Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 7.60, up from a previous value of HKD 6.73, based on a 18x PE for 2026 [5][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned at the bottom of the industry cycle in 2025, with expectations of a rebound in beef prices and stabilization in raw milk prices. The fair value changes in biological assets are expected to reduce losses, potentially leading to a positive year-on-year profit in the second half of 2025 [1][3]. - A recovery phase is anticipated in 2026, with a "milk and meat resonance" expected to drive performance improvements. The peak of this dual-cycle resonance is projected for 2028, establishing a "stable milk and strong meat" scenario, which will solidify the company's profit base and enhance profit elasticity [1][3]. - The company is expected to achieve a cumulative pre-tax profit increase of approximately RMB 4 billion from the reversal of the meat and milk cycle from 2025 to 2028 [3]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The company is expected to maintain cash profitability despite being at the bottom of the cycle, with a projected revenue of RMB 20.89 billion, reflecting a 3.96% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 407.63 million, a significant recovery from a loss of RMB 861.49 million in 2024 [9][10]. 2026 Outlook - For 2026, a balanced supply-demand situation in raw milk is anticipated, with milk prices expected to stabilize and rise. The company’s cash profitability is projected to improve, supported by rising beef prices and a reduction in biological asset impairments [3][10]. - The expected average price of fresh milk in China is forecasted to rise to RMB 3.6 per kilogram by 2028, with beef prices recovering to previous cycle highs, contributing to a robust profit structure for the company [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been revised upwards, with net profits projected at RMB 4.1 billion, RMB 15.8 billion, and RMB 30.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The corresponding EPS is expected to be RMB 0.10, RMB 0.38, and RMB 0.73 [4][9]. - The valuation is based on a comparison with peers, with a reference PE of 18x for 2026, leading to a target price of HKD 7.60 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [8] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of personal credit repair policies and the collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies to support high-quality development [3][5] - The social comprehensive financing cost has decreased, with the weighted average interest rate for new loans at approximately 3.15%, down 10 basis points from September [2] - The report highlights the rapid growth of asset management products, which is changing the deposit structure and maintaining liquidity stability [4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Personal Credit Repair and Risk Prevention - The central bank has introduced a one-time personal credit repair policy to support individuals with overdue information under 10,000 yuan after full repayment, aiming to stimulate micro-entity vitality [4] Section 2: Financing Costs and Credit Structure - The weighted average interest rates for general loans and corporate loans have decreased to 3.55% and 3.10%, respectively, while personal housing loan rates remained stable at 3.06% [2] - Loans for technology, green finance, inclusive finance, and digital economy sectors have shown significant year-on-year growth, with increases of 11.5%, 20.2%, 10.9%, and 14.1% respectively [2] Section 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Collaboration - The central bank has increased the quotas for re-loans aimed at technological innovation and small enterprises by 900 billion yuan, alongside a dedicated 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises [3] - The green loan balance reached 44.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a 20.2% year-on-year growth, indicating a robust green finance market [3] Section 4: Liquidity and Credit Governance - The report suggests observing liquidity from a combined perspective of asset management products and bank deposits, noting an 8.1% year-on-year growth in total liquidity indicators [4] - The overall social financing environment remains loose, supporting the ongoing credit repair initiatives [4] Section 5: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The central bank aims to maintain reasonable growth in financial totals and implement moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on price recovery and risk prevention [5] - The report outlines the need for improved market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanisms to better reflect loan market rates [5]

证券研究报告 汽车 摩托质价比破局时刻已至 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 10 日│中国内地 专题研究 核心观点：质价比破局时刻已至，摩托出海步入收获期 本届米兰展上我们观察到，欧洲摩托市场的需求结构演变，以及外资二线品 牌的守成产品策略，正为中国品牌的强势突围提供契机。随着以隆鑫、春风 为代表的中国头部摩企在技术储备与渠道建设上完成质的积累，向欧洲出海 已跨越单纯的价格竞争阶段，步入以"质价比"重塑市场格局的新周期。中国 摩企凭借动总技术突破、智能化配置优势以及针对欧洲本土审美的定制化设 计，正于 300 至 800cc 黄金排量段及跨界细分市场建立明显优势，在欧洲 市场具备广阔增长空间。 米兰展透视：中量级和跨界车趋势兴起，利好中国品牌切入 行业维度看，欧洲摩托市场短期受库存调整扰动，但长期稳健扩容态势未改， 且内部结构性机遇凸显，为中国品牌创造了突围机会：1）通胀推升价格敏 感度叠加年轻骑手占比提高，驱动排量需求向中量级收敛；2）用户偏好转 向多场景兼容，供给相对稀缺的跨界车型加速渗透。格局维度看，本届米兰 展上，一线日系本田、雅马哈凭借顶尖电控技术普惠夯实护城河，宝马依托 GS 生态势能下探排量扩圈 ...

