1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has recovered, and credit has followed the decline in interest rates. The credit spreads in the 3 - 7Y period have all converged. The yields of various - term credit bonds have also significantly declined, and the credit spreads of different - term and - grade bonds have shown different changes [3][10] - The spreads of urban investment bonds have generally decreased by 2BP, with spreads of different - rated and - level platforms showing varying degrees of decline [4][15][19] - The spreads of real - estate bonds have generally continued to widen, but the spread of Vanke has been significantly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds have slightly declined [4][25] - The yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds have continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period [5][33] - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds have widened, while the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds have shown differentiation [5][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market and Credit Spreads Convergence - This week, the bond market recovered, and the interest - rate curve steeply declined. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y CDB bonds decreased by 2BP, 1BP, 2BP, 3BP, and 4BP respectively. The yields of various - term credit bonds also dropped significantly. From the perspective of credit spreads, the 3 - 7Y credit spreads all narrowed [3][10] 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - The spreads of urban investment bonds decreased by 2BP overall. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all decreased by 2BP compared to last week. By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - county platforms decreased by 2BP compared to last week [4][15][19] 3.3 Real - Estate and Other Industrial Bond Spreads - The spreads of real - estate bonds continued to widen overall, but the spread of Vanke was greatly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds slightly declined. The spreads of central - state - owned real - estate bonds widened by 4BP, state - owned real - estate bonds by 1BP, private real - estate bonds by 17BP, and mixed - ownership real - estate bonds converged by 103BP [4][25] 3.4 Secondary - Tier and Perpetual Bond Yields and Spreads - This week, the yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period. The yields of different - grade 1Y secondary - tier capital bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and perpetual bonds by 2BP; 3Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 3BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP; 5Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 2 - 4BP, and perpetual bonds by 1 - 2BP; 10Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 5BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP [5][33] 3.5 Excess Spreads of Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds - This week, the excess spread of 3Y industrial AAA - grade perpetual bonds widened by 0.26BP to 14.67BP, and the 5Y by 0.01BP to 13.21BP. The 3Y urban - investment AAA - grade perpetual - bond excess spread decreased by 0.48BP to 4.03BP, and the 5Y increased by 3.21BP to 13.34BP [5][36] 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial - bank secondary - tier spreads, and urban - investment/industrial perpetual - bond credit spreads are based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual - bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban - investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the Huafu Securities Research Institute, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [38][40]

Group 1: Policy Environment - The Shanghai real estate market in 2025 is expected to operate steadily under a backdrop of continuous policy easing, product quality upgrades, and increasing market differentiation [1][2] - No major new policies are anticipated for the year, with a focus on continuity in stimulus measures [1] - Key policy changes include the lifting of purchase limits for non-residents in August and the introduction of the "Good House" regulations in September, which aim to enhance housing quality [1][9][14] Group 2: Land Market - The land market is characterized by a "rise then fall" trend, with overall transaction volumes expected to remain stable compared to 2024 [1][17] - In the first half of the year, premium land parcels in core areas were sold at high premiums, with 17 parcels exceeding a 20% premium rate [1][20] - The second half saw a return to rationality in the market, with bottom-price transactions becoming the norm, led by state-owned enterprises [1][23] Group 3: Residential Market - The supply-demand ratio in the residential market has decreased to 0.94, marking a five-year low, indicating effective inventory reduction [2] - The average transaction price has structurally increased to 80,600 yuan per square meter, primarily driven by luxury properties in central urban areas [2] - The market is dominated by demand for 90-110 square meter units and properties priced between 3 million to 7 million yuan, with a notable increase in sales of high-quality products [2][12] Group 4: Developer Landscape - State-owned enterprises like China Overseas and Jinmao dominate the market, with China Resources, Poly, and China Merchants ranking among the top three in sales [2] - The collaboration among real estate companies is stabilizing, indicating a shift towards more strategic partnerships [2] - The overall outlook for the Shanghai real estate market in 2025 suggests a gradual recovery supported by policy optimization and supply structure adjustments [2]

- The report defines long-term heavy positions as stocks that appear in the top ten holdings of a fund for four or more consecutive reporting periods[9] - The report provides a list of stocks heavily held by funds in Q4 2025, including CATL, Tencent Holdings, Zijin Mining, Kweichow Moutai, and Midea Group[9][10] - The report calculates the termination ratio of long-term heavy positions for Q4 2025 using the formula: $$ \text{Termination Ratio} = \frac{\text{Number of funds terminating long-term heavy positions in Q4 2025}}{\text{Number of funds holding long-term heavy positions in Q3 2025}} $$[14] - The report identifies stocks with the highest and lowest termination ratios in Q4 2025, such as Xiaomi Group and Poly Developments with high termination ratios, and Baili Tianheng and Zijin Mining with low termination ratios[14][18] - The report also analyzes the termination ratios of long-term heavy positions by industry, noting that the media, food and beverage, and electrical equipment industries have relatively low termination ratios, indicating fund managers' optimism about these sectors[20][22]

