八至初七共 9 天，其中初七为预估）总票 房将达 57.37 亿元，同比 25 年春节档（除夕至初七共 8 天，同比口径下同） 下降 39.7%，较 24 年春节档（初一至初八共 8 天）下降 28.4%；观影人次 约 1.19 亿，同降 36.2%；平均票价约 48.1 元，同降 5.3%。26 年春节档《飞 驰人生 3》以绝对优势领跑票房，其余影片票房分化较大，"口碑为王"趋 势下行业需继续提升品控和工业化水准。标的上，关注热门电影出品方和院 线龙头公司，包括大麦娱乐、万达电影。产业链标的还有博纳影业、猫眼娱 乐。 传媒 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 23 日│中国内地 专题研究 26 年春节档票房同降约 40%，观影人次疲弱 观影人次、均价双降，或因高基数、假期出游增加、内容匹配度不足 春节档票房遇冷，观影人次疲弱 根据猫眼专业版，26 年春节档观影人次较 25 年同降 36.2%；平均票价（含 服务费）较 25 年同降 5.3%。我们认为观影人次和平均票价下降的主要原因 包括：1）25 年春节档大 IP 加持下票房创新高形成高基数；2）26 年春节 假期 ...

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 24 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：美国高院驳回"特朗普关税"后的波折与推演 继美国国际贸易法院与联邦巡回上诉法院先后裁定"特朗普关税"违法后 （参见《法院裁决能阻止特朗普加征关税吗？》，2025/5/30），当地时间 2026 年 2 月 20 日（周五），美国最高法院判定特朗普依据《国际紧急经济 权力法》（IEEPA）征收的"对等关税"和"芬太尼关税"违法。如我们此前 预测，最高法院判决后，特朗普政府当日提出替代性关税政策，表示将依据 美国《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条在常规关税基础上对全球商品加征 10%的 关税，并很快次日在社交媒体 Truth Social 上表示将对部分国家关税上调至 15%，但未公布具体国家列表（参见《最高法院挑战"特朗普关税"后续如 何？》，2025/11/12）。然而，我们认为特朗普关税风波并不会由此平息，不 仅后续关税政策仍有变数，围绕已征收的大量关税返还的机制和体量也仍悬 而未决。IEEPA 关税被驳回彰显了美国"三权分立"体 ...