证券研究报告 港股通 南山铝业国际 (2610 HK) 兼具稳定现金流与高成长性 2026 年 2 月 10 日│中国香港 首次覆盖南山铝业国际给予买入评级，给予 26 年 PE13 倍，对应目标价 78.18 港元。公司是东南亚领先的氧化铝生产商，已形成 400 万吨氧化铝产 能，此外公司计划新建 25 万吨/年电解铝产能，并远期规划建设 50 万吨/年 电解铝项目，公司氧化铝业务利润稳定叠加 2028 年之后新建电解铝项目或 贡献较大业绩增量，我们看好公司未来利润实现稳步增长。 公司当前主营氧化铝业务成本优势显著，构筑稳固现金流 公司主营业务为氧化铝生产与销售，于 2025 年 3 月成功在香港联交所主板 上市，控股股东为 A 股上市公司南山铝业。截至 25 年年底，公司在印尼宾 坦岛建成并投产年产能合计 400 万吨的氧化铝生产基地。受益于印尼丰富 的铝土矿资源禀赋及铝土矿出口禁令政策，公司氧化铝原料端成本优势显 著，根据我们测算，2024 年铝土矿采购均价仅 35.0 美元/吨，显著低于几 内亚和澳大利亚 CIF 均价的 76.5 美元/吨和 62. 5 美元/吨。低成本优势导致 公司氧化铝销售业务盈 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 47.00, down from the previous HKD 53.8 [1][2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the rising prices of DRAM and NAND storage are expected to negatively impact the global demand for consumer electronics and brand gross margins. Despite this, the company is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% year-on-year in 4Q25, driven by the delivery of 140,000 vehicles [1][2]. - The automotive business is showing significant growth, with expected revenue of RMB 37.2 billion in 4Q25, representing a 123% year-on-year increase. However, the gross margin for the automotive segment is anticipated to fluctuate due to the changing delivery mix [3][4]. - The smartphone segment is facing challenges, with a projected decline in shipments to 37.8 million units in 4Q25, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year, and a gross margin expected to drop to approximately 8.5% [1][4]. - The Internet of Things (IoT) segment is expected to see a revenue decline of 19% year-on-year to RMB 25.2 billion, while maintaining a high gross margin of 22.2% [1][4]. - The Internet services revenue is projected to grow by 2% year-on-year to RMB 9.5 billion, with a stable gross margin of 76.9% [1][4]. Summary by Sections Automotive and New Business - The company is expected to deliver approximately 140,000 vehicles in 4Q25, generating revenue of RMB 37.2 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.2%. The gross margin for the automotive segment is projected to be around 21.6% [3][4]. - For 2026, the company aims to deliver 650,000 vehicles, exceeding its initial target of 550,000 units, supported by new model launches [2][3]. Smartphone/IoT/Internet - The global smartphone market is projected to see a decline in shipments, with the company's smartphone shipments expected to decrease by 10% year-on-year to 148 million units in 2026. The average selling price (ASP) is anticipated to increase by approximately 5% due to product mix improvements [4][5]. - The IoT business is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year to RMB 130.5 billion, driven primarily by overseas demand [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards by 3.1%, 9.5%, and 11.5%, respectively. The Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period have also been reduced by 9.1%, 21.4%, and 19.4% [5][10]. - The target price of HKD 47 corresponds to a 29x PE ratio based on the 2026 earnings forecast [5][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [6][5]. Core Views - The company is establishing a joint venture in the U.S. with Harmonic Drive to develop humanoid robot joint modules, marking a significant step in its global robotics business expansion. This follows a strategic partnership in Europe for manufacturing and supplying components [1][2]. - The company's traditional business is expected to maintain steady growth, with the battery box business accelerating globally. New strategic initiatives in robotics, AI, liquid cooling, and low-altitude economy are anticipated to enhance long-term growth potential [1][2]. - The battery box business is entering a harvest phase, with revenue of 3.582 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.8%. The gross margin for this segment is 23.0%, up by 2.4 percentage points [4]. - The company has secured significant orders in the liquid cooling sector and is strategically positioning itself in the low-altitude economy, including eVTOL systems [3]. - The company has set revenue forecasts of 27.774 billion RMB for 2025, 32.033 billion RMB for 2026, and 36.851 billion RMB for 2027, with net profits projected at 2.847 billion RMB, 3.430 billion RMB, and 4.070 billion RMB respectively [5][9]. Summary by Sections Joint Ventures and Strategic Partnerships - The company signed a framework agreement with Harmonic Drive to establish a joint venture in the U.S. for humanoid robot joint modules, with a 60% ownership stake and an investment of 10 million USD. This complements a previous partnership in Europe for manufacturing and distribution [1][2]. New Business Developments - The company is diversifying into multiple new business areas, including liquid cooling and low-altitude economy sectors, with strategic partnerships and orders already in place. A stock incentive plan has been implemented to support key personnel in these new ventures [3]. Financial Performance and Projections - The battery box business is experiencing significant growth, with a revenue increase of 49.