Market Overview - On January 23, the real estate development sector rose by 1.07% compared to the previous trading day, with Huaxia Happiness leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14439.66, up 0.79% [1] Top Gainers in Real Estate Sector - Huaxia Happiness (600340) closed at 1.77, with a gain of 9.94% and a trading volume of 2.7 million shares, amounting to a transaction value of 472 million yuan [1] - Shunfa Hengneng (000631) closed at 3.90, up 8.94%, with a trading volume of 716,300 shares and a transaction value of 271 million yuan [1] - Xian Dao Ji Dian (600641) closed at 19.97, gaining 8.00%, with a trading volume of 765,500 shares and a transaction value of 1.491 billion yuan [1] - Other notable gainers include Daming City (600094) at 5.46 (+6.02%), and Zhu Tu Group (600185) at 7.04 (+5.71%) [1] Top Losers in Real Estate Sector - Chengtou Holdings (600649) closed at 5.16, down 5.15%, with a trading volume of 1.426 million shares and a transaction value of 744 million yuan [2] - Hefei Urban Construction (002208) closed at 14.96, down 3.30%, with a trading volume of 787,600 shares and a transaction value of 1.174 billion yuan [2] - Other notable losers include ST Zhongdi (000609) at 8.12 (-2.29%) and Dayue City (000031) at 3.34 (-1.76%) [2] Capital Flow Analysis - On the same day, the real estate development sector experienced a net outflow of 29.22 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 613 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow was observed in Poly Development (600048) with a net inflow of 206 million yuan, while Huaxia Happiness (600340) had a net outflow of 148 million yuan from main capital [3] - Other companies with significant capital movements include Xian Dao Ji Dian (600641) with a net inflow of 114 million yuan and Zhu Tu Group (600185) with a net inflow of 70.56 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments is experiencing cyclical pressure on profitability due to declining settlement profit margins and significant impairments affecting performance, but valuation is expected to recover under anticipated policy easing [1] Group 1: Profitability and Performance - The company's profitability is under pressure from declining settlement profit margins and substantial impairments impacting performance [1] - Despite the pressure on gross margins at the settlement end due to industry downturn, profitability is expected to gradually bottom out as new land reserves are recognized [1] - Following significant impairments, the company's future impairment pressure has eased, and it is actively improving land reserve quality through "adjustment and replacement" strategies [1] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The company continues to optimize its land reserve structure through land exchanges and regulatory adjustments, aiming to enhance the quality of its land reserves [1] - The company’s sales scale is expected to remain among the industry leaders, supported by a robust inventory of land reserves, despite some inefficiencies due to historical reasons [1] - The company plans to increase the acquisition of quality land parcels by 2025 to further optimize its land reserve structure [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The cyclical pressure on the industry is likely to impact short-term performance, but once the cycle rebounds, leading state-owned enterprises may exhibit significant performance elasticity [1] - With the expectation of policy easing amid cyclical pressures, valuation recovery for leading state-owned enterprises is anticipated [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is transitioning from a phase of deep adjustment to one of confidence rebuilding, supported by a series of favorable policies aimed at stabilizing and improving market expectations [2][3]. Policy Impact - A combination of policies, including tax exemptions for property exchanges, reductions in public housing interest rates, and a decrease in the down payment ratio for commercial properties to 30%, has been introduced to stimulate the housing market [1][2]. - In Shandong, the "Guiding Opinions on Housing 'Old for New'" has been officially released, featuring 15 measures to facilitate the exchange between new and old properties, thereby activating demand for improved housing [2]. Company Strategy - Poly Developments has been actively responding to national strategies, leveraging its leading "Good House" system to accelerate development in Shandong, focusing on product quality, service, culture, and action [2][5]. - The company has developed 67 projects in Shandong over 19 years, showcasing its commitment to product innovation and quality, which has contributed to its top sales performance nationally for three consecutive years [5][31]. Product Offerings - Poly Developments has established three product lines: "Tian," "Yue," and "He," each catering to different customer segments and lifestyle needs [7][19]. - The "Tian" series targets discerning individuals, exemplified by the Poly Qingtie Tianjun Ruihai project, which features premium locations and high-end design [9][10]. - The "Yue" series is designed for urban elites, offering efficient and high-quality living spaces, such as the Poly Qingtie Duxin Langyue project, which emphasizes low density and high-quality amenities [13][14]. - The "He" series focuses on creating warm and culturally rich communities for young families, emphasizing practical layouts and community engagement [17][19]. Marketing Initiatives - The "2026 Win Spring Housing Action" has been launched to resonate with returning home seekers, offering various promotional gifts and discounts to enhance the home-buying experience [20][22][27]. - The initiative includes a series of marketing activities designed to redefine the concept of home, emphasizing warmth, community, and future living expectations [27][28]. Community Engagement - Poly Developments is implementing the "Poly Good Service" system and creating cultural IPs like "Four Seasons Elegant Gatherings" to enhance community living experiences [28][30]. - The company aims to foster neighborly connections and enrich residents' spiritual lives through regular community events and cultural activities [29][30]. Conclusion - Poly Developments is positioning itself as a leader in the real estate market by integrating favorable policies, innovative products, and community-focused services, thereby redefining the value of living spaces in Shandong [31][32][33].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the high-end real estate market, particularly in first-tier cities like Shanghai, which continues to lead in sales performance [3][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite a general downturn in the real estate market, luxury properties are experiencing a unique surge, with several projects achieving sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, reflecting a growing consensus on the value of "certainty" in asset allocation during uncertain times [3][11]. - The luxury market is characterized by a significant demand for properties priced over 10 million yuan, with 21 out of the top 30 projects achieving this threshold, indicating a shift towards higher-value transactions [13][19]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The top 30 projects in key cities are predominantly led by state-owned enterprises, with about 80% of these projects being developed by such entities, showcasing a trend towards collaborative development to mitigate risks [12]. - Shanghai dominates the luxury market, accounting for 13 out of the 30 top projects, with a notable resilience in high-end demand despite overall market adjustments [7][11]. Sales Performance - In 2025, the luxury segment showed a mere 2% decline in transaction volume for properties priced over 10 million yuan, while overall new residential sales in 25 key cities dropped by 22% [7][11]. - The report notes that the average price for luxury properties has crossed the 100,000 yuan per square meter mark, with several projects exceeding 150,000 yuan per square meter [13][19]. Consumer Preferences - High-net-worth individuals are increasingly prioritizing properties that offer unique locations, quality services, and features that meet their evolving needs, such as efficient space utilization and enhanced living experiences [14][16]. - The integration of cultural elements and advanced technology in property design is becoming essential to appeal to affluent buyers, reflecting a shift in consumer expectations towards lifestyle and identity [17][18]. Future Trends - The report anticipates a long-term trend of market differentiation, where high-end properties will continue to thrive due to their perceived value and certainty, while ordinary residential markets may face ongoing challenges [19].