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. The company is also benefiting from the rising penetration of new energy vehicles in Europe [4]. - The financial forecasts indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a target price set at 49.71 HKD for 2026, corresponding to a PE ratio of 15.2 [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several financial institutions including China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank, and a "Hold" rating for others like GF Securities and Dongfang Securities [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a net outflow of 1.01 trillion yuan from broad-based ETFs in January 2026, indicating increased market volatility and a shift in investor sentiment towards high-quality financial stocks [1][3]. - The overall market for wealth management products saw a decrease in issuance, with 2,728 new products launched in January 2026, down 10.4% month-on-month, while the average yield for these products increased to 3.62%, up 177 basis points from the previous month [2][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the newly implemented performance benchmark guidelines for public funds, which aim to strengthen the alignment of interests between fund managers and investors [3][15]. Summary by Sections Wealth Management Products - In January 2026, the total issuance of wealth management products was 2,728, a decrease of 10.4% from December, while the total market size for these products was 31.57 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline [2][16]. - The average yield for wealth management products increased to 3.62%, reflecting a positive trend in returns despite the decrease in issuance [2][15]. Public Funds - The public fund market saw a 6% increase in new issuance in January, but the total market size decreased to 36.30 trillion yuan, down 1.24% month-on-month [3][15]. - The net asset value of ETFs fell to 5.46 trillion yuan, with a significant outflow of 1.01 trillion yuan from broad-based ETFs [3][15]. Private Funds - As of December 2025, the total size of private fund products reached 22.15 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.27% [5][15]. - The report notes a strong growth in the registration of private securities investment funds, which increased by 157% year-on-year [5][15]. Insurance Asset Management - By the end of Q3 2025, the balance of insurance funds reached 37.46 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [6][15]. - The report indicates a rising trend in the allocation of insurance funds to equities, with a notable increase in stock investment ratios [6][15]. Securities Asset Management - The size of securities asset management reached 6.37 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% [4][15]. - New issuance in January 2026 amounted to 77.42 billion units, representing a 20% increase from the previous month [4][15]. Trust Industry - The trust industry reported an asset size of 32.43 trillion yuan as of June 2025, marking a 10% increase since the beginning of the year [7][15]. - In January 2026, 1,377 trust products were issued, totaling 110.5 billion yuan, which is a 15% month-on-month increase [7][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage sector, suggesting investors take advantage of low prices to acquire quality leading companies [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the food and beverage sector, driven by seasonal demand and improved sales performance during the Chinese New Year [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading brands with strong fundamentals, particularly in the liquor and dairy segments, as they are expected to outperform their peers [2][4]. Summary by Category Liquor - The liquor industry is experiencing a divergence in performance, with top brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye showing strong sales, while others face challenges [1]. - Kweichow Moutai benefits from marketing reforms and strong demand, with its product prices stabilizing above 1600 RMB [1]. - Recommendations include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and other leading brands for investment [1]. Dairy Products - Major dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu are expected to achieve strong sales during the Chinese New Year, with inventory levels remaining healthy [2]. - The report anticipates a turning point in the raw milk cycle, with prices expected to stabilize, benefiting leading dairy firms [2]. - Recommended stocks include Yili and Mengniu, which are expected to gain market share in 2026 [2]. Restaurant Supply Chain and Condiments - The report sees a recovery in the restaurant sector, supported by government policies and improved consumer confidence [3]. - Leading companies are adjusting pricing strategies to enhance profitability, with inventory levels remaining healthy [3]. - Key recommendations include Anjijia and Haitian Flavoring, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions [3]. Snacks - The snack industry is poised for growth, with increased sales during the Chinese New Year and a shift towards efficient retail channels [4]. - Recommended stocks include Weilian and Qiaqia, which are expected to maintain high profitability levels [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Nanshan