Group 1 - The total margin financing balance in A-shares reached 27,249.13 billion yuan, an increase of 38.90 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.62% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The margin trading volume on the same day was 2,686.14 billion yuan, which is an increase of 78.01 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 9.88% of the total A-share trading volume [1] Group 2 - Among the 31 primary industries, 18 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the electronics industry leading at a net inflow of 1.749 billion yuan [3] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows include telecommunications, non-bank financials, and basic chemicals [3] Group 3 - A total of 53 individual stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with China Ping An leading at a net inflow of 658 million yuan [3][4] - Other notable stocks with high net financing inflows include Zhongji Xuchuang, Runze Technology, Poly Development, Zhongchao Holdings, Longxin Technology, Xinyi Sheng, Kweichow Moutai, and Wolong Nuclear Materials [3][4]

Group 1 - The total margin financing balance of A-shares reached 27,249.13 billion yuan on January 22, increasing by 38.90 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.62% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The margin trading volume on the same day was 2,686.14 billion yuan, which is an increase of 78.01 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 9.88% of the total A-share trading volume [1] Group 2 - Among the 31 primary industries, 18 sectors experienced net financing inflows, with the electronics sector leading at a net inflow of 1.749 billion yuan [3] - Other sectors with significant net financing inflows include telecommunications, non-bank financials, and basic chemicals [3] Group 3 - A total of 53 individual stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with China Ping An leading at a net inflow of 658 million yuan [3] - Other notable stocks with high net financing inflows include Zhongji Xuchuang, Runze Technology, Poly Development, Zhongchao Holdings, Longxin Technology, Xinye Technology, Kweichow Moutai, and Wolong Nuclear Materials [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to cyclical challenges, but with ample unrecognized resources and high-quality land reserves gradually being recognized, there is potential for significant profit elasticity once the cycle stabilizes [2][7] - The company remains the industry leader in sales, with proactive investment expansion and a focus on optimizing land reserve quality [2][7] - The expectation of policy easing amid cyclical pressures suggests a potential valuation recovery for this state-owned enterprise [2][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 308.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.03 billion yuan, down 79.5%. The non-recurring net profit was 630 million yuan, down 85.2% [7][8] - The company’s sales amounted to 253 billion yuan, a decline of 21.7%, with a sales area of 12.35 million square meters, down 31.2%, and an average price of 20,500 yuan per square meter, up 13.9% [7][8] - The company successfully issued 8.5 billion yuan in convertible bonds with a low coupon rate of 2.20%, reflecting strong investor confidence in its value [7][8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.2 billion yuan and 1.8 billion yuan in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 65x and 43x [7][8] - The company is actively optimizing its land reserve structure and has increased its land acquisition budget to 79.1 billion yuan, up 15.9% [7][8]