Aluminum International with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of HKD 78.18 based on a PE of 13 times for 2026 [1]. Core Views - Nanshan Aluminum is a leading alumina producer in Southeast Asia with a stable cash flow and high growth potential, having established a production capacity of 4 million tons of alumina and plans for additional aluminum production [1][2]. - The company benefits from significant cost advantages in its alumina business due to Indonesia's rich bauxite resources and export bans, leading to higher profitability compared to domestic averages [2][14]. - A new 250,000-ton aluminum production capacity is expected to be operational by 2028, which could significantly boost future earnings [3][15]. - The global aluminum price is projected to reach an average of USD 3,200 per ton in 2026, supported by limited supply growth and recovering demand [4][16]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Nanshan Aluminum International is primarily engaged in alumina production and sales, with a production base in Indonesia. The company has a total alumina capacity of 4 million tons, benefiting from low raw material costs [2][14]. - The company is controlled by Nanshan Aluminum, which holds a 56.97% stake, ensuring stable governance and resource support [18][20]. Financial Performance - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of USD 1.2 billion, USD 1.48 billion, and USD 1.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Net profits are expected to reach USD 412.1 million, USD 475.3 million, and USD 568.3 million in the same years [5][11]. - The company has maintained a high gross margin, with a projected gross profit margin of 51% in the first half of 2025 [21][27]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the global supply of aluminum is expected to grow slowly, with a projected increase of only 1.7% in 2026. This is due to domestic production constraints and slow recovery in overseas capacities [4][34]. - Demand for aluminum is anticipated to grow by approximately 2.4% in 2026, driven by a recovery in the global manufacturing sector [4][16]. Future Growth Potential - The planned 250,000-ton aluminum project is expected to contribute approximately USD 259 million in net profit once operational, with further expansion plans for an additional 500,000 tons in the future [3][15]. - The company’s low-cost structure and stable cash flow from its alumina business are expected to support its growth trajectory and profitability in the coming years [2][14].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) achieved a significant victory in the recent elections, gaining over 20% more seats in the House of Representatives, which is unprecedented since World War II. This victory is expected to facilitate the implementation of loose monetary and fiscal policies, as well as a "Japan First" foreign policy [2][3] - The global manufacturing PMI rose for the sixth consecutive month in January, indicating ongoing recovery in the manufacturing sector. Developed countries showed more significant improvements compared to emerging markets, with new orders and export orders also improving [3] Group 2: Fixed Income and Market Trends - The A-share market experienced a decline due to macroeconomic fluctuations, with net outflows of financing funds exceeding 50 billion. The pricing power is shifting towards institutional funds, with a notable increase in the positions of active equity funds [4][5] - The liquidity tracking report indicated a marginal easing in the funding environment, with DR007 averaging 1.48%, down 9 basis points from the previous week. The overall net injection in the open market was -6,560 billion [5] Group 3: Real Estate and Commercial Property - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with residential prices experiencing the largest monthly increase since April 2025. The inventory of unsold new homes is decreasing, and rental prices have reached historical highs [8] - The introduction of REITs in commercial real estate is progressing rapidly, with 10 projects successfully submitted for approval. This development is expected to enhance asset liquidity and drive value re-evaluation for related companies [12] Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - Enphase Energy reported a revenue of $343 million for Q4 2025, a year-on-year decline of 10.3%. However, the company anticipates a recovery in performance due to new product launches and favorable market conditions [19] - The domestic chemical industry is expected to see improved profitability as the price spread between raw materials and products has widened, driven by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand [10] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for companies like Minshi Group, which is expanding its robotics business in the U.S. and Europe, indicating a strong growth trajectory in traditional and new business segments [18] - The approval of D-allohexose enzyme preparations in China is expected to benefit Baolong Chuangyuan, a leader in functional sugars, as it accelerates the application of allulose in the